danfrodo

hopefully it will make every AD battery in crimea trigger-happy and lots of RU air assets will become ground assets

I saw a projection of the nuclear plume that would come from the nuke plant, going N/NE and into Poland. I hope Poland is warning Putin that he will be facing the Polish military in Ukraine if he decides to poison them. Putin is desperate already and will become increasingly so as he tries to find his way out of the mess he made. So we could be in for a wild ride. Hopefully he is being warned that escalation on his end will bring escalation from those affected. And he will only escalate if he thinks it can help, so knowing it will make things worse will hopefully work.

Heck yes, hit 'em across the border. RU thinks it has safe haven for stockpiling shells that land on Kharkiv, good to start taking that away.

Hostemel was 6 months ago. I think it's been long enough to call it 'history' and thus it's not 'ghoulish' to publish. 'course, given how badly my last CMBS scenario went, I am probably just asking to be embarrassed. I actually just went back to CMFI to hopefully regain my lost honor.

@JominiW Replying to @JominiW 10/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Russian & Ukrainian artillery are engaged in a duel to cause maximum damage to command posts, critical infrastructure, supply & ammo depots, key lines of communication, and air defense systems ahead of a highly anticipated ZSU counteroffensive. #Kherson (above from AKD post) THis is what I wanna see. UKR forcing RU to burn through it's arty ammo, knowing it can't get replace w the bridges out.

AKD -- what is ZSU?? I love it when jomini clearly states russian & ukraine then uses some acronym to say one side is attacking. I am guessing ZSU is Ukraine?

Anyone got any news from the front today? Other than more RU rockets being used as terror weapons on congested cities?

OMG that is awful. I am guessing the press gang is paid per new fodder-man and also has quotas that must be filled.

A side note on the ongoing discussion. What does the UKR war mean for the politics of EU-western countries? We see autocratic/fascist elements on the rise over the last decade. Hopefully this will remind folks what autocracies look like. I have been thinking that the current times will be called by historians "The Second Age of Fascism". The question for us poor slobs living right now is whether that age is ending or just beginning. Maybe the downfall or weakening of Putin can help stop the slide into fascism, as a big source of fascist propaganda and 5th column stuff would lose funding.

Maybe true, maybe not. Interesting possibility, though. For now I am sticking w my current afghan belief: Biden knew it for what it was, a lost cause that was getting increasingly ridiculous (arms being sold/given to enemy, deals by local commanders w enemy, etc). And I'll also take him at his word that he wasn't 'going to kick this can down the road to the next president' (paraphrase). Either way, he did lead the call that "crazy f-ing Putin is actually going to attack you at any moment, get your s-t together ASAP!" And now we have the world's biggest trouble maker drowning in an endless war that is destroying his military & his economy while making him an international pariah -- so he's basically destroying his own power. I do so love this aspect of it. Even many of the IT hackers he needs to do cyber war have realized they are better off working for the west and have fled. You couldn't make this stuff up it's so amazing.

Now that is efficiency. Multi-million dollar tank destroyed by $100 munition dropped by drone that cost a few thousand dollars and survives the encounter to drop more cheap things on expensive things. That is beeeeyuuuuteeeeful.

Maybe the US decision making is being done in a competent way w set of experts debating options toward a specific goal -- supporting UKR and defeating RU while not widening the war. There's a set of folks (joint chiefs, defense chief, state chief) that take in all this and come up w a joint recommendation, laying out pros & cons, for which Biden signs off w or w/o some additions/subtractions. Basic organizational competence is a mystery? This level of organized support doesn't happen by accident. It's the outcome of competent, professional management.

Also sounds like a great way to pull RU airpower into a trap. Which I hope is what is happening w the WarMonitor report posted by DanCA above. Secretly mass a bunch AD then show RU a mech force to attack, as RU probably expects. Maybe UKR air force also jumps in on it.

Now that I've thought about Perun video and TheCapt's response, things are more clear to me (clearer? more cleary?). Tt's not as bad as it first seemed after watching Perun. 1. Perun is doing a lot of math about armor. But armor hasn't been a deciding factor in this conflict so far -- it's better than not armored, but not crucial. 2. Perun mentions RU advantage in arty tubes. But RU artillery intensity & effectiveness has dropped significantly over last couple months. UKR artillery systems are playing outsized role in degrading RU capabilities. Also, UKR systems are much more accurate, so don't need so many tubes nor as many shells nor as much tube wear & tear. 3. Perun mentions the UKR issue of having so many kinds of vehicles and wishes UKR had just one or a few basic IFVs. This is of course a mess, logistically. But the flip side of this is that UKR vehicles fleet (tanks, APC, IFV) are generally becoming newer while RU is getting older. I say this while aware that some vehicles, like M113s, are not new. But all those MRAPS are. And a lot of the T72 variants coming in from eastern europe are relatively new. But RU is going backwards in time at fast clip and doesn't seem to have supply of new stuff. RU has a logistics mess also in the fact that their old stuff is often very unreliable. As TheCapt mentioned, UKR can't mass because of RU artillery & lack of surprise. So a big pile of armor might be more of a target of opportunity for RU than a schwerpunkt for UKR. And the above is just at the tactical level, mostly. At the strategic level RU's economy is going downhill pretty fast. UKR economy is awful also, but they are fighting for survival so the whole mindset is completely different.

now I feel better So maybe once UKR has sufficient trained, highly mobile infantry backed up by sufficient artillery and AD, that's mostly what they need given the nature of the battlespace? Is that your point?

well Perun does put things in perspective. UKR short on mechanized equipment seems to be a big issue. Aragorn has been right, we've been perhaps a bit overoptimistic though that optimism seems like it will come true, just at longer timescale than we'd like.

The above statement says a lot more than it says -- meaning if Ukraine can afford to be cautious, let alone ultra cautious, then Ukraine has operational and strategic initiative. When you don't have the initiative, you can't be cautious because you have to react to your opponents actions else you lose important territory/forces/LOCs. This says a lot about how ineffective RU forces are at this point, overall. And maybe the coming week we'll see UKR bite the bullet and fight to take ground? Can't wait to watch Perun's new video, linked by OldSarge above. That might give us more insight into just what UKR actually has to throw into the fight.

This is some good news this morning (pacific coast time). 1. LongLeftFlank is back. A weary world rejoices. I don't always agree w him but the world is a richer place w his posts. 2. Kherson bridge is falling down, falling down. AD tries to intercept but we see lots of explosions at bridge and possible span falling. That is more like it. The Crimea attack is all good fun, but UKR still needs to take back its territory, starting w kherson. 3. looks like more & more armored cars making it to UKR forces. Not as good as AFVs but might provide ability to move significant forces quickly around various sectors of the front, allow UKR to steal marches on RU. AFVs w tracks would not be able to make large road moves w/o wearing down tracks -- and roads. 4. I am still worried about what RU will do as UKR partisan activity increases. Collective punishment is what I am betting -- not that they aren't already doing some of that.

well well well, maybe Huba gets his gold star after all. What if UKR moved a significant force to that sector and is able to make some major gains, maybe get Kharkiv out of arty range, maybe get back to the border. Then when RU arty receives CB fire, it will be on its own soil. I get that this is unlikely, but I believe in the visions of the Exalted Huba, knower of things.

good point, dirty bomb not tac nuke. but is WMD & nuclear and can spread radiation beyond battlefield. I think it's becoming more & more evident that an RU defeat needs to happen sooner rather than later, w hope of Putin falling w it.

I wonder how, or if, western countries will comment/act on this. Purposely targeting a nuke plant is basically cheap way for RU to do tactical nuke. International community needs to take strong stance against RU doing this.

lucky lucky lucky dude. Out of the war and unharmed. Hopefully one day he will take back stories of how well he was treated, dispelling myths in at least his own little circle of RU. Meanwhile: It's been a couple weeks since the Great Pisky Offensive began, and at the time I said it was a real time test of RU offensive capabilities. I think we can safely declare that the 'RU spent' camp is the winner. Even if RU does take Pisky soon, it took weeks to capture this one little spot on the map, which is only one of a dozen little spots on the way to Bakhmut, let alone Slovyansk. Brilliant RU propaganda at work again: Post above by Beleg85 saying Medvedev threatens nukes over loss of visas. Another post had threats to EU nuclear power plants. And these are the people in the higher offices in RU? Even threatening nuclear sabotage/sabotage could be grounds for NATO escalation, let alone restrict visas. If I've got a nuclear plant, the last thing I now want to do is let a bunch of RU nationals into my country.

That's the kind of thing that would be in some kind of joke about corruption, yet there it is. Too fun. But great point on how easy it would be to bribe in such a corrupt system. Or maybe the guards were conscripted men that don't want to be occupied by russia. Or both.

SOF is certainly the best movie material. Assuming it is SOF, it's interesting the charges went off during the day. So they would've been confident the bombs wouldn't be found. Daytime was certainly excellent for maximum propaganda effect. I do still wonder about RU finding scapegoats and doing crackdowns on civilians.

I suppose those are officially going to be called suicides? Wouldn't want the world to think Ukraine can kill this many high ranking officers in such a short time. So UKR has had some good fun with the long range hits, and hopefully those will keep coming, spreading panic in lots of rear areas. But sooner or later they need to actually take Kherson. I wonder how the RU supply situation is for the Kherson region? If there's not much fighting RU won't run out of ammo, so sooner or later need to push. When?? Reducing RU airpower certainly makes that day sooner.