danfrodo

Hats off to the UK. Now if only the gun on the warrior would just fire faster...

Wow, a million views, that's great. And to those lurking about and might be interested, I just noticed that Combat Mission Cold War is on sale 30% off on Slitherine! CM stuff rarely goes on sale so get it while it's hot. Back on subject: What is the deal w the contractor nowadays? I've seen reports of 3 months contracts, etc, and soldiers w contracts expiring. If RU simply not letting them leave when their contracts are done? I suppose for LPR/DPR folks there's no rights whatsoever -- good choice wanting to be part of Putin's Russia for those that were pro-separation from Ukraine. Good call for sure. EDIT: CM Black Sea 30% off also on Slitherine.

Folks are calling Kaliningrad a blockade. My understanding is that it is not a blockage. Lithuania simply refuses to allow cross border traffic. Am I correct in this assertion? And I sure would like to see more UKR pressure on the Popasne & Izyum salients. As relatively weak as RU is offensively, seems UKR can't (choosing not to?) do any better yet.

and totally off subject.... rebuilt vintage Land Rovers https://www.bishoprook.com/ Back on subject: Has anyone noticed that the FIRMS data seems to generally show more fires/artillery strikes on the russian sides of the lines? Locally the russians will unleash but it seems they are not outgunning UKR. And meanwhile here we are in mid-june, wondering when/if Ukraine can mount a significant enough offensive(s) to cause local collapse and force RU to pull forces out of Izyum/Popasne/Lysychansk. And now Scholz is sounding like Biden -- I like this a lot! I hope the actions match the words. Will Macron's poor showing the parliamentary election mean he is now less able to support Ukraine -- anyone know? So despite some small but painful setbacks, I suppose overall things are still trending in Ukraine's direction.

If someone sent longer range rockets, like tochka (sp?), I suspect that country(s) might want quiet. But UKR is suddenly hitting deeper targets much more often it seems.

good point, though very easy to kill them via lack of medical care once the body is penetrated by dirty, nasty metal or severely burned. And there's reports of poor medical care for wounded Russian soldiers. That's why I wonder about the number of total losses the russians are experiencing.

Welcome to post-reality world. That is sick beyond belief. But seems some good news: Huba and Beleg85 report UKR advance toward Melitopol. Very very very interesting, I hope it continues. That could be a serious problem for Putin's plan of making new 'independent' states -- hard to do when UKR back in control of much of it.

If true we might need a gofundme for SBurke for external hard drive just to hold the file of all the known dead RU officers. Good news indeed, if true. We'll probably never know but I hope the US provided intel for this. That adds insult to injury for Putin.

Took me nearly an hour to get caught up on all the posts, great work. LLF on a roll. Some up-close to combat videos, I was surprised to see a reported within ~25mm of tank shell strike. Dude is really taking his job seriously -- and might not be long for this world. Just about every time I think I had a point to make I keep scrolling and someone has already made the point. Kherson: interesting points here, my take was already taken somewhere above but I'll see if I can summarize: Kherson is a worthy territorial goal for UKR, of course, but would be a big strategic win if they can trap and destroy/capture russian forces there. If not, then both sides will be able to reposition their troops to the east on the Melitopol axis. I do wish UKR was currently able to move down that road and then swing west, cutting off all of Kherson supplies, but not yet it seems. Some guy posts some crap some british nobody says we have to care? why? UKR talking losses, numbers all over the place. But what matters is that this fight for everyone that wants to live in a peaceful world of trade and prosperity, which Putin very much threatens. Whether UKR losses 50 or 300 a day matters in lives lost, but it certainly should not change support, since UKR supporters should already be doing everything within reason to help resoundingly defeat Putin's conquest. Lukashenko says he'll fight to protect western UKR from Polish invasion. That's like some kind of comedy skit. Though I really would like to see Lukashenko's BTGs to get the opportunity to see just what the Polish army can do. Yes, roll down that highway toward Lviv and have the Poles hit your right flank. Won't be pretty. Oh, forgot the most important point: someone has clearly taken our friend Aragorn hostage and replaced him w an imposter who is writing optimistic posts. Obviously this is an imposter and we need to activate a special ops team in The Netherlands free the real Aragorn, else we will all become too optimistic and complacent.

Thanks Dan/CA & Beleg85, good points. I see now, looking more closely at the map, that going north of Izyum they'd have to cut M103 and then go quite far to cut P79, w small river in the way. Going S of Izyum only need to cut M103 plus have river obstacle for their eastern flank. Cutting that road would be huge. RU salient would have very difficult time getting supplies from the east given near lack of road net in that direction.

I wonder why not NW of Izyum instead? Probably some terrain issues? I don't want to fight in the city, no way. I just want to unhinge RU forces via cutting supply lines.

Maybe I missed it, but it must have announced, either by Putin or Lavrov -- when is the Russian invasion of France set to occur? They are already committed to attacking Poland, the baltic states, Finland, Sweden, but according to TV pundits Russia has enough forces to add France to this. Girkin probably just trying to get the hype up for the Russian re-conquest of France. And Russia has every right to invade France based on historical precedent since France occupied Paris in 1814. Or was it 1815?

yeah, that's a good point. If RU thinks UKR is on the ropes, they'll keep pushing at way too high a cost. And we are all here thinking RU is on the ropes The one thing we do know: neither side is currently demonstrating any ability for game-changing offensive actions. If RU gets severodonetsk, it means very little strategically, nothing really changes. Then they move forces to izyum & popasne fronts and try to swallow the rest of the UKR salient. Which even if successful doesn't really change the war.

on a side note, it looks like Zelensky has access to a weight room. Dude is looking rather pumped. Probably not a bad thing for his mental health to do some lifting.

yeah, if the coup had come off as Putin had planned, the Ukrainian people would've been in for a lot of suffering. But after wrecking Putin's plans and fighting against him, he would enslave/murder the whole population now if he could.

out of likes, funny!

I have, like many here, always thought the landbridge (Melitopol axis, then turn west) was the best way to go because it could unhinge kherson w/o having to fight for the town. I'd love to be a fly on the wall to see what UKR strategists are seeing and thinking.

maybe weakness is kicking the afghan can down the road, yet again, while knowing it was hopeless. Afghan army selling weapons to taliban, horrific corruption, nearly 20 years of "we just need another 2 years to stand up the afghan army". At some point someone has to have the guts to take the political heat for getting out. If we could've fixed it, we would have after nearly 20 years and hundreds of billions of dollars. Russia would be best served by simply leaving Ukraine, but that would be too politically costly -- to just one man! It would save the rest of the country. I remember like 10 years ago I was talking to a guy at work and I said "We already know how afghan mess will end. One day we will just leave. There is no win, no lose, we will simply leave." This prediction now makes me like 2 correct for every 100 predictions. So in baseball talk I am batting 0.002, which means I should be on the lawn maintenence crew, not actually in the game.

wow, what a great bunch of posts, thanks all. I ran out of likes pretty fast. I was scrambling to get some work stuff sent out so I could then catch up on all the posts, guilt free. I singled out the quote from dan/CA above, because it really is so true. Fossil fuels drive so much of international problems and we could be doing sooooooo much better w minimal investment compared to the ongoing economic, environmental, and political costs of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are AMAZING in power, transportability, etc. But dang, the costs! Unfortunately fossil fuels, like DDT & asbestos, which were really really good at their intended use, have a rather nasty bunch of side effects. Picture Saudi Arabia & Russia w/o all that oil money -- what a beautiful world. Aragorn once again ready to ride into Ukraine! Right on, Dude! My little fantasy is that Belarus invades on the western-most N-S highway toward Lviv and Poland jumps across the border and smashes them. Hey, that sounds like a great CMBS module! I wouldn't want to play as Belarus, that's for sure. Anyway, Lukashenko falls and it starts a bigger political collapse all the way to Putin, fulfilling The Prophecy of Dan/CA. And let's remember who's at fault for this war: PUTIN. No one but PUTIN. Yeah, lots of folks could've done this or that or some other, but the reality is that this is all PUTIN. It continues because PUTIN needs to save face. He's driving his entire nation over the cliff because he can't politically afford to lose a war of choice that has no conceivable payback relative to cost -- even including all the stolen toilets. And stolen MacBooks -- they do realize those are password locked, right?

Thanks all for the excellent posts. Grigb is on a roll! Lots of good, thoughtful discussion. On the most pressing issue being discussed, I will only say that I am pro-sherman . Love those tanks, especially the curvy all-casting ones. Good looking and versatile. Nothing that 75mm gun vs some nasty MG42 in a building. Gosh, sounds like I gotta finish my CMBS campaign and get back to the western front. Markos on artillery, once again. Solid post summarizing where we are and the bigger need for ammo for the MLRS systems than getting more MLRS right now. He mentions the night vision gear we are sending, which I am sure most of you already heard. I hope that can be a difference maker in getting some RU outposts outflanked and running away. But it's June, and the nights are short, so only so much opportunity. LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/15/2104377/-Ukraine-Update-Today-s-new-weapons-announcements-are-far-more-significant-than-critics-think

yeah, what he said china's leaders seem smart enough to know that power is more economic than military for them, and others. Especially after witnessing Putin's fiasco.

on China, this all gets into the insanity of "gotta do it now, it'll be much harder later", for something that is completely a war of choice that will most likely cost 1000x more than anything that could be gained. The first problem in thinking is that they gotta do it. Why? why take taiwan? I get nationalism & all that, but it's just so very stupid. And so, it will probably happen.

thanks all for putting my mind right, folks. 32k dead seemed reasonable until I thought about what that would mean for total-loss wounded. I wish these numbers were real but as you all said, if these numbers were real there'd be nothing left.

That does seem odd. China backing the very likely loser in this mess? I was thinking they'd be ~neutral and just do whatever profited them most along the way w/o risk. Why do this? Even if Putin promised all the oil he could somehow transport, will the deal be abrogated if Putin is... abrogated?

So if 32k dead, then 4x = ~120k wounded, w say 1/2 of those not returning. That means ~90-100k soldiers total loss. What do y'all think of those numbers? More or less on wounded & wounded returning? If it is 90k total loss that is pretty horrific, considering many of those were the better troops w replacements generally of continually lower quality & motivation & morale. Plus 50+ colonels??? who on earth is left to run the BTGs/regiments??? And another ~BTG of armored vehicle losses in one day (given BTG not full strength).