danfrodo

Enough of this use blather LLF. It's time for you to put your money on the table: what do you see happening in Ukraine over the next month or so? You seem to do a good job of looking at multiple sources, what do you think is coming? (I only use dailykos summaries because they are pretty good aggregation of info and I can get a good daily update in one place) My take: I think that the bad soldiers + bad logistics + bad command will lead to some sectors being very weak and they'll collapse under pressure, as sick/untrained/hungry/demoralized/unmotivated conscripts run away. Maybe this is happening now along Svatove front. The only thing saving RU is the mud. RU defense lines will be very strong in some areas but if the flanks collapse it's just worthless. Germans saw this in WW2, where they just couldn't man a proper front. They'd have some areas that withstood all comers, but then other sectors would collapse leading to crisis. I think RU is going to be losing badly between now & February.

Svatove news: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/24/2143606/-Ukraine-update-The-battle-for-Svatove-approaches-as-Ukraine-reportedly-liberates-four-more-villages Meanwhile Denys Davydov reports that UKR counterattacking around Bakhmut.

Hah! Take that Comrade GeorgeMC! I knocked out the three guns that had my drive completely stalled. So let's run a couple halftracks full speed down the road I already know is clear because I've already sent a little infantry that way. What could go wrong? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO there's more guns! Two more at least! and I have no eyes on them. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Curse you GeorgeMC! Yer killin me! Not showing more because I don't want to spoil the scenario by giving much info. I ran one hannomag forward and it got hit. I thought it was from one of the known guns and I just figured I hadn't fully knocked it out. So blastered that position w more mortars, for sure it had to be gone. Ran second hannomag and it got knocked out also, which was when I realized the shot came from a couple hundred meters from the known gun. Also found another gun in another location that could cause me trouble as I move toward the second bridge, but again no eyes on it. Now I gotta get command units w binoculars and radios into position to find these devils and then get some mortars or arty on them. This will take a lot of time. In the meantime I think I'll push small infantry units through the kill zone. Maybe the second bridge will can be taken by infantry only? We'll find out.

So it looks like UKR is now counterattacking on the Bakhmut front. Seems getting all one's soldiers chewed up and expending all your arty ammo on pointless attacks w heavy losses might leave one open to a counter thrust. Go figure.

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(don't say anything about Carlson & his viewers, don't do it, don't do it, let it go.......). Whew, that was close. And back on the war: I was thinking today about what Xmas will be like for people in Ukraine. Then I wondered if Putin would launch a big missile attack that day and I am thinking that sounds just like something he would do. Hopefully instead some folks will choose that day to hang a new decoration off a lamppost in red square. Ok, one Carlson statement: criticizing Carlson's words is not partisan. It's basic morality and humanity and reality.

While there's a rather popular thread here about how evil Putin is wrecking the world, I think we also need to recognize another evil force in our world: GeorgeMC, maker of devious, nasty, wehrmacht-wrecking CMRT battles. I'm fighting away on Rakow scenario, big battle. I am determined to win -- this time it's personal! "None shall pass" says evil GeorgeMC! I had slipped 4 or 5 halftracks thru this spot. It's under enemy gun observation from ~1700m but it's a tiny kill zone window between buildings and trees. So there's no way he could hit my tank as it sprints through here to get to better position. Right? What could go wrong? Yet......dammit another long range first shot kill by Annie Oakleyovich on that damn gun! But at least the guns are finally spotted. And once spotted can be killed w mortars or artillery, though takes forever. This guy thinks he's going to be telling his grandchildren about all the german tanks he knocked out. Just a matter of time, Ivan. You're not gonna see tomorrow. And just in case the mortars don't do the trick, I've got an infantry/halftrack attack from ~300m that will coincide w the mortar rounds. And so we wait in the (thankfully unobserved) parking lot until I can silence all these guns. And best of all, my units are finally all over the bridge, many of which had to run an artillery gauntlet on the way. I've got 1.5 hours left. My infantry scouts are reporting that at least half way to the second bridge looks to be open once the AT guns are gone. But what about a counterattack? I've lost a lot of Pz4s and these troops don't have a lot of panzerfausts so I might end up being overrun by T34s in the end. I will set some Pz4 ambush areas up to hopefully hold on to my bridges. My first priority is getting that second bridge.

Somehow I missed these when posted last week. Absolutely epic. I am hoping those smoke columns are from the other guys?

Great video AKD, thanks for sharing. Really shows life on the front lines in cold, wet weather.

Ah, this clarifies my thinking greatly, DanCA. Putin is unintentionally running an experiment to see just how far he can push russian society until it breaks (meaning, breaks Putin). There's been previous experiments but the conditions were very different so they don't tell us as much as one would think. The number of casualties considered 'acceptable' in WW1 was certainly higher while communication, education, etc were much lower and the economy and people's expectations were vastly different. As Steve has said, all the conditions for a tipping point are there but we won't know we've reached it until it actually tips. And much thanks to Harmon Rabb for the Xmas tree pick and his thoughts. We had heavy freezing rain here last night so can't leave the house w/o falling, dog can't even do it. But the electricity is on and it will all be melted by dawn tomorrow. In Urkraine it's bad weather plus no electricity and it won't all be gone by tomorrow. Meanwhile, some news from the front in the summary below. Seems the grinding progress on Svatove-Kremmina front continues to grind forward, slowly. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/23/2143459/-Ukraine-update-Russia-sends-all-forces-in-Svatove-to-the-front-lines-as-Ukraine-presses-closer

dammit dammit dammit. Now I gotta shake hands, smile warmly and say thank you to both McConnell and Grassley? WTF is going on??? Ohhhhhh, this how our gov't is supposed to work, been so long I forgot -- Folks working together across party lines to do the obvious right thing, both morally and for US/world interests. This is great news that two very powerful GOPers are putting their weight behind supporting Ukraine.

I just checked weather for melitopol & kharkiv. Above freezing every day for a week. I think this is the only thing saving RU from getting severe defeats and local/sector collapse. dammit.

Can't stand that feller, but if he were standing here right now I'd shake his hand and thank him for doing the right thing.

All the more reason for us to do everything possible to help Ukraine win ASAP. A bloody slog does no one any good. RU military collapse leading to at least recovery of Feb22 borders could provide basis for war to end. be even better if UKR got crimea and some/all of Donbas, but Feb22 seems the minimum that would allow this war to end. Then UKR starts building an army RU won't ever be able to mess with again.

That is so utterly F-ed up. "I'll go kill innocent Ukrainians so grandpa can buy sausage". One might ask "why is russia so messed up that this old guy is so poor?". Of course the answer is that ukrainians caused all russia's problems.

Murz: Yes, the russian interim military goals of losing Kharkiv & Kherson were certainly met, along w getting thousands of mobiks killed for nothing around Bakhmut. And the cost? Setting your nation's economic growth back a generation and needing another generation at least to bring it up to modernity? -- a small price to pay. THis guy is really making some sense.

That's a great phrase for getting my thoughts together. A cascade of damage that leads to ineffective combat response leading to local collapse then broader collapse. This is my great hope. And w a gazillion sherman tanks that were mostly stuck doing nothing due to terrain, why not?

Playing single scenario Rakow. 3 hours time limit, huge map, lots of movement w lots of units, so takes a while. I am just under the 2 hour mark and making progress. George MC is very proud of his evil schemes to thwart my progress but I am making gains. Here's a couple shots: Pz4 smoke shells screen advancing hannomags and their infantry passengers. Bottleneck and subsequent traffic jam over a bridge. Always a scary situation when there's russian artillery in play. Fortunately he's managed to miss his opportunities as I've cleared the congested areas before the slow russian response can hit me. Recon by death. Ordered halftrack w just driver to see what happened when moving into the open. Russian gunners used it for target practice. But I still can't see the offender. Trying to get eyes on the RU AT asset that hit the halftrack. Where the hell is this devil?? Currently working to keep all my strung out units moving forward, safely. Meanwhile moving up more infantry to try to locate russian AT guns that are keeping my point units from advancing further (could be tanks? but I think I'd see the tanks, being harder to hide).

This is all very damning for RU capabilities but doesn't even include the elephant in the room: IT'S WINTER. Some RU troops have proper clothing, shelter, etc. But lots don't. And when the ground freezes we're back to sectors where all the above issues are at play plus sick, weakened, demoralized rabble expected to hold ground under attack by angry, motivated, well armed, real soldiers. That's the thing about a front. If it's weak some places, it's weak in all places unless the enemy is heavily channeled due to terrain, like right now w mud.

NYTimes reports that UKR officials clarifying their belief on RU winter offensive. It makes more sense now that they are saying it will be massed infantry attacks. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/18/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-winter.html Which gets back to a point I made yesterday that Putin would've think twice about killing millions of russians if it meant he could get some kind of victory out of this disaster. Hopefully at some point russian powerbrokers or the russian population will rise up against this kind of butchery of their own. But we've all been hoping that for 10 long months, sadly.

Hey Girkin, Ya might start w ending the pointless and bankrupting war ya f-ing idiot. Restructuring the government won't magically turn the steaming manure pile into gold. There is nothing that is now being fought over that will yield 0.1% in profit relative to the cost of this war of choice. All these people think that the only problem is how the war is being conducted, not the fact that the war itself is the problem.

I guess carrying around all that money makes one prone to falls. So sad. But one has to wonder why Putin ordered this (yes, I am assuming he did). Was this guy talking to other tycoons about needing to end Putin's reign of stupid?

Summary from Mark Sumner (dailykos) today. Nothing ground breaking, but does report continued small gains for UKR on Svatove-kremmina front. As most of you know, the road net is mostly north-south in this area, and w mud it's tough to move east for UKR. Also he provides more summary of the NYTimes article mentioned in above posts, for those stuck by paywall. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/17/2142397/-Ukraine-update-Putin-s-war-may-be-destroying-Ukrainian-cities-but-it-s-killing-the-Russian-nation

I have no doubt that if it meant saving his own skin there's no amount of other dead people that would faze Putin. And if it meant getting some kind of a win out of this war, I am sure he'd not blink at sacrificing several million russians, provided his own skin was also saved. Hitler in the bunker didn't kill himself to save Germany more suffering. He had simply run out of options. If sacrificing another million germans to save his own skin for another year would've worked he would've chosen that without a second thought.