danfrodo

This does sound like it's as much about personal political prestige as much as anything else when I see that quote. I wonder what cost wagner is paying for this and whether that will lead to consequences for them.

This video is exactly why my blood boils at the allies not sending more AFVs earlier. UKR using a dang supply truck as a MG platform. If that were a marder or a bradley or a stryker it'd be 10x better.

So tanks aint dead it seems. Having mobile, protected firepower matters after all. Would be nice if the defenders had a bunch of AFVs w autocannons at least. I would like to see all the UKR forces have some mobile firepower in support to help thwart these wave attacks.

Damn, now that's a good post. Great point that wagner relies on supplies from folks in moscow that wagner does not control.

If Russia doesn't have a big crime spree soon it will run out of wagnerites.

I am more in line with this kind of thinking. Putin IS the gov't. Like other dictators, he rules by division -- keeping all the other power brokers in competition w each other, like hitler did. Each one always trying to undermine the others to get a little more power and no trust between them. There is no succession plan. If Putin chose a successor, that person would necessarily need to have access to the levers of power in the event of Putin's demise. Which means the successor would have everything to gain by killing Putin and is therefore a constant threat to Putin himself. Dictators stay in power by making sure no one has the immediate ability to control all the powers needed to take complete control of the gov't. The death of Putin would lead to a struggle for power. The only way it doesn't go to serious violence is if enough power brokers decide to back one player, which could happen, though not without a number of balcony falls.

Yeah, that's a big part of my belief that UKR can make big gains once the mud ends, either w freeze or in late spring. I believe that this 600km line has big sections that are manned by very poor quality soldiers that would fold up quickly w/o artillery support. And I believe UKR will hit those sections hard, unhinging stronger sections of the line as they are bypassed or cut off.

that is the best post I've seen in ages, well played

Ah yes, good point. Giving RU hope of a big breakthrough at Soledar in order to draw lots of resources there, that would be classic UKR trick. But we will see over the next couple weeks what this actually mean.

So sky is falling? (joking) As was mentioned in this forum many times, UKR is working a flexible defense and can bend a lot w/o creating a crisis. In RU world this will be the equivalent to taking the reichstag, of course, but I don't see how it matters much. Especially if it allows UKR to do some counter punches to cause heavy RU losses, even if RU does retain the town.

There's an easy test. Just yell "we're under attack!" If the yard gnome wets its pants and flees, it's Kadyrov.

What do y'all think of this? Are we happy? Do we like strykers for UKR? I have used them a lot in CMBS. They are better than M113s & pickup trucks for sure, but what big advantages do we expect to get from these? What firepower packages would be sent??

In his experience, 15% would be a true thing. He probably thinks the rest of the world works like his world. he aint no highly educated, worldly genius. But dang he has the whole yard gnome thing down.

Well, this is interesting. This feller makes case that Germany is actually doing a really good job of supporting Ukraine, and backs it up w data. I have no dog in this fight so glad to see there's lots of info about Germany's support that I hadn't thought of before. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/9/2146199/-Ukraine-update-Germany-has-done-more-for-Ukraine-than-most-know-or-acknowledge

And what can Putler do? Seems all he can do is have more mobiks digging & manning more trenches.

While I am, of course, utterly thrilled at the prospect of challenger2 & leo2 going to UKR, I suspect this will take more time than for the bradelys, marders, & AMX10RCs. Given UKR tactics I'd say the AFVs plus AMX10 could help quite a bit in the shorter term. We've all seen videos of UKR attacking w M113s & HUMMVs, fast infiltration & assault to grab a position. One question I do have is how well the AMX10's 105mm gun could do against a T72 or T80, w & w/o ERA. Any of you armor vets or modern tank grognards have any insight into this? I get that the RU tank gun kills the AMX10 every time, but wondering how the AMX10 does if it can hit first.

I gotta chime in on a few items, just to summarize for myself: 1. Intent for any given RU soldier is irrelevant. Whether he's actually a peacenik who hates the war or whether he's a murderous monster, if he's part of the RU army he's an existential threat to UKR and is open to being killed w/o warning. If he's actually a peacenik who was forced into it, then he's a victim of Putin's war, like so many of all armies. If he's a warmonger, then he got what he deserved. But it's all irrelevant. If he's a threat he is open to being killed. Intent doesn't matter. Surrender or be killed, and sadly many of the ones that want to surrender never get the chance. 2. Supplying better NATO weapons has become an absurdity, with everyone dancing around while UKR burns. Send the dang things. At this point it should be clear to everyone that the only way to end this is for UKR to win back enough territory that it can then negotiate. And to do this it needs better weapons. What kind of fool thinks doing an assault w M113s is the best we can provide? Bradleys, marders, AMX10, leo2s -- the increase in firepower for a given company-sized assault would be increased 10x w those weapons -- and given that UKR will probably be facing lots of RU mobiks, it needs firepower to overcome mass. Given the delay in training, shipping, logistics, etc, this should've been done 6 months ago. 3. Russian 'strategy' is driven by desperation to get some kind of 'win'. The latest incarnation of this is to try to freeze things as they are now, w the landbridge being the 'win'. But it's all desperation, like was said by TheCapt: they are trying various things in the hopes that somehow the will of UKR & allies will fail and stalemate will become permanent.

Thanks for joining in the conversation, excellent post! This is a great point (above), and one that I think most folks on this forum think about a lot. We seem like an echo chamber right now but we are an evidence-based echo chamber. And the evidence keeps piling up to support the general belief here that RU is a flippin' mess. Still dangerous, but a mess. When RU puts together a new offensive I'll be happy to re-think my estimation or RU strength. They are strong enough to hold trenches when there's horrific mud to stop UKR. That's all we know about RU capabilities right now. And I'd say UKR has won some very very important things: first, they have not become a vassal state of RU -- they have won their sovereignty & freedom which they could've lost had Putin won. They've won back a huge bunch of territory: Kyiv area, Kharkiv area, Kherson. Keep your thoughts coming. I hadn't thought about your point that any mobiks who've survived so far are getting better at soldiering (the hard way).

I think you might be misunderstanding what I meant. I was just saying this war is about one man; he can stop this at any time. If it were about what's good for Russia, he would stop the war because it is clearly ruinous. Therefore, he is putting his person above his country. That's all I meant.

I think this is completely a single man war. Putin pushed, planned, and ordered the attempted coup/invasion. Then, as mentioned by someone above, he just keeps doubling down because he thinks it's personally more dangerous for him to end the war. Obviously what he's doing is causing generational (multi generational?) damage to his country, so it's certainly not being waged for the benefit of Russia. This war is about nothing more than Putin fearing for his own stinking, filthy, worthless life.

I think the trucks are the key. Not to destroy them, but to follow the little bees back to the hive (ammo cache). I am hoping that satellite imagery can help us to do this? Or high altitude drones? In the landbridge maybe even partisan spies?

I just watched latest video from the chieftain about the US army's new MPF (mobile protected firepower) vehicle. It's expressly intended for infantry support. It's got a 105mm gun so clearly not intended to slug it out w RU tanks, though I suppose the 105 could at least cause some damage if it could see/shoot/hit first in an engagement. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdPmpidUbWo The reason I mention it in this thread is that this is the role I was thinking of for the AMX10-RC. Just the thing for blasting at RU strongpoints in a defense line or in buildings. Having smaller, cheaper big gun platforms for infantry support seems like a good idea to me. STUG life goes on. The MBF weight is ~42 tons, so lighter than NATO MBTs but about the same as a T72. By the way, can fit two MBF in a US transport aircraft. That is really good. In an emergency, could push in part of the 82nd plus a dozen or so of these and have a pretty solid force.

I am betting Putin has put millions of $ into an account somewhere for this hunk of filth. Maybe also has some compromising information on him. One thing Putler is good at is bribing and/or extorting people.

Maybe, maybe not. There's two main factors that can explain current stalemate: mobilization and mud. IMO mud is bigger factor for last two months. Mobilization helps but I'm still not convinced they will not fold up in lots of local sectors once pressured, leading to cascading crises along bigger sectors. Mobiks w massive arty support probably are good enough. But w the increasing shell shortage?

Interesting. I wonder if this will play out like the other recent RU gains. RU pushes, takes big losses, gets pushed back a little and is too spent for another push.