danfrodo

Dang it, now I have to hate him less. But I gotta give credit where credit is due, so here goes: THANK YOU, MITCH.

So a bunch of already violent traumatized inmates are sent to front for further trauma, subjagation & oppression, and are then set free in russian society. Seems like a good plan. The only better idea would be to let them take home their AKs.

wow, great stuff as always, Zeleban. So I have been assuming UKR lack of offensive is due mostly to mud. But maybe UKR is simply "not interrupting the enemy when he's making a mistake"? Maybe UKR has high enough advantage in casualties that it's better to kill RU in the open for now so he'll be weaker later?

Those of us excited about western AFVs of all sorts maybe aren't just stupid World of Tanks players, perhaps? Unless the UKR army command is same sort of stupid? They are asking for this stuff also, screaming for it. If this war goes into 2024 would you rather fight it w T64/72/BMP or w bradleys & Leo2s & abrams? We continually see UKR forces attacking w HUMMVs & MRAPs -- is that all just fine because we have great ISR & drones & precision arty? The ISR & precision is UKR critical advantage but they still need to actually fight for and hold ground w minimum of casualties. Kharkiv offensive was against a severely weakened front that basically had nearly nothing there. Kherson was difficult because enemy was well prepared. Kreminna/Svatove are also difficult, though mud maybe biggest factor. We all get that it will take time to get the systems (crews, unit training, logistics, maintenence) in place. But guess what? August & September are things that will most probably happen. Dropping grenades on mobiks from drones is lovely, but sooner or later that trench has to be taken. And there's gonna be lots more mobiks. Lots more. I remember some hack CEO in ~2006 we had saying "3d printing? that could take 5 years to pay off!". As if 5 years won't ever happen.

On UKR's lack of punching elsewhere, I am still thinking it's the dang mud? Option B is that UKR is actually weaker than we think. Option C is that UKR is waiting for RU to further degrade its artillery shell stockpiles? I dunno. I still think it's probably the mud.

I can picture an interesting debate on this. One side says why fight bloody attritional battle here? Other side says if we retreat we'll just be fighting same bloody attritional battle at the next town and there's too much mud for any major offensive right now and we're killing tons of RU guys.

Is real? as in not some older video? Do you think it's recent?

I don't see tank-tank battles as being the main advantage. The infantry needs support to beat up contested defensive positions full of mobiks, so I think infantry support will be the main usage. Sometimes the infantry needs to be able to counter RU IFVs & tanks. yes, they can do this with ATGMs but having some tanks in overwatch provides both infantry support and keeps the enemy armor at bay -- tanks & good IFVs will keep fighting when mortars & arty are landing while the infantry w ATGMs will be suppressed (or worse). I think it will keep attacks moving forward w alacrity.

May be bigger news than the tanks, oh my. If UKR has increasing artillery superiority RU is in serious trouble.

We should all learn from Der Zeitgeist, who throughout all this noise stayed calm and basically said "it'll happen, just be patient". Many of us, like me, were losing our minds and it's clear we should've just been more patient.

great news! Now the question I have is what do we expect these to provide once in battle in May/June? My perception is that there's much better survivability. Much better optics. So in an actual fight I'd expect that these would have some higher chance of surviving ATGM or tank hit than the current T64/72/80s. Also I'd expect the better spotting to play a big role in getting ordnance onto targets quickly and thereby reducing the amount of incoming ATGM/tank fire. Do y'all think these perceptions are true? I understand that these aren't wonder weapons. I just wonder how much better a combined arms attack would be w these as compared to current soviet tanks.

This all gets back to having some kind of cohesive approach to getting UKR the tools it needs to push RU off its land and 'end' this mess w/o RU profiting. Whether its abrams or leo2s, all the parties should be discussing what makes the most sense and then throwing everything into that effort, whether that's providing tanks or giving money to help the effort. Sholz throws a wrench into this, for whatever f-ing reason, but hopefully we'll get past that ASAP. But whatever we do needs to be in place for May/June offensives. This constant dithering just keeps the war going longer, and the longer the war goes the more trouble it causes for UKR and the world.

exactamundo, as they say in Italian. Or pig latin. Or whatever. Keep the underlings all vying w each other and they aren't working together to kill you. They all have spies in each others' organizations watching for something to bring the others down -- like treason.

Yeah, if Putin gets angry he might start killing children.... oh wait, too late. This sounds more & more like corruption to me every day. So prove me wrong, Sholz, and do the right dang thing. It's just tanks, it aint long range missiles striking Rostov.

for sure . There were a lot of germans standing around in the rubble of their cities in winter of 44-45 still thinking "Hitler has a plan for final victory!", though I suspect most were no longer on the Hitler-is-a-genius bandwagon. But he survived because he built a really good security apparatus around him, despite sa couple pretty good efforts at killing him w a bomb.

I like to think Putin would not survive even getting back to Feb22 borders, let alone complete loss of stolen territory. But it's certainly possible. He's built a world that seems to be very safe from coups so far despite him running RU over a cliff for basically nothing. So I think we have to envision a world where Putin loses and Putin still leads, sadly. It's one of the possible outcomes, sadly.

And the elephant in the room, once again. TC is not on some obscure channel, he's got a huge megaphone to spew dangerous nonsense that gets people killed.

Sure, that's one possible outcome, and it's on the negative side of outcomes. There's also the outcome where RU leaders, whoever that is, decide that continuing to attack UKR et al out of spite is self defeating and they decide they want the sanctions to end. Saying "what will happen" is just a guessing game at this point. So the path forward is for UKR to get as much of its territory back as possible. Meanwhile, the world can let RU know that the sanctions will continue until RU decides to show a long period of not being a terrorist state.

I think it's more like "battle of lack of wills"

Worth its weight in gold. Soldiers unable to really get warm for weeks on end would benefit incredibly from this. Western allies should earmark money specifically for these. It's a war-winner! Hopefully RU mobiks freezing w bad food & bad clothing in muddy trenches w guns at their backs will see these videos somehow. Heck, UKR should advertise that all new RU prisoners get hot tub within 24 hours of surrendering. There'd be a stampede of white flags.

Good summary of what's happening N of Svatove, looks like some good news for UKR. The grinding goes on..... https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/22/2148632/-Ukraine-update-Why-tiny-little-Novoselivs-ke-is-so-important-to-both-Ukraine-and-Russia

OK, bradleys and leo2s are just dandy. This kind of thing is about the allies having a cohesive set of equipment to send. Things that can be maintained and can help UKR in both the short and long term. Which sounds to me like Leo2s and bradleys.

dammit, once again facts getting in the way of a good story. Dammit.

That is the most beautiful thing I've seen in ages. thx for sharing. Can't wait to see these guys on solid ground ripping up some RU strongpoint.

Yes, totally agree. The issue is that due to reluctance on allies part to put together a more cohesive set of good weapons, UKR has a hodge podge of relatively light stuff (plus any soviet tech). The problem is that UKR is fighting using MRAPS & M113s & other inferior vehicles when they could have bradleys or marders. The tanks they get don't have to be the best but they have to actually exist in theater and be operational. Sure, Leo1s. Or Leo2s. Abrams probably for 2024. We're going to see a lot of fighting against dug in infantry, sometimes w ATGMs or tanks, always w RPGs. This is going to require firepower to support the infantry and counter RU armor. There's not enough excaliburs to hit every few meters of trench, there will be fighting. I still think the mud is a big issue for now. This lets RU sit their best forces on the good roads and put schmucks watching the muddy fields. Either a long lasting cold front comes or not much occurs until ~May. But what does May look like? Could be pretty powerful mech infantry kampfgruppes attacking known weak areas and cracking the line in multiple areas, bypassing the better RU units. Then RU reacts and there's a different kind of fight, w more tanks needed. At least that's what I'm seeing. Of course, the shaping battle behind the lines is happening to facilitate all this.