danfrodo

This all gets back to having some kind of cohesive approach to getting UKR the tools it needs to push RU off its land and 'end' this mess w/o RU profiting. Whether its abrams or leo2s, all the parties should be discussing what makes the most sense and then throwing everything into that effort, whether that's providing tanks or giving money to help the effort. Sholz throws a wrench into this, for whatever f-ing reason, but hopefully we'll get past that ASAP. But whatever we do needs to be in place for May/June offensives. This constant dithering just keeps the war going longer, and the longer the war goes the more trouble it causes for UKR and the world.

exactamundo, as they say in Italian. Or pig latin. Or whatever. Keep the underlings all vying w each other and they aren't working together to kill you. They all have spies in each others' organizations watching for something to bring the others down -- like treason.

Yeah, if Putin gets angry he might start killing children.... oh wait, too late. This sounds more & more like corruption to me every day. So prove me wrong, Sholz, and do the right dang thing. It's just tanks, it aint long range missiles striking Rostov.

for sure . There were a lot of germans standing around in the rubble of their cities in winter of 44-45 still thinking "Hitler has a plan for final victory!", though I suspect most were no longer on the Hitler-is-a-genius bandwagon. But he survived because he built a really good security apparatus around him, despite sa couple pretty good efforts at killing him w a bomb.

I like to think Putin would not survive even getting back to Feb22 borders, let alone complete loss of stolen territory. But it's certainly possible. He's built a world that seems to be very safe from coups so far despite him running RU over a cliff for basically nothing. So I think we have to envision a world where Putin loses and Putin still leads, sadly. It's one of the possible outcomes, sadly.

And the elephant in the room, once again. TC is not on some obscure channel, he's got a huge megaphone to spew dangerous nonsense that gets people killed.

Sure, that's one possible outcome, and it's on the negative side of outcomes. There's also the outcome where RU leaders, whoever that is, decide that continuing to attack UKR et al out of spite is self defeating and they decide they want the sanctions to end. Saying "what will happen" is just a guessing game at this point. So the path forward is for UKR to get as much of its territory back as possible. Meanwhile, the world can let RU know that the sanctions will continue until RU decides to show a long period of not being a terrorist state.

I think it's more like "battle of lack of wills"

Worth its weight in gold. Soldiers unable to really get warm for weeks on end would benefit incredibly from this. Western allies should earmark money specifically for these. It's a war-winner! Hopefully RU mobiks freezing w bad food & bad clothing in muddy trenches w guns at their backs will see these videos somehow. Heck, UKR should advertise that all new RU prisoners get hot tub within 24 hours of surrendering. There'd be a stampede of white flags.

Good summary of what's happening N of Svatove, looks like some good news for UKR. The grinding goes on..... https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/22/2148632/-Ukraine-update-Why-tiny-little-Novoselivs-ke-is-so-important-to-both-Ukraine-and-Russia

OK, bradleys and leo2s are just dandy. This kind of thing is about the allies having a cohesive set of equipment to send. Things that can be maintained and can help UKR in both the short and long term. Which sounds to me like Leo2s and bradleys.

dammit, once again facts getting in the way of a good story. Dammit.

That is the most beautiful thing I've seen in ages. thx for sharing. Can't wait to see these guys on solid ground ripping up some RU strongpoint.

Yes, totally agree. The issue is that due to reluctance on allies part to put together a more cohesive set of good weapons, UKR has a hodge podge of relatively light stuff (plus any soviet tech). The problem is that UKR is fighting using MRAPS & M113s & other inferior vehicles when they could have bradleys or marders. The tanks they get don't have to be the best but they have to actually exist in theater and be operational. Sure, Leo1s. Or Leo2s. Abrams probably for 2024. We're going to see a lot of fighting against dug in infantry, sometimes w ATGMs or tanks, always w RPGs. This is going to require firepower to support the infantry and counter RU armor. There's not enough excaliburs to hit every few meters of trench, there will be fighting. I still think the mud is a big issue for now. This lets RU sit their best forces on the good roads and put schmucks watching the muddy fields. Either a long lasting cold front comes or not much occurs until ~May. But what does May look like? Could be pretty powerful mech infantry kampfgruppes attacking known weak areas and cracking the line in multiple areas, bypassing the better RU units. Then RU reacts and there's a different kind of fight, w more tanks needed. At least that's what I'm seeing. Of course, the shaping battle behind the lines is happening to facilitate all this.

another of my links to this feller how does some summaries. I am linking this one only because of the short video at the bottom relating to the moskva sinking -- really funny. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/21/2148454/-Ukraine-update-To-save-Ukraine-this-year-there-is-something-the-United-States-could-do-right-now

xxx

Is this area Wagner or regular army?

Anyone have any more news on alleged RU offensive actions on Zaporizhe front? Where is this happening? I am hoping RU manages to take big losses and expend lots of artillery w/o hurting UKR. Easier to kill when they come out of their holes and hopefully will make some more sectors open to counterattacks. I am still hoping for UKR to advance to Polohy and/or Tokmak. That would mess up RU supply lines quite a bit.

EXACTLY, the whole point. If we never start we never get there. And now UKR is looking at how to breach RU defenses w MRAPS & HUMMVs. Not fun. There's going to be a lot of old fashioned fighting to take back the landbridge & hopefully Starobilsk. The artillery & fancy stuff will shape the battlefield but sadly UKR will still need to take ground w boots and those boots will need armored support. That armored support can be better or it can be worse.

adding more to the frustration pile about Leo2s. But at the bottom is a nice list of what's being sent by various countries. A lot of good gear but it would be so much better if some of the items were more standardized -- like lots of marders & Leo2s, duh, which would have easier logistics & maintenence pipeline than having lots of different platforms. But there's lots of good stuff being sent, all the same. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/20/2148245/-Ukraine-update-The-Great-Tank-Standoff-is-foolish-politicians-fiddling-while-Ukraine-bleeds

This is certainly not the time to break a contract, heaven forbid!! Just because innocent civilians are murdered every day and a hundred soldiers are dying every while actually fighting for freedom. Certainly not the time to breach a contract to stop the murderfest sooner, certainly does not justify breaching a clause in a contract. The customer in this case is in the right and Germany simply needs to say OK. It's not like the checks for the tanks bounced.

I was just thinking maybe this is actually to deter internal strike. Like some RU actor trying to take out Putin who has control of some missile or air force assets.

Piling on w the weapons-to-Ukraine theme w summary below. This person seems to not be a fan of Sholz prevaricating whilst Ukrainians burn. I forgot that CV90s have nasty 40mm gun in some versions -- that would be great infantry support. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/19/2148049/-Ukraine-update-Western-nations-are-still-playing-games-Ukraine-is-still-paying-the-price

Seems like a stunt to make folks in RU think they are actually under threat by UKR, to make RU folks think this war is existential to RU survival. How absurd.

Now we're talking about something fun to speculate about. What will UKR do? Feint where & then hit where? Or pretend the first punch is a feint when it's actually the real punch, ala Normandy? Much more interesting than drone swarms which are gonna be a bit too late for this war. Tokmak is a great target, cutting the east-west rail line. Plus using the new 150km missiles to cut the two lines out of crimea. I am sure RU has stockpiled a good amount of stuff but severely interdicting new supply matters and matters a lot in an artillery heavy war. Steven mentioned above that RU managed in Kherson to get around the cutting of the bridges -- except that RU also had to flee Kherson due to the cutting the bridges as it was unsustainable.