danfrodo

another of my links to this feller how does some summaries. I am linking this one only because of the short video at the bottom relating to the moskva sinking -- really funny. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/21/2148454/-Ukraine-update-To-save-Ukraine-this-year-there-is-something-the-United-States-could-do-right-now

xxx

Is this area Wagner or regular army?

Anyone have any more news on alleged RU offensive actions on Zaporizhe front? Where is this happening? I am hoping RU manages to take big losses and expend lots of artillery w/o hurting UKR. Easier to kill when they come out of their holes and hopefully will make some more sectors open to counterattacks. I am still hoping for UKR to advance to Polohy and/or Tokmak. That would mess up RU supply lines quite a bit.

EXACTLY, the whole point. If we never start we never get there. And now UKR is looking at how to breach RU defenses w MRAPS & HUMMVs. Not fun. There's going to be a lot of old fashioned fighting to take back the landbridge & hopefully Starobilsk. The artillery & fancy stuff will shape the battlefield but sadly UKR will still need to take ground w boots and those boots will need armored support. That armored support can be better or it can be worse.

adding more to the frustration pile about Leo2s. But at the bottom is a nice list of what's being sent by various countries. A lot of good gear but it would be so much better if some of the items were more standardized -- like lots of marders & Leo2s, duh, which would have easier logistics & maintenence pipeline than having lots of different platforms. But there's lots of good stuff being sent, all the same. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/20/2148245/-Ukraine-update-The-Great-Tank-Standoff-is-foolish-politicians-fiddling-while-Ukraine-bleeds

This is certainly not the time to break a contract, heaven forbid!! Just because innocent civilians are murdered every day and a hundred soldiers are dying every while actually fighting for freedom. Certainly not the time to breach a contract to stop the murderfest sooner, certainly does not justify breaching a clause in a contract. The customer in this case is in the right and Germany simply needs to say OK. It's not like the checks for the tanks bounced.

I was just thinking maybe this is actually to deter internal strike. Like some RU actor trying to take out Putin who has control of some missile or air force assets.

Piling on w the weapons-to-Ukraine theme w summary below. This person seems to not be a fan of Sholz prevaricating whilst Ukrainians burn. I forgot that CV90s have nasty 40mm gun in some versions -- that would be great infantry support. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/19/2148049/-Ukraine-update-Western-nations-are-still-playing-games-Ukraine-is-still-paying-the-price

Seems like a stunt to make folks in RU think they are actually under threat by UKR, to make RU folks think this war is existential to RU survival. How absurd.

Now we're talking about something fun to speculate about. What will UKR do? Feint where & then hit where? Or pretend the first punch is a feint when it's actually the real punch, ala Normandy? Much more interesting than drone swarms which are gonna be a bit too late for this war. Tokmak is a great target, cutting the east-west rail line. Plus using the new 150km missiles to cut the two lines out of crimea. I am sure RU has stockpiled a good amount of stuff but severely interdicting new supply matters and matters a lot in an artillery heavy war. Steven mentioned above that RU managed in Kherson to get around the cutting of the bridges -- except that RU also had to flee Kherson due to the cutting the bridges as it was unsustainable.

laughed out loud, literally. Professional humor right there.

I am all for the suggestion from somewhere above. Just drive a few Polish Abrams over the border, sign over the titles. It's all for show, since Sholz obviously needs some kind of show for every f-ing decision. Meanwhile, more Ukrainians die every day.

That's some great news. So 150km (93 miles) is gonna be a nice disruption on the supply dumps that RU moved just out of HIMARS range. I hope they are here soon, if not already. And once again, is it any wonder UKR wants IFVs, especially bradleys? And tanks? Even once all the fancy tools significantly cut RU supply lines there are still bunches of mobiks (and real soldiers) that have to be forced out of positions. Arty & killer drones will weaken and suppress them, but still need to assault sometimes. Especially when the mobiks know if they leave their positions they'll be killed by their own side.

well said, DanCA. I am not looking super far forward. I am just looking at how UKR can get its land back. I want the whole land bridge. I want to reach Starobilsk -- be fun to see them supply their cannon fodder if that happens. That's my minimum. So I am just fixated on what it will take for UKR to achieve the above items and I think that lots of better AFVs are a big part of it (along w all the other goodies) -- oddly enough, UKR military & Zelensky seem to agree.

Totally agree w everything you said, The_Capt. All I was trying to say was that UKR still needs the firepower to get past strongpoints -- UKR won't always be able to infiltrate it's way forward. It will often have to fight through some stiff location before it will have infiltration opportunities. I am not talking of bum rush w mass armor & men. I am just talking about getting fire superiority to overcome some local, dug in defense. And UKR will lose AFVs doing this so needs lots of replacements. Doing this w MRAPS, HUMMVs & M113s sucks. Precision will definitely help, but it might not be enough to allow a free walk onto the objectives. Some of those RU guys might survive and fire back. So I am agreeing that corrosive is what will happen but there will still be nasty fights, especially in bottleneck areas that both sides know are necessary for advance. I am seeing this as a .AND. not a .OR. discussion (going some old school fortran there)

This whole discussion is confusing to me. I thought we were in a war where UKR has to overcome WW1 style dug in cannon fodder backed up by ATGMs, arty, IFVs and tanks. Yeah, RU has drones, but the actual fight to regain territory is not all that high tech. UKR needs to suppress and overrun fortified positions. Lots of positions maybe would be abandoned once outflanked, but UKR still needs to actually fight to gain lots of them. And for that they need enough Mobile Protected Firepower to locally overwhelm the enemy. Hence UKR has been screaming for months for more tanks & IFVs. UKR will lose lots of AFVs in these fights, so needs lots to start out with. Drones, ISR, etc, are super critical to gaining the advantage but sooner or later someone actually has to take positions against armed opposition.

Best of all the arrogant idiot thinks he would win all the fights he starts. Maybe his first victim will have friends and fellow citizens (allies) who would jump into the fray to help their friend? Maybe his victim does lots of crossfit or martial arts and will break him into pieces? he does seem to sum up modern RU strategic thinking rather well. edit: ooops, darnit, just saw post where a Pole provoked the Russian. Dang it, I hate it when facts get in the way of a good story.

This is just about exactly what I was thinking. "No one can be this stupid. Why wreck all the economic ties for some land full of people who hate you?" Count me in the "way wrong" column. You forgot one: - delayed CMBS new release by who knows how long. Not his biggest crime but certainly should be brought up as a charge in The Hague.

So Splinty, what do you think of bradleys for UKR? And remember option B is old soviet APCs, M113s, MRAPs or HUMMVs. Is it realistic to supply & maintain these in UKR once crews & infantry are trained to use them?

This is interesting. Battle vs the RU forces trying to take Kharkiv city center in first days of the invasion. The RU guys fought hard but the UKR guys fought harder. I bet the RU guys were convinced they were gonna be relieved if they just held out. Hello Arnhem.

New Perun for my workout today, I was just wondering what I would watch . Thx for the heads up on this. I'm interested to see if my beliefs on UKR badly needing AFVs w better firepower & survivability holds up under Perun's scrutiny.

Glad to hear you are OK, Zeleban. And let this be yet another reminder of what Putin is: A serial mass murdering child kidnapper terrorist who destroys entire cities and sends thousands of his own people to death and has threatened nuclear armageddon. All because he can't figure out how to extricate himself from his failed attempt at a coup and the subsequent subjagation of Ukraine & its people. And if left in place w a freeze of the current 'territorial realities' he'll just rebuild and start attacking again in 2025.

xxx

So what is the executive summary of what you are saying? Succinctly, what do you think UKR & it's allies should do? Like in a few sentences. Your overarching thesis is lost, for me, in between all the other stuff. I get that your biggest concern in Putin unleashing nukes, either through misunderstanding or brinksmanship or spite. But what is it you want to do?