danfrodo

So what is the executive summary of what you are saying? Succinctly, what do you think UKR & it's allies should do? Like in a few sentences. Your overarching thesis is lost, for me, in between all the other stuff. I get that your biggest concern in Putin unleashing nukes, either through misunderstanding or brinksmanship or spite. But what is it you want to do?

This is the money sentence. UKR is in a fight for survival on its own land. Putin is in a war or choice. Putin can just go home and the war is over. UKR would have to give up much of their home to end the war. Just like Germany in WW1 -- the kaiser could simply order everyone to head home. The French could not do this, the war was in France, in their home. But the kaiser felt he couldn't afford to lose face so instead chose the continued slaughter of thousands of people, hoping to pull a rabbit out of the hat while his nation was bled white and starved. And just like w the kaiser, if Putin would just go home Russia would be stronger going forward.

Thank Huba. This gets into the issue of how much logistics tail would occur per battalion and hereby how much benefit from standardizing on fewer western MBTs & AFVs. So is one battalion worth it? -- I certainly don't know. But given the ridiculous dancing around on the Leo2s it's hard to say whether these challengers might be all that's available for a while.

My current understanding is that the 10 challengers are a political stunt to say "western MBTs have already been sent to UKR" so other countries have political cover to send MBTs w/o facing accusations of 'escalation'. Do y'all think that's correct? If this achieves that goal, I am all for it. I'm looking forward to some UKR battalion-sized kampgruppes w leo2s + western AFVS making some real noise later this spring, perhaps late May?

I gotta admit, Leo2 is a really good looking tank. Especially the version w the added protection that makes the turret looks more rectangular. Bad ***.

This is a tour de force of all things beaver, and quite a very enlightening yet entertaining book. Sadly, he neglected to add a chapter on the use of beavers in military defensive works. https://smile.amazon.com/Eager-Surprising-Secret-Beavers-Matter/dp/B07DNH3J94/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3U8DB8T2RZ3IA&keywords=eager+beaver&qid=1673630387&sprefix=eager+beaver%2Caps%2C186&sr=8-1

I hope UKR got all the soldiers out. And so we all wait to see what this means. Was it just a way for UKR to get RU to expend men and (allegedly) short artillery on a relatively insignificant piece of terrain? This assumes that UKR has something better to do w its forces. Cold next couple days then back to very warm & mud. So it might be a while before we can see what, if anything, UKR has up its sleeves.

I'd like to make clear my thoughts on the western AFVs. I am not thinking UKR will lose w/o this stuff. I mainly just think UKR would have better offensive capabilities w better AFVs. Ending this war on good terms for UKR means UKR has to take defended ground and I'd much rather be in a unit w better AFVs that have the most lethality (firepower,optics) that I can get. That's w/o me including tanks like leo2s, etc, which have a much longer lead time & logistical tail.

damn you w all your facts & logic. (smiley face + thumbs up) -- since you don't like emojis. I just wants to see some bradleys shredding some baddies w their bmps & such.

Excellent points, TheCapt. but we have already flooded UKR w mountains of western equipment of varying types. And we've seen assaults going forward from HUMMVs & M113s firing 50 cals -- that is incredibly sub-optimum relative to what the west had available in large numbers. Plus all the other dozens of other different vehicles that have been sent like MRAPS, Aussie-version of MRAPS, bunches of armored cars, etc. What we're already doing is logistically complicated. What I am saying is that we could've sent large numbers of one or two kinds of much, much better AFVs 6 months ago instead of the piecemeal b--s--t we've been sending. We've got lots of bradleys that are in storage, for example. We already have the logistics mess because every mechanized unit has a different mix of stuff. It would've been better to settle and standardize on a couple AFVs early on. Then we'd only have those two plus the typical soviet stuff that already exists. And going forward we'll continually wish we had done this six months previous as we watch assaults going forward w MRAPS and HUMMVs.

This does sound like it's as much about personal political prestige as much as anything else when I see that quote. I wonder what cost wagner is paying for this and whether that will lead to consequences for them.

This video is exactly why my blood boils at the allies not sending more AFVs earlier. UKR using a dang supply truck as a MG platform. If that were a marder or a bradley or a stryker it'd be 10x better.

So tanks aint dead it seems. Having mobile, protected firepower matters after all. Would be nice if the defenders had a bunch of AFVs w autocannons at least. I would like to see all the UKR forces have some mobile firepower in support to help thwart these wave attacks.

Damn, now that's a good post. Great point that wagner relies on supplies from folks in moscow that wagner does not control.

If Russia doesn't have a big crime spree soon it will run out of wagnerites.

I am more in line with this kind of thinking. Putin IS the gov't. Like other dictators, he rules by division -- keeping all the other power brokers in competition w each other, like hitler did. Each one always trying to undermine the others to get a little more power and no trust between them. There is no succession plan. If Putin chose a successor, that person would necessarily need to have access to the levers of power in the event of Putin's demise. Which means the successor would have everything to gain by killing Putin and is therefore a constant threat to Putin himself. Dictators stay in power by making sure no one has the immediate ability to control all the powers needed to take complete control of the gov't. The death of Putin would lead to a struggle for power. The only way it doesn't go to serious violence is if enough power brokers decide to back one player, which could happen, though not without a number of balcony falls.

Yeah, that's a big part of my belief that UKR can make big gains once the mud ends, either w freeze or in late spring. I believe that this 600km line has big sections that are manned by very poor quality soldiers that would fold up quickly w/o artillery support. And I believe UKR will hit those sections hard, unhinging stronger sections of the line as they are bypassed or cut off.

that is the best post I've seen in ages, well played

Ah yes, good point. Giving RU hope of a big breakthrough at Soledar in order to draw lots of resources there, that would be classic UKR trick. But we will see over the next couple weeks what this actually mean.

So sky is falling? (joking) As was mentioned in this forum many times, UKR is working a flexible defense and can bend a lot w/o creating a crisis. In RU world this will be the equivalent to taking the reichstag, of course, but I don't see how it matters much. Especially if it allows UKR to do some counter punches to cause heavy RU losses, even if RU does retain the town.

There's an easy test. Just yell "we're under attack!" If the yard gnome wets its pants and flees, it's Kadyrov.

What do y'all think of this? Are we happy? Do we like strykers for UKR? I have used them a lot in CMBS. They are better than M113s & pickup trucks for sure, but what big advantages do we expect to get from these? What firepower packages would be sent??

In his experience, 15% would be a true thing. He probably thinks the rest of the world works like his world. he aint no highly educated, worldly genius. But dang he has the whole yard gnome thing down.

Well, this is interesting. This feller makes case that Germany is actually doing a really good job of supporting Ukraine, and backs it up w data. I have no dog in this fight so glad to see there's lots of info about Germany's support that I hadn't thought of before. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/9/2146199/-Ukraine-update-Germany-has-done-more-for-Ukraine-than-most-know-or-acknowledge

And what can Putler do? Seems all he can do is have more mobiks digging & manning more trenches.