danfrodo

That's been the case for lots of these RU operations. A lot of RU casualties, a little advance, then UKR counterattacks/probes into these smashed RU units and pushes them back to the original start lines or a little further.

ugh, nothing worse than running into ppsh at short range. Nothing better than being the ambushers w the ppsh. What nationality is that smoke? German or russian? Great pics, as always, thanks much

I am still wondering how long nights and loss of leaf cover is going to affect operations. Mud would normally be the problem, but w UKR's tactics maybe not a show stopper. I am pretty sure UKR will have more infantry/vehicle night/thermal vision and more drones w same. I'm hoping RU soldiers find themselves severely underequipped for night ops w no concealment.

I keep getting my hopes up when I see these cross-river raids and I know it's so impossibly hard to supply it, so much risk, as in 'arnhem' level risk. But wow, it sure does present RU w some tough choices. If it is real, RU is facing probable annihilation of their land bridge defenses, so RU has to respond. But with what do they respond? They just burned up their 'reserve' army at Robotyne & Andiivka. So they'll have to thin the lines somewhere, move some artillery & support, etc. If they don't respond strongly they'll be at risk of UKR actually making a bigger move. Good timing, w RU now fully committed at Andiivka and having burned up a huge amount of shells, men, & vehicles. Maybe UKR is looking at this as being a nice place to ambush RU reinforcements out in the open with artillery as they coming rushing in w orders to wipe out the bridgehead. There was talk of option space recently here in the thread. This crossing definitely reduces RU option space, and makes the options they do choose that much more risky. I like it.

The Grieshof Meet & Greet. Really fun so far. My big flanking op is taking shape. I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch, but things are looking good.

Playing a 1979 CMCW scenario that so far is one of the best of any CM title that I've played. Large meeting engagement with lots of options for offense & defense. So far things going pretty well for the US. Set up: advance mech infantry & tanks through possibly observed area using smoke to get to some of my objectives. Saw 'em coming and got into good firing positions across the valley. M60s & TOWs had hard time but finally knocked out RU tanks: BMPs used terrain to mask movement but got caught by another group of M60s w TOWs I had rushed to the RU side of the valley on the right of the battle: With those threats mostly dealt with, time to begin my big flanking operation. But to do that I first have to knock out the reverse-slope ambush-roadblock in the woods. Fortunately my scouts heard the BMPs so I knew it was there. Organized a big infantry-tank attack from three sides, and it worked . One last thorn in my side needs to be handled: Four T72s(64s?) have been sitting at the edge of some woods in overwatch position the entire battle. My artillery knocked out two, but two were still stubbornly constricting my ability to poke my head of the slope on my side of the valley. But with the roadblock gone, I could come at them from behind, from the woods. Lost one M60 but knocked out the bad guys. Four lovely smoke plumes. Now forming up for what I am hoping will be a rampage through russian backfield on their reverse slope. Takes time as my forces all thread their way along single forest track. Russian infantry with some tanks still moving on my side of the valley in dead ground, but hard to engage them so will have to wait until they crest the ridge. Gonna be quite a shootout at that point.

FlammenwerferX & PhantomCapt, keep it coming! This is great stuff, I really enjoy it. Thanks! I gotta add some of my recent to this thread, some CMCW fighting.

This is really irking me right now. First we see the nonsense that Ukraine war & terrorist attacks by Hamas are somehow part of some scheme, which is of course true because .....they are contemporary in time????? I see idiotic, imbecilic new narrative being built where somehow aid to Israel precludes aid to Ukraine. Israel already has 10,000X the military power of Hamas. Maybe they'll need to be back stopped on shells, but not at anything close to the level that UKR goes through. Could people just use their damn brains and not just swallow these obviously absurd narratives without question? Jesus, this is infuriating. It's like watching the pied piper hypnotize children.

Daily dose of confirmation bias. Good summary of where things are today but not much new. Both sides stuck in defensive warfare, or denial as TheCapt would say. RU launched brilliant, massive offensive operation that cleverly reduced the amount of food, ammo & fuel need by RU forces in the Andiivka area, though did lead to a shortage of body bags. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/14/2199143/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-has-the-upper-hand-but-it-s-a-defensive-slugfest?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web

Incredible UKR combat video here. Video bounces between trench fighting and the drone above watching it all. Confusion amid fighting in the trench maze, particularly on RU soldiers who seem to have less situational awareness. Especially when they come flying out from dugouts trying to escape. Some shooting just a couple meters apart. From above, we get the big picture while the guys on the ground only see what's right in front of them.

Well thought out & well spoken, Kraft. I don't really agree, but I can see that your points make sense. I still think the cost to RU of taking some unimportant pile of rubble wasn't worth the cost. UKR took casualties but also believed the math worked in their favor so chose to use Bakhmut as an area to hold w goal of killing lots of russians. Morale & politically, I think Bakhmut was a UKR victory. They stood for months, slowly giving ground. RU looked inept and had heavy infighting that led to a botched coup (or whatever that was) and burned up hundreds of thousands of shells and now has a shell shortage. Maybe RU doesn't care about the convicts it killed but it does miss the ordnance.

Yes, well, I am a very stupid person, obviously. Sugarcoating would be nice, and use small words.

great point, thanks for that. But like you say, pretty sketchy 'what if' to hang one's hat on. But damn that would be great if it happens and it works.

They were just absolutely obliterated, even their own propagandists are saying it was a disaster. Yet again, another offensive action that leads to massive losses for nothing. Exactly what did they learn?? I was hoping for more nuanced analysis, but Ohh well.

Or maybe it shows that RU decision makers are really, really f-ing stupid? Like w endless waste of men & material to take Bakhmut? Like every other offensive they've tried this year? They have basically gained nothing while burning out huge resources. UKR hasn't gained much territory, but at least they are working toward something important -- cutting major landbridge east-west supply lines. If UKR can just get another 20km then RU in serious trouble -- but can they get another 20km?? But instead of ensuring this doesn't happen, RU burns up its reserves in pointless disasters.

nothing particularly new here, but when there's good news might as well enjoy it https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/13/2199210/-Ukraine-Update-Russian-sources-are-pessimistic-about-their-disastrous-attacks-on-Avdiivka?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web It's always lovely when RU decides to destroy it's reserves out in the open. This is huge amount of men & material that won't be around to cause trouble later.

You have been mentioning how if UKR could, it should initiate a breakthrough attack in some significantly weakened section of the RU lines. When summer started, this was I thought would happen. They'd attack at one end of the front then once RU reserves were solidly committed, they'd launch attack at other end of line. Sadly, this did not happen. But where on the line would UKR attack that doesn't require a surprise-destroying investment to get through the minefields? By the time they clear the forward lines/obstacles, RU has had plenty of time to respond, robbing from some other quiet sector to the newly threatened one. Crossing the Dnieper seems super risky, but it's the one place that isn't strewn w mines & defensive networks. And it would put UKR right into RU backfield. But how on earth to supply such an operation over time??? RU aint great at precision but they can certainly throw enough ordnance at the bridges to knock them out, over & over again. I guess Dnieper is at it's yearly lowest depth right now, which helps. But w the coming rain it will rise and also the banks will get very, very muddy. But dang, wouldn't this be amazing? I don't think it'll happen but it would be one for the history books, like you said.

when vehicle weighs many tons and is not going very fast, like typically less than 50km/hr, I am quite sure air resistance is the least of the fuel expenditures. Especially for a tracked vehicle and especially driving over dirt. I'd be shocked if it were even a measurable difference. These are fuel guzzling behemoths and I think the only thing that would make a difference is increased mass, of which these cages don't seem to be much relative to the starting mass.

Above, question of why RU men are signing up to this war. I am sure there's the usual reasons of adventure, patriotism, stupidity, but I wonder if it's just simply the money for most of them. They are in a garbage economy w/o much chance of prospering and they are offered a big sack of money to go to Ukraine. And they all think they won't be the ones dying. And I bet they mostly think it'll be like a 6 month stint before it's over.

Exactly what I've been wondering about -- will UKR be able to take any advantage of the ~14-16 hours of night that are on the way. THanks for sharing that. RU soldier shot his comrade in the dark. Gotta be terrifying to be attacked at night by folks that can see when you can't

and now we move from the attack crisis to the longer, ugly, heartbreaking, hostage crisis. My guess is Israel will hold all of Gaza 'hostage' until hamas releases the kidnapped Israelis; can't say I would do different given the situation. Maybe Israel will also agree to free some prisoners or some such to help get to a deal. But this is going to be so ugly going forward. A huge humanitarian crisis ahead while these f-ing monsters hold Israeli citizens. Hamas has unleashed and unrestrained Israeli military power in a way not seen in a very long time. Israel right now has carte blanch in (most) world opinion. This will change over time, so Israel will probably hit hard in immediate term before the humanitarian costs start to change world opinion. I get that the young palestinian men who actually did the attack have grown up in oppression. It's their leaders that have to be blamed, as they use these young men as angry tools for their own twisted strategies. As I said earlier, they should've gone very intensive non-violent campaign decades ago. That would've paid off. This just makes everything so much worse for people already generationally oppressed by both their enemies (israelis) and their allies (their arab/muslim 'friends')

This is the best post in a while. It's gonna take a while. And we don't need to get excited over every poll or pundit or opinion or conspiracy, these things come & go. Eyes on the prize, on the longer term. RU has survived the summer. Disappointing for sure. But to survive they burned up a lot of resources and further mortgaged the nation to this idiotic one-man war (meaning only Putin benefits from not stopping the war). So UKR in good position and getting stronger while RU grows weaker -- at least that's what the preponderance of evidence shows.

So are you thinking that perhaps Netanyahu will actually get some of the blame? I was thinking that he'll pass the blame on to others, successfully, but maybe it goes the other direction. As was stated in a post above, perhaps the claim that Netanyahu was so busy playing politics & cronyism that he left the country vulnerable. I can't stand Netanyahu so I would enjoy watching that.

In the end, Israel will have more land, which they will take without much notice from the outside world. They will have more power over the palestinians. They will have some weeks of the ability to engage in whatever violence they want without much question. Netanyahu will blame someone. Frightened Israelis will become increasingly right wing, as usually happens with fear response. So enjoy the violence binge, Hamas, and enjoy the hangover. Since the 90s, when the great disaster happened (Rabin assassinated by Israeli zealot), I have believed that the only weapon the palestinians could use to win was world opinion. Militarily they are ants fighting a very large anteater. So non-violence was what I thought would work best. Use mass protest -- thousands laying down in from of Israeli bulldozers, hunger strikes, anything that gets on the world's news programs and generates sympathy. That was the only way to win. But instead the violent zealots did their idiotic pinprick attacks, year after year, accomplishing nothing except leaving their people w less and less territory and less and less sovereignty, while generating sympathy for Israel and hardening the hearts of nearly all Israelis. And now this utterly brilliant move. At a time when the world sees Israeli democracy on the edge and world opinion of Israeli govt was lowering.

I suppose the idea is to start a great uprising in the muslim world against Israel? Kinda like white supremacists in US always thinking if they ignite a race war all the whiteys will be with them. Or like Tet offensive, where NV & VC thought the city folks would support them and rise up (probably true in the countryside, but not in the cities).