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 Gotta justify that martial law I guess.

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Video about the opinion of these particular russian soldiers about their invasion.

I wonder how they will react once they return home, if they in fact do, and see what has been the posture of its State towards this war. This  """lesson" published by the Russian ministry of Education is some of the more Orwellian **** I have seen in a long time. Supposedly its going to get integrated, or atleast the general idea, in the curriculum of Russian schools:

 

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4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is not what I see.  I see the growing suspicion I have had for some time now that air superiority might be a dead concept, which has enormous implications.  Especially if you are trying to invade/occupy another country.

I disagree. Two years ago the azeris were able to achieve full air superiority over the Nagorno Kharabak, to devastating effect to the Armenians. Plus, the way the Azeris planned and carried out that operation was probably something more resembling a "modern" war than what we are seeing now from the Russians.

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1 minute ago, womble said:

It's possible, at least, that there's an understandable "innocent" (nearly) explanation for this: the weather isn't too good over the Black Sea at the moment, and I'm sure Romania are sortieing a few more jets than usual. If one of them got into trouble and then the SAR bird mucked up in the rescue, there's no need for hostile actors to have been directly involved. Of course, the reason for the extra hours on those old airframes is currently cursing the inconvenient gallantry of the Ukrainian defenders...

In fact, further reading seems to indicate that it crashed on the ground, rather than on the Black Sea, so it was most likely an accident:

Will edit the previous post accordingly

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No Russian involvment on this case. It seems it crashed on land, so hardly it was caused by the Russians.

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7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Notable he's playing these games w Sweden & Finland, non-NATO states, and not w Baltic states, which could give NATO pretext for intervention.  Very telling. 

So the idiot is completely consumed w his Ukraine fiasco and thinks he's gonna scare Finland & Sweden w invasion or attacks right now?  WTF did he think would happen when he launched this invasion?  Of course Sweden and Finland want to join NATO now, all because of him. 

They are probably going to do the famous "escalate to de-escalate". The stratetigic situation has completely deteriorated for the Russians, probably to the point of unsustainability, and a long war against Ukraine with the full pressure of European/NATO lend lease and economic sanctions is not viable, not even in the short term.

They will probably will seek some form of re-balancement via concession or direct military action from the wst, so the strategic situation gets in their favour. How are they going to do it, I have no idea, but I would not be surprised if things get tense in the Georgian border and in the Baltic sea one of these days.

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Because that will convince everybody that things are going well...

Well, in some way they are going to have to try and control all those conscripts that were lied into war, and now, whatever is the result of it, are going to start trickling back to their homes. I am sure they have their strong opinions about Putin and this adventuro into Ukraine. Thats a long-fuse bomb for the regime right there.

Also, in reference to what I said above, its probably part of the whole escalation process. That is, of course, if they go ahead with the enacment of martial law. As of right now we dont have solid proof that they are going to do it. (Althought Martial law was the 4 trending search topic in Russian google today)

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Seems like the Russian Aviation decided to comunicate on open channels. Here you can watch supposed Su-35S and their AWACS coordinating sorties into Ukraine from Belarus:

 

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More threats to Sweden and Finland.

Also, the Georgians are going to file for EU membership as well:

And the best for the end, there is a possibility that Russian authorities may enact martial law this friday:

Edit: The Russians have expelled the US ambassador:

I had also read this morning, althought I cannot find it right now, that Poland is planning to cut relations with Russia. Dont know how true is that.

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21 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Looks like operational areas to me, notice Crimea and Donbas regions are not connected. If Putin is going to go for a major territorial revision, why wouldn't he link those two areas with a land bridge?

I also think that they are likely operational areas, thought in case that they in fact are post war planned borders, Crimea would not be united with the Donbass. Crimea is "oficially" part of the Russian Federation, while the republics are, technically, their own independent states. He is not going to "give back" Crimea, as Kruschev did.

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Just now, DesertFox said:

Errr...

I suppose they have a contingency plan in case of US intervention. Isn´t the 1st Cavalry Division actually deployed in Poland?

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Did Lukhasenko just leaked the Russian plans for Ukraine?:

 

To note, that supossedly the map shows a possible partition of Ukraine (althought maybe those are military operational areas, rather than post war planned borders), and a thrust into Transnistria/Moldavia

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The EU has, reportedly, accepted Ukraine aplication. It will still take some time for them to oficially join, thought :

 

 

Regarding Russian planing, It seems that Russian comms were not coded. This thread compiles some of what was heard during the assault to Kharkiv. Some parts are devastating really:

 

 

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Something interesting that happened some hours ago:

It seems that a Russian IL76 tried to make a mad dash to Kaliningrad. It didnt work, and is being scorted by Polish Jets to Bratislava right now.

Edit: Here you can see It landing in Slovakia

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1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

When I was studying Spanish (Castilian) in high school (secondary school in some countries),I learned a poem by a Spanish poet. As it was about 54 or 55 years ago, I don’t remember the poet’s name, or even if it was written before the Franco regime. I ask in advance that Spanish speakers forgive any spelling or syntax errors. The poem, and it’s translation goes like this; “En esta Mundo tratador, nada es verdad ni mentido. Todo es la color del crystal buscamos habias.” “In this traitor world, nothing is truth nor lie. All is the color of the glasses through you look. Additionally, please look at the number 6. Remember that from a different perspective or point of view, it might also be a 9.

 

please keep those things in mind when you post, and provide actual proof from a known, reliable source when making accusations on either side of the argument.

Let me correct it for you then

"Y es que en el mundo traidor, nada hay verdad o mentira, todo es según el color, del cristal con el que se mira".

It was written by Ramón de Campoamor

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7 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

70 planes for Ukraine... That is like a third of the full inventory of aircraft, of all types, that they had pre-war. It seems that Ukranian pilots are in Poland and from there they will fly the planes to Ukraine

No planes from Bulgaria thought:

Understandable, considering the composition of the Bulgarian airforce

[How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?]

70 planes for Ukraine... That is like a third of the full inventory of aircraft, of all types, that they had pre-war. It seems that Ukranian pilots are in Poland and from there they will fly the planes to Ukraine

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1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I'm getting extremely nervous from all that optimism. So much wishful thinking. The Russians haven't even started yet and the world thinks they are beaten. 

Operationaly they might still win in Ukraine, that much is true. Strategically? He is losing and very badly

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5 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Also almost certainly the reason why Putin has escalated his nuclear forces. As @The_Capt says, his option space is low and he needs a deterrent. Were it not for the nuclear deterrent NATO would have almost certainly intervened by now. 

Exactly. Thats why they all look so distressed on those meetings. They have lost all form of economical and conventional deterrence towards the West ( And China really). The nukes is the only thing that they have left at this point

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Just now, Bulletpoint said:

Or unipolar if Putin pushes the button and China stays out of it.

Do not worry, in case of nuclear war the firsts to nuke the chinese will be the russians themselves.

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15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

At some point during Desert Storm/Shield Russia pushed hard to get the war to stop.  Analysts were saying that the main reason for that was the images of all that Soviet weaponry being totally useless against Coalition forces was really bad for their arms export business.  Not too surprising to see a lot of countries shift over to Western built systems in the years that followed..

I doubt anybody in the Russian government is thinking of this right now while in crisis mode, but at some point they probably will.

Steve

 

13 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Don't the Russians have something like 31.000 tanks and other armored vehicles?

I didnt meant tanks exactly, but rather as a metaphor of their military units. The more military units are tied up on Ukraine, and getting destroyed there, the less that can be used to attack Poland. Right now making a move on Poland or Turkey would be suicidal; the more they keep fighting Ukraine, the more sucidal it gets. That fact is probably not lost on EU and NATO military planners, and as such, they can increase the pressure on Russia, as the threat of retaliation is low.

One of the reasons why Europe is acting so decisively is because the Ukranians are resisting the Russian onslaugth. If the Ukranians had folded up, sanctions would probably had been more limited initially, and the thought of giving weapons to the Ukranians would have been dismissed.

I mean, you have the example of the closure of the Bosphorus. Turkey has gone ahead with that decision because the threat of Russian retaliation is extremely low.

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6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Beyond this conflict, Russia will spend a very long time without anybody fearing a conventional war with them.  Before this war they spent a lot of time doing things to convince the world they were stronger than they in fact were.  Now that everybody has seen they really are as weak as they are, it's going to be tough for Russia to get people to take them seriously again.

Steve

Yep, and as more tanks are sent to be destroyed on Ukraine, the lesser is the threat (conventionally speaking) to NATO countries, and the more aggresive the EU and NATO can get with sanctions and with weapon deliveries to the ukranians. The russians would be wise to accept whatever peace agreement (as long as it allows them to save face to their public) the Ukranians are giving them, and not allow this to keep spiriling down into disaster.

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More on the closure of the Bosphorus:

 

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7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I wonder how much these logistical attacks, both from air & ground are helping?  We see anecdotal evidence, like above, and I hope it's helping to slow Russians down and hurt morale (like running low on food).  RUssian plan was clearly to bypass a lot of areas and so hopefully getting attacks on convoys that would require lots of those BMPs to play guard duty along increasingly lengthened lines.

Well, the reports of abandoned tanks, of stranded columns, and of Russians abandoning their vehicles keep on getting more numerous. So the general situation is definitively not great. It seems that the russians themselves botched the logistics of the operation. Still this attacks are definitively not helping.

Also, that the Ukranians are able of using drones to strike deep rear areas, shows that either their air defenses are plain bad, or that their employment is being incompetent (or maybe the TB2/their operators is just that good, who knows)

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More TB2 strikes have been released. One interesting one is the last clip were a fuel train is blowed up. The Ukranians sure are not going to make the supply situation any easier:

 

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37 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The only way this isn't REALLY bad down the road is if the Russians quit and go home. The Ukrainians are fighting as hard as anyone ever has, near as makes no matter. The Russians are starting to use MLRS systems against populated areas, next they will start in with one of their fuel-air atrocities. Before this is over Ukrainian teenage girls are going to be blowing themselves up at Russian checkpoints to take a few Russians to hell with them, unless the Russians GO HOME. Bleeping Bleep people this is an awful mess to make over one old guys delayed midlife crisis. It is a god awful tragedy for 99.999% of Russians, too. Real value of Every asset in Russia is off by 80% this morning, By Friday it might be 95%. FOR WHAT?

Some of them are already doing that by themselves...:

 

45 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It's fascinating to see how afraid everone is, during meetings and discussions with Putin. Even his chief of the security service. Fear easily changes into hate, so there's also hope on that front.

The face of Shoigu yesterday said it all, really.