[How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?]

4 minutes ago, melm said:

TB2 is just a tactical UAV and the load is small. I doubt that they've been used to bomb the airbase. If they were used, the destruction it could inflict is minimal.

They could be used to attack exposed aircraft thought (probably the russians were not properly protecting them as they did not expect Ukranian retaliation), with more precision than the Tochkas. It would be interesting to know how many UAV participated if indeed this was an attack by the UAV.

However, its more likely that its was carried by Tochkas, in that I agree. However I found interesting the possibility of the attack being carried by UAVs

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Also, there is a chance that the attack on the Millerovo airbase was done by TB2 drones and not by Tochka-U missiles. If this is confirmed, the russian army REALLY needs to look into the capabilities of its air defence (Either that, or maybe the TB2 is just that good or/and the Ukranians really know how to make good use of them)

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3 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Here are my impressions on this. This is actually a stereotypical product of operational art. The goal of this whole operation is not The Entire Country, as many seem to believe. Kyiv is the main strategic objective and the target of two operational axes - one east and one west. All the other axes are diversionary on Nice-to-Have objectives. Would it be nice to have Kharkiv? Yes. Would it be nice to have Melitopol? Why not? Maybe a coastal city or two? But Kyiv is the one they really want.

While everyone is celebrating on every Russian plane downed, every little reverse, what's happening is that Ukrainian forces are stretched thin, not only in width, but in depth - the volume of Ukraine is being used to reduce the force densities Russian forces will have to face. For example, in trying to get rid of one Russian airborne (foot) company, two elite brigades were drawn in (4th Rapid Response and 45th Spetznaz. If they could have been sent against the Russian columns, they might have kept the Russians out of Kyiv at least for another day or two. Now the West column is starting to snake into Kyiv.

That's why as Zelensky observes a lot of Russian attacks are stopping though the total Russian casualties is still less than 500 (at least as estimated by the British). They already achieved their minimum goals.

Nah, the intention of taking quickly Kyiv is to have some pro russian politician sign a capitulation agreement and have some legitimacy. It seems that Western Ukraine its going to be left "independent" (That would depend of how the push on Kyiv goes of course). If anything it shows a bit of deseperation. There is no indication that the Ukranian army will stop fighting in case of the fall of its capital. The Ukranian high command will keep operating from Lviv. On the contrary, taking the eastern parts of their country in a quick manner would have mean the encirclement and anhilation of Ukranian forces there, plus a big loss to the economy potential of Ukraine, even if Kyiv holds, probably forcing the Ukranian goverment to accept peace. Right now the attack on Kharkiv is as relevant strategically to the russians as the attack towards Kyiv

About the push on Kyiv, the russian as of now have only taken the open spaces north of the city. The Ukranian army was never going to hold onto those. The danger is now if they are able to bypass the suburbs and encircle the city. However they will start facing heavier resistance the closer they get to urban areas. 

Also, about the celebration of downed airplanes, its important to remember that Russia has not the economy to replenish quickly modern equipment. Any losses they suffer to their arsenal are important in the long term. Also, it shows that both the Ukranian air force and its air defenses are still operative, which a lot of people thought, me included, that they were going to be destroyed on the first day of the offensive, but there they are. Also russian casualties are definitively higher than 500 ( counting KIA, WIA and MIA)

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Melitopol reportedly is back on Ukranian hands.

The danger right now is the situtation around Kyiv, were is possible that one russian armored column is actually breaking throught Ukranian defensive lines. However, if they keep pushing without support they will eventually get encircled and destroyed, so I do not know whats the plan with rushing only one column into the city center. A propaganda victory? They hope for more breakthroughs? Maybe they think the Ukranian high officers will surrender if they see an unsopported column at its doorstep?

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20 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Russians might have made it into Melitopol:

and as of two hours ago may have reached some suburb of Kyiv:

They took it yesterday. There was news of a possible Ukranian counterattack there but I have not more information about its resolution.

As for good news, it seems the Antonivsky Bridge over Kherson city (the one I posted yesterday which showed Russian units crossing) is back on Ukranian hands (The reports about Russian troops in Mykolaiv were also false):

Simultaniously, the Ukranian army was able to hit the Millerovo Airfield in Rostov, Rusia. Casualties and damage unknown:

Now, it seems that the russians are pushing hard towards Kyiv. Heavy fighting reported, with heavy russian casualties around Hostomel:

It seems that they are going to try push into the center of the city today. They supposedly are taking ukranian equipment and changing uniform:

 

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Very much unconfirmed, but this would be very bad news. If they are near Mykolaiv, it means that they have achieved a deep breaktrought in the south. Its likely that the whole western seaboard will be lost in that case.

EDIT: In opposition to this:

If the city of Kherson is still in Ukranian hands, they hardly can be on Mykolaiv. Unless they came from other direction, or bypassed the city at its north 

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23 minutes ago, akd said:

They may be playing psyops games with isolated groups of Russians that have not been reduced. Given the situation, "scattered" seems an odd outcome.

Now, here is a lucky cab driver:

 

Its likely that you were right. Althought it seems that the target of the misinformation was not really the russian troops in the airport, but maybe the ones coming to reinforce! :

(That is, of course, if this is actually true, and not another "psyop")

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8 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

What does it mean that Putins army can operate from the territory of White Russia? That worries me just as much as the invasion of Ukraine.

They supposedly were going to have a constitutional referendum on the 27. The questions have yet to be revealed, but I guess we all know what its going to be about. However, they said that in case of war the referendum would be postponed. As of now, there has not being any announcement about any delay

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3 minutes ago, womble said:

That would be endgame for Putin, wouldn't it? The Finns have a very strong record against Russia, I gather 

They are going to be present tomorrow in the NATO meeting, so...  

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Nah, forget what I said, they backtracked AGAIN!. Will not post anything related to the airport until it is fully confirmed.

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Lets still not get our hopes up, least we get as dissapointed as before.

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The same goes for Kharkiv, by the way:

The battle for Kharkiv will probably be one of the most important and biggest battles of this war. Hopefully the line holds long enough for the units fighting in the Donbass to stage a fighting withdrawal and avoid encirclement.

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It seems th russians are going to push towards Mariupol either tonight or by tomorrow morning. Most likely trying to breaktrhough into Melitopol and meet with its forces in South Kherson. This would put the Ukranian forces in the Donbass in a precarious position, having its enemy taking their rear

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Just now, John Kettler said:

Ref a remark made earlier that Putin's ultimate objective is to reconstitute the Soviet Union. That is incorrect. He has said explicitly he wishes to reestablish the Russian Empire. The Russian Federation national emblem is the Tsarist double eagle. If, arguendo, he decides to seize Ukraine outright, in whole or in part, it will be in fulfillment of that overarching strategic objective.

Regards,

John Kettler

When we say reinstitute the Soviet Union, we mean its previous territory and influence. The Soviet Union had nearly the entirety of eastern europe, including Berlin (well some parts) under its domain. Thats more influence and power over europe (and the world) that the tsars could ever dream of.

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3 minutes ago, akd said:

If true, we need no further evidence that Russia cannot provide air support to troops at night.  Ukraine should exploit this ruthlessly and we should flood them with as much quality night vision gear as possible.

Unfortunetly they have backtracked the statement, we will have to wait. Thats something I am hopeful, that along all the Javelins and Stingers, some modern night vision equipment made its way into Ukraine.

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8 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:

This would be such great news!

Unfortunetly they have backtracked their statement. Hopefully if they released such an statement is because they are about to finally eliminate all pockets of resistance inside the airport. The moment I see more information I will post it here.

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The only angle I can think of right now is that he has somehow managed to penetrate the Ukrainian military and government and has cut a drug deal behind the scenes.  However, beyond being insulting to those Ukrainians who are currently dying for their country, this also raise the obvious question of "why do a full scale invasion act?"  I mean if he had sway inside the Ukrainian government why not pull that lever and stage a coup from the inside a la Crimea?  Cruise missiles and massive rocket bombardments do not demonstrate a sophisticated political warfare approach. 

So unless Putin has been dozing through the last 30 years of western misadventures or simply has been smoking his own supply and thinks "I will be different" because I ride bears on the weekend, this dance makes no sense.  This is the chapter Clausewitz never got to; "war is sometimes just plain dumb".

Or, like I said in an earlier post, either the long term economic/strategic conditions of its country have pushed him into this direction. Putin has always been a megalomaniac which despised the western world and saw the collapse of the soviet union (when I say soviet union, I mean the territory, not the ideology) as a disaster to be corrected. Yet it has only now decided to go ahead and attack the western world so fragantly.

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Unconfirmed, but hopefully true. If it is, the Ukranians have just achieved an important victory. We will have to wait for official confirmation and videos from the inside.

8 minutes ago, db_zero said:

I just heard that blocking Russia from the SWIFT system has been taken off the table because Germany, Hungary and a couple other counties vetoed it.

Regarding sanctions, I will still wait some days to see what the German government ends up doing. Hungary and Cyprus are a lost cause, but under pressure from US, UK and most importantly, France, they might finally go ahead with the SWIFT disconnect (Italy would most likely approve it if Germany ends up doing so). On the contrary, the Germans are risking getting isolated from all of their important allies and breaking EU and NATO cohesion. I will wait some days to see what they might end up doing. Unfortunetly, the decision might be taken in case Kiev falls or is close to.

Also, interesting quote from Biden:

If they are saying this, is because they dont rule out an eventual attack on the baltics

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Tank battles north of Chernigov ( The tweet says is north of Kiev, but it is actually  +130 Km away from it).

Supposedly the counter attack to retake the airfield is about to begin, hopefully they are able to retake it before those IL-76 arrive.

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3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Most tragic losses of this day - Russian missiles hit dislocation of 14th radiotechnical brigade near Podilsk, Odesa obalst - sereal buildings completely ruined, 22 KIA (among them 11 women, militaries)

Video, likely from Hostomel. Russian Su-25 hit cottadge. There was a video, as if Su-25 shot down over Hostomel, but I can't confirm this is tru or not.

 

That it is actually a MIG-29, look at the wings and tail; most likely Ukranian. It seems that it actually fires two Anti-Air missiles, with one of them tracking the ground, unfortunetly. You can see the plane trailing smoke, it seems it was damaged and decided to launch its ordenance to reduce weight and avoid crashing

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More paratroopers incoming:

The Ukranian army REALLY needs to take that airfield back

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Unconfirmed but this could be interesting:

Khakovka its situated in the eastern side of the Dnieper. The question is, in case its confirmed, if its part of a limited attack by local Ukranian forces in the area, or if it is a counter- attack with the intention of retaking Kherson. At the very least, it will put pressure into the Kherson area and limit any advances beyond the Dnieper.

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Hostomel airfield newar Kyiv according to CNN taken by Russians, but maybe that first wave, which could to land and engage.

Yeah, they probably want the airport as an staging point to attack Kiev. They will probably start bringing more equipment and VDV personel as the hours pass by. It seems the Ukranian army is in the process of trying to retake the airfield, thought.

 

14 minutes ago, BigDork said:

The ship attacked is the bulk carrier YASA JUPITER. It appears to be Turkish owned but flagged out of the Marshall Islands. Its crew is made up of 8 Turks, 11 Filipinos, and 11 Ukrainians. It seems to still be sailing and is on route to Romania still, according to the report. 

https://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/karadenizde-turk-gemisine-bomba-isabet-etti,ZxeLwCi9Q0CSvP4eYpy3NQ

Good to know. Now we have to wait and see what is the Turkish response

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In reference to my prevoius post about the Dnieper crossing, it seems that the South Kherson region was lost to the invaders. Considering the geography, that was to be expected honestly, the dangerous bit was the succesful crossing of the Dnieper. If they are able to keep pushing, they could start threathening Mykolaiv and Odessa (There would be most likely an amphibous assault in that case, to support the land invasion)

 

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3 minutes ago, Kraft said:

2 TB2s have been shot down, I hope the rest faires better against the invaders

Supposedly 4, if we go by Russian sources. However, as this user puts it, thats not too bad of a thing. If anything, it seems that a good chunk of the Ukranian air force was able to survive the initial missile salvo. The battle for the skies is still not fully decided:

 

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A turkish vessel was attacked by Russian forces some minutes ago it seems.

Also, unfortunetly, it appears Russian armored formations have been able to cross the Dnieper around Kherson city:

Nevertheless, it seems that the Ukranian Army its holding its ground around Kharkiv. Suppossedly, 15 tanks were destroyed north of Sumy.

EDIT:

There is fighting reported in the Chernobyl area:

 

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35 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Russia couldn't win a ground war against NATO, and NATO will not attack Russian forces directly. I'm guessing Putin's end goal is regime change in Ukraine, installing a puppet government in the good old Soviet style.

Depends. If the attacks happens in the coming days the russians would have near absolute strategic surprise. The Polish Army is still unmobilized and dispersed across Poland. The only NATO unit near is the 82 US Airborne. Meanwhile the russians have mobilized a big chunk of its armed forces into Belarus. If the russians think that they can knock off Poland quickly before NATO reinforces it, they might go ahead. (Important to highlight that, it doesnt matter if in reality knocking off Poland so quickly would be impossible, what matters is if the Russian High command think it is, or not, or they are to desperate to care)