CHEqTRO
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Posts posted by CHEqTRO
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3 minutes ago, melm said:
Why nuclear weapons are not allowed in Cuba? And if UKR joins NATO, nothing stops UKR has nuclear weapons as Turkey already has.
Turkey does not border Russia. On the other hand, Russia unilateraly scrapped the INF treaty and positioned Nuclear weapon in Kaliningrad capabale of striking within minutes all of Europe, and in the border or a NATO country. If the russian want security guaranties, lets talk also some for us Europeans
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The invasion, by the way, its going poorly. The russian are conducting an offensive as if this was still the 1980s. Very poor planing (The Hostomel airdrop was esentially a disaster), poor logistical support, they have failed to achieve air superiority, Ukranian armored formations are still able to freely manouver etc. Like I said yesterday, either we have severily overstimated russian capabilities, or they are holding back for something
Also, there was a lot of propaganda regarding that the Ukranians were ethnically cleansing the russian speaking population, and that they would recive the Russian Army as heroes. That is not what we have been seeing:
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9 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:
Several factors here:
1) Laches Doctrine / Estoppel / Time Prescription: Even if conditions are identical, Putin might simply recognize that Russia has passed up its chance to really object to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia joining NATO (which also explains why they are working hard on pre-empting the next guy from joining NATO).
2) Actual Practice: After a dozen or so years in NATO, the US has not placed an Aegis Ashore in the Baltic States.
3) Adjacent Factors: To put it bluntly, if things really came a push, Lithuania is relatively small and its organic Air Force very weak. The sheer small size places limits on the kind of forces NATO can additionally deploy there. Do you think it'd be easier to pre-emptively strike, if things come down to it, a bunch of offensive missiles in Lithuania or in Ukraine?
Thus, the ability to "grit teeth" for the Baltic States does not equate to the ability to "grit teeth" for Ukraine.
Then there is more than just "they can put missiles near our borders", that was what I was saying
The threat to Russia that Ukraine joins NATO resides in that they lose the capability to apply hard power to influence Ukraine, and that any attack into Poland would be meet with conventional strikes into staging grounds in Belarus and Rusiafrom Ukraine; from a military perspective. Ukraine was still not going to join NATO in like 10 to 20 years thought, even being optimistic (Germany and France would have always blocked such inclusion)
NATO accesion of Ukraine was not a cause for the current Russian aggresion, at best it was a timer, a timer that still had a lot of time to run its course.
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11 minutes ago, DMS said:
You guys ask why Putin attacked, I try to translate you reasons that were mentioned in Putin's and other officials speeches, your reaction is "emotional". Ok, I won't discomfort you.
It is a BS reason because we would already have the capability to strike Moscow within 5 minutes, following the logic from Putin, from the Baltic states. I dont know why we should take Kremlin declarations at face value, when they were saying that they were not going to invade Ukraine, neither recognize the republics until like 5 days ago, along other series of lies. Putin and Lavrov are talking now of ""liberating"" Ukraine from its Nazi leadership, not about whatever BS "security guaranties" they wanted. So dont worry, you dont discomfort us, it would be just plain stupidity/ignorance to believe that that is the reason, and It has nothing to do with "emotions".
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5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:
If they cross the vistula it is game over and Chernobyl will be kindergarden compared to what is to come.
Not really, no. Like I said, the NATO high officials might feel compelled to approve tactical usage of nukes in such an eventuality, but mostly if they believe that there is a threat to Germany.
Such a war will really be won or lost by Russia if they are able to break NATO in continental Europe. And the way to do so is by getting the germans to sue for peace by themselves and get them out of the alliance. They can do so without entering into german territory, just by threaten to actually do so, threat their industrial base with ballistic missiles, and offering them a return to normal trade relations. Wether the german state would accept or not, is doubtful. In case of the Germans sticking with NATO, the war will most likely end up in a phase similar to the one in Korea, with a very extensive DMZ.
The loss of NATO in eastern Europe would not mean the collapse of neither France, England or the USA, so doubtfully they will approve a strategic nuclear exchange that would actualy entail the end of their countries in such an occurrance.
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6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
I'm ok. I just too tired about all these news monitoring, so I havn't enough energy to write here. Today I tried to depart my wife from the city to her parents in more calm Cherkasy oblast, but we can't reach to railway station. Municipal transport stopped on the left bank of Kyiv, though on the right it works like and subway.
All day from my balcony, wich exits to Obolon' and Vyshhorod periodically heard a sounds of shellings. Now I heard outcoming shots of our 2S7 Pion guns, located in 5 km from my house close to city limit. They fire somewhere to the west, where Russian troops concentrates to attack on the city. All day there were periodycal clashes on the line Irpin'-Bucha-Vorzel-Hostomel. There was attempt of Russian tank attack from Chernobyl zone through Ivankiv on Kyiv, but because of we had a time to demolish the bridges through the Teterev river, they halted.
Nice to hear from you! Was starting to get a bit worried honestly. Hopefully you can get your family to safety, or at the very least, find some good shelter. Tomorrow it seems that area is going to get heated. I wish you the best.
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1 minute ago, John Kettler said:
CHEqTRO,
The Russians did even worse in the Russia-Afghanistan War. Troops were blindfolded and shipped into A'stan in the dark, not realizing they'd left Soviet territory! Want to say, too, that in the 2014 invasion of Ukraine something similar was done then, as well. Frankly, Russia is kinder and gentler, giving beatings instead of being sent to still likely existing penal units or firing squads. Refusing a military movement in wartime was and is a capital offense in the Red Army.
Regards,
John Kettler
Yeah I am not surprised by this action from the Russian army. Specially considering the sub-standard performance of the Russian Army till now. Putin is holding its true army back, either in case it needs to escalate against NATO, or to deliver a fatal blow to the spent Ukranians
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12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
If Russia employs tactical nuclear weapons, or even chemical...I am going out back to dig a deep hole.
Hahaha not a bad idea, even thought I highly doubt that we would see full strategic exchange, even if the situtation deteriorates a lot.
Also, in reference to the video I posted earlier of the TOPOL-M ICBM, its important to note that technically they are moving to Moscow for the Victory Day parade. Althought the timing is definetively interisting
(Most likely just the russians trying to create a little bit of panic, they do not need to move their ICBM to Moscow to be able to attack, well, any place on Earth, really)
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3 minutes ago, Doc844 said:
Any thoughts on what if, what if the likes of Poland and other eastern European nato members are starting to get twitchy and are purposefully making moves that russia will respond to and then Natos hand would be forced, article 5 would automatically trigger. ???
They dont need that. Harsh economic sanctions are enough to seriously harm the russian capability to attack into their countries.
Also, talking about sanctions:
Cutoff of relations between NATO/EU and Russia inminent
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It seems Russia is actually sending unexperience conscripts into battle in Ukraine. If this report is to be believed, they didnt even knew they were going to war. There is this video about an Ukranian woman arguing with a Russian soldier asking what are they doing in their city, and the guy respond that they are actually in execises.
It is also worth noting that Russia has, as of yet, only employed around 30-50% of its forces deployed aloong the Ukranian border during the buildup. Also, it seems that they have failed in destroying key Ukranian infrastructure and the Ukranian air force and AA is still operative. You have to wonder why the Russians are conducting such a botched attack honestly.
Also, the russians are sending a message...
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1 minute ago, Vic4 said:
What happens when Putin does engage/attack a NATO country (i.e. one of the Baltics)? Conventional warfare, nuclear, or a withdraw and let him have it because it was once part of the USSR and no one wants WW3?
Conventional warfare, atleast until they cross the Vistula, and threathen to cross the Oder. After that, maybe there is tactical nuclear use.
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More cyberattacks....
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23 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
But how is this war ever going to help the Russian economy? Ukraine has good farmland... that's pretty much it. Not exactly the foundation of a strong, modern economy.
Compare that with the sheer cost of the sanctions. It doesn't make any sense to launch this war for economic reasons.
Well, Ukraine represents around 10% of Russia GDP, so that would be nice to incorporate. Also, getting 40 million more people to tax and that can produce goods for your economy is not too bad. Ukranian farming is extremely important for European market, something that now Russia would control. Also its coal mines, making russian coal more valuable. Just as an example. Or maybe the plan its to just loot the Ukranian state to keep the Russian economy, and so its war machine operative for just a bit longer (Similar to the reason why the Germans went to war back in the 30s)
Also, the economy of an state is represented by the capacity of such state to produce and consume goods. That its still relevant for a free market country or for a closed communist one. Something in the chain of production of the Russian economy must be disturbed or lacking. What, I dont know, but something that is sufficently problematic to provoque this course of action.
There is also the complete shift in the balance of power in Europe, which leaves Russia in a better position to apply soft power, for example.
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4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
Is there anything that can't be blamed on covid these days
I don't think it has anything to do with the economy. If Putin wanted prosperity, he could have been friendly with his neighbours, encouraged trade and opened his gas pipeline.. apparently that was not what he wanted.
This seems more like the fulfilment of an old dream by an old man. He spent so many years seizing and consolidating power.. now in his last years, he wants to change the world.
I think that the economy is always a big factor in this kind of decisions. Covid has been harsh to the Russian people, and so to its economy as well. Maybe the Covid pandemic was not the only cause for russian economic troubles, but just the final straw.
The Russian economy has to have serious problems, at the least in the long term, if they are going in this direction, that I can assure you.
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2 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:
I don’t think this necessarily means this war has been planned for a long time.
For the very least, it has been on the works since April 21. Most likely it was decided to act some time before that. My bet is that they were pushed into this direction by the economic downfall caused by Covid, among other things.
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Just now, Aragorn2002 said:
Cyprus doesn't approve yet...
Yeah, they are the weakest link honestly. But I do not think they are going to be able to whitstand the combined pressure from all NATO/EU for too long. I would be surprised if they did, and more if the EU didnt take disciplinary action against it.
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3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
Looks like it's going to happen anyway.
So it seems. (Told ya that when the germans accept applying sanctions, so will the italians
, they still have to enact them thought, so lets see):
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25 minutes ago, Thomm said:
There is something that I do not understand about the audio recording on YouTube:
You hear the Ukrainian soldiers talk to each other in a 'normal' fashion, but then the 'F' reply can be heard over the radio.
How is this possible? Is this edited?Best regards
ThommNo idea really. Didnt take too much atention to the video.
28 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:The reason why Russia will not be cut off from SWIFT is the fact that the EU is still heavily dependent on Russian Oil (27% of oil imports) and natural gas (41% of Gas imports). How is the EU going to pay for Oil/Gas if Russia is cut off from SWIFT and Russia will cut off the flow if they do not get paid.
IMHO, the reason why EU reaction so far is fairly mild is because this has a "France 1940" feel to it. Everyone is in a wait and see pattern. No one wants to make decisions that will be hard to reverse if the whole thing is over in 1-2 weeks.
Meh, I disagree. The economic turmoil would be bad of course, but its not like we cant take countermeasures, both in the short and long term. We can get gas for the time being from the Americans, and oil from the Middle East. Long term we will have to start conducting Fracking on our shores and go the french way with nuclear energy. It would be harsh, but not catastrophic.
Obviously, if they can avoid taking such action they are going to do so. Hence why the sanction has not being yet enacted. They are most likely hoping that the war ends without Kyiv falling, and they can get the suppossed outcome of a "Neutral" Ukraine. That would not disturb the balance in eastern europe too much. However its clear that the intention of Putin its, at the very least, regime change and taking control of all of central and eastern Ukraine.
The problem with that, is that the security situation for Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states deteriorates drastically in such an eventuallity. These countries are going to seek some counter action to mantain somewhat the previous balance in Eastern Europe, both via economic sanctions and military deployment.
Taking what it would be seen as Russian side, would push those countries more towards an exclusive alliance with the Anglo-American axis of NATO, rather than the European (Germany/France). Lets remember that this countries are supposedly deep on the german sphere of influence, but you have to keep them that way either via hard or soft power. Considering that the Bundeswher itself recognizes that it doesnt have the capabilities to conduct warfare, they only have their soft power. Lets also remember that the poles are also making moves outside of the EU, by signing an "alliance" with the UK and Ukraine.
Its the german government ready to lose its influence in eastern europe, anger the americans (which are going to be the ones bringing the gas), and getting isolated inside of NATO, while esentially making themselves even more dependent to Rusia? I have my doubts.
If the French had also being against the proposal I could see them trying to avoid it, but with the French also on board, I think once is clear that the Russians intend to fully take Ukraine they will go ahead with the sanctions. Like always, we will see.
EDIT: Also, something tells me that the threats towards both Sweden and Finland today, both EU members, have pushed Berlin into the direction of applying sanctions
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Like I said yesterday about sanctions, the germans will come around about applying heavy sanctions, specially now that Kyiv seems threatened.
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Two comercial vessels hit by the Russian army in addition to the turkish one yesterday. These ones seems Romanian/Moldavan
Edit:
An image of the soldiers who resisted russian attacks by themselves against all odds on Snake Island and gave their lives for it. A salute to these heroes.
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Also people are talking as if Ukraine has already lost becasue there are Russians troops at Kyiv suburbs. Kyiv was always going to be reached by Russian forces with relative ease due to its position geograhically. Now they have to take it. Lets wait and see how the battle develops. It looks grim but is too early to say that all is lost.
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21 minutes ago, DMS said:
Cherson is taken - Ukrainian authorities
The line at Kherson has been breached true, yet there is not confirmation neither that the region or the city that bears it name has fallen fully to russian invaders.
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Putin is ****ing delusional. Also:
Are they going to start military operations against Finland now?
(Most likely just the russians trying to create a little bit of panic, they do not need to move their ICBM to Moscow to be able to attack, well, any place on Earth, really)
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by CHEqTRO
We know they run out of fuel due to the conversation with the civilians, which by theway, tell them that they should surrender as a lot of other russians have already done.
In the case of Gostomel, they had a big follow-up drop, but, due to the fact that the Ukranian air defense was still up, decided to abort. This air defence will then go to keep being operative and shoot down two IL-76, presumably packed with paratroopers, some time ago this morning. A success in that operation would have allowed Russian forces to deploy a VDV regiment inside the Kyiv perimeter, and could have precipitated a quick fall of the capital. As of now, all attacks trying to breakthrought the defenses of the capital have failed.
There are also more reports of logistic problem for the Russian army, albeit coming form the Ukranians, in the Sumy axis.
They have failed to breaktrough in the direction of Mariupol as of yet, and also in the direction of Kharkiv. They have broken throught in the Kherson, but as of now that situtation has stabilized. They are pinning the Ukranian forces in the Donbass yes, but the possibilities of an encirclement get slimer any moment they fail to achieve a complete breaktrhought.
EDIT: In regards to air superiority, the have achieved air advantage. However, considering the balance of forces and the russian "in paper" deep strike capabilities, they should have achieved complete air supremacy by now