CHEqTRO
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Posts posted by CHEqTRO
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4 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:
Yes, and do you know exactly what the "territorial seas" cover and do not cover? It's just 12 miles off the coast, and the Baltic Sea for example is more than 12 miles wide on each side.
It seems you are right on this. I thought they were closing the totality of their ADIZs.
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Also, the first T90 I have seen till now, abandoned near Sumy:
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Just now, arkhangelsk2021 said:
The problem is that their jurisdiction does not extend over the sea. It simply isn't "their airspace", for example, in the center of the Denmarks Straits. If they actually try to do that, it'll be their turn to be the international law rulebreakers.
https://www.gc.noaa.gov/pdfs/Airspace above the Territorial Sea 10-16-18.pdf
There is no international rule being broken here
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6 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:
Well ... actually ... no. I think this chart is confusing ADIZ for actual airspace. Actual airspace that you can deny access to is your own soil + 12 miles offshore, and it's clear that those red blocks well exceed that. Russian flights into Kaliningrad will have to avoid intruding into anyone's actual airspace and fly over the Baltic rather than straight lines to St. Petersburg, so it'd be inconvenient. but not quite cut off.
Suppossedly they are being banned from the totality of their airspaces, not only their ground one. That would include the regions on the sea.
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A new iron curtain draws over Europe... for the Russian aviation
. Despite the map, Kaliningrad would not be cut off, unless they also close their ADIZs.
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More about the lack of Russian air superiority:
The Ukranians are still being able to use helicopters around Kyiv, and now we have the first confirmation of TB2 drones striking rear supply convoys
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More about the poor logistical situation of Russian forces. They were reportedly low on food, apart from fuel:
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9 minutes ago, John Kettler said:
CHEqTRO,
Believe that lone demolished Tigr has a BSR fitted, which, if true, definitely means it's a recon vehicle. The only other reasonable explanation is a SATCOM antenna, but its being parallel to the ground would seem to rule that out..
Regards,
John KettlerYeah those are most definitively recon units, no doubt about that. The thing is is that they are pushing not only with these light recon units, but also with unsopported infantry (They are moving trucks into a dense urban environment:)
They are desperate into tacking the city, and either they do not want to risk heavy equipment or/ and they have lost already too much on the outskirts to be used on the assault.
What this tells me, by the way, its that the Russian high command is desperate. They probably had expected Kharkiv to be in their hands already, in order to complete the encirclement of the Donbass area (Remember that yesterday the russians were able to satart threathening Mariupol). It also shows that the russian high command its unwilling, for whatever reasons, to modify its initial war plans. They had been ordered to take Kharkiv, so they will go and try to take it, the overall operational situation and the accumulated losses be damned.
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More about the situation in Kharkiv:
Unsurprysingly, the Russians went in blindly with only the support of light forces and have as of now scattered
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In reference to the push into Kharkiv:
It seems that they have decided to push into the city with light forces, instead that with support of heavy armor:
The convoy that can be seen in the second video has already been destroyed/ stopped:
There are some more videos about light vehicle equipment destroyed inside Kharkiv
The battle is of course not over, but the city is far from lost for the Ukranians. If anything, Russians are going to suffer massive csualties if they go ahead with their decision of attacking only with light forces
Also, some insane footage of the fighting against the convoys:
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1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:
Yes, the advance of the Crimean based forces eastward towards Mariupol took 3 days to develop, but it is happening. It will be interesting to see what happens when it runs into the Ukrainians who have been manning the front for 8 years.
However, the attack westward towards Odessa seems to still be experiencing significant problems. The pitched battles at Kherson seems to have taken the steam out of the attack. Several attempts to get behind them at Mykolaiv failed.
Steve
Agree. Supposedly there were air landings similar to the ones seen on Gostomel airport, with similar results.
By the way, there was another air drop around Kyiv that as well resulted in disaster, but I cannot find right now the Tweets about it
Also...
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9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Strange to us in the West, but there's a long history of Russia using Ministry of The Interior (law enforcement) troops as special forces. Most notably in the fighting for Donetsk airport in 2014.
I think it's a recognition that Russia doesn't have the numbers of military special forces it needs for infiltration operations. Something that Russian police are trained to do as part of their normal job of keeping the population of Russia in line.
Steve
I mean, I understand that those units could be used in active fighting operations. What I find striking is that they are used as the point of the spear, and that they are going in completely unsupported. Maybe they thought that Kyiv was about to fall? There were Russian saboteurs in the city, maybe they got the wrong information that they had taken over the Rada?
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Regarding the situation on the front:
It seems the Russians have been massing artillery all day long against Kyiv. Tonight and tomorrow are going to be critical for the battle for the city, and such, for this war:
Unfortunetly, it seems the Russian army has broken throught in the south and is able to manouver freely in the Kherson area and Zaphorhizia. They have reached the nuclear plant of the area and are closing in Mariupol, most likely with the intention of surround it. They also seem to be near Mykolaiv (This might not be true honestly. There are reports of MLRS fire in the area but it doesnt necesarily mean that Russian forces are approaching just yet. Althought they usually use MLRS as preparation for actual attacks)
For the rest of the front, Kharkiv has been the scene of battles all day long, yet they have not been able to break throught the defenses. The situation is similar around Chernigov.
The most concerning situation is the south in my opinion. Specially if they are able to cut Mariupol. The good thing is, as they have failed to break throught Kharkiv, there is not going to be a full encirclement of the Ukranian armies of the Donbass just yet
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More about Russian poor planing, and this is quite the story. They were sending units of riot police dashing into Kiev on their own:
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4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
I'm completely baffled that Russian vehicles would be left to run out of fuel like this.. We're not talking the end of WW2 here, but a war that has been going on for three days now, less than 100 km from the Russian border in some places. How is it possible for a modern army of a powerful country like Russia to have such poor logistics? After preparing for the war for a year now?
If we go by the thread that I posted earlier, it seems that the decision from the Biden administration of publishing the date of the start of military operations actually paralized decision making for some time, and delayed the invasion. During that time, the forces deployed on the border actually ate up their supplies. Hence their poor logistical situation
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1 minute ago, Rinaldi said:
Has their been any confirmation that the Bosporus has been closed to Russian military traffic yet? I've seen a post above but that contradicts earlier info, right?
Zelensky has made an appeal to Turkish officials to do so, that has been taken mistakenly as confirmation. As of now, Turkish official have made no comment. There are some problems with them going ahead with such an action:
1. Montreaux convention doesnt allow to close the strait, even in case of war.
2 Doing so would be similar to enacting a no-fly zone. Its an action that has to be enforced via hard power, and will result most likely in confrontation between NATO and Russia
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Also:
There seems to be a huge russian attack from the direction of Melitopol towards Mariupol right now. Lets see if the Ukranians are able to avoid encirclement
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Somewhat graphic content (I think no dead bodies are shown, but still just in case):
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I have until now avoided to post any combat videos or the aftermath of such actions, but I decided to make an exception with this one, due to the impressive nature of the footage. A russian armored column ambushed and destroyed by Ukranian forces. You can see that guy carrying a NLAW, and some russian vehicles burning.
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Some very bad news:
If they go ahead with this, they are both definitively losing the war, and their minds.
Also:
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An interesting thread about Russian poor performace and the reasons behind it:
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13 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:
If that's the case, the rational move is to think very hard as to whether an insurgency is worth it. A second best is arguably better than turning all your cities into piles of ember. You can blame the Russians. I can blame the Russians. But the city in ashes will be Ukrainian.
And as such, its the Ukranians who will make the decision to keep on fighting or not. Not us. As of now, they seem to have decided to defend their homes from foreign occupation. Its our responsability then, as their suppossed allies, to support them
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Also, in reference to air superiority:
Plus those IL 76 that were shoot down, it was Ukranian Aircraft who did it, not ground AA
EDIT:
Those are the Russians casualties as claimed by the Ukranian army. Probably the numbers are somewhat exagerated, but honestly, seeing all the videos out there, and the conditions on the ground, I do not think they are that crazy.
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17 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
I think the average Ukrainian would spit you in the face.
15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:And this is, victim blaming.
Couldn´t have put it better myself.
Now, some news in reference to their possible commitment to the conflict and the referendum:
. Despite the map, Kaliningrad would not be cut off, unless they also close their ADIZs.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by CHEqTRO
Honestly, no idea. I would say that they abandoned their vehicles after finding themselves without support and probably nearly out of fuel, irrelevantly of the condition of the ground, but who knows really.
I mean, the T90 does seem to be stuck looking at the video. Not so much the 2S3. After losing the support of the T90, they decided to abandon the SPG? What were a tank and a self proppelled gun doing there by themselves, anyway? So yeah, who knows.
Edit:
There are a lot of reports of other abandoned vehicles on roads, and of lack of fuel. Hence why I think the abandonement of those vehicles is more related to poor planing and lack of fuel, rather than mud.