CHEqTRO
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Posts posted by CHEqTRO
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1 minute ago, chrisl said:
Distraction to get NATO to send some equipment to sit in Kosovo that might otherwise be shipped to Ukraine.
Yeah, that benefits Russia. But Serbia? What do they gain with this? Getting Belgrade flattened again is worth having the Americans distracted?
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More bad news. Curiosly enough, the Spanish prime minister was on a state visit to Serbia (He literally said yesterday that he hoped that Serbia could join the European Union, and that he supported the Serbs about the Kosovo issue, XD. Link in Spanish:https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/presidente/actividades/Paginas/2022/290722-sanchez_serbia.aspx ) . He was supposedly going to stay until tomorrow. Well, it seems he is going to cut his visit short.
3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:This is simmering on for months now. Not that much new. Overview Article from 10/2021 here:
Tensions rise at Kosovo border as number plate row escalates | Kosovo | The Guardian
Of course. Just as the Ukranian war was
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"Yet"
10 minutes ago, billbindc said:KFOR is already established. Serbia is going to get spanked hard if it tries to invade Kosovo and Russia isn’t going to be able to do much about it.
Yeah, thats the astonishing part. The Serbians are about to commit national suicide. Honestly, the only reason that I can come up with as to why the Serbs are about to declare war against NATO, is if they expect Russia or China to do something. If not, I definitively do not understand what is the reasoning that they are making.
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Some news unrelated to the Russo-Ukranian war, but definitively related with Russia´s war on Europe:
Nothing confirmed yet, of course, but it looks, from someone that doesnt know that much about the Balkans, ugly. I am actually asthonished with this move. One thing is to stir trouble in Bosnia using the Sprska Republic. Other thing is to invade Kosovo, which is under (supposedly?) American protection.
Are the russians about to escalate the conflict in Europe? The Serbians must have some kind of guarantees if they are going to go ahead with this, thats for sure. Obviously, it might end in nothing, but you never know, and the rethoric coming from serbian officials is definitively dangerous.
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2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:
But retaking the north bank of the Dnipr is a long way away from retaking the land bridge.
And it's not about what we think, it's what Putin can get away with forcing Russia to think.
.... So restating my prior case, if the liberation of Kherson (north bank of Dnipr) does not come with the effective destruction of the Russian armies currently occupying it, it is tragically NOT decisive, at least not by metrics that matter in terms of Russian regime change (and reinvention of Russia on more constructive terms for its own people, not to mention its neighbours and human civilisation in general).
....While if it does include decisive defeats of the Russian armies, then by definition the door is open to the restoration of the 2014, and perhaps the 2002 frontiers. In effect, the UA has cracked the code, as the Americans did in Normandy and elsewhere.
But nobody has shown me a convincing path to that yet.
At the very least, it allows Ukranian troops operating there to go to other places, namely, the Donbass or the Zaphorizia front. Obviously, if those Russian units are able to scape, it would have been a missed oportunity for the Ukranians, as any offensive towards Melitopol would probably encounter whatever the Russians are able to salvage from Kherson. Plus the whole political fallout inside Russia in case of having those units encircled would be extremely juicy.
Still, those units are going to get attritioned to hell, and they will get out mauled and combat ineffective (unless the Russian order a withdrawal, which would be surprising, for political reasons aswell), so there is that.
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3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:
This is probbaly very accurate depiction of things. It's worth to note in this context that already 2 months ago there were reports of Russian officers (or Russian-minded Belarusians, even retired SU career offcers back in service) taking care of Belarusian units, and we see unprecedented scale of manouvers, security checks and troops moving around.
Right now analysts dealing with Belarus speculate Lukashenko is desparately trying to fight for his own loyal cadre to be kept in charge of his own forces. Thus his strange and erratic messaging last months.
Also it's more and more obvious to me that Kazakhstan expedition -that so many Central Asian analysts tried to explain in geopolitical terms, even talking about New Silk Road- was actually giant cope cage for Putin to give him extra conviction about resiliance of his VDV troops in taking airport, riding downtown and shooting surprised crowds. One piece of self-confirmation machine that spinned acording to wishes of the Czar.
Interestingly, Lukasehnko has ramped up the rethoric these last days, whih coincide with the nation wide training exercises and movement of troops to the Ukranian border.
Now I am curious which supposed Ukranian governmental entety is going to call the belorussians, of all people, for help, in order to defend their sovereignety. If they had a figure like Medvedchuk in power in some region of Ukraine acting as the """"""real""""" Ukraine then maybe, but they dont so, who? The LDPRs, which their whole reason of existing is being a threat to Ukranian sovereignity? Wouldnt that be something, having Pushilin calling for the maintainment of international recognized border of Ukraine.
We will see what cames of this, but IF the Russians intend to keep the war going they are going to need to mobilize, so they are going to need to declare war to do that, and so, supposedly, CSTO will have to get engaged in it as well. Hence maybe Belorussian preparatives? Wouldnt be interesting, to see CSTO collapse, as central asian countries decide to reject the call to arms? Kazakhstan definitively seems unhappy about the whole ordeal...
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33 minutes ago, sburke said:
with some additions it makes total sense.
"NATO is indeed a threat to the Russian Kleptocracy, in the sense that any military or political entity with a better and more rational system of government by rule of law is a threat to a kleptocracy just by existing."
Meh, the type of russian government is irrelevant, what matters is their socioeconomic dynamics. Wether ist a kleptocracy, a democracy or whaetver utopic/dystopic way of government you like, it would not change that the current russian state, as a political and economic entety, is headed for collapse. At best, like I said, they can get to be a junior partner of Europe if they fully open their markets. Considering they still desire to be a great power, and they have all the right to desire so, that is not an option. Inaction will lead to chinese control of their economy (after the inevitable collapse) and political fragmentation.
"A Nato country has a lot of leverage over Russia than a non-one because it has the military backing to defend itself. Simultaneously, the biggest threat from NATO is that it impedes Russia to regain control over Eastern Europe and forces to be contained in their internationally recognized borders."
Exactly, thats my whole point. That is still a threat to Russia, whatever international law says changes little that fact.
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NATO is indeed a threat to Russia, in the sense that any military or political entity is a threat to another just by existing. A Nato country has a lot of levereage over Russia than a non-one. Simultaneusly, the biggest threat from NATO is that it impides Russia to regain control over Eastern Europe and forces to be contained in their current borders. It seems that the general consensus in the high spheres of the Kremlin, which I fully agree with, is that Russia cannot survive the 21st century with its current borders/influence. Best case scenario they are turned into a junior partner in the european market, or get swallowed by the chinese one, or both simultanuosly. Worst case scenario, the impending economic troubles added with demographic issues and pressure from their neighbours provoques the collapse of the russian state into several small pieces.
I think people are mistaken in seing this war as just a localized colonial conquest by Russia. the point of this war was to mark the first step into turning back as a Great Power in Europe, with at least some of the influence, and economic power of the USSR. I do not think the plan has changed, only its timetable. The joining of another country into NATO marks the strangulation of possible russian power, and makes the aforementioned futures more likely, or atleast makes the return to great power more costly. In that regard NATO, together with China´s demographics and industrial power, are the biggest threat for the Russian state in the 21st Century, and that will not change no matter who is in control in Russia.
The idea that the Russians felt threathened by the possibility of US missiles in ukranian soil, as a lot of pro russian repeat, is indeed extremely stupid thought.
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So, after reading the article, key points are:
- They are going to send a battery of Selenia Aspide AA missiles, on their surface to air configuration.
- There are 40 Leo2a4 that were previously mothballed that the government is trying to reactivate to be sent to Ukraine
-There are 6 Leo2E (Leo2a6) in Latvia that will serve to train ukranian crews initially
-Supposedly, ukranian crews will eventually came to Spain to train in the Leo2a4s
-It seems that the final intention is for the tanks to be sent for actual combat usage, however that is still far off, and the plan is for them to act as training vehicles as of now.
Edit: Seems that the idea of sending those mothballed Leo2a4 is not new, as it was already discussed back in april 18, so maybe the reactivation process is somewhat advanced?:
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Take this with a huge grain of salt, but it seems that Spain its going to deliver tanks (supposedly Leo2a4, although we have a large number of M60A3 in cue for retirement that would make more sense for us to give to Ukraine, honestly), as is reported by ElPais, the (un)offcial tabloid of the government.
Huge caveats, we need German approval first, and we dont know what the number of sent tanks would be (I highly doubt that there would be that many). There is also the possibility, that this is the government testing the waters to see the popular reaction, and hence why it was allowed to be published, but there is still no real commitment to it. Also, lets remember that the vehicles that the spanish army supposedly ceded to ukraine were quitly returned back to Spain. Maybe they are trying to sell it as they giving the tanks to Ukraine for combat usage, but they are intended for training in Latvia, to be later returned.
Nevertheless, huge news for Ukraine if true, as it marks the precedent for western tanks being sent to the country.
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14 minutes ago, Huba said:
Hear hear! In Poland the only parliamentarian left party broke all their "tankie" connections on D+1 and is supporting giverent in their policies. Far right OTOH is already trying to capitalize on anti-Ukrainian sentiments - without success. For now...
Being fair to him, while its true that the center european left has been mostly pro ukranian, that cannot be said for the left here in Western Europe. I, of course talk from the experience I have here in Spain, but from what I see, the same can be applied to the British isles and France. Funnily enough, while the left is generally pro-russian, even the center one, with the extreme left being very rabidly so; a big part of the extreme right is somewhat pro-ukranian, in contrast to our other European partners. There is a lot of "Trumpist" that are pro russian thought, but that has more to do with the current american president being a democrat, rather of what they think of Russia or Ukraine, i feel.
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17 hours ago, Huba said:
Well, in regard to this, Zelensky had this to say:
He mentions it around the 5:30 minute mark. So, I guess maybe a counterattack did happen around Sverodonestk?
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Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:
This was already settled month or so ago directly with Turkey. Finnish PM, president and FM have had (often multiple) talks with every NATO member and made sure the road is clear. Turkey has stated to support Finland ascension to NATO.
https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000008718096.html (translate works)
Yeah I know. They are most likely trying to just get something in return, or trying to publicly appease somewhat the russians. Still, in a moment where unity is needed, these kinds of statements are the opposite of helpful.
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A whole russian (supposedly reservist) squad armed with Mosin Nagants. As the OP says (a notoriuos pro-russian, by the way) , you have to wonder why they are not given even some old AKM, rather than the Mosins. Lack of easily accesible 7.62x39 ammo, maybe?
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Edit: AKD was faster on the trigger. I was too, too slow
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So, it seems that the russians are going to go ahead with their threats and cut the gas flow both to Poland and Bulgaria. Funnily enough, that would make the Hungarian line the only one still supplying gas to Europe, which crosses through Ukraine, and is still operating, despite the war.
This coincides with the germans saying that they are ready to embargo russian oil, but not gas, mind you:
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They sent their favorite clown, so we can be sure that something is definitively going to happen in Transnistia (or at the very least they want us to think so)
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29 minutes ago, Huba said:
Plot thickens:
Hmm they have been asking for recognition for some time, so I guess that would not be it. So, what other decisions can they make that would be meaningful in any way? They are already occupied by Russian troops, and its not like they are going to get joined by more any time soon. Are they going to ask for annexation? An ultimatum that Moldava recognizes them or it means war againts them? A declaration of War against Ukraine? All of these options seem preposterous to think about, but I do not see any other decisions that would have any real impact.
I mean, thinking about it, maybe they are indeed going to formally apply for recognition, but this time the russians do have the intention of recognizing them, so they are going to do some theatrics like they did with the DLPRs. We will have to wait.
Edit: Well, maybe there is some merit to the possibility of they starting hostilities against Ukraine. If the Russians are still fixated in taking Odessa, once the supposed ofensive start from Kherson towards Mykolaiv/Odessa, those Transnistrian units in the rear would be a headache for the Ukranians. But for that, the russians need to assemble a sufficient force to strike towards Odessa in Kherson, and we are not seeing that as of now, so
(Maybe we are getting Maskyrovked with all the attention given to the Donbass, who knows)
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Also, it seems that the transmiters that were blown up were actually the largest AM transmitters in Europe, and they covered all of Ukraine. From those, Russia was broadcasting their propaganda into Ukraine. With that information, we can mostly confirm that indeed they were likely blown by the ukranians or moldovans (I suppose that propaganda was also used against them), rather than this being a false flag event.
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41 minutes ago, Huba said:
Transnistria update:
Regarding that, there is supposedly an exodus of civilians, however, no proof or source was given, so
Nevertheless, it is clear, that something is going to happen there in the following weeks if not days.
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Something is going on in Transnistria:
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
The Serbian president never came to me as the sharphest tool in the shed, I will give you that. Have you seen the video of the inaguration of some train with Orban? You should search it, I have not seen Orban show such clear discomfort ever.
Yeah, the Russians are getting desperate, thats for sure. The serbians appear to have gone mad. Even if the war stays in the borders of Kosovo, it is worth to get their army mangled for esentially nothing? Or I am to shortsighted, or the Serbs are expecting something from the Russians/Chinese. Either that, or they are extremely delusional about western weakness.