Kinophile

Yay 

He didn't launch it, because there was no need to do it while costs could outweight benefits; support for Prig was tepid at very best and passivity of the apparatus very much goes with package of the system Putin himself devised, so he probably didn't expected great and genuine deeds of confidence in him anyway (as clip on eve of the war visibly demonstrated). Also, worth to remember he is not bloodthirsty tyrant, rather KGB guy who has many files in his secret closet with kompromats on all his cooperatives. He  murders only when he is forced to. And Russians appreciate that, as strange as it sounds.
There is a lot of tuth in that, but note many of beforementioned gentlemen could secretely act in accordance with Putin or even being his messangers, who did a lot to extinguish fire caused by sudden march of Wagnerites and negotiate the problem rather than further fuel civil war. Certainly Zolotov could, being rare example of his personal collegue and actual friend. We all were amazed here with the fact that old Prig didn't immediatelly end with his head on Kremlin walls, but that was smarter and more stable solution for Putin himself, I'll give him that. I don't read it as weakness, rather proof that times changed a little and Kremlin currently does not prefer to finish things the old, gorish way. Blood looks bad on Armani suit.
Well, I prefer to exorcise the Ghost of Historical Analogy before it start to scarry people in this thread again, giving us another 10 pages of arguments.🫠  Events could be interpreted that way, but it's very optmistic to be honest and even if true, unlikely to shorten bloodbath in Ukraine. There are no visible cranks in entire system on the scale of 1905 or 1917, not mentioning the fact it is designed very differently, more resiliant to stress (bloody mafias, they were always quite flexible) and working in entirely different geopolitical environment.

UKR Island-class patrol boat was hit by Lancet about 18th of March on Southern Buh river near Mykolaiv. The point is about 45 km from frontline. Damages and crew losses still unknown. As told chief of "Back-and-Alive" Taras Chmut he saw aftermath of Lancet strikes inside some equipment, which were hit - he said explosion of Lancet looks very effective, but inside mostly all not so terrible and if explosion doesn't cuse intensive fire or ignition of ammo, in most case equipmnet can be repaired. 
 
 

Yay 

Yay 

K-2 battalion of 54th mech.brigade again in action and makes us happy with own exellent videos. 
Here is a video how K-2 battalion HQ controls and manage process of the battle - 6 of Russian armor moved through Zolotarivka village (Siversk direction) on positions of 1st mech battalon of 54th brigade. Combined operation of mortars and artillery of 54th brigade (participated 120 mm mortar, D-30 howitzer and MT-12 with indirect fire) and FPV team of 118th TD brigade. Russian column was destroyed on AT-mines and arty fire. 5 pieces of armor were immobilized, one tank withdrew and was hit by FPV, but survuived. Disembarked infantry was eliminated by grenade frops from Mavics and by small arms of infantry - total 42 ememy infantrymen
 

Hmm I never subscribed to this vengeful nonsense either, if only for its massive simplifications (you definitelly have people of great civil courage there like Kara Mourza or, more controversially, Navalny himself; a pitty so few of them). But on other side that doesn't mean we should look at the world through pink glassess and project on Russia our own expectations how authoritarian system should look like (like folks still waiting Muscovia magicaly falling apart into ethnic pieces). This picture is often created by mediation of liberal Russian emigrees, who mostly try to avoid difficult issues, stick to safe topics like corruption and their conclusion is usually that Russians are just fooled victims of bad old dictator- which was btw. Navalny's greatest sin. Self-pitty is their driver here, not empathy, and that is why so many Ukrainians are pissed on them for.
As I understand their reactions, they are already sensing return of comfortable, relativistic narration "not us, it was Putin's fault" that West fell pray to so many times in history. While in reality it's Russians' long-lasting, deep-rooted mix of collective passivity, brutal domestic culture and historically- proven shauvinism that let them here; Putin is their creation, responsibility and lot. Note it is neither still not North Korea level of control; Russians are not cut off from information like Koreans and have basically unobstructed freedom of movement both internally and abroad.
Practically, we have no means of determining what Russia would look like within softer regime; it was political fiction long time before this conflict started. Important questions now are: how it's economy will hold in this, likely few additional years long war; If it will not hold well, what political and military means Kremlin is ready to apply; Will Europe have guts to supply UA through this period, especially when US fall out, and what would be our reactions to potentiall turmoil in RU (judging by our reactions to Prig's coup, not very proactive, but this attitude may change in time).

Shilpkin's study is not the evidence- it's approximation of voting anomalies based on various, quite complicated statistical methods. Russian liberals naturally like to call it "ingenious" and whole plethora of superlatives, but even if it is close to truth, it's still just estimate (there are others who put fraud ballots even higher numbers, like 30+ mlns). Especially that turn-out ratio is very murky this time due to war, immigration, online voting and overall atmosphere. Also note 51% isn't any barrier, since there is no one opposition candidate. It is certain some voting base is by default already "lended" by Putin to certified opposition, like Kharitonov (a communist candidate harnessing sentiments of mostly older people, who under more normal circumstances would also support current president).
     More solid are perhaps exit-polls made by foreign polling companies abroad, but they are naturally very limited in their usefulness too. There is interesting logic there- while in Western countries Putin generally lost royally according to exit polls (like last times, circa 15%; his support in Germany for example was unexpectedly low this time), in Turkey, Cyprus, Greece and several other states that absorbed a lot of Russian emigrees or are popular travel destinations,  his support was something like 30-40%, with accordingly high amount of refusals to questions.
So what we can only be sure is only that Russian society is depoliticized, hunkering down and Putin is only viable candidate. Like it was in last years.
About second part you are right- siloviki are crude when comes to electional frauds. They always were. But still I see no reason to see unexpectedly high official ratings of Putin as some sort of desperation on behalf of Kremlin or tectonic changes in Russian psyche. There are other, simpler explenations, including current propaganda needs, over-zelous local officials and overall geopolitical situation.
 

This chap is doing fairly decent videos trying to explain attacks and the context of them.
His content on the incursion into Russia has been useful for me to understand exactly where the videos have been taken. 
His analysis is not military grade but by adding maps and context it is useful, to me anyway...
Looks like Russia might have lost some long range bombers? 
 

I think the answer should be a big "No!". It would play right into Putin's hand because then he could just accuse the West of applying double standards. Something along the lines of evil NATO opposing Russia for bringing their brethren in Donbas and on Crimea home into mother Russia's arms after they actually voted to be part of Russia - when they themselves annex countries because they can.
Would also provide more ammo to the anti-NATO/US factions in the West (who don't necessarily love Putin all that much, either) who see NATO/US as just a bunch of warmongers.
If we want to continue playing this as "we are the good guys" then we really have to play by the rules. As hard as it is and knowing that Putin doesn't.

And it sounds like DJI is also backdoored so that anybody who has their Aeroscope system can spy on them.  Ukraine has disabled some of that access because they knew at the start that the DJI systems were backdoored.
Encrypting also consumes more energy than not encrypting. So if you're in an environment where you know Pvt. Conscriptovich doesn't have an aeroscope and probably doesn't even have a radio to hear from someone who has one, then you can eke out a little extra range without encryption.  It also simplifies your conops if you're working with all ad hoc equipment so you don't have to worry about the handshaking of the controller/drone pair to sort out keys.  A lot of what Ukraine is using are drones that are literally homebuilt by people who have boxes of various COTS parts.  And after a bit of poking around (certainly not comprehensive) it seems like hobbyists have mostly not cared about encryption.
Some commercial drones, mostly for gov't, law enforcement, and big corporate clients who can afford to spend a lot of money for a small number of drones with data security seem to have it, but it's not widespread beyond that.
I'm sure we'll start seeing at least moderate encryption of the video feeds in Ukraine. It's not a hard thing to do, but it's not the default for hobbyist drone kits.
This video has some recent discussion on how widespread data security is for drones (it's not), and commercially available ones are expensive and not what you want to use for FPV bombs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5-wF63lCXw
 

https://www.nzz.ch/english/energy-guru-daniel-yergin-im-sick-of-the-discussion-about-energy-transition-ld.1821620
I asked Vladimir Putin a question at the economic forum in St. Petersburg in 2013, in which I mentioned shale oil and gas from the U.S. He literally shouted at me and said that shale gas was barbaric – because he knew that it would compete with Russian gas.... 
It was a very rational calculation on his part to speak of an oil and gas weapon – except that it failed. And it failed because of the shale revolution in the United States. If it hadn’t been for shale oil and gas, Putin would have prevailed. But there is a cost: European industry doesn’t have access to cheap Russian gas anymore.
But Putin’s problem is what to do with this gas. You can't just store natural gas. He has to look east, he has to integrate his economy more deeply with China and reduce the historical tensions between Beijing and Moscow. But there are contradictory messages coming from China.

Kosovo being smart. 
 

Ref economic grind:
 
 

Kosovo being smart. 
 

This is what I'm thinking about ref Seababies in the Black Sea.
UKR could start sinking RUS Maritime trade, starting with ships carrying stolen grain. 

Kosovo being smart. 
 

Kosovo being smart. 
 

Two Russian BREM-1 ACRVs tried to steal our abandoned Leo2 near Terny (Kreminna direction), but "Azov" FPVs didn't allow to do this
Later "fat FPV" of 1st National Guard brigade "Bureviy" finished off one BREM completely
 

Free-Russia fighters of RVC in NE part of Kozinka village. Russian tank got projectille in side, but, alas, too close range, the HEAT hadn't time to activate.
Graivoron district of Belgorod oblast completely out of electricity - power substation was destroyed.

Suddenly - Romanian volunteer unit "Getica" operates in Belgorod oblast (on the video you can hear Romanian language). Tank with LRL flag also has seen as well as Ukrainian tanks
Belgorod is gradually turning out into Kharkiv 2022. Deficite of food in supermarkets is beginning, people either hide in houses or flee from the city. Attack on Belgorod oblast is sensetive blow on Russian economy. Belgorod oblast is one of not many prospering regions of Russia. It gives to country many of meat (especially pork and chicken) - up to 11% of total production, milk, sunflower oil (up to 16 %), 39 % of iron ore, here concentraten many machine-building factories, so this turmoils and "uncertainity" (C) can undermine production, trade and taxes, which Belgorod gives to central budget
    
 
Interesting in Russia, which always was showing how "Kievan junta 8 years have been bombing Donbas" there is alsmost full censorship on what now happening in Belgorod oblast. Russian VKontakte social media started to block and delete posts and comments od Belgorod citizens about shelligs, destructions and hard life in the city. Hordes of bots actively deny any successes of free-Russia forces in border villages

It's a nerf gun but still... Shiver. 
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C1ERDLCIWaf/?igsh=MWF4aGk1Nmd4cmQ3Ng==
 

There were other issues too
https://www.oglaf.com/ornithology/

Long but fascinating video on AI training. Not super specific to the war, except maybe it is...

This is what I'm thinking about ref Seababies in the Black Sea.
UKR could start sinking RUS Maritime trade, starting with ships carrying stolen grain.