The_MonkeyKing

Three week training for Flakpanzer Gepard is raising some eyebrows. I hope and presume the training has been ongoing starting from the announcement week and this is just some sort of final live fire field exercise period.

indeed. Missile type(s) seem to be M30 and/or M31. Meaning the most modern smart ammo US is currently using. The extended range variants of these are left out (for now). The DPICM variant is possible but I think highly doubtful because of politics of these weapons. some references for details on the systems (only caveat being he is too critical of the Russian comparable systems):

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1531920140165689344?s=20&t=qilwZBwD_BX530Ft9UWXTQ clearly Norwegian M109A3GN in Ukraine

Ukraine is going to get the most colorful of artillery arms in terms of equipment... I guess common type and standardization isn't that big of a worry. Maybe in the sort timespan of this war 1-2 years it doesn't matter. No overhauls or major maintenance relevant.

some equipment news: Ukraine defense minister states M109 in service. big news stating US MLRS systems going to Ukraine:

Well, I must add, T72 is a wide term. There are variants that are close enough to equal western kit. Like T-72B3 Obr. 2016. Or the top of the line Polish prototype modernization kits for the PT-91. Fortunately most of that kit is now gone. The winner now between Russian T-62 and T-72 now depends on the upgrade package and maintenance level. I am sure there are situations T-62>T-72 but still T-72B3 Obr. 2016 >>infinite>> T-62anyvariant

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MATADOR

https://www.instagram.com/p/CeBgm9dM_Y9/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y= Once again. crazy footages and of course there is a drone shot as well...

aaa, good clarification. I think my point stands even with ATACMS. The problem is not availability, it is the escalation risks. US has the largest stockpiles in the word. (and now the second worst adversary just emptied its own stocks.) Off course Ukraine has targets for thousands long range strategic missiles. As we see with Russian missile strikes in Ukraine, there is always infinite amount of targets in the deep rear. Prioritization. For comparison Finland has about 200 JASSM. So Ukraine might need at most 1000 strategic missiles as a dream scenario.

I think US can afford to give away equipment even from its active roster... Even if US gave away all of its MLRS systems. There are a lot of complementary systems to fill the gaps (these can also be expanded temporarily to fill in) and backfilling will happen with production being scaled up (example javelins already being 2x production now). More details on the matter in this video: For comparison, Poland just gave away 1/3 of its tank fleet. Comparable percentages in multiple other European countries as well with other systems. US will not even notice its support in the big picture even with it getting a order of magnitude larger. Also I believe lots of this US capability is earmarked and exists to kill Russians. I believe this is exactly what it is doing when given to Ukraine? So Russian capability lowers and US demand for capability also lowers (at least in the short term).

Any sources or educated guesses when then next major US aid package is going to be announced with details? Ukraine seems to be drumming extremely hard for in the information space HIMARS/M270...

Excellent point about the IFV. These T-62 would be just that but mostly worse. Some added protection especially when comparing to these cardboard soviet IFVs. Only reason to do this is if they really really don't have any better options. (and there should be lots of better options)

Older tanks cannot play the MBT role on the battlefield. But these can still be useful in other roles like supporting fire. Arguably better than nothing on the tactical scale. In CM you have a task of clearing a village. You can have T-62 platoon to go with your motorized company or not. Easy decision, I want that firepower even if it means only shoot and scoot at static positions with extreme caution to not lose them. Strategic level "profitability" might be another story (like logistical train for an old and a new tank is similar and also the personal cost)

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-may-echelon-with-t62-tanks-arrived-in-melitopol-occupied https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-may-t62-tanks-with-additional-diy-armor-spot-in-polohy T-62M being spotted inside Ukraine and nearing the front lines. unbelievable Not saying there isn't a role for them but damn, I though the T-72 pockets would have been way deeper. Or as Kofman suggested maybe there are indeed some B/C-category formations that have this equipment and are being deployed.

Excellent Kofman thread: "The overall military balance in this war still trends in Ukraine's favor, given manpower availability and access to extensive Western military support. That will show itself more over time. But the local balance in the Donbas during this phase is a different story. 10/" "I think we shouldn't overstate the significance of the Russian breakthrough at Popasna, but also consider the implications. Are UKR forces going to be in a position to conduct a major counteroffensive in the near term, or will both sides face a degree of exhaustion? 13/" "In my view it is too early to make predictions on how the battle for the Donbas will go. Ukraine may lose territory in the short term, but Russia faces major problems with sustaining its military effort in the long term, or holding on to gains. The war could become protracted."

Even almost 30 visually confirmed lost. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html Confirmed deliveries over 200-300. Might be significantly more.

Military told the pentagon that the "M777 is xx% less effective without the electronics" pentagon answered "Then we will give the Ukrainians xx% more of the systems and ammo" solved

Great info! Thanks.

I wonder can we see anything similar in the footage as with the M777. Meaning electronic(GPS ext.) systems missing.

To simplify, everyone agrees that relatively Russia is getting weaker and Ukraine is getting stronger when time passes. Ukraine waits until maximum discrepancy in power and then commenced major operations.

If truly the main APC equipment is YPR-765 Dutch gave a lot more of them than expected. At least a hundred or so

Yes, the commercial blockage can be enforced only by planes, helicopter, mines, subs ext. Basically anything that can hit commercial vessels. We are going to have to see some form of western guarantee of freedom of navigation. Enforced by the west as well. This is maybe relevant a half a year from now.

Does US actually even have any land based anti-ship missiles to give?