The_MonkeyKing

https://streamable.com/dme6ft This one one looks like a clear MLRS strike (Tochka-U submunitions?). Lots of data and different angles. Someone is going to have their work cut out for them to piece this together.

video of the first explosion at the dock:

Great points. Especially that armored/mechanized armies might start to move towards "great power weapon" status like battleships ext. in the past. And maybe great power will give them up in time as well.

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tm2s82/russian_landing_ship_orsk_destroyed_at_port/ excellent drone video of the aftermath. One Alligator-class total loss, two Ropucha-class retreating, both on fire, one significantly.

This is untrue especially so for modern APS equipped tanks. For example M1A2 sepv3 trophy It can be argued that operating older tanks against top of the line AT weapon system equipped enemy might be called obsolete. And even this can be mitigated with appropriate tactical usage.

Pretty sure the Russian propaganda posts had no effect. I am sure UKR has good sources on the area and know about the ship concentration.

Russian propaganda themselves claimed Tochka-U strikes shot down there couple days ago. Maybe some got though. I think this would have been historically big accident in military naval accidents if it was that (not the biggest but still).

Yes really. Now I am ready to say 100% sure. Questions now are was it only one ship, will it sink and what else was hit in the harbor area.

scratch one Alligator-class

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-air-force-pilots-fight-russia/

Winter war was totally comparable to current UKR situation. Only difference is 80 or so years. Soviets going for an unjustified attack with extremely low morale, unrealistic politically motivated operational plan, insufficient force and getting bogged down because of many factors like in Ukraine.

Michael Kofman and Andrew Monaghan 6h ago. recording

Finns treated Russian PoW's with modern western standards. (of course Russians didn't learn this until getting captured) Winter war was in 1939 before "eastern front". And the Finnish treatment of PoW continued through the continuation War to 1944.

I don't know. If we look at history in the winter war Soviet troops were extremely hard to dislodge when they got to some place and dug in. The morale was extremely low for the soviets but this didn't effect the defensive performance that much.

What stands out to me is how much ISW is using Ukraine official sources. Must be that they have proved themselves to be reliable.

Indeed, if something like the 2020 protests were to happen now. Very bad situation for the Kremlin. And this is a real possibility.

and Russian are practically entirely tied to rail supply. If this continues the Kiev front WILL COLLAPSE in matter of weeks just because of the supply situation.

I was talking about the patriot systems that the countries gifting the S300 want as replacement for their gifts.

That is too bad. I don't think anybody is going to be giving away Patriot systems... And they are not going to be buying them anytime soon.

The main question is do they actually want these systems for themselves or are allied based systems enough?

Well, these older islander type missiles fly high and relatively slow. Comparable to kamikaze fighter plane coming at you (with high flight trajectory). We are used to American missile strikes in the past and these have been done with nap of earth flying cruise missiles. (some cruise missile strikes in Ukraine as well but not that many and no significant interceptions on these I believe)

MI-28 and KA-52 actually firing in the air to avoid combat? Not one but two doing this. Can anyone definitely say there is no tactically legitimate way of using rockets like this? Any doctrine for this?

I will be disappointed if won't see a frying pan launching to orbit after Javelin crashed trough the cope cage. Filmed In 4k from a drone of course.

More niceness: