Kraft

I very much appreciate those posts, and hope I will see them in even greater quantity x)

This is objectively true. All the new PD games are 'streamlined' DLC filled garbage bags.

Only today about a dozen videos of wounded writhing Russians getting picked apart by near dead on grenade drone drops. One guys on fire running through a field, one drowns in knee deep shallow water because of spinal injuries or something, disturbing to say the least.. Oryx tracked 6 russian tanks down, 15 vehicles total yesterday. 30 claimed by Ukraine today. Seems Putin is intensifing his efforts to invert the countries age distribution by advancing on Vuhledar.

I think the argumentation is, that he was unaware of the risk. He overvalued the power of his military, undervalued Ukraine's and undervalued Western economic and military resolve. Compared to his first massive land grab crimea, and the Donbas slaughtering, neither of these factors had any value, the west did nothing, Ukraine could not resist much (too be debated Im sure), his army bravely captured all objectives and reports surely showed the cunning skill of each commander. I think there are some indications for this, among others the battleplans, the trucks carrying parade gear and military band equiptment, the pre-written and untimely released article about the fall of Kyiv, no supply reserves etc. His military planning wasnt geared for a war with solid frontlines, with a lot of VDV boys getting to pay the bill for that blunder. I may be pessimistic but I so not think the West would have done even 1% of what is going to Ukraine now if the government had fallen and this would be an insurgency now

But I replied to that, a deviation from the status quo requires a reason as to why it may be the case. Me telling you apples tomorrow will levitate, it is up to me to prove why it shouldnt follow current situation. Unless you assume Putin rolls a dice every morning. There are some lines in his head. Those, in my believe, strongly align with his ability to keep on living and ruling, not arbitrary lines on a map. This evaluation in my opinion strongly goes the way that the little tactical gain is vastly offset by the strategic punishment of the escalation and possible involvement of conventional annihilation, that will lose him this war very quick and is more likely to see him end like the last Tsar, than if he just declares the war over, blames his generals, etc.

There were some RU posts about a ukrainian video showing a DIY suicide drone assembly line with containers that could contain gas, I have no clue on this subject - but there has been no video of it in use. (It would be weird to film the assembly of it, but not publish the results)

Because my understanding of your idea is: red line = homeland in peril. For which the definition of homeland came up, some suggest colonies arent. My point: if it is homeland (the not de-jure regions), there has been no response for close to a year - why should there be now. Because if you argue that tomorrow, he will nuke because Kherson remains in UA hands, then bring up a reason why that is the case, instead of saying, its always possible. What makes you disagree on my point that this is about what Putin sees as his best personal outcome? Why would Putin press his luck and see if the west is bluffing with the promised conventional retaliation ( a 100% lose scenario if it happens, for the upside of gaining a marginal, local, *not* war winning improvement on the battlefield). Vs try to play it off as "established security understanding with partners in the west", much like he called his Kiev failures a "deescalation" with "respected partners". Why would he believe getting the Russian army, airforce and navy in Ukraine wiped out is a better situation for himself than calling the war a diplomatic success and pretending it solved something like hes been doing all this time. For which do you think people in Russia would rather storm his palace?

With the losses they are cumulating there I get the feeling this is already more than a probe. So far it doesnt seem like the attacks really paid off, despite giving Oryx some more work.

Just because Putin declared they consider some parts of Ukraine as Russian doesnt mean he will start ww3 for it. In fact, there is ongoing and daily proof that Russia does not Nuke anyone even though they have lost and abandoned major parts of their "homeland". Im pretty sure by now Putin has seen enough reality despite the initial poor information to conclude for himself that his army is not going to grind itself back into Kherson. The only chance for ww3 that I wager is if he perceives certain losses to be his personal downfall. Given the complete lack of hostile response from anyone in Russia to anything concerning the war, except getting drafted themselfs in which case people just leave, I dont reasonably see how losing even crimea would suddenly change the usual apathetic Russian reaction. Even now de-jure Russian border towns and cities are getting shelled, his response? Ignore and carry on.

I dont think Ive seen a single video call video where the parents are upset or worried. Its so awkward and weird when they straight up dont care.

Igor "Bereg" Mangushev, who was showing the skull of a decapitated Azovstal defender while talking about the annihilation of all Ukrainians on stage, has been shot in the head with a 9mm at a 45% angle from behind. The bullet is still in his brain and his condition is declining. He was stationed behind the Frontline in a rear unit. https://t.me/notes_veterans/7779

It also shows how overpowered CM direct fire control is, in a PBEM, you would just tell the tank to shoot right on the foxholes even if he cant see, because you can through the spotting drone. Irl it seems he couldnt even get a warning to the tank for >2minutes, let alone direct its fire.

I found this on TG so no idea how accurate.

The Ruble is a terrible measurement for anything. Its not actively traded, you cant buy it, Russians cant sell it. What determines its value? Its meaningless in anything but propaganda value which is exctracted and maintained by the Russian central bank.

The city was pretty much encircled by day 3. So any orders at the time would have been to hold and make the Russians bleed on strongpoints as the real performance of Russias army was still overprojected. I also think any attempts at a large pullback through the south would have been a feast for the at the time still operationally significant RU airforce (+indirect) at a moment where the whole front was being formed and daily movements were in kms from the southern axis. It would have also started the summer "grind" a lot further inwards as Russia really wasted a lot of fighting force both in commitment and KIA smashing through the city turning it into rubble. Those troops werent there to advance elsewhere while fighting and a large portion is now rotting in the ground nearby when at the time, Russia was severely Manpower handycapped and had to throw in sailors, etc. Also those "thousands" of captured.. watching any footage from the underground bunker or when the prisoners were paraded really dispells that, the UA fighting force wasnt nearly as big as Russia likes to claim.

Under current leadership that is, as Julia Loffe said in the interview I posted, her biggest fear is this war outlasting Bidens presidency. While it probably doesnt spell an immediate end, the isolationist tendencies in one of the freedom parties give Putin a reason to drag this war for as long as possible. I am unsure how much of the long term help is already written down and cant be changed but I doubt a creature similar to Trump would feel obliged to respect any written agreements. Im not from the US but I hear opinions on Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan are very negative.

For 2+months its mostly been Wagner PMCs inflating the number. They are dying like flies but nobody even in Russia cares about murder convicts getting smashed by artillery.

Just rewatched that I have to apologize to DCS, the 3rd simulation run with bad weather actually worked, wow. Maybe the Russian military should do some editor testing before sending its flag ship out alone

I think I saw a video of someone trying to remake the sinking in either that or DCS and failing horribly because it was modeled after its paper statistics, not the bulk head rusted through kind of characteristics you see in the actual Russian navy

https://www.jstor.org/stable/44697732?seq=18#metadata_info_tab_contentsh I think the shell trajectory => momentum of the shell influences the flight path of the shrapnell and shell fragments.

https://t.me/robert_magyar/371 11:20 is where that scene comes from. Notice the Russian outside dying in the most random way.

I'd fire any advisor telling me the Russian army is capable of taking over Europe, with US boots or without, on the spot. What makes this even more nonsensical is the fact that there are already thousands of US boots on the "front line" that would be among the first to get into combat. Killing Russians and protecting Europe(=US interest) has been the greatest unifier in US politics since atleast 2 decades.

Probably PFM-1 mine with 40g of explosive, they are specifically designed to maim and cause wounded, not kill. Definetly enough power to make him reconsider his life decisions. And if he is lucky, he gets to tell his grandchildren how he lost all his toes.

This should burry the ridiculous goto excuse that Scholz doesnt block others from sending Leo2s and that this is all just evil Poland gov bashing poor German gov. I'd pay good money just to get a hint as to why the SPD/Scholz behaves like this, at the expense of pretty much everyone except Russia.