Kraft

Yes that is a Leo2A4, and lots of M113s. Its quite the **** show and definatively not just a probe or force in recon with the amount of vehicles (14 in camera shot) piling up and blowing in the same mine belt Id say its a high budget reenactment of the Russian winter offensive as of yet https://t.me/WarZoneInc/47985

No Kontakt

Girkin predicts the offensive will fail. Used chatgpt to summarise the wall of text. Same talking points but aviation effectiveness highlighted.

Seems the first non fake Leopards were spotted

Best case, 7/8 not yet out: lacking AMX, though, there has only been a still from a drone as far as Im away, no troops nearby/actual wrecks

Poland and baltics, anyone else who may be a possibility?

1: the few guards stationed there offset tens of thousands of civilians affected? Besides, previously flooded areas are kind of worse to travel through as infastructure is wrecked, roads are swept away,... A few empty trenches are easier to overcome. Maybe in orc logic washing away your fellow countrymen is a valid strategy, Id assume you'd not want to kill your own just as much as any one commander in Ukraine. 2: then why not blow it earlier, it would be dry by now and pose a threat to russia, while the offensive is starting to begin. 3: yes, captured by CCTV no less, now why has no footage been released, proving it was a Ukrainian strike? Or do you think Ukrainian commandos evaded the CCTVs while placing the charges? Who controlles the footage and location? With how sturdy the dam was, tanking himars with close to no damage (remember how many weeks of daily bombing the bridge took) you would reasonably expect someone in a trench to film the massive spectacle of shelling no?

Do we know yet how many AMXs have been lost? Ive seen evidence of 3 maybe 4 but oryx/lostwarinua havent updated yet

Except those "defensive positions" were manned so thinly a group of guys on rubber boats could cross and blow up a command post with the only casulties coming from sea mines. Its a paper thin line, that now cannot be properly crossed, sparing Russia from committing troops and heavy equipment there to counter Leopards etc.

On the probability scale I'd weight it about as likely as the Moskva having sunk from stormy weather though.

Girkins opinion on the recent fighting

that user is a serb who is so obsessed with russia he had to take a 6 months twitter break to cope after kherson was liberated. Seems he was able to restore his faith/cognitive dissonance levels in Ru superiority.

A tale as old as time itself!

Head of the melitopol "we are together with russia" group Sergei Didovidyuk had an explosive day Source https://t.me/truexanewsua/74164

There were plenty of strikes captured and uploaded daily while AD network wasnt working so well.

Arent you the one bringing his arguments forward?

What did I morally equivalate? You mentioned saving lifes of own people outweights some collateral damage ie Nagasaki/.., with which I agree. The critical point here is staying proportional. One could carpet bomb every village in which an insurgent in Afghanistan/whereever was spotted, 2 weeks ago. Would probably save some lifes on our end, would it be the right thing? In that sense I ask, with mass surrenders of entire German army formations, frontline being pushed back and breaking at increasing speed and the end in measurable (<3 months super conservative) distance, the red army in throwing distance of the city,.. was killing those civilians worth it to knock out some optics factories with a gigantic firestorm? How many scopes/.. could they have possibly produced in the remaining weeks and how many civilians died for each one? I dont think the numbers make sense to call it proportional at all.

A nail in the coffin in mid February 1945? Sir, Nazi Germany was dead and buried by then. Those bombings may have had a real effect on the war in 1942.. not 1945. They only denied the Soviets those factories, for the price of close to 35 000 women and children.

Regardless if terror bombing works (nuclear does).. I dont think any target, even if purely military, makes it worth to risk goodwill and clear perceived moral high ground in the supporting nations. With debris and such, its just bad luck until a drone wreck crashes into a family car/.. there are hardly targets worth risking that image damage. Im sure those drones could have hit another oil depot somewhere in Russia and done more

Production and procurement are the issues, money moves these factors but with diminishing returns and hard physical limits. Btw, if anyone here has a 3d printer you can send fins, tails and bodies for drone dropped munitions (VOG, M430,..), these are always needed. All info is in subreddit /r/Fins4UA

What a quality assessment.

The clip at the very end where they gun down the Wagner in his hole, is from before 23rd April, thats the date when I downloaded it from their TG. I am sure other clips from the video appeared earlier but I cant find them, I have too many muddy trench videos.. Pretty sure this is a fight over the road of life, not flank counter attacks Interesting to note, there are 2 released drone POVs as well as GoPro footage of this single engagement, maybe even the thermal drone too.

Wasnt this source discussed before as pushing pro-russian narrative in disguise? Like all the 'deeply concerned for Ukraine' western media outlets

Debt has very little to do with "75 years operating beyond its means playing 'global superpower'". Vast majority of it has come with the last 3 presidents, so from 2009 onwards, which mostly saw a downscaling of outside commitment.

? Can you clarify your point here?