Kraft

Zaluzhnyis assistant Major was assasinated, according to his TG. Other sources claim it was a result of inproper handling of a German DM-51 grenade.

First picture of the M1A1 in Ukraine (as far as I am aware) I hope they get enough time to put up anti drone cages.

All good points of course and this is just an (-other) anecdotal picture from my biased sample, but I have followed the syrian conflict relatively closely over roughly 300k dead there I have not seen a single picture of such behavior, and zero from UA*. I remember half a dozen weird pictures like this from russians and Im not going through vk to find them *with the exception of one nonfamily scumbag stealing sentimental patches from a pilots grave

The russian mind. Dmitriy, follower of mother earth, now rests in it. His wife:

Never did I say something about 'you' specifically, when I am refering to the west, I am talking politicians. About the article, it doesnt mention sums anywhere, just promises for nato and "support for whatever it takes*". *conditions apply, to be revoked at any election. You cannot with a straight face tell me there are still legitimate escalatory problems with sending taurus missiles 600 days in. If there is a will for nato acceptance, it will be done, if not, there will be a thousand stones in the way. Its a promise build purely on trust, unlike previous guarantees, which were signed and supposedly obligating. 32 Abrams tanks in a war which has consumed 688 UA tanks, there obviously are limits to these promises and treatees, why should I believe this support will be different in 10 years time, when other issues create conditions under which Putin sees a good opportunity to strike? Should Ukraine then cede the next cities and maybe the Black Sea, because its too much effort to take it back? The salami slice has already happened 3 times in Ukraine, excluding Putins previous wars!

And so Putin and China are affirmed, the west will get tired and throw the towel long before them, despite suffering not a single casualty and mostly dumping expiring cold war storage. How depressing, but I guess this solves some information asymetries, namely how much security guarantees of 1994 are worth, about 1.5-2 years of drip-fed and postponed support, we cant risk escalating after all, only god knows which city Putin will nuke if a dozen Taurus are send. But I guess it will all be different when the peace is broken some years down the line, regardless of political climate, economic hardship or other wars..

I generally agree with this. Although I think this lack of Infrastructure is not as much an issue, and will be resolved within time. China can tie russia a knot and throw that lifeline, they've sunk enough billions across the world to debt trap contries vital to shipping lines (or buy 25% of German Hamburg harbour infrastructure (still, in 2023), as a funny sidenote) A little cash to get this useful puppet will not be an issue cheap labor cant fix and the profits for Russia will be lower, but ofc remain high enough to finance Russia just so it can be a continued problem for the West, while also getting a good deal on it. I disagree, because the same Minsk dance has been done before. Ukraine style operations, they are doing it every day, if the war froze, Russia could start another Avdiivka assault the day after, there is no safety and the paper is worth as much this peace will be written on. All it takes is a little instability, another Donald Trump, EU wide unlucky constalation of Parties, which could potentially deadlock support and this show starts for the 3rd time. And while the west gets cozy and forgets in the next 10 years, or starts facing climate issues, or has another Donald excourse in international relations management, or needs trillions to deal with China, Russia builds up (2014/16/23 deja vu). So many things that will be more important than the current <5% of defense spending aid given, which already seems like the greatest burden, while UA is in active war for survival. Now imagine how much this will be a budget issue that can be reduced, if there has been "peace" for 5-10 years. This is the shakiest, "victory" "win" one can claim, which really, is just painting a failure, namely the defeat of the Russian threat. Any kind of negotiations like this are a tumor that will erode stability for the next decades, because the second the ship gets a little tilted, this peace will break. The "red line" has shifted again

The point is that the king still sits on gold even if the peasents starve. We are also far from that - so what exactly is this "punishment" of economic "isolation" /read this as a trade reduction in russias case, Russia still very happily trades with the rest of the world and vice versa, some companies pulled out, others made great profit there. All one can argue is that this economic reduction reduces Russias potential to build as many weapons as they could but a) they are maintaining the war good enough, b) judging by North Korea (which is completely isolated vs just the west doing - less trading - not nothing), which still hangs on after half a century and remains a threat to SK and the world. So how much does this "economic pain" really deter Putin, or other autocrats ? In my view, not at all.

This is not Putins autocrat perspective. He wants to restore a great empire and make history books, costs are calculated differently Putin does not care about a few hundred thousand dead convicts, immigrants, muslims, whatever Economic damage is only an issue if it reaches a nations breaking point. Look at conditions in Venezuela, absolutely abysmal, child death rates are at 25% due to starvation etc etc etc - where is the regime change? - it will take far far more until apathetic russians will roam the streets demanding change, they are content with a bag of Potatoes for a dead son, after all. When he feels weekness due to instability, or other autocrats occupying the mind of the west, this will all start again, maybe in Ukraine, maybe someplace else and it signals exactly this to China, sacrifice a few peasents and get to paint the map. This is already a confrontation between the West and East and just like when the soviet union keeled over, the first thing the west wants to do is to get back to business as usual, as if Putin will just Accept Minsk3 and will behave like a dog in his corner, this kind of irrelevance to the world fueled his whole empire restoration motives

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/ Weird history this guy has with his articles

I wonder when the western armies will start to manufacture them en masse and not in tiny quantities, if at all

PoWs with tied hands shot by the Russians

Now all of my opinions here are just conjecture but I do not think anything outside the main 2 population centers matters much for Putins power I think a while back, someone posted an article about Russian losses calculated per population center, where the two big cities were bearing 0.x% of the deaths (vs double digits in the eastern parts), I doubt it has increased much, as the Regime carefully keeps these people away from danger. Replacing dead convicts with immigrants is just an extention of the previous, low political cost option, taking just 1% of the male muslims would already replace 150k, without additional buryatis,..., convicts and so on that will still be available, there is a years long way to go at current loss rates before Moskow and StP population start to feel it. Now long story short I enjoy watching them burn and die but I do not believe anymore that human cost is what will deter Russia from continuing this before Western support ends. Comparing Vietnam US sentiment or Soviet Afghanistan reactions, for some reason there is just not the same reaction. Current parties claim support and years long financing but political landscape is fragile in Europe and US and even current support is enough to retain more or less balance, but pushing through another 30, 50, 100km^2,.. of mined land - I do not see that possible with current donations, judging by the >100 vehicle losses taking just Robotyne

Nobody cares for Russian convicts, not even russians care about them. Its free manpower to throw away with no families to pay or suppress. They come at minimal political costs to Putin, while achieving goals just the same. This war is not won by reducing Russian penal colonies to 0, or whoever minority edge group they will gang press into service next, I hear Muslims are on the menu now. On the other hand.. Loosing fortress town Avdiivka and having a retreat slaughter through a narrow path like this, overlooked by the heap and FPV drones,..,.. would be worse than Soledar collapse in scale and severity militarily, and another political loss after failing to reach Tokmak and losing Bakhmut. So all I do is hope and donate to the 110th, so It doesnt come to this.

I guess that puts an end to the southern offensive. I hope Soledar/Bakhmut does not repeat, because this will be even uglier.

T-55 1958?

Seems like Rus Forces captured the waste heap north of Avdiivka. That should put the coke plant under pressure no? If that falls supply routes would be quite difficult, I can only see an almost 6km long road through open fields leading in and out, which is 1.5km to the frontline at the closest

Cant shake the feeling this is directed at my post, care to elaborate?

- Russia controls Bakhmut - Russia got rid of its prison population, net societal gain. Nobody misses them and will march through the streets in protest. - In return, UA had some of the better units exhausted, among them 93rd if Im correct and tens of thousands of some of the best people dead and many more wounded, crippled. - Keeping supply line was very costly, watch drone footage of the road of life, its littered with UA vehicles that were taken out there, trying to evac and resupply the city with the frontline hundreds/sometimes just dozens of meters away. Loss rates were not nearly as in favor as in other areas, with street fighting leveling the playing field a lot. Operationally, I dont think it matters but if you count it, small Russian win. Strategically -> politically, they won. In a raw balance of what was used up, Russia also comes out ahead far better than in any other engagement in this war, with the exception of the current counter offensive. _________________________________________________ The fact that the Russian army can throw away hordes of tanks and infantry and level the frontline with massed artillery, as if it was 2022 tells me that they do not suffer "shortages" as much as people would like them. Major use of airpower, both fixed wing and rotary, yet the only confirmed downed aircraft are friendly fire in a completely different place - funny but also tells a story about the state of UA frontline AD. It seems to me that there are enough resources to hold the line in the south for a quite a while longer.

t.me/fedorenkoys/131

I think this footage is a month old atleast

I did not know this

I sometimes see the argument about a fringe minority in the Republican Party taking the reigns. Nobody will oppose Trump when he (just) cancels all aid to Ukraine, his voters want it.

Battle for Petropavlivka by the International Legion.