Haiduk

And how, did Russia in previuos years also put ultimatums to USA and NATO on background of maneuvers? Did Russia threaten Ukraine with "consequenses" if we do not agree on Russian conditions around Donbas? Did Russia claim that Ukraine prepares large-scale operation on Donbas? Maybe all these years Putin was preparing to "final showdown" with huge maneuvers. Because this is not too easy to move such numer of trops, maintain logistic, control etc. And now he decided all prepared and he can challenge the West and Ukraine with own bluff. But nobody scared in that time. Maybe not big war, but something must happen. Today Kadyrov, the president of Chechnua, appealed to Zelenskiy, naming his "clown" and demanded "to execute Minsk agreements to avoid of bloodshed". Also I can recall words of Piotr Tolstoy, vice-spaeker of Duma, which he said 13th Jan: "Modern Russia have to be expanded to the borders of Russian Empire" and his words for October on TV-show: "There is no any Ukarine! Luhansk and Donetsk already Russian! And all Ukraine will a part of Russia - there will be no any Ukraine!" And here typical evening on Russian TV-show. Propagandists divide Ukraine in own drerams again and again

T-80U of 1st Guard tank army, which several weeks had been deployed in fields near Maslovka, Voronezh oblast in 260 km from the border, were moved by railway in previous two days through Belgorod to Vesiolaya Lopan' in 15 km from Ukrainain border. This is Kharkiv direction Unvisible phenomenon before - whole squadron of old An-2 biplanes in Russian sky (and this is not a single video). Probably they will use experience of Azerbaidzhan to use them like unmanned drones to uncover Ukraniain air defense or wasting their ammunitin on these false targets

Current situation - БТГ means "battalion tactical group, BTG". Russian forces in Transnistria depicted like a brigade, but really have three battalions in 200-300 men each. But they can easily can transform these battalions in full brigade or even more, reinforcing them with Transnistrian units, which personnel have Russian citizenship

First party of Stingers arrived to Ukraine from Lithuania. Hungarian C-17 deployed the cargo.

Andrei Piontkovsky wrote on Friday in own twitter: "Putin will feel like a Lord of the World today. From the morning long gut of Bidens, Schols, Macrons, Popes, Greta Tunbergs will call to him, begging him do not start the war. After such Viagra you can go to Paradise! And elsewhwre just will croak" (he meant Putin's phrase how "Russians, if nuclear war happen, will become martyrs and go to heaven and the enemy of Russia just will croack, because they even will not have a time to repent") And one more twit of Aaron David Miller about this "Putin has climbed up a tree so high with demands so excessive and a military build-up so threatening, it’s hard to see a diplomatic ladder to climb down. It looks increasingly like a put up or shut up situation with the situation on ground favoring the former" Putin really "climbed up" too high. By old tradition of USSR he traded fear in exchange for some benefits. But in this time he (and maybe he and Xi together?) rised own bets and demands on the level, completely unacceptable for West and got nothing. To keep own face for Russians, like "the ruler, with whom the world regard" he MUST to do something. Due to sanctions threat much easy way for him to recognize DPR and LPR "republics". Russian State Duma will consider this project on next week. Recently Russian officials made a statements, that recognition is unwanted now, because will make positions of Russia weaker. But after 8-hours negotiantions in Berlin on 10th Feb, Ukrainian delegation withstood with heavy pressure of Russia, Germany and France and rejected to sign even formal declaration - Russian plans to force Ukarine to take Donbas back on Russian conditions failed again. Thus, their moods can change. Already several weeks Russian TV is pumping the theme of "Ukrainain offensive on Donbas, encouraged by their Western masters". All Russian and Belarusian troops movements explain like a reaction on "agressive intentions of Ukraine". So, what we can do, when West rejected all demands about guaranties? Full scale war? And to lose all money, villas and palaces in the "hostile West"? Let recognize "independence" of "repuplics", make security agreements with them, will supply them with a weapon officially and in this way we will "save people of Donbas from genocide". Victory!

Really strange track. About week ago our InformNapalm OSINT community got information about unclear preparation of unidentified unmanned vessel in Sevastopol and some Russian seals activity near Kerch strait. There was a supposition, that Russian prepared "false flag" attack on Kerch bridge to create Casus Belli.

Sometime Flightradar depicts wrong tracks as if Russian airliners are flying through Ukrainain airspace over Donbas, but indeed it's not true. Intermational insurance companies can stop flights insurance over Ukrainian airspace because of high risk of war, which will cause cancelling of all flights since 14th Feb. Yesterday KLM cancelled all routs to Ukraine. Today the flight of our SkyUp from Madiera to Kyiv was suddenly terminated by demand of plane lessor from Ireland. The plane landed in Moldova and passengers departed to Kyiv buy buses.

Meanwhile on another side of Russia... Encounter of Russian Pacific Fleet large antisubmarine ship (frigate) "Marshal Shaposhnikov" (pr.1155M, NATO code Udaloy-class) with US Virginia-class submarine near Urup island. Russians claimed US submarine was in Russian waters, Russians used some "appropriate means", whereupon submarine "used a self-propelled simulator to split the target image on radar and acoustic control means into two parts and retreated from Russian territorial waters at a maximum speed" https://tass.com/defense/1402259 "Marshal Shaposhnikov" on the photo. The ship was under modernization since 2016 and in 2020 returned to service. It got Anti-ship missiles Uran and and cruise missiles Kalibr-NK as well as new equipment.

RQ-4 night mission over Ukraine. Main attention to northern direction (Kyiv)

Spiegel claims US told own allies, Russian attack on Ukraine expected on 15th Feb: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/krise-in-osteuropa-cia-rechnet-mit-russischem-angriff-kommende-woche-a-2e10a45f-b6eb-4b1a-b692-2edc64c04adf?fbclid=IwAR311dLEB1Z853n-qd6LsDDxElKeBp_deEwf9PQGSdafzqIGiqT7ycXii1Y US embassy in Kyiv is evacuating all personnel, who do not occupy important positions. Russian MFA made a statement about "optimization of Russian embassy and consulates employees number because of risk of probable provocations"

T-72B3 are visible on many photos and videos - they have thermal sight. Though, there are also enough older T-72B/BA/mod.1989, arrived from Central, Syberia and Far East Military Districts. T-90A have to be near the border too - for example 136th mot.brigade from Dagestan - their T-90A participated in Luhansk airport assault in August 2014. Last time their camp was identified as far as in summer in Crimea. Probably they still there, but maybe moved in other place.

Yesterday Russia issued NOTAMs, which closed approaches to Ukrainian ports on Azov and Black Seas on 13th-19th Feb. Restricted area spreads almost to 12miles territorial waters zone. In these days Russia will conduct huge naval maneuvers of all fleets. Also six large landing ships of Baltic fleet entered to Black sea, having troops and vehicles embarked onboard. After sharp reaction of Ukraine, NATO and USA, Russia cancelled NOTAM for Azov sea, but remained for Black Sea. Ukraine still have narrow corridor along Romanian coast, but most of large ships can't sail by this route. In nearest days Ukraine expected six large cargo ships with a coal. Also 95 % of sea export is a ratio of Black Sea ports and Ukraine can lost about 60% of export money for this week Russian Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) units spotted, moving in direction toward Ukrainain borders. Among them battalion "Sever" ("North"), belonged to Chechen Repuplic. These units can be used as occupation and law-support forces on seized territories. Several hours ago Biden told to NATO-leaders, Putin had taken a decision to go ahead with invasion. All US citizens should to leave Ukraine within nearest 48 hours: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/11/biden-ukraine-us-russian-invasion-winter-olympics On other hand sources of CNN claims USA specially makes much alarm to deter Russian intentions: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/11/politics/biden-administration-russia-intelligence/index.html Despite this the embassys of UK, Japan, Korea, Israel, Norway, Estonia, Latvia and Denmark warned own citizens to leave Ukraine as quickly as possible. Netherlands embassy is moving to Lviv in western Ukraine.

Next two US planes landed (14th and 15th... maybe...). Javelins and grenades for Mk19. UK plane arrived on eve with bodyarmor Osprey Mk.4 for territorial defense battalions.

Welcome here :

Russian invasion cancelled - after the warming their tanks have sunk in the mud Rostov oblast, Russia

Key phrase in the article: "Mariana Zhaglo, a 52-year-old market researcher". She obviously has high income. MUCH higher than avarage in Kyiv. Maybe she is owner of company or chief of department - I don't know and couldn't find detailed info about her. Though, many people, which enlist to Volunteer detachments with own rifles also have income, higher than average. For example, I can't buy even Saiga carbine (civil version of AK/AKM for hunting) for 500-700 $ You can compare our prices on AR-15 based riflels, for example in our the weapon shop network IBIS (1USD =28 UAH): https://ibis.net.ua/en/products/oruzhie-nareznoe41/search/ar-15-mw3/ And from Zbroyar, which developed rifles Z-10/Z-15 (based on AR-10/15), which now using in army: http://zbroyar.ua/katalog

We havn't Orlans. But this is neither Russian Orlan nor UKR Spectator M1, like claimed Belarus. Looks like DIY UAV, probably used by smugglers or even this drone was made specially for information provocation.

Since 2020 sniper rifle UAR-10 (based on Zbroyar Z-10) in 7.62x51 almost completely substituted SVD rifles, which almost exhausted own barrels resourse for years of war. But even before 2020, rifles Z-10 and some other in .308 caliber already were on armament of different sniper units. UAR-10

Due to newest information, now we have 377 Javelin launchers and 1200 missiles for them USA is going to send more then 40 planes with a weapon and ammunition. Seven already have deliverd own cargo So, what we received except Javelins and M141: - Mk.19 III grenade launchers - grenades for them - 7.62x51 mm bullets - MG belts with 5.56x45 mm bullets for M249 MG. There is unknown either M249 arrived too or will be next, or this is ammunitin for Ukrainain Fort-401 MG (licensed Negev), which has limited usage in National Guard - XM162 buckshot for shotgans. I don't know why this. Aditionally helmets HGU-56/P RWH and NV googles AN/AVS-9 were bought in USA, which will allow to train 25 helicopter crews for night missions. Before this neither Mi-24 nor Mi-8 crews had the ability to night flights.

Looks like after UK threaten to confiscate all real estate of Russian oligarchs, and US threaten with "killing sanctions", Putin will slow down. He expected "weak democracy" West would be afraid of his "thug style" ultimatums "NATO, take your s...t, get out to the line of 1997. Ukraine is our". Before this he saw only concernings, deep concernings, useless resolutions etc. So he was sure the West will withdaw again in front of his brutal force threat and concess him if not NATO withdrawal from Easterm Europe, but at least Ukraine only. Thanks to UK and USA (though, they have not so tough position like Brits) we have more chances to avoid a war in nearest time. And one reason, which can really turn away Russia from the invasion is not 2000 NLAWs and Javelins, but a threat to Russian elite $billions and property in western countries. But on the other hand this is heavy blow to the image of Putin inside Russia. The cost of neo-empire ambitions - 10 billions $ for troops moving (and the same sum to move them back), full fiasco with own demands, threat of sanctions, threat to elites fortune, strengthening of UKR army, confirming of NATO perspective of Ukraine and probably new military axis UK-Poland-Ukraine, which can be signed tomorrow in Kyiv. Good job, Putin! What we can expect? Main reason of conflict will exist further - and this is our existance like pro-western democracy state outside of Russian influence. State-formig conception for plebs of "Holy Russian world of trinity Russian nation, withstanding with thinful West" is dead without Ukraine. And because of this the war is a question of time.

This is uniform of border guard troops, which was subordinated to KGB. But Putin didn't patrol the border with a dog )

"Military" in a sense of "army man". I think, you will agree that methods of state security services are different from the methods of armed forces. If Shoigu or Kadyrov were on place of Putin, I think, Russia would have more agressive and straightforward policy than now. So, Putin likes to use indirect methods - establishing of influence institutes and agents if influence inside countries, bribing elites and politics, support of Russian and pro-Russian medias broadcasting, culture expansion, creating of conditions of dependense from Russian business or energy monopolies etc. The open war is extreme method for Putin and he can resort it if other "soft force" methods already will not work to keep own positions.

Putin is not military, he is former KGBist, so, first of all he tries to achieve own goals in indirect ways. It's ridiculous, Russian authorities on TV-shows talk about "USA and NATO want to grab our reach resourses", about "alien western mentality", "spiritualess thinful Western lifestyle", teach own citizenship about patriotism and suggest militaristic moods because "Russia in a circle of enemies", "NATO at the gate", but... Russian elites, including Putin, have billoins in western banks and huge amount of luxury real estate in "enemy western world". Many Russian top-officials have citizenship of EU, UK or USA. Their children study there or already have own business. This is main safety catch for open large scale invasion. For now.

Russia's military buildup near Ukraine has expanded to include supplies of blood along with other medical materials that would allow it to treat casualties, in yet another key indicator of Moscow's military readiness, three U.S. officials tell Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-russia-moves-blood-supplies-near-ukraine-adding-us-concern-officials-2022-01-28/

Don't forget, this smart guy told about "Ukraine historically is our land, which artifically was seceded by Lenin and bolsheviks". Also this smart guy said this "Why do we need such world, where will not be a place for Russia?" and about hypotetical nuclear war: "We will go to the paradise like martyrs, and they [USA&NATO] just will croak, because even will not have a time to repent". We have a deal with irrational crazy man.