Grigb

The Russian security forces are massively distracted crushing the last of Nalvany's movement, and ensuring no one raise in his place as the face of the Russian opposition. The guys who attacked the theater were probably at more risk of being randomly shanghaied into the Russian army than they were of actually get caught.

The issue is that I see RU Nats are very confused. There isn't any sort of war frenzy per se yet (except from few total madmen like Medvedev).

The primary issue now is that, according to rumours, the attackers do not resemble Ukrainians but rather Chechens. Ru Nats are currently confused.

RU Nat says Shpeznaz started clearing operations 30 minutes ago, which is at least an hour late. 

My fault. it is 30+50+10+10. Instead of getting regular sleep, I'm reading and translating at night. So, mistakes happen.

Avdiivka is significantly bigger. And not the whole Avdiivka was bombed.
All stories about Krynky is hell is nice to hear until they tell you that there are about 60-100 marines against:
 
Regarding nonstop drone bombing - Magyar: 
 
Regarding gliding bombs, yes, recently RU decided that it is safe now to bomb Krynki as usual. Only recently - 10.02.24
 
Nobody says it is easy there. But when a few dozen defend ruins of village against two brigades that Putin watches... 

No, I could not. It is UKR who is crawling forward there. Not RU. 

 
UKR do not charge into the line of fire in Krynki. They mostly do what they do in Avdiivka - defend it. And it is not a bad position to defend.

Alexe Kopytko, collegue of UKR Mashovets wrote several posts about losses. I am not going to translate them as they are aimed at the general public. However, I am going to translate relevant information.
UKR is a significantly more open society and country. So, it is much easier to find and count deaths using open sources. The oldest community in Ukraine that monitors War deaths is "The Book of Memory of those who fell for Ukraine".
Quote from the UKR news article [I recommend but I am not going to translate for now due to lack of time] about UKR losses up to November 2023
Second article [for the same period]
From Kopytko posts
Zelensky numbers are close to actual numbers. UKR is nowhere near the defeat.

BTW we forgot about this boi
@The_Capt

We have GrigB Intelligent Translation Services. During next week, the Russian Statistical Service will release a fresh report. Over the weekend, Russian opposition economist Milov will assess the campaign's strategic impact. If nothing bad happens on my end, we'll have a summary by Sunday night.

Though Germany position is... well, Germany position, the overall EU situation is not that bad in the long term (it's bad in short term).
I'm slowly summarizing RU Opposition economist Milov's recent report on the Russian economy. He stated that he recently visited the European Parliament and spoke to several EU MPs. There are both bad and good news:
Bad news - EU is politically bickering around Ukraine assistance, also faster work (for example enforcing sanctions) is not possible due to democratic bureaucracy of EU parliament. And it is unlikely to improve in the short term. Good news - EU core politicians know the seriousness of war and about their bickering and slowness problem. They are committed to resolve it in the long term (long term means around year). He cited an example: he was privately told that the EU needs to recruit 50 professionals to successfully stop Russia from dodging sanctions. However, this requires passing money through EU democratic procedures, which is extremely lengthy owing to the politicking of MPs from various nations. But eventually, the EU will hire them and cut RU off. In a year.

My fault. it is 30+50+10+10. Instead of getting regular sleep, I'm reading and translating at night. So, mistakes happen.

An attack on an ally is reason enough to get involved.
  
What you're saying is that the German government values legal justifications over alliances. And it begs the question: what if the German government finds a legal justification not to respect Article 5?

Though Germany position is... well, Germany position, the overall EU situation is not that bad in the long term (it's bad in short term).
I'm slowly summarizing RU Opposition economist Milov's recent report on the Russian economy. He stated that he recently visited the European Parliament and spoke to several EU MPs. There are both bad and good news:
Bad news - EU is politically bickering around Ukraine assistance, also faster work (for example enforcing sanctions) is not possible due to democratic bureaucracy of EU parliament. And it is unlikely to improve in the short term. Good news - EU core politicians know the seriousness of war and about their bickering and slowness problem. They are committed to resolve it in the long term (long term means around year). He cited an example: he was privately told that the EU needs to recruit 50 professionals to successfully stop Russia from dodging sanctions. However, this requires passing money through EU democratic procedures, which is extremely lengthy owing to the politicking of MPs from various nations. But eventually, the EU will hire them and cut RU off. In a year.

An attack on an ally is reason enough to get involved.
  
What you're saying is that the German government values legal justifications over alliances. And it begs the question: what if the German government finds a legal justification not to respect Article 5?

Though Germany position is... well, Germany position, the overall EU situation is not that bad in the long term (it's bad in short term).
I'm slowly summarizing RU Opposition economist Milov's recent report on the Russian economy. He stated that he recently visited the European Parliament and spoke to several EU MPs. There are both bad and good news:
Bad news - EU is politically bickering around Ukraine assistance, also faster work (for example enforcing sanctions) is not possible due to democratic bureaucracy of EU parliament. And it is unlikely to improve in the short term. Good news - EU core politicians know the seriousness of war and about their bickering and slowness problem. They are committed to resolve it in the long term (long term means around year). He cited an example: he was privately told that the EU needs to recruit 50 professionals to successfully stop Russia from dodging sanctions. However, this requires passing money through EU democratic procedures, which is extremely lengthy owing to the politicking of MPs from various nations. But eventually, the EU will hire them and cut RU off. In a year.

Though Germany position is... well, Germany position, the overall EU situation is not that bad in the long term (it's bad in short term).
I'm slowly summarizing RU Opposition economist Milov's recent report on the Russian economy. He stated that he recently visited the European Parliament and spoke to several EU MPs. There are both bad and good news:
Bad news - EU is politically bickering around Ukraine assistance, also faster work (for example enforcing sanctions) is not possible due to democratic bureaucracy of EU parliament. And it is unlikely to improve in the short term. Good news - EU core politicians know the seriousness of war and about their bickering and slowness problem. They are committed to resolve it in the long term (long term means around year). He cited an example: he was privately told that the EU needs to recruit 50 professionals to successfully stop Russia from dodging sanctions. However, this requires passing money through EU democratic procedures, which is extremely lengthy owing to the politicking of MPs from various nations. But eventually, the EU will hire them and cut RU off. In a year.

An attack on an ally is reason enough to get involved.
  
What you're saying is that the German government values legal justifications over alliances. And it begs the question: what if the German government finds a legal justification not to respect Article 5?

My fault. it is 30+50+10+10. Instead of getting regular sleep, I'm reading and translating at night. So, mistakes happen.

They are not charging forward. They crawl. This is their advance in 4 month and 16 thousand dead.

Their wild charge after capturing Avdiivka is 3.5 km. They aren't charging anywhere. They crawl and push. It is not strategically relevant. 

My fault. it is 30+50+10+10. Instead of getting regular sleep, I'm reading and translating at night. So, mistakes happen.

My fault. it is 30+50+10+10. Instead of getting regular sleep, I'm reading and translating at night. So, mistakes happen.

Abrams got destroyed because UKR committed Abrams at Avdiivka direction to battle in recent days. NASAMS got destroyed as part of the intensification of RU campaign against that illusive Patriot. Caesar looks like Bohdana. Archer is a combination of two videos. First conveniently stops at range when EW usually disables the drone. Second video, well, is not clear. And initially only the first video was published in TG. Looks like somebody realised that it is not convincing enough and decided to "improve" it. They always dedicate significant effort to destroy foreign weapons. RU general admission western weapons superiority is a sure sign they caused RU tremendous pain that cannot be denied. 
 

There is no political reason in Krynki. There was a huge political reason to defend Avdiivka.
 
RU arty cannot shell it properly because they are afraid of UKR arty. They can't drone it since the majority of the drones sent are destroyed. They can't bomb it properly because VKS fears Patriot (they don't believe in S-200).

As a result, they cannot containt it unless they apply consistent pressure to keep UKR on the defensive. As soon as they stop, the same thing (new bridgehead/bulge) will happen a few km closer to Crimea.  

Alexe Kopytko, collegue of UKR Mashovets wrote several posts about losses. I am not going to translate them as they are aimed at the general public. However, I am going to translate relevant information.
UKR is a significantly more open society and country. So, it is much easier to find and count deaths using open sources. The oldest community in Ukraine that monitors War deaths is "The Book of Memory of those who fell for Ukraine".
Quote from the UKR news article [I recommend but I am not going to translate for now due to lack of time] about UKR losses up to November 2023
Second article [for the same period]
From Kopytko posts
Zelensky numbers are close to actual numbers. UKR is nowhere near the defeat.