Raptor341

TheRevolutionReport   @TheRevolutionR1 · Follow UKRAINE IS LEARNING VIETNAM WAR TACTICS The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine adopted the tactics of the U.S. Air Force during the Vietnam War to destroy air defense systems on the front line. A tactic called “wild weasel” is when pilots allow enemy air defense… Show more    
10:44 AM · May 13, 2024    
 
 
 
 

Another Su25 shot down. Fourth in the last 2 weeks.
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3ksro7gnvaa2z 
 

Few points on EW - it has been effective in this war in eroding unmanned systems range and effects, but it likely won’t in the next one.  First off EW is very “loud” as one is basically pumping a bunch of EM into atmo.  These basically look like giant beacons to ISR designed to pick this up.  So in a peer conflict where one side is not being starved of long range precision fires, EW systems are going to be hunted by other systems.
But we know it has not been effective enough.  EW has bought neither side an ability to regain freedom of manoeuvre for mech forces.  So while it can erode UAS it cannot achieve denial or superiority.
And then there is autonomy.  No matter how many videos get posted people still have a block on this one.  UAS in the next war are all likely to have levels of full autonomy.  Whether it is complete or partial, no military is going to leave its unmanned arms vulnerable to falling out of the sky just because someone turns on EW.  Right now the UA has a bunch of civilian UAS they have repurposed to effect but a war in 5-10 years is going to see widespread us of fully autonomous systems…why?  Because everyone is watching this war.  Industry is going to explode in these areas because the advantages are simply too high.
So basically in this war we have a bunch of drones bought online with RPG7 rounds gun taped to them pulling off a 20% success rate (which is damned high) in what is likely one of the most potent EW environments ever.  The fact that some are looking down noses at the fact it takes more than one strike for these systems to kill a multimillion dollar tank shows how upside down we are here.  These systems are not only working, as challenged as they are, they are shaping the battlefield.  No large mech concentrations.  Tanks staying back 10s of kms right next to tac aviation.  When we actually see a tank shooting another tank it is a rarity to be highlighted, which is nuts from what we envisioned modern warfare to look like even 3 years ago.
UAS are not a fad, they are breaking war as we knew it…and frankly we should have seen it coming.

https://t.me/osirskiy/692
 

good stuff on the war today, w videos of the big UKR drone attack on RU.  Plus tanks going bavovna.  
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/17/2241190/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Mass-Ukrainian-drone-attack-meets-little-resistance?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
 

Zelensky: No reports of artillery shortages for first time in full-scale war
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-progress-made-on-artillery-shortage/

From february by Jack Watling at RUSI so I'm probably reposting old stuff, still good to review and compare to now, luckily it's good to see that the artillery ammunition situation is improving now in May.
https://time.com/6694885/ukraine-russia-ammunition/
 

The time tested method is convincing them they will die if they stay. 

Combo drone attacks; one can very well imagine how these work against an APS: Attack from two directions at once with two drones each, first drones deploys a cloud of chaff/aluminum powder, second drone punches through. 
 

Might it be productive for Ukraine to push another Marine battalion over the Dnpr, perhaps below Oleshki? Sounds like the Ukies don't have manpower to do much more right now, but even that might put another huge strain on the Russians at the far end of their line. It would certainly force an urgent response.
Mind you, they've likely mined the hell out of the entire river bank area, after Krynki. Some folks have posted about drone-AI remote detection/flagging/demining solutions but no idea whether that's still in the vapourware stage. 
Part of this Russian activity up on their northern front could be that their supply lines here are as short as Ukraine's, for once. Economy of effort to go with their 1930s New Model Army. Where are the horses?
EDIT:  I remain convinced Ukraine absolutely must retake Kinburn spit, at a minimum, to help shield their Black Sea coast from, among other things, Russian naval drones (they, or rather the Chinese, have no doubt already copied the Sea Babies etc.).  Especially if He Who Shall Not Be Named pushes a ceasefire in place.

This poster claims that with the current loss rate, Russia will be out of heavy artillery within the first half of 2025 based on counting satellite photos of Russian depots. Production rate is miniscule compared to losses. 152mm will run out before 122mm, SPGs will run out after towed guns do.
Mentions it is likely they will run out of usable tubes before that.
 
 

"A little more sprinkles on the topping, please."
Looks like some shells have made their convoluted way through the Ukrainian logistical system to the frontline.
 
 

Two times olympic weightlifting champion Oleksandr Pielieshenko gave his life while in service of the 47th Brigade

And
 

Might be confirmation for the airplane (reported as SU25) shot down on the Donbas front a dew days ago.
 

This is where we are at.  That thing is not a tank anymore, it is a slowly rolling pillbox.  And here is the thing, every tank needs the same level of protection.  No point in making a minefield safelane if every other tank coming through can be killed trying to come through it.  This video has a great shot from the cupola that really demonstrates just how little the crew can see and target.  Ways to kill it:
Road wheels and track are still exposed.
EFP on the sides and back.
Incendiary/fuel/fire.  That giant box on the back is going to hold the heat in and really raise risk of overheating.  Helping that along would not be a bad idea.
And of course..artillery, tandem warheads and good old direct fires from sniping tanks.
What blows my mind is that we are at this point in 2024.  This is how far things have gone in two short years.

Good interview.
General Hodges on Retaking Crimea, NATO in Ukraine and Russian Collapse
EDIT:
Some other news...
The U.S Army Just Unveiled The Newest Version Of Its Combat-Tested Bradley IFV
with 'Iron Fist' Active Protection System:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/the-u-s-army-just-unveiled-the-newest-version-of-its-combat-tested-bradley-ifv/ar-AA1o8T42?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=076c22a83e4c401ce1a03e613f3add05&ei=45

What he said! STOP going to Russia. for bleeps sake!

100km 155mm?
Is this the unholy baby of a missile and a shell?
If Ukraine can reduce the GPS jammers, these could have interesting applications.

There is a good Phd thesis in that comparison somewhere. I think by far the most obvious difference is that the Japanese upper classes considered military service to be the most honorable profession there was, and they meant it to. Their army did not consists of societies rejects. Russia seems to consider the war a chance to practice some quick and dirty eugenics, as it feeds the meat grinder with prisoners, minorities, and the poorest of the poor.
One of the things both cultures share though is that they have their roots an enormous societal disruption. Japan had the quickest, all be it arguably most successful, entry into the modern world of pretty much any country on earth, And Russia has seen its entire system turned upside down twice in a century. 

And a Su25 shot down is being claimed too
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3kronzlzdz22h
I'm hoping that it indicates that SAM resupplies are arriving. Is the 110th Brigade the one that relieved the 47th when things went a bit wrong the other day? I can't remember.