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Raptor341

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  1. Like
    Raptor341 reacted to sross112 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think service should be voluntary until that alone doesn't fill the need. When volunteers can't cover it, then the draft is perfectly fine. I agree that those that are pacifist or conscientious objectors should be allowed to fulfil non combat roles. I personally don't want to be in a foxhole next to someone who isn't there to fight, and believe that anyone else on the line would have the same opinion. With that being said, anyone who fails to answer the call and flees their country should have their citizenship revoked for life and not be allowed back in for any reason. I know it sounds harsh, but especially in an existential conflict like this one I think it is fitting. It is your choice to flee, but in doing so you should no longer get to identify with that country or nationality. It is an insult to all of those that stay and suffer, whether in the military or not, for that person to continue to have the rights of the others without shouldering the responsibility.
    As the CPT said, there seems to be a disconnect between rights and responsibilities in a lot of nations nowadays. Freedom isn't free and those rights come with a price tag from time to time. 
  2. Upvote
    Raptor341 reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Freedom ain’t free.  Someone has to stop Russia from doing what it is doing which is definitely not “perfectly fine”.  In reality the kid did not run away, his family did when he was 16.  Now that he is 18 and of age; he is “staying away”.  I think every citizen has a duty to protect their nation in times of crisis.  A duty to protect each other when threatened.  If they cannot or will not do that then they really are no longer a nation.  This is one thing I think we have lost, and it will come back and bite us.  There is a solemn duty in being a citizen, and even a greater one in a free nation.  It is one that takes sacrifice for the greater good.  Now this kid could be from a pacifist ideology or religion, ok there are a lot of ways to fulfill this duty to serve.
    What I disagree with is that is all fine for a young man like this to selfishly protect himself while his own people are suffering.  Running away to “embrace life” when Ukrainian children are dying back in Ukraine does not wash with me.  Personally I have been in two wars that really had not much to do with Canada.  We were really doing it for some greater global good (really did not turn out well in the end) but we all believed in it and honoured kids maybe a year older than this one who died in crappy places no one will remember in 50 years. The idea that one could “sit out” an atrocity like this invasion of Ukraine and still claim citizenship or ethnicity does not sit well with me at all.  It is shirking duty and letting others pay the price.   As we have discussed this kid does not even have to fight.  He can be in a support trade or work in industry or even humanitarian.  But his people and his country need him right now which is more important than how he gets to spend his twenties.  It is more important than him as an individual.  
    Mark my words on this, we have more of this coming.  The future is likely going to demand more sacrifice for the greater good not less.  We will have to stand or kneel in the end.  And right now to my eyes, that young man is kneeling.
  3. Like
    Raptor341 reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    All solid and fair points.  If Russia could exploit this succession of tactical advances and translate into something else we could be looking at a new ball game.  However, recall that after Severodonetsk we had some more leg jumping and then an exhausted RA folded like a cheap tent at Kharkiv and Kherson - tactical success does not necessarily signal operational success.
    The ability of Russia to continually plug away at this, at the loss levels they are sustaining is frankly baffling.  The losses the RA are talking, based on charts and figures that get tossed up here, are mind blowing - even halfing them to account for over-reporting.  The way to counter glide bombs is to wage a campaign against the RUAF.  Long range AD can deny but take all those ATACMs and start hitting airfields.  Then use SOF and UAS to hit them deeper.  The dangerous aspect is that the Russian may have finally found a way to make air power work for them and that has to be blunted.
    As to loss ratios…no one really knows.  I have no idea what the UA losses have been in comparison to Russians for terrain taken.  They could be high or they could be moderate. The UA has likely learned to disperse and they definitely have learned to use FPVs.  I am not sure if historical ratios even can be applied here given the shift we are seeing.  I am not sure UA defence has been static in this one.  It was at Adiivka but since then there is a more mobile feel to the thing.  I would not assume massive losses on the UA side.  They definitely have happened but whether they have been enough to create conditions for a UA operational collapse have yet to be seen.  Finally, while the RA have been upping the air game, we also saw evidence of Russian guns slowing down.  We are not seeing the WW1 level of fires we saw at Severodonetsk.  Nor do we have evidence that Russian fires have gotten anymore accurate or precise.
    Honestly, I am not at the doom and gloom point.  The UA is definitely straining but we do not see symptoms of breaking (mass casualties, prisoners, encirclements).  We do see high casualties for the RA but they are also still able to attack.  Until something really gives we cannot say one way or the other.  Now that US support is turned back on I suspect Russia will be forced to move off the offensive but let’s see if that unfolds.
  4. Upvote
    Raptor341 reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Something else to note, all accounts by foreigners serving or served in Ukraine, describe a conflict and warzone of unparalleled difficulty and scale outmatching certainly any conflicts the West has engaged in recently, with equality of arms being the most equal since Vietnam? Or more likely Korea? The experience in Ukraine has been attested to as very much different than the superiority enjoyed in the GWoT. 
    Ukrainians are on the back foot, and I certainly can’t begrudge any person staring at the months long drought of U.S support with anything but dread at joining the defense. 
    Which is why I’ve mentioned that political considerations are essential to success in the war, sure, Ukraine has littered Southeast Ukraine with the wrecks of Russian equipment but the overwhelming narrative favors Russia still, evidently the wrecks of Russian equipment aren’t defeating the headlines of “Russian advances” and while long term this may spell the defeat of Russia, the evident goal of Russia is to persuade the West to cut off aid in the short term, and for Ukraine to surrender, demoralized by lack of aid and enemy advances.
    This is why Ukraine needs wins now. And considerations of the now, of the near term are important for Ukraine to make it long term.
  5. Upvote
    Raptor341 reacted to OldSarge in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And CNN's Erin Burnett is calling her out for being the talk of Russian State TV:
    Here's what Russian media is saying about Marjorie Taylor Greene's push to end Ukraine aid

    'The Gipper' has to be rolling in his grave to know there are GOP members, like MTG, who are opposing the very type of bills he would've support - and being congratulated by our  enemies for it.

    A portion of the Ukrainian aid package is earmarked for expanding and modernizing US muntions production:

    "The Biden Administration has proposed that $3.1 billion of a much larger Ukraine aid bill be spent on munition production and modernization. "
    https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2024/02/army-aims-double-155mm-shell-production-october/393943/
     
  6. Like
    Raptor341 reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Vertically oriented solar panels are a thing, I just saw a whole video about it (w manufacturers/installers/users being interviewed).  They are not installed as fences, but can double as fences.  Installing solar panels as fences would be really stupid & expensive, unless these are old, worn out ones that don't work anymore.
    edit: By the way, california generated enough renewable energy to provide 100% of grid demand for for 30 of last 38 days.  That's california, the 6th largest economy on earth.  
  7. Like
    Raptor341 reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The one thing that the US is indisputably great at is logistics. I would say "days".
  8. Like
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  11. Like
    Raptor341 reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    From the strike on the airfield in Crimea.
     
     
  12. Like
    Raptor341 reacted to Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Prisoners under Wagner survived on average 3 Months, those under official russian strafbats only 2 months.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68819853
     
  13. Like
    Raptor341 reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not sure how comfortable I would be in a row boat of or Cessna around an active CWIS but fair points.  I think these problems are definitely going to have problems, some unintended and some very much intended.  Some bad actors will gleefully employ them on civilians to terrorize and as part of an overall genocidal campaign.  In reality there is no real difference between a cruise missile striking a civilian housing complex and a cruise missile carrying a bunch of assassination drones.  The drones will be far more effective and vicious but are basically doing the same job.
    I am saying that banning fully autonomous drones is a fools errand.  Hell, regulating them is going to be pretty damned hard.  Why?  Because they are potential war-winners right now.  Unmanned systems of all types are deterministic of outcomes.  As such they become, in an existential war, non-negotiable.  Some nations will try and remain on high horses - no doubt Canada will - but this will be as hypocritical as the nuclear equation.  Canada has no nuclear weapons and shakes a finger in haughty disapproval of them, but our very survival has rested upon the safety of the US nuclear umbrella…that we are not even paying for.  Unmanned will be the same beast in many ways.  Some nations will reject them but will be first in line to have them protect any troop contributions to a western coalition.
    The one thing I do not know is if unmanned stand as a 3rd shift in the nature of war yet.  Their impact on the battlefield is pretty much undeniable by this point.
  14. Like
  15. Like
    Raptor341 reacted to Fenris in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Footage from infantryman with 3rd Assault near Avdiivka.  English subs work. They end up having to pull out after being hit by mortar fire, sounds painful but hopefully not too bad, they manage to get out on their feet.  Interesting ~6:30 mark to see co-ordination of command, recon and FPV operator to attack the mortar position.
     
  16. Like
    Raptor341 reacted to Maciej Zwolinski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    But my point is that not only liberal democracies should be allies against a country which uses a war of aggression as means of policy and wants to upset the political balance. First things first - let's fight the aggressor together with everyone who wants to protect the status quo and principle of peaceful resolution of international disputes, and then the EU can drag the Ukraine over the coals over fulfillment of accession criteria.  They are different things.
  17. Like
    Raptor341 reacted to Gnaeus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's cut people facing an existential threat for them and their families a little slack. My country has plenty of things to regret under far less serious circumstances.
  18. Upvote
    Raptor341 reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Lets not go down the path of even suggesting that Ukraine is not worthy of our support if they do not have the same level of LGBT rights as North America or some parts of to use a Rumsfeldian phrase, some parts of "Old Europe" have.
    Personally I hope LGBT rights will improve in Ukraine because I believe what consenting adults do is their own bushiness. 
    But if a country like Italy still has a long way to go which I'm sure most people here know was a founding member of the EU and NATO, lets not get hung up on this issue while Ukraine is literally fighting a war for its survival.
    On a side note I had no idea Montenegro was so LGBT friendly until I looked at this map.
    Source: ilga-europe
     

  19. Like
    Raptor341 reacted to Maciej Zwolinski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That attitude is a huge mistake - this is what keeps the ranks of the West's enemies are always full. If the only ones who are worthy of support are those who share the - rather unique-  views of the West on social issues such as homosexualism, religion, ethnic minorities etc. then it is no wonder that finding allies in places such as Africa and Asia is difficult. Kabul University tweets about graduation of the gender studies class a couple of months before the Taliban stormed Kabul come to mind. It is an unforced own goal on part of the West.
    If the aim is to defend the post-Cold War order against an attempt to change borders by force of arms, then every victim of aggression deserves to be supported, regardless of his social policy. Think Kuwait 1990-1991.
     
     
  20. Upvote
    Raptor341 reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well, that's - sadly - true.
    However, Ukraine doesn't merely strive to be an ally but to actually become part of the West, the EU in particular. And since joining EU means submitting to EU jurisdiction, Ukrainian society will have to adapt at least some.
  21. Upvote
    Raptor341 reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It would be nice if Israel could finally provide some aid to Ukraine. I doubt it tho.
  22. Like
    Raptor341 reacted to ASL Veteran in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not trying to move the thread off topic any more than it already has, but apparently US, UK, and French forces (ships I suppose) as well as Saudi and Jordanian forces are assisting in intercepting Iranian drones and missiles.  I just thought that was interesting.  I also saw something about 'stuff' happening inside Iran, but I haven't watched or read enough about it to know what's going on exactly.
  23. Like
    Raptor341 reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Interesting ... will they also add on some aid for Ukraine?
     
  24. Upvote
    Raptor341 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Israel hasn't a border with Iran. Well, maybe Hezbollah proxy in Lebanon. So, they mostly will be needed in long range weapon, which USA rejected to give to Ukraine. Guys. Wake up. West, stucking on "tolerance, multiculturalism, diversity, inclusive, 100500 genders, LGBT, BLM, coala saving and carbon trail" lost sense of reality in that time, when dictatorships were arming, using western technologies to contest post WWII world order. WW3 is coming. It will not be like WWII, It will begin like several distant regional conflicts tied with one goal - to weaken West. And then... If this probes are not stopped, the global clash will begin. So, Iran-Israeli conflict maybe it's not good for us in short perspective, but probable weaken of Iran it's a good for future. If some of "Evil Axis" will get bright blow at own teeth, than less probability that West will fight directly in huge global war in nearest 10-15 years
  25. Upvote
    Raptor341 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well, it's began. Soon Israel will hear "mopeds" in the air. I wish good hunting to Israeli AD and to wipe out Iranian militray industry for Israeli missile troops
    Pro-Iranian group Katib Hezbollah in Southern Iraq claimed military operation against Israel. I suppose, South Lebanon Hezbollah will do the same later. It's a good opportunity to bomb into stone age one country of the "Evil Axis". But balls are needed
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