kevinkin

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/inside-the-russian-effort-to-build-6000-attack-drones-with-iran-s-help/ar-AA1fo979 Looks like a good target for clandestine NATO enable UA spec ops strike. Long and detailed article. A detailed inventory, based on data provided to the Russians by Tehran, shows that over 90 percent of the drone system’s computer chips and electrical components are manufactured in the West, primarily in the United States. Only four of the 130 electronic components needed to build the drone are made in Russia, according to the document. It's difficult, but this crap has to stop. If multi use parts can't be removed from the chain then beef up Ukraine's air defense big time. Not a big fan of RAND. But I just want to think ahead and did a search on "rebuilding Ukraine": https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2200-1.html Food for thought.

Good point. The battlefield is so deadly that it takes a lot of guts to move out of cover. And when the troops are asked to do so they need to have the confidence there is a plan in place to support/cover the move and the right systems to do so. That type support might not be available everywhere all the time.

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2023/08/16/russia-hits-ukrainian-grain-depots-again/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d Crimes against humanity are widespread or systemic criminal acts which are committed by or on behalf of a de facto authority, usually by or on behalf of a state, that grossly violate human rights.

No numbers, but an interesting look on how it's done overall from last year. Funny that an authoritative state like Russia might know more about US capabilities than we do of theirs's - just from open source. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-6worA8siA

Partly. But the desperation is more about Russia just collapsing and throwing in the towel. It could happen. It would of happened. It should of happened. Could of, would of, and should of, don't win conflicts. Putin is using the west's hate of combat losses and his ugly acceptance of the losses against Ukraine. From his POV it's rational; from ours it's evil. At some point there will nothing left of Ukraine to fight over with the country in tatters and population either dead, shell shocked or living elsewhere. This is Putin's and China's strategy - complacency of the west leaving Ukraine desolate, radiation free and readily occupied.

I agree with this line of discussion except we have to understand Russian might just go over the strategic defensive and cut their losses for a period of time. We can't assume they are not learning from this war and know less about their limitations than the west does. So almost immobile AFVs with conscripts could become valuable in a static warfare situation where they outnumber any attempt to cross a mined battleground. If US intel is funneling actionable information to Ukraine, it certainly has not resulted in significant advances this summer. There is a reason for that. Either US intel is bad, or Russia has enough to counter it. Static attritional warfare is something hard for the west to take. Putin and China could care less. That's the west's weakness and why this thing has to end soon with Ukraine in NATO, having defensible borders and a thriving economy. They will never get their stollen children and lives back. The biggest thing is NATO entry. Preventing this was Russia's purpose of the war in the first place. That would be a strategic win for the west. Russian will be back, but in an inferior position compared to last year. Ukraine will be a military state full with all the downsides that brings. But they have no choice. Living in a geopolitical borderland stinks.

I guess we will find out. But I would rather plan against the something in between. Could the US even move 40 M1s a month into Ukraine from storage? Don't forget the sad state of the maritime logistics the US has fallen into. I will look into that and report back.

I agree. But NATO is going to have to go farther almost to the brink of the unthinkable to get Putin to blink. Again, play into NATO's definitive strengths in naval and air. No fly zones and Black Sea escorts. It's become pretty obvious ground warfare alone will not free Ukraine. Why should we have ever assumed it would?

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/world-largest-tank-factory-overdrive-russian-losses-ukraine-2550750 But Russia has other means at its disposal. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a US military think-tank, estimated that Moscow has 5,000 older tanks in storage that can be refurbished to make them battle-ready. “This may enable them to resurrect around 90 older battle tanks per month,” the group estimated – giving a figure that would bring Russia close to matching reported losses. Ukrainian estimates for production of refurbished tanks is significantly lower at around 200 a year. This type of analysis does not take into account the talent needed to operate the armor. If we assume the numbers are correct, Ukraine's tank leaders are going have to be very good. But even then, does that support offensive operations?

Breadcrumbs?: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-nato-official-suggests-surrendering-land-to-russia-for-membership After Jenssen's comments, a NATO official reassured Ukraine that there has been no change in policy. "We fully support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as NATO leaders reaffirmed at the Vilnius Summit in July,” the unnamed official told Ukrainian Pravda. “We will continue to support Ukraine as long as necessary, and we are committed to achieving a just and lasting peace." Beyond being a non-starter in Kyiv, the question of a land-for-membership swap is highly unlikely. During its July summit in Vilnius, NATO basically pushed the concept of Ukrainian membership until after this war is over on Ukrainian terms. Those terms might just have to come to grips with the overall situation. That's neither hawkish nor defeatist. Ukraine is trying to egg NATO into a more active role. If intel suggests Russia is at the edge of the cliff NATO, should apply enough increasing pressure to have them fall off the cliff. If not, adopt the Israel/South Korea model and compete on economic lines. Create a situation were kinetics stop long enough to allow Ukraine NATO membership. Russian will keep attacking even if limited in scope. But NATO just has to get over that and stop using Ukraine as a proxy. I am starting to think NATO is so afraid of the bogey man they are would not help any single NATO nation if attacked e.g. Poland. Jeez, get off the bench and end the suffering.

Let's systematically step by step start staring Putin down: https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-nato-war-risk-black-sea/ I can't think of a better domain to start with: the sea. The Montreux Convention should be temporally disregarded until Russia leaves all of Ukraine. When Turkey is at war, or feels threatened by a war, it may take any decision about the passage of warships as it sees fit. The USA is not a signatory to the Convention. The west has to stop playing to Russia's only strength, ground combat, and attack through their well know weaknesses. In response to the Russian withdrawal from the grain deal, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg accused Russia of "dangerous and escalatory actions in the Black Sea," partly also in reference to Russia's bombardment of Ukrainian ports. NATO added it was "stepping up surveillance and reconnaissance in the Black Sea region, including with maritime patrol aircraft and drones." Not a strong enough response. Same old same old.

Got it. But be careful along the way since you should never rely on one type of weapon that could, for example, be jammed or defeated by methods to be developed.

I don't think proxies will received the best US technology and will just have rely on stuff the country is willing to have fall into enemy hands. We can't even get old F-16s into Ukraine. It's difficult because the US today would not stomach the losses we are seeing in Ukraine. So it might have to be a lighting war fought by US personnel with better tech against older tech given full authority to win and win fast. Or last least get to a negotiated solution that is in US interests.

Which maps and what size QB? The AI does not have a mind of it's own so it can really only follow what is designed into the map.

I do understand your point but are you thinking the assault gun (and just about everything else) will be replaced by flying munitions? It's too soon to tell if drones can be defeated and made irrelevant. Fire arms have been used since the early 16th century. Note the post above by re: EW and autonomous guidance. Even that has issues related to command and control, friendly fire etc.. But it's all fascinating. The US has to be prepared. In the end however, the US rather fight a war where its expensive stuff can safely defeat inexpensive stuff a third world nation and get sort of off the self. They would not want to deal with IEDs (or the flying equivalent) ever again.

We have all been there and this is an very efficient way to keep up on the war in detail. This thread is usually 12-24 hours ahead of the mainstream news and even ISW.

One thing to consider: the US is putting money into systems that will prevent their troops from being part of continental scale carnage in the first place. Don't forget the kits the US can place on old dumb bombs are cost effective too. The US is readying the force for a war parents are willing to send their kids into. If the US is using UAVs to drop mortar rounds as part of trench warfare they have already lost. However, in the hands of bad actors and emerging nations, tactical UAVs are frightening as terrorist weapons due to their low cost and ease of use. I think they might have a role with special ops. But not as part of a field unit deployed for linear fighting. This might be the one case where throwing money at the problem is actually the right strategy for the one county that can print money at will.

Let me clear this up. My thought was the old spy movies where the spy uses their looks to disarm and kill the enemy. Hey, US air crews had famous paintings on B-17s. Good for moral. Probably the same as the video in question.

Good question. It might already be a stalemate. But no, the UA will needs NATO help for the foreseeable future. They can't replace the munitions at the burn this war requires.

What do you mean?

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-stryker-seen-in-frontline-video-for-the-first-time That we are finally seeing Stryker being used near Robotyne could be an indication that Ukraine is trying to seize on an opportunity to punch through Russian defenses that have been breached. In the proper hands Stryker's are a new element on the battlefield. So I will back track from my post commenting that the UA has nothing "new" to project. Put these on good roads they could produce havoc on the RA communication nodes. Not sure there are enough in place to use on multiple directions. Keep an eye on these bad boys.

China et. al. licking it's chops at this yield curve. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1116880/russia-annual-yield-of-government-bonds-by-maturity/#:~:text=The federal bonds are the most stable securities,maturity bonds had a yield of 11.79 percent.

https://www.aol.com/ukraine-war-live-putin-forces-135227602.html The Ukrainian government is set to build new fortifications and military infrastructure in northeast regions that border Russia and Belarus at a cost of nearly $35 million (£30 million), prime minister Denys Shmyhal has said. Putin and Kim Jong Un exchange letters pledging to develop ties Poland staged a massive military parade on Tuesday to showcase its state-of-the-art weapons and defence systems, as war rages in neighboring Ukraine. With an eye on the October elections in Poland, president Andrzej Duda, the chief commander of the armed forces, said in his opening speech that the protection of Poland’s eastern border is a key element of state policy. Latvia has recalled border guards from holidays on Tuesday to strengthen the patrol of its border with Belarus. Western pressure on Ukraine’s counteroffensive to achieve a “Hollywood”-style breakthrough against Russia’s forces is “unrealistic” and Kyiv’s allies must be prepared for the war to “drag on far longer” than they imagined, experts have said. Facing heavily fortified Russian defences, including vast minefields and heavy shelling during its summer counteroffensive, Ukraine has been forced to broaden its focus away from the front lines With rains expected to muddy the battlefield in areas of the south and east of the country – including Zaporizhzhia – as soon as September, the “odds are getting longer” on the “triumphant breakthrough” many in the West were hoping for, analysts have told The Independent. No mention of who those analysts are but maybe it's time for a road trip.

Two handsome young people. Go get em. God Bless. But don't drop your nail files.

That's the problem. No one thinks that the UA has enough combat power or expertise to exploit engineering gains with a coordinated attack to roll up the RA on significant portions of the entrenched line. The more the UA attacks the more predictable their tactics become because they don't have the means to throw something new on to the battlefield. The entire free world is just waiting for the RA to crack. That's not a plan. The RA might be getting better and better at the defensive nature of this war each day. Oh, they are attacking in some sectors. Might be stupid. Might be a more of plan than the west has.