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kevinkin

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Everything posted by kevinkin

  1. Please explain what you mean with a coherent thought or two or maybe three. Sucks, you will not because you can't.
  2. Great point. And I like the reference to maneuver warfare that few understand. Keeping the printing presses going in the name of liberty is vital for Ukraine. That requires marketing the voting public and is key to the war effort. POTUS has to wake up and get out of bed and make the case to US tax payers that there is a strategy with an end game positive to the US and our allies while keeping Ukraine whole. Otherwise, it's another embarrassing defeat for the US. In other words, the case has to made that the US can win the war with debased currency and prevent a draw. A draw would be humiliating to me and so many others who follow the conflict given the losses suffered by Ukraine. On this holiday weekend in the US we should raise our glass to Ukraine fighting a nuclear power with two arms tied behind their backs.
  3. Yes, the writer and his parent Chicago Tribune come from right field but read this with open eyes: https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/2023/08/29/is-the-biden-administrations-ukraine-policy-sustainable/ To date, the Biden administration has managed to accomplish two objectives: Assist Ukraine as it resists Russia’s aggression. Ensure NATO isn’t dragged into the conflict, preventing escalation with a nuclear-armed Russia. It’s a fine balancing act that could quickly unravel depending on how the war evolves. Straddle back the aid, and Russia’s prospects on the ground improve; outsource U.S. policy to Ukraine’s maximalist objectives, particularly in Crimea, and run the risk of a desperate Putin making even more desperate, dangerous decisions. Biden, therefore, will have to be prepared for a scenario in which Russia’s defensive lines are simply too strong to break through. This is more likely than the full Russian troop withdrawal the Ukrainian government has been aiming for over the last year and a half. The U.S. should adjust its policy accordingly, now, by dropping its support for maximalist Ukrainian war aims and pivot toward support for armed neutrality: consistent U.S. defensive support for the Ukrainian Army so it can keep the territory it presently holds and ensure Kyiv’s deterrent against Russian aggression is intact over the long haul. Such a pivot will require compromises, but it’s the best way of bolstering Ukraine’s defensive needs in the least costly way possible. Meanwhile, Europe, which has more of a security imperative in boosting Ukraine’s victory or at least preventing its defeat, should use the time to exhibit primary leadership over this issue. Tough but necessary choices are around the corner. So piss or get off the pot. I would include the once mighty USA in that recommendation too.
  4. A humanist beacon speaks: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/win-long-war-strategy-counteroffensive Note: there is no mention of the human toll. However I think is a good status report from their view of the situation e.g. It is difficult to objectively measure Ukraine’s progress because only a few of the most senior Ukrainian military and civilian leaders know the actual strategic and operational objectives for the country’s offensives. But for outsiders viewing the war, the country’s progress might be measured in ground taken, Russian forces destroyed, progress toward placing Russian forces in Crimea at peril, and the extent to which Ukraine has persuaded Western governments it is succeeding. After two months, it might be stated that each of these goals is “in progress.” Imagine if the US admin were different if the passage below would ever see the light of day in this humanist beacon of hope: Offering Kyiv enduring support may not be welcome news to many Western politicians, given the upcoming elections in the United States and some European countries. But over the past 18 months, the Ukrainians have demonstrated a will to fight, the capacity to absorb new weapons, and the ability to learn, adapt, and improve their military effectiveness. The next way to help the Ukrainians continue their evolution in quality and endurance is making sure they know the West is prepared to support them in their fight to defeat Russia and to offer this support in 2024 and beyond.
  5. Operation Cobra was preceded by around 600 Allied fighter-bombers attacking strongpoints and enemy artillery along a 270 m (300 yd)-wide strip of ground located in the St. Lô area. For the next hour, 1,800 heavy bombers of the U.S. Eighth Air Force saturated a 6,000 yd × 2,200 yd (3.4 mi × 1.3 mi; 5.5 km × 2.0 km) area on the Saint-Lô–Periers road, succeeded by a third and final wave of medium bombers. Approximately 3,000 U.S. aircraft had carpet-bombed a narrow section of the front, with the Panzer-Lehr-Division taking the brunt of the attack. With a concentrated aerial bombardment using state of the art technology the UA would be in exploitation phase now. NATO supplied mech units gunning down those Russians that don't surrender. The numbers that do surrender would actually be the only impediment. Unfortunately, the UA does not have those cards to play. But the US does. The +/- of such an approach has been discussed to death already. It's like watching a loved one die because the cure is being withheld for the greater good.
  6. I have been wondering why ISW has the daily: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT. Not that the information they provide is not valued. More about the wording of the headline. We know Russia is offensive. But isn't the UA on the offensive compared a year ago? I don't loose slept over it. But an oddity of language. Anyway, there seems to be a movement within the armchair generals in DC that the west has to start preparing Plan B. That is, a long war. I believe this was always the intent of the proxy war once the UA held. And Plan B is in progress. Systems destined will be deployed years from now. This is a nightmare. More on strategy rather than tactics later.
  7. The fight over the meaning of raw data in this war is a contribution Steve, least we forget critical thinking skills are part of the debate over policy. Sorry if I offended you or anyone. But when I read my posts from 2 weeks ago, they were really really harmless. Let's all take a deep breath and exhale. Steve, send me a PM to discuss. I look forward to it to understand where you are coming from.
  8. I did not attack you. Why so defensive? You are a tactical thinker, I think strategically. That's why you love videos of bodies being blow up and I don't.
  9. The thread has turned authoritative. So unless we agree with the almighty we are asked to shut up. Nice.
  10. You are crazy. Look at the country where tens of thousands Ukrainians will never return to. That's Putin's strategy. This is the thinking of a shallow wargame developer who never put themselves in harms way.
  11. That is why linear mine fields are poor. They are against economy of force and combat where you draw the attacker into kill zones. Fire sacs. You would use linear fields only if setting up a border to be defended sort of like the Berlin War or a DMZ defined by negotiation. A hedgehog defense is not one of desperation - more of "rope a dope" when in capable hands it can turn the table on the attacker. But again, the RA is just full of dopes.
  12. And the US lead NATO is prepared to give Ukraine just enough rope to hang themselves. Does anyone think Ukraine will meet it's lofty symbolic land objectives in an armchair general's war during the US political season? POTUS has to make the case otherwise. But that is not happening. Maybe POTUS should just say we are prepared to turn Russian into "North Korea" and Ukraine into "South Korea" for as long as it takes. We will not fire until fired upon. Regime change in Russia is not a strategy when their population are zombies. Any other solution requires WW3. Something the US public can't fight without some form of cognitive leadership. Patience plays into the RA hands given the current correlation of firepower. The CIA might know better. But I would not put my money on their assessment. At this point, Ukraine is as likely to fall into the authoritarian sphere than the free sphere. The cultural differences are not so severe - Hatfield vs Mccoy. A civil war with corruption, interpersonal networks the West can't comprehend or disrupt to its advantage. America needs to tell Ukraine we are all in or who guys need to dig in (and reproduce).
  13. And the US led NATO is prepared to give Ukraine just enough rope to hang themselves. Does anyone think Ukraine will meet it's lofty symbolic land objectives in an armchair generals war during the US political season? POTUS has to make the case otherwise. But that not happening. Maybe POTUS should just say we are prepared to turn Russian into "North Korea" and Ukraine into "South Korea" for as long as it takes. We will not fire until fired upon. Regime change in Russia is not a strategy when their population are zombies. Any other solution requires WW3. Something the US public can't fight without some form of cognitive leadership. Patience plays into the RA hands given the current correlation of firepower. The CIA might know better. But I would not put my money of their assessment.
  14. Mine fields can be use in area denial to funnel the attacker into kill zones. There is not a need for continuous line. In fact, that is predictable and loses the element of surprise. Of course the RA are idiots and that is beyond there comprehension. But they must have read this open source document but still employ continuous minefields and disregard the learning. That's actually good for the UA. RA Dopes. I guess. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/5-102/Ch5.htm Maybe outdated, maybe not. Defending an obvious key piece of terrain is, well, obvious. And some operational thinking would use that terrain as a ruse and not commit to defending it at all cost. Especially given the overall nature and size of the terrain being fought over. Don't forget the RA is fighting on Ukrainian territory already turned in a moonscape. There is the idea that the RA is actually learning faster than the west and the UA in relative terms starting in Feb. 2022. Especially when they are fighting a defensive war currently with more trigger power and not yet 100% mobilized. Just being contrary to foster discussion. Just being contrary does not mean I support the RA. It means I want the result as to to be in Ukraine's favor. No staff in any part of any organization should be filled exclusively with yes men.
  15. Another pin prick or a measured way to strike symbolic targets?: https://news.yahoo.com/what-is-happening-with-ukraine-war-as-moscow-hit-by-powerful-explosion-141029407.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall I side with a measured strike/testing for larger ones maybe soon.
  16. I just see it as data from the NYT. They have been supportive. This could cut both ways: give Ukraine more assistance now or be prepared to do so at a future time. Putin is not ready to back down. And given the nature of the combat numbers matter at least to some degree. That's why they are an important discussion point even if we don't know the complete picture. Pretty sure the US has intel attached to the UA and knows a lot more than what we get from open sources.
  17. Some numbers out today (NYT reposted): https://dnyuz.com/2023/08/18/troop-deaths-and-injuries-in-ukraine-war-near-500000-u-s-officials-say/ Probably better than a wild guess, but who knows. The numbers also point to a lack of rapid medical care on the frontline. Wounded soldiers are increasingly hard to evacuate given how much artillery and gunfire bookend each engagement. Unlike the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, where American forces strictly adhered to evacuating casualties within an hour to a well-stocked medical facility, there is no such capability in Ukraine. Instead, injured troops are often thrown into any vehicle available or leave the front on foot. In some cases, the wounded and dead are left on the battlefield, because medics are unable to reach them. Hospitals and aid stations are often overwhelmed. And across Ukraine, in big cities and rural villages, almost everyone knows a family that has lost someone in the fighting. Dry flowers from funerals litter quiet roads, and graveyards are filling up in every corner of the country. While Mr. Putin appears somewhat reluctant to initiate a widespread mobilization, he has raised the upper age limit for men eligible to be conscripted into the army. And should Russia decide to mobilize more people, its larger population could quickly overwhelm Ukrainian reserves of manpower. Can't tell how much of the above quote is opinion or fact. Perhaps somewhere in between.
  18. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/U.S.-approves-sending-F-16s-to-Ukraine-from-Denmark-Netherlands Interesting to find where they will be based and supported and what weapons they will be allowed to use. War Zone: The Danes currently have around 43 F-16AM/BMs in service, batches of which could head to Ukraine as they are retired in the next two years. The training is expected to physically take place in Denmark and Romania. Despite previous hopes that the first group of Ukrainian pilots would start to train on the F-16 as early as this month, this is now not expected to happen until January 2024, according to a report last week from The Washington Post. This, in turn, would mean that those aviators would not graduate from the training course until sometime next summer. Future classes of F-16 trainees would likely be pushed back, as well. Though the U.S. government's position does seem to have significantly changed in recent months, U.S. authorities, including President Joe Biden, have argued repeatedly in the past that getting F-16s should not be a priority for Ukraine's armed forces. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-intelligence-says-ukraine-will-fail-to-meet-offensive-s-key-goal/ar-AA1fpY4L The path to Melitopol is an extremely challenging one, and even recapturing closer cities such as Tokmak will be difficult, said Rob Lee, a military analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute. “Russia has three main defensive lines there and then fortified cities after that,” he said. “It’s not just a question about whether Ukraine can breach one or two of them, but can they breach all three and have enough forces available after taking attrition to achieve something more significant like taking Tokmak or something beyond that.” Well on a positive note, they have been wrong before. The grim assessment is based on Russia’s brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals. But finger pointing is certain.
  19. Over at ISW we have some must read key take aways: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2023 For example: “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintroducing a narrative that had been largely dormant since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion. Khodakovsky stated that Russia will not be able to topple Ukraine militarily in the near term and that Russian forces are unlikely to easily occupy additional Ukrainian cities, echoing comments Prigozhin had made in April 2023.[1] Khodakovsky concluded that Russia will likely have to come to a “truce” and that Russia may enter a phase “of neither peace nor war” with Ukraine.[2] Khodakovsky suggested that Ukraine would be sufficiently weakened in this state of frozen conflict and that Russia would be able to exert more influence over Ukraine in such a situation than it currently can during the ”Special Military Operation.”[3] Hard to argue with that strategy. What a nightmare for the Ukrainian people. How can they rebuild under such a scenario? Build a school - Iranian drone destroys the school. Build a housing complex - Iranian drone destroys the complex. Have a baby - Iranian drone destroys the maternity ward. Regardless of where the lines fall, Ukraine will not be whole until it's under NATO's umbrella and anything thrown at them is shot out of the skies.
  20. It's not as controlled as you suggest because the enemy has a say in the matter in the way they adapt. That can't be controlled and held constant.
  21. Well their goes trillions in US tax dollars. What a waste of money. LOL. But seriously, NATO could take down Russian SAM systems in little more than a week and gain air supremacy over Ukraine. Remember the golden rule of this thread - Russians are idiots.
  22. That would apply to both sides. The question is which side is learning faster on things that apply to the terrain they are fighting for. And the replacement rate of the poor souls being directed by those staffs. We just don't know. PS: note my signature statement below. Does NATO really understand this war?
  23. If the writer was referring to Erwin Schrödinger and the cat thought experiment the reference might have been missed by some. Thanks for the link. The writer is definitely a hawk. This is an interesting point: Calling off their offensive is why the Wagner Group and the Chechen forces, the Waffen-SS attack-dogs of Moscow’s armies, have been withdrawn. Well equipped and encouraged to use rape, torture and looting as their tools of terror, these beserkers are only of value in spearheading attacks. They have no value in a defensive war, fighting to hold territory and operating alongside Russian troops who loathe them. With it has evaporated the need for Wagner in Ukraine. Instead, Wagner’s killers and criminals lurk in Belarus. This makes perfect sense, given Putin’s ultimate aim of reabsorbing Belarus back into the Russian Empire.
  24. I always have to remind it's the concentration of firepower not manpower. It's too dangerous to concentrate manpower like in past conflicts. The tactics are very tricky. But once mastered, they can make a big difference and differentiate the UA from the RA. And keep the good guys alive. Even back in the Cold War: Commanders mass fires on the battlefield by rapidly positioning weapon systems for concentrated fires on lucrative enemy targets. Humans have to be involved, but the key its to keep your guys a lot safer than the enemies. Concentrate manpower only when you sense fait accompli and need to occupy new ground. Then spread out again.
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