kevinkin

I am always behind times on some topics, but these guys must have some utility on the battlefield. https://www.lowes.com/pd/Jackery-Jackery-Solar-Generator-290W-Portable-Power-Station-and-Solar-Saga-100W/5005381755?user=shopping&srsltid=AfmBOop31piP9y57jkDDqJfnYoFBAUTLcs0OrjInxZgpDjUCBl8QwtKDNhg I have a entire house natural gas generator and thinking of buying a few anyway.

It's so screwy why this would be made public other than to express some sort of "normalcy" to the Russian public. https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-14-23/h_6e9c6204aeda83513688a65092d76368 What do you call a population that knows full well what's going on and can't act? Impotent.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ruble-sanctions-war-ukraine-cf5448603b78f1bb884f3c68df5c7cd5 On Monday, some Russians in Moscow appeared concerned about the weakening currency. “Prices will rise, which means that the standard of living will fall. It has already fallen, and it will fall even more — there are definitely more poor people,” said Vladimir Bessosedny, 63, a retired teacher.

Developments like this play into the west's strength: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russians-board-ukraine-bound-ship The problem is Russia is a fly and knows how be just annoying enough. But NATO can't bring themselves to kill the fly and the maggots they continue to reproduce. Maneuver warfare would suggest to take this war out the mud and fox holes and funnel it toward western domination in naval and air assets. The Black Sea should be NATO lake given the deaths of Ukrainians at this point.

Yep, get and stay into a state university and don't flunk out. Then join the national guard if you needed a job after 4 years and a masters or PhD were out of question. However, a lot of strings were pulled along the way especially related to grades and not flunking out. When one psych 101 teacher was in the way, a lot of stuff happens.

One of the reason's for Putin's attack is the Russian thought Ukraine was falling into the western sphere culturally. Note the recent change of the Xmas date to 12/25. So absent the attempted and failed preemptive military strike on Kiev, now this a punitive war on Ukraine since Russian can't move forward against the West. "If I can't have Ukraine I will destroy it." Meanwhile hardening internal support around the Kremlin. The playbook is old, but for some reason it confuses the west which results with hesitation.

This might be a "rope a dope tactic" where the UA does not want to completely destroy the bridge beyond hope of repair thus keeping the bridge in the news and diverting Russian resources in the hope of repairing it. One hit every 10 days would do it. That's maneuver warfare thinking. Attack weakness; not strength. In this case keep the disabled symbolic bridge in the news hanging on for dear life knowing if the time comes you can collapse it.

I think the point is that under the EU there is no reason for Germany to attack France at. al. Other than embedded cultural differences there is little difference between European nations, especially under the NATO and EU economic umbrella, to go to kinetic war over.

That's analogous to the missionary reasoning in spreading ideas and in that case religion. Religion without borders. Analogous to spreading democracy and freedom in a secular way to those that live in tyranny. Except some missionaries love the idea on a one world world government. I don't ascribe to that and will stop. But say some on the political side would love one world world government. Done.

Flying UAV grenades are very effective in static warfare. The way to make those irrelevant is in a crushing war of movement across all domains. The west has proven to ill prepared to meet their rhetoric and commit it's own blood to break the stalemate or risk the unspeakable. Therefore flying grenades are here for a while and weapons innovation will come from the grunts on the ground not DRAPA. Most of the forward thinking envisions static warfare in urban environment - not on terrain considered perfect for mechanized warfare. I never bought into that concept since unban centers are already cordoned off for their access to sustenance. And it's the borderland that is the battleground. Just like a traditional grenade, UAVs need to get into position to be used. DRAPA could lend a hand in disrupting flying grenades prior to use. But it just more complete to overrun the operators wherever they signal from.

Yet: The I.S.W. said of that fight: “The Ukrainian forces’ ability to advance to the outskirts of Robotyne — which Russian forces have dedicated significant effort, time and resources to defend — remains significant even if Ukrainian gains are limited at this time.”

Some good news from the the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war.html Ukrainian forces have progressed about 10 to 12 miles along both lines from their starting places at the onset of the counteroffensive in early June. Kyiv’s goal is to reach the Sea of Azov and drive a wedge into the so-called land bridge between Russia and Crimea, which is vital to the Russian military’s supply routes to the west.

Same as Seals. Why would Seals operate in mountainous terrain? It comes down to marketing and drawing young people toward a specific service regardless of the name of the service in some instances. In a country the size of the US, we will find those that just want the challenge to be a Seal, a marine, a fighter pilot, a tank leader. It almost makes you think why do all these services exist in the first place given there is so much overlap? Tradition I suppose. Each service is its own kingdom. I like it that way as long as they fight as a well oiled team.

I thought the same. Maybe like a wireless detonated IED. Or denoted based on something other than ground pressure. Maybe a UAV could do so by patrolling between strong points.

Some neighbors: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20445 Wagner effect?: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20451 Serhii Nayev, the commander of the Joint Forces said: “Over 15 new strongholds have been established, tens of thousands of mines have been laid, with at least 20 percent being guided anti-personnel mines.” Nayev cautioned that while there is no immediate threat, future risks remain possible. He elaborated, “The enemy would require at least one and a half months to amass the necessary forces to initiate offensive operations in this area.”

https://jamestown.org/program/ukraines-slow-moving-counteroffensive-problems-and-solutions-part-one/ I think the writer is a Ukrainian military analyst. Looks like some recommended solutions are on the way in part two. For now the writer thinks training has been deficient. More equipment with standardization is also recommended. In response, the West began to supply Ukraine with non-standardized military equipment, not only from different military schools but also from different eras, thus overloading the Ukrainian military logistics and administrative system. Moreover, it is futile to talk about the multiple increases in military capabilities for Ukraine based on the increased supply of Western aid, as, overall, this equipment was provided in small quantities and has thus been “diluted” along the front. Some analysis of numbers: https://unherd.com/2023/08/why-ukraines-offensive-has-stalled/ There is, then, only one route forward: to fight the war in earnest, as befits a struggle of national liberation. Ukraine’s population has declined but still exceeds 30 million, so that the total number in uniform could be as much as 3 million (Israel’s 10% ratio in 1948) or at least 2 million (Finland’s reservists as a percentage of the population). With those troops, Ukraine could win its battles and liberate its territory in the same way as most of Europe’s wars of independence — by grueling, attritional warfare. Yuck. But once again the transparent battlefield has changed everything. Watching the Ukrainians advance in real time, the Russians could send their forces to intercept them in equal if not greater numbers. And even if the numbers were equal, the combat would be unequal because the Russians would be shielded by their minefields and by their trenches. Minefields and trenches yes. Not so sure about RA ISR and ability to react. I guess the point might must be the two are capable enough. You can't always get what you want. But if you try sometime you find. You get what you need. A lot of hindsight and rationalization going on. Some helpful and healthy; some a nothing burger.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-war-has-found-machinery-western-governments-wanting Article forwards the idea that inaction early in 2022 meant that Ukraine could not deliver a killing blow when the RA was in disarray over the winter. Ok, Monday morning quarter backing for sure. It does not take into account the state of the UA and it's ability to use the assistance donated if it arrived as the author wished. However: Culturally, Western governments have spent decades writing long-term strategies and managing small-scale, short-term crises like terrorist attacks. It appears the institutional memory of how to cohere the operational level of war has atrophied. This malady is correctable, but only if we can acknowledge that there is a problem to be addressed. So, the US and NATO were caught flat footed? The shift of US emphasis to the Pacific left Ukraine high and dry? And the response was/is the same old same old while Ukraine is in ruin?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/10/ukraine-national-mood-counteroffensive-gloom/ Slow counteroffensive darkens mood in Ukraine Throughout, Ukrainian officials and their western partners hyped up a coming counteroffensive — one that, buoyed by a flood of new weapons and training, they hoped would turn the tide of the war. But two months after Ukraine went on the attack, with little visible progress on the front and a relentless, bloody summer across the country, the narrative of unity and endless perseverance has begun to fray. While the story makes you angry want to cry, I have to hand it to the higher ups at the Post for publishing it. War on this scale is not clinical. I am interested in who pick's up on this piece across media outlets. Maybe it will drag the DC elites off the beach to answer tough questions with something other than boiler plate answers.

Not there today, so this will require innovation for sure.

Hughes salvo model. Actually come into play now with strategic drone strike from the air. The old captain probably never considered unmanned stuff.

The first thing to consider is getting a system through the air defense the ship has in place organically. The fast the better I think. However, tiny might work especially with jamming. The naval does have this as a major weapon to use: The AGM-158C LRASM (Long Range Anti-Ship Missile) is a stealth air launch anti-ship cruise missile developed for the United States Air Force and United States Navy by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).[5] The LRASM was intended to pioneer more sophisticated autonomous targeting capabilities than the U.S. Navy's current Harpoon anti-ship missile, which has been in service since 1977. Warhead: WDU-42/B HE blast fragmentation penetrator Warhead weight: 1,000 lb (453.6 kg) But for one alone to get passed the air defense would be lucky without a coordinated attack. Loitering might be too slow. But on the topic of unmanned, long range surface drones would be a real PIA since they are hard to detect. The US Navy has a close eye on those from the war I bet.

Some bigger picture items in this report: https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-russia-war-live-explosion-042305134.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall For example: Putin ‘considers coming face to face with world leaders’ at G20 summit New Wagner ‘tent city’ being built 15 miles from Belarus-Ukraine border, Kyiv group claims Fear of tech ‘brain drain’ prevents Russia from seizing Yandex for now - sources Ukraine's navy announces Black Sea humanitarian corridor but says Russian threat remains

I think the link was from an official Ukrainian site. Do agree that links require an interpretation if only to foster discussion. But I also think the reader needs to take a look at the report cited to better comment of the interpretation. I don't think anyone is posting nefarious links and actually go out of their way to exclude them. As a result of a multi-stage special operation, the SSU Counterintelligence dismantled an enemy intelligence network in Donetsk oblast. The group consisted exclusively of local women who supported russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine. The agents worked simultaneously for the FSB and the private military company ‘Wagner’. On the occupiers’ instructions, their accomplices collected intelligence on numbers and deployment of Ukrainian military equipment in the region. Primarily, the women tried to identify and pass to the aggressor directions of flights of the AFU’s combat aircraft, including attack helicopters near Avdiivka. They were also interested in routes of movement of Ukrainian heavy armoured vehicles to the frontline. To gather intelligence, the spies walked in the area and covertly took photographs of Ukrainian facilities and targets. The collected data were transmitted through two channels - to a handler in the FSB and a ‘Wagner’ mercenary. Secure, closed chats in a popular messenger app were used for communication. The SSU detained three members of the enemy network when they were conducting reconnaissance. In addition, the SSU identified a resident (senior member) of the group who, at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, moved to russia to coordinate her ‘team’ from there. According to the investigation, all four russian assets are residents of Pokrovsk district. Before 24 February 2022, they had been recruited by the occupiers and until recently were on standby. During the searches at the women’s homes, the SSU found mobile phones used by the suspects in reconnaissance and sabotage activities against Ukraine.

This whole thing is curious too: https://ssu.gov.ua/en/novyny/sbu-vykryla-na-donechchyni-zhinochu-ahenturnu-merezhu-yaka-pratsiuvala-na-fsb-ta-vahnerivtsiv Not a good story even if it's just a sad part of war. It is usually a good idea to get out ahead of emerging issues even if they are small in the scheme of things. So let's chalk this and Kupyansk up to that. If all this is simple western style transparency, kuddos. US Marine back away from tanks and what do you know they went with: https://news.usni.org/2023/08/08/first-marine-corps-mq-9a-reaper-squadron-now-operational “It will serve as the airborne quarterback for littoral maneuver elements from the 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment,” Heiken said. Years ago I thought UAVs were all about not putting humans in harms way. But it's more than that now. On the UAV is sensors sensors sensors with some firepower if needed on a plug and play modular platform. Human controllers can be almost anywhere. The fight is over the elinks between.

I suppose the UA does not want to even think about their own shells falling on their own people which would limit their flexibility to respond. Prudent.