kevinkin

Article by David Lapp-Jost (M.Ed.) is a Friedensarbeiter (Peace Worker) with the German Mennonite Peace Committee, which since World War II has worked for peace in Europe. It is a sober view for sure. But he does not offer any short term solutions. Just published to summarize and appreciate the massive toll on Ukraine and cries for US leadership. https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/09/09/victory_at_what_price_in_ukraine_978456.html After World War II, the U.S. helped end a pattern of generationally recurring violence in Western Europe, not only with the Marshall Plan but also with new institutions of exchange and friendship that continue today, with hundreds of thousands of exchange students going both ways and deep civil society engagement. It was a significant error to not cultivate that same level of friendship in Eastern Europe after 1990. Now there will be a new chance in Ukraine. It was also a catastrophic mistake to build the European economy on Russian energy exports, which funded half of the Russian state budget and military. Well I do have personal knowledge of exchange students and young summer workers from eastern Europe after 1990. But it has seemed have slowed down over the last 10 or so years.

https://www.wsj.com/world/putin-wants-his-hit-man-back-5bd759f8 Interesting story for the Sunday WSJ Moscow seeks the return of a covert operative serving a life sentence in Germany, possibly in exchange for Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and others held by Russia Shortly after his sentencing, authorities moved Krasikov from Berlin to an undisclosed high-security facility in Bavaria. There were fears that Chechen inmates in Krasikov’s former prison would try to kill him. In his compound by the Danube River, Krasikov has the comforts afforded prisoners under German law, including daily walks in the garden and books in his own language. He has been reading Soviet-era novels glorifying the exploits of a Kremlin secret agent. In the scheme of things, a sub plot. But we would all like Evan released.

I was just puzzled why he mentioned exact numbers. Maybe irresponsible.

https://wavellroom.com/2023/09/07/ai-on-the-battlefield-lessons-from-ukraine/ Short interesting summary on what can be learned from the war.

That seems a bit short to me. Maybe there is a non-military reason for bringing it up: https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/ukraine Perhaps some form of excuse to slow down operations? Not that the UA has to listen to Milley.

This aligns well with the west titrating support to Ukraine to avoid escalation and not really wanting to defeat Russia. Only time will tell if that view is correct. But at least voters should know what the end result would look like while not giving away state secrets. US leadership can't put two sentences together. John Kirby might be the only grown up in DC now. He is professional and making a name for himself.

Let also remember that the UN is impotent, irrelevant and a dinosaur from the Cold War.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/xi-jinping-is-done-with-the-established-world-order/ar-AA1gtcNM Perhaps an indication that we are in WW3. Or at least a proxy war with China. So we buy their stuff at Target and Walmart and they send there stuff to Russia to keep them afloat. What an avoidable mess. The effort to build a rival bloc comes at a time when Xi appears to be distancing himself from the West. He and his top cadres welcomed four senior U.S. officials to Beijing in less than three months; the latest was Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who dropped by in late August. But Beijing has not reciprocated by dispatching anyone to Washington during this period. The suggestion may well be that Xi is open to continued engagement with the United States only if the United States does the engaging. Now Xi won’t be at the G20 for even a handshake with President Joe Biden, let alone any more substantive discussion.

Does this not make combat more digestible to those in power because civilians will be at more risk than the soldiers they command and hold them is power? The world will start behaving like inner city Chicago. There is something about making war difficult and not easier that is rational. The way to make it difficult on potential enemies is too out pace them with innovation and smother their ability to steal your ideas. Cheap trucks with armed trailers are scary since the ability to deploy them is outside the any control. If I try to sue a contractor with good reason, they could blow my house away in anger. Anarchy. This has to be avoided.

The battlefield is so deadly today. It's going to take open minds and other more firepower to break it open.

Thanks for the heads up. Appreciate it. Here is a bit more on the writer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatol_Lieven Seems that maybe one slice of his life might side with Russia. However, the rest appears to be credible. But what do I know.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/opinions/2023/09/07/why-our-generals-dont-win.html A military professional must be a master of his trade. Ulysses Grant, John Pershing, Dwight Eisenhower and Chester Nimitz never served as joint officers before leading great armies and fleets to victory. Each spent years in the trenches learning his craft. We do not need more ticket punchers; we have railroad conductors for that. Woke will make the nation broke.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/afghanistan-war/ Instead of a Communist-led nationalist movement to reunify Vietnam, the Vietnamese Communists were portrayed as a force that could start toppling a row of “dominoes” that would end with Communist victory in France and Mexico. Instead of a tinpot regional dictator, Saddam Hussein became a nuclear menace to the U.S. homeland. The Taliban, an entirely Afghan force, supposedly had to be fought in Afghanistan so that we would not need to fight them in the United States.

Physical metrics are burned into the money spent within the DOD. What is lacking any original thinking from the US State Department organizing with the DOD to defeat Russia in this war. They are dumb. What if Iran gets a nuke? From Russia. That's maneuver warfare since it would be so disruptive. That's what is all about. If a rouge state get those we can't fight back for fear of escalation. F16s, tanks, drones, cruise missiles and trillions of dollars will not not matter unless we in the US have skin in the game.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/07/western-sanctions-russia-ukraine-war/ Again, it's hard to agree or disagree with this article because emotions are raw and the ground situation is primarily unknown. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/07/western-sanctions-russia-ukraine-war/ But it does success the US is lazy with war effort in support of Ukraine. Same old same old. Three patterns can be discerned across the entire parallel import supply chain—a term that the Kremlin’s official communication team uses to describe what are in effect decriminalized smuggling schemes used to bypass Western sanctions. First, using intermediaries that haven’t been put under sanctions; second, restructuring existing companies to conceal entities; and third, purchasing components and moving final assembly to Russia instead of buying finished sanctioned goods. On top of that, Russia disguises customs data, sets up illegal networks and one-day shell companies, and orchestrates fake transit operations. Sounds like something out of the Family playbook. Where is leadership in disrupting this enterprise?

How are they replacing the jobs being eliminated? I am not sure a concentration in income generation is heathy e.g. into IT. Or Ai. There are too many people in the world that need something to do other than reproduce. Just saw Steve's post above. I think we are on the same page.

That's a well thought out analogy. But I have to add, the US and societies in general have failed to predict what type of firepower systems will be needed in next critical war. There is a reason why Switzerland is such a calm and beautiful nation. They know what they need to exactly stay that way. Same thing, in a way, for Singapore - authoritative nation. The US is guarded by two huge oceans and the US Navy holds supreme. The Marines let go their tanks - great forward thinking. Why would not the US start a entire department related to UAVs or similar drone boats? The reason is the DOD is ossified. We all know the benefits of low cost systems, but try to explain that to bean counters at Boeing or in Georgetown. There is no desire to change American's way of war. Whatever the US learns from this war it will be at least 5 years behind.

I was not talking about the the Ukraine air force: https://www.barrons.com/news/russian-air-superiority-stopping-counteroffensive-zelensky-42a53972 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that Russian air superiority was "stopping" Kyiv's counteroffensive, complaining of the slow rate of both Western arms deliveries and sanctions on Russia. Ukrainian officials have expressed frustration at criticism that Ukraine's counteroffensive has been too slow. "If we are not in the sky and Russia is, they stop us from the sky. They stop our counteroffensive," Zelensky said, calling for more "powerful and long-range" weapons. There was not time to equip and train Ukraine for the air warfare needed. That's why a no-fly zone should not be have been out of question early or now; nor would it precipitate escalation. We would be defending the skies over a nation we have given billions to and have killed thousands of Russian anyway. If Russia wants to escalate - Where's The Beef? Figuring out Russian is impossible and trying to define their line in the sand as well. Free nations can't let this ambiguity in the way while watching a nation like Ukraine evaporate. BTW the S400 and 300 are not at all feared within the USAF. Sort of like a annoying bug on a summer night. Could they get lucky - sure. But never in a tactically meaningful way. This comes from a family member in USAF intel. This is because the operators are idiots and the mechanics are broken down. Ukrainians are dying because of our fear of escalation which why I brought up the subject of "speak softly; and carry a big stick" i.e. diplomacy and staring down the enemy. There are reasons we don't that are beyond the scope of this thread.

Not sure I would describe it that way, but your point overall is well taken. Like I said previously, the US does not want to fight a war where we have to break through fortified positions. They would be neutralized by airpower and no longer be fortifications. It might take weeks, but that's how it would go. Russia is a cancer that can be cured via firepower (chemotherapy) or surgery (maneuver warfare). Either way can solve the issue. But sometimes either of those approaches can kill the patient. It's a difficult call. I think the UA is best positioned to use economy of force and kill Russians. Sorry to say that might mean going over the strategic defensive while operationally looking offensive. They might have already decided that. This not a negative view. But maybe a winning view.

A society can have military victories, but those do not necessarily stop the eventual downfall of the society and result in a strategic long lasting victory. It's as simple as the old "cost - benefit ratio" or "live to fight another day". The US is just throwing money at the problem. I see no long tern strategy out of DC. We don't have any skin in the game. We do provide intel to the UA. That only goes so far. US systems must have killed and wounded over 10,000 Russians. Result: no escalation; more UA losses. We are treating this of like sort arming Afghanistan. However, that proxy war was one of power protection in the minds of Russia. Ukraine is a war of survival in their warped and molded mines. Holding fertile soil and access to the Mediterranean is far more important to them than access to the Persian Gulf ever was. America, with all our age old internal problems is being tested. And we are punting the ball again.

Myers told USA TODAY the Ukrainians use "pin pricks" and news about taking back land to demonstrate progress to the West − but are less transparent about the cost in Ukrainian lives. "They don’t talk about the counterstrikes by the Russians, who don’t care about gaining or holding ground in the kill zone and are experts at laying traps," he said. A very short read but I would not discount it because it does not fit the narrative: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/ukraine/2023/09/07/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/70783569007/ Basically, security and economic growth matter more than finite borders as long security and growth don't depend on finite borders. I think this might be the US strategy. But using attrition to get there is very painful. So we need to get off our high horse and think strategically and not that there is some artificial goal line to be crossed as if this were Monday night football.

Well few have 20/20 vision. There are nearsighted, farsighted, and the short sited. Let's leave it at that.

The RA was sort of on the run last year and that was the time to go for the jugular. I know I know escalation escalation. Imagine what an integrated air campaign could have done to them as they moved in the open into their current positions. But that cow has left the barn and is irrelevant now. However, if we can learn from the UA regarding squad tactics we can self reflect on our own mistakes. I would donate money for a UA memorial in Washington DC. Not happening, but you all know what I mean. Very few in my nation do.

Unfortunately they often get things after they become irrelevant. Additive manufacturing on the battlefield was something I brought up years ago and was sort of laughed at. Drones will never win a quick and decisive war against a near peer. You need to bring overwhelming firepower to bear to break the will of the enemy. Humans with fears and don't want to die. Drones of all types have a role. But we might be getting enamored with the newest and sexist thing. They are pin pricks in a war of this scale the can not win quickly with low human cost. I don't think the US will mothball our carriers. They have a role too. Otherwise, I want my money back. It's sort of amazing that Ukraine is relying on Star Link from the private sector outside bounds of formal elected public policy. Also, I would never recommend putting all my eggs in one basket. The the enemy will know and turn a perceived advantage into a vulnerability. Drones may save lives in the pursuit of foreign policy some day, but we are not there yet. They might be actually enabling the huge loss of life.

I remember a few years ago all the talk was was how the US Army would fight urban warfare with the advent of mega cities. Now the most important war in generations is being fought on open steppe. It's very difficult to predict what systems will win the the next war. Or the environment they will be used in. The classic example is carriers vs battleships. I think what the UA has reminded us is that you need to adapted to the situation and systems you are forced to fight with. This requires a superior way of thinking about war. For every new tactical weapon system, there has been counter that has always emerged. The US spent billions on the Ford, if low cost drones made that expenditure irreverent I want my money back.