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kevinkin

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Everything posted by kevinkin

  1. If I read it once or maybe a million times, China has a very long view on geopolitics. And they don't care much about their people within the context of that long view. “A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic." (- Guess who?) As long as the Party minimizes misery on its people so as they don't revolt, the Party will keep the long view intact. Even if they did, the masses would be mowed down. I am not a fan of the Chinese Communist Party. Does that mean in 2020 they were aiming to tank the West's economy. Who knows. It's too early to tell. But it's not unfair to start asking questions and debating the possibility. If this was a mistake on China's part or did not come out of their labs, they will fess up and allow for a full international investigation to prove it. Otherwise they it will look bad for the PRC. I am keeping an open mind. It's a axiom in situations like this that you analyze intentions and capabilities in balance. Kevin
  2. Let me add that I was not meaning a shortage of speciality items like N95s masks; just the normal grocery items.
  3. Believe it or not there is no actual shortage of any item in the US (but maybe common sense). The availability retail vs wholesale involves - get this - packaging. The regulations on how to package large and small amounts of things like lettuce and other things like paper products differs based on which market the product is being sold into. A 12 pack of toilet paper in Costco is fundamentally packaged, barcoded and labeled differently than the same product sent to a wholesaler that services many establishments. It takes a lot of time to change over packaging lines that have been dedicated to the wholesale market into lines that can crank out small family sized packs meant to supply the retail market. So there are many products just waiting to be packaged and barcoded into family sized packs but the line capacity for them does not exist. To put it another way. A Shop Rite can't just unpack 1000 rolls of unlabeled toilet paper and try to sell them without a barcode or any labelling that traces the product to the manufacturing site. Sure a tiny corner store can do that - and they do. But big boxes will not assume the risk.
  4. But he gets tested all the time so he can't spread a thing. Wearing a hazmat suit as a public official just spreads alarm. PR 101. Kevin
  5. Well given the state of Russian technology and inability to execute proven technology, the VP is probably far better protected than Putin could ever be. Why does Vlad look like Al Bundy all the time? Kevin
  6. Funny, for a strange reason I was listening to a pandemic audiobook in November. After it Happened. Hours and hours of listening but the very last book you have to purchase. It is a good story that will draw you in and I have to say I am not into fiction. It you are interested, listen to Book 1 before you let your kids in on it. Mild R rating stuff, but no sex. Kevin
  7. The viral outbreak from China is not a natural disaster like an earthquake or a hurricane. It is self inflicted and a product of government whiffing at a curveball. Red China knew they had a major problem and decided it was in their best interest to infect NATO and the West. Asymmetric warfare, with a seasoning of five spice and plausible deniability. But I do say, the Red Chinese never thought it would get so bad in the West that we would close our economies they so depend on. Perhaps Red China was so embarrassed by their lack of CONTROL to contain the bug and they said "What the hell". They contained their own population while allowing international travel for a critical amount of time. Sort of like Europeans giving smallpox blankets to native Americans. Leadership is not a well defined term unless actually given some context. Consumers will lead the US economy back. Not elected officials at any level of government. Individuals, and their friends and family, will lead us out of this morass despite serve restrictions on their freedom. Do not look to the mayor of NYC and actually see a leader. His solution is to print money; productivity be damned. Nice to see you back Steve!!!
  8. Maybe we should all read about this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymerase_chain_reaction This technique has been around for a while. It's important to understand in any discussion on how the US will get out the mess we are in. The last time I reviewed PCR was 4 years ago and it was related to bacterial detection - not a virus. Just so people know, PCR is to the microbiologist as the telescope was to Galileo.
  9. Yep. it was an arrow up the butt wasn't it? As far as buddies go, we are deploying to the 9th on the speakeasy golf course for one more hole .... its almost dark. Thank God our wives are are at the speakeasy salon for another 2 hours. Are you going tell on us? Better not ... this is New Jersey.
  10. Weren't you an early adopter of this therapy back in middle school? That would explain everything. What dude did you name the UV light after? We all want to know. Come on .. fess up. It wasn't Dan Marino was it?
  11. Masks are ordered in some states when 6 feet can't be avoided like in food stores and Home Depot. And now in a few states in salons. Seems to me you want to give the public the opportunity to have their hair done in a controlled situation regulated by the board of health. By people who are inspected and have that little certificate on the wall. Otherwise speakeasy salons are going to pop up all over having no controls other than a bit of common sense. BTW, in NJ they have popped up. Vanity is a powerful thing. There is no way that many women (and some men) are going to put up with unprofessional grooming for months. It is not practical. We have to learn how to provide that service safely in a way that keeps the infection rate to a manageable level within the context of the local health care's capabilities. One reason liquor stores are open is to prevent unregulated speakeasy formation where no guidelines would be practiced. This is not about opening the LA coliseum. It's a short on on one interaction with masks on. If that's going to kill us let's party like it's 1999. Kevin
  12. I wish them well too. If both the client and beautician and the entire shop are practicing proper hygiene and wearing masks of any type, there is little chance of cross contamination. If there is significant contamination under those conditions we need to know yesterday. We need to know how to deal with the China virus, it's going to be with us a long while. In the end, everyone is going to contact the virus. We are just trying to slow the rate of contact. The wife and I came down with symptoms just after the New Year. Yep, we were in NYC to shop and see the Christmas tree at Rockefeller just 2 weeks before. I am pretty sure it was not the China virus due to the overall timing detailed in the news. But they are starting to push back the entry date into the US via nucleotide testing. We are curious and will get tested for antibodies. If we don't have them I hope we get infected soon to get the whole thing over with. We still have corticosteroid left over from January. Good to go. Kevin
  13. Well distancing, hand washing and masks have been a part of modern surgery for a long time now. In my state, barber shops are inspected for hygiene and their business licence will be taken away upon a failed inspection. I very much doubt even a complex lobotomy would pass the China virus to the next chair if the rules are followed. I had an early theory that lock downs will end when enough women can't get their hair colored. I still stand by that. Kevin
  14. The purpose of the post was to highlight the encouraging news on the mortality rate. The build-up of anti-bodies and subsequent immunity is related to the problem we face for sure. But let's not detract from the lower mortality rate that is now, according the epicenter's lead elected official, an order of magnitude lower than previously thought. If this is not good news what is? More good news is the Comfort is setting sail and the Javits center of closing ops at the end of May. Kevin https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/23/navy-comfort-westchester-county-center-coronavirus/3010754001/ https://wcbs880.radio.com/articles/news/usns-comfort-to-leave-nyc-javits-center-hospital-closing
  15. Sorry for the delay since you are asking a question for the history books. Just a crazy day for us. Are you asking if the possibility of saving one life worth job losses now over 20 million in the US? Is one life worth thousands of new business owner's dreams ruined. I think the answer is no. But then the question becomes how many lives saved would justify that magnitude of job losses and impact on the economy? I don't think we will see a Gallup poll on that question since the question touches a raw nerve. But I could see state referendums if this goes into the summer. Referendums on opening up and to what degree. There is no easy answer since it involves how a life is defined and how it's valued. Does a father jump into a rip tide to save an unknown senior risking his own life downing and then not being able to provide for his family for the next 25 years? Would you expect the same father to swim the rip tide to feed his family. Yes. The situation we face is not the same as that, but similar. And magnified a billion times. Many moms and dads are looking at their kids across the table and know they are their primary responsibility. With just enough government money coming in to live on, their kids future looks bleak. Deaths in New York are pretty vague to someone in rural America where the chance of dying is extremely low. This is a cruel situation. It pits the haves vs the have nots; rural vs urban; young vs old; public vs private. I even heard domestic violence calls to 911 are up. Technically, I question the efficacy of closing America 100% except in high density areas. We have been told that distancing and masks are good enough to go to the food store or Home Depot. Gee the liquor stores never had it so good. How about the same practices in furniture stores, a car wash and (dare I say) a barber shop? I think our states should look at their local situation and open up their economies with safeguards in place. We need to learn what society can do safely and not do safely while the virus runs through the population. We can’t do this by sitting on the couch day in and day out. I would like to get this process started ASAP state by state. The virus has to run through the population eventually. Our southern states are trailblazers and I really hope they are successful. I think we all do. Testing and tracing is coming on line. We will never know what volume is sufficient if we don’t open up to some degree in select areas. It’s a judgment call and will always be based on incomplete information. We can’t wait for every piece of the puzzle to come together. If we don’t start to open up the world’s economy soon, there will be nothing left to live for anyway. Looks like the curve is flat in New York. As Todd Beamer said on 9-11: "Are you ready? Okay. Let's roll." Kevin
  16. No, we have the means to stay home and survive with food, heat and hot water etc. through various public programs. But the funding has a finite limit. I was just curious how generous the programs are in the UK. Just so you know in the US "Married couples with no children earning $150,000 or less will receive a total of $2,400." They get less and less as their family income increases. As was said above, the payments were not adjusted for the cost of living where you live nor how your income has changed in the first quarter of 2020 vs 2018 or 2019. It is worth a lot more in West Virginia than in high cost city like LA. Someone in Washington came up with the one size fits all $150,000 figure and $2,400. I have not seen it explained. Pretty sure it was based on some metric and they wanted to get it out fast rather than taylor it to exact family situations which would be more complicated and time consuming to implement. Kevin
  17. Sorry for the delay ... crazy morning. We don't qualify for the $1200 stimulus money. I heard it helps to a degree. More to pay bills than simulate anything. In my state they have grace periods on certain utilities and insurance. That helps to a point. Do you know the name of the 80% program in the UK? It's intriguing to me; how it's financed. We have payroll deductions in the US to pay for unemployment insurance that pays for a set period of time which can be extended under emergency situations. It's at the state level i.e. not a national program. There is a large number who work in jobs where deductions are not made however. Not sure how much it pays. It might pay 80% up to a certain limit e.g. not 80% on an income of a million. Kevin Edit: was interested and in NJ the max benefit would be 80% of a annual income of 42K USD. The average income in NJ is 80K USD. So that amounts to 43% at that income level. Is that comparable to the one set up in the UK? It must be capped to some degree.
  18. Nope it's copyrighted .. will cost 50 USD.
  19. No one knows what you are referring to regarding our discussion here about opening the economy of the USA. You are really coming across as a jerk. Stop being so defensive. State your views in a civil manner and use your mind. Just because you are not an expert, doesn't mean you can't voice a well informed opinion on any topic. Kevin
  20. I said you would like to see misery. I never mentioned deaths. You have been so intellectually placed into a corner its really laughable. This is like Kasparov against ... Alfred e newman. Stop embarrassing yourself.
  21. I would respond technically. But you are now using the mouse to copy and paste willy nilly stuff you never even read critically. And following it up with nothing that makes any sense in the English language. You are incoherent on this topic and lost the debate several days ago. Stop embarrassing yourself. Checkmate.
  22. I know people are really busy but there is some potentially good news from the epicenter of New York.: "Cuomo suggested that an infection rate of 13.9 percent statewide indicates that the death rate could be much lower than what is currently indicated. The state is currently reporting 263,460 confirmed positive coronavirus tests and 15,740 coronavirus deaths statewide, which would indicate a death rate of approximately 6 percent. But if the sample in the antibody testing is indicative of the total percentage of New Yorkers who have antibodies, that means as many as 2.7 million New Yorkers may have had the virus. That would indicate a statewide death rate of about 0.5 percent." https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/04/23/governor-cuomo-daily-coronavirus-update-with-first-antibody-test-results Some folks will not acknowledge this data that was communicated by the Blue state Governor. They can't since it blows away their agenda. So sorry to report good news. Kevin
  23. I don't support the POTUS, but I do support those states that are trying to open slowly in a reasonable manner. If we leave this up Fauci, and other unelected Feds in general, we will never open since they are adverse to any risk what-so-ever. All these states are doing is just backing away from shelter in place and opening parts of their economy in a highly regulated manner. States have epidemiologists too. It's their call, not the Feds. Their reputations are on the line. Fauci is going to be 80 at year's end and is embedded in the Washington bureaucracy. Only in Washington does someone keep a senior position like his at such an advanced age. We can't take his sole opinion on opening or not and when and where as gospel. I really hope these states are successful since they could chart a path for the rest of the country. Kevin https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/21/behind-protests-two-americas-one-unemployed-and-one-gets-paychecks-column/5167453002/ PS: Just to be clear, I am all for distancing and face coverings once shelter in place orders are lifted. I am not advocating just going back like nothing has happened.
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