kevinkin

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kharkiv-oblast-city-planning-evacuation-as-russians-approach Given the slow and costly nature of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the Donbas, any Russian breakthrough in Kharkiv Oblast would be of great concern to Kyiv. It could force Ukraine to reallocate forces and equipment to shore up that front, further diminishing its ability to liberate territory, up to and including Crimea. I don't think we are talking about a "breakthrough". But this is something to keep an eye on. Not sure why the situation is dire enough to publicly announce evacuations. Perhaps a plan of some type. “In the course of combat operations in Kupiansk direction, assault groups of the 6th Combined Arms Army captured four strongholds, five observation posts, destroyed a U.K.-manufactured Spartan Armored Personnel Carrier, one supply point and destroyed up to a company of infantry from the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Mankovka tract,” the Russian MoD claimed. “In addition, during the day the enemy carried out nine counterattacks by units of the 67th and 14th separate mechanized brigades on Russian positions close to Sinkivka and Mankovka tract. All counterattacks were successfully repelled. The enemy losses were up to a platoon of manpower.” Not much to write home about.

Thanks for the post. There has been reporting on China setting up shell companies in Mexico to take advantage free trade. Not if that alone would account for a 25% drop. Interesting to know if that's centered on a few narrows sectors. I think it would be easy to set up a puppet Mexico. Or at least try.

A good friend on mine from work noted that at RIP (Rensselaer) future architects always fell asleep in natural science classes. I noted they were probably "out on the town" all night compared to science and engineering majors. She said: good point. She dated one.

Calm down. Have a lobster roll.

Which sides are you referring too? No one wants them detonated. But lets understand they do equalize an otherwise unequal situation - Russia vs the US. Some have an obsession because WMD are making kingmakers out of pawns.

Amen my father whose art is in Oregon.

Soo ... confirmed!

Tell that to a Ukrainian widow. Typical come back for a person who is uncomfortable in their own skin and world view.

The west was giddy as schools girls with Russia's operational defeats last year. But the west failed to followed through put the hammer down out of fear of WMD. But what they also failed to comprehend is that the weekly strategic drone strikes are also a form of WMD when compounded. No fallout. No chemicals or viruses. But the effect on Ukraine as a young nation with a ancient culture is the same. For over a year the west has been titrating support with the hope of a Russian collapse. The famous sign in the bar; Free Beer! ... Tomorrow. Except nothing here is free. There needs to be a major shift in the strategic calculus whereby WMD are removed from the picture - not physically but effectively. This will not happen on the static battlefield as we see it today. Putin loves what he is getting - death and destruction. He feels it hardens his people. And the west is playing into his hands. At some point western leaders have to stare their citizens in the eyes and tell them this is long war, here is why winning is vital, and we are in WW3 vs authoritarian rulers and the minions that keep them in power. This war is just to big to be nuisanced. Whatever happened to MAD? Why is the west looking so weak. Isn't the west the bastion of hope and prosperity?

I think they have a psyops component to them as well and as way to train a leadership cadre. Raids can produce independent tacticians with a more intimate knowledge of the enemy than 8 weeks in the UK. Raids can deliver distraction and dislocation in the context of maneuver warfare albeit on a very small scale.

https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/08/drone-wars-over-moscow/ Here's the conventional wisdom(?) in nutshell: While drones have proven useful to both sides, they are unlikely to be decisive for either. Their effect on how the war ends will be marginal. In fact, no single weapon or system is capable of providing the decisive edge in this war. Ukraine is receiving – and in the case of drones, producing – weapons of better quality than Russia can field, but Russia retains a numerical advantage and has the ability to escalate in ways Ukraine cannot match, including the use of nuclear weapons. No clear military solution is easily available to either side. This war, like nearly all wars, will end in a negotiated settlement. But that won’t happen until both sides believe they’ll get a better deal by talking than by fighting; right now, both believe they can gain more by fighting. Drone strikes alone are unlikely to change that calculus. The US buys into that, and so does Putin, but wonder if Ukraine does and are their operations being conducted with that understanding? It's almost as if Putin's war is being directed by China who is the only entity that can force him to the table. Otherwise, he thinks time and attrition are on his side.

https://defensescoop.com/2023/08/07/army-may-procure-multiple-variants-of-lasso-kamikaze-drones-to-boost-production-capacity-acquisition-chief-says/ Neat system. Moving to a more unified UAV where it can be adapted based on the objective/target set? Standardization has benefits in the long run. I wonder to the DOD has civilian engineers observing in Ukraine? If not, perhaps they should.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings/index.html Pointing fingers is counterproductive and just what Putin wants. Perhaps time to show resolve and being unified in a new way. Maybe a separate public meeting focused on killing Russians. These old stick NATO summits are just too boiler plate.

Training and more training until the unit is full of potential energy and fired like cannon into the enemy. The unit sees the the horrors or war and those that survive think they are either lucky, really good, blessed by God or a combination of those. To reassemble said unit then add in replacements and assume the survivors will not be cocky goes against human nature. I think the Band of Brothers has several scenes related to this. But what is in human nature that produces that cockiness. Individualism. What militaries do is take the best foot soldiers and promote them after heavy action. For good reason - that way they tow the company line with a higher shield of authority over the replacements. But some can't take the difference between squad and company leader. They just rather return to the familiarity of how they survived. It's sort of simple: no one who has little experienced in what I went through is going to train me. Ukraine does not have the luxury to let combat vets completely reset and come back with an open mind.

Yikes: https://abcnews.go.com/International/woman-arrested-plot-kill-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine/story?id=102065597 As investigators gathered additional info, they found that the woman had been locating Ukraine’s defense systems and ammunition warehouses throughout the Ochakov region, they said. She traveled to the region and photographed sites, officials said. The woman had allegedly been planning to share that info with Russia for “a new massive air strike” in the region. Zelenksyy said he was briefed on "the struggle against traitors in Ukraine" during his daily conference call with Ukrainian leaders on Monday.

They are becoming unhinged: https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-to-launch-lunar-mission-friday-first-in-nearly-50-years-e99f353d

From the Sunday NYT: https://dnyuz.com/2023/08/06/putins-forever-war/ Travel log around war torn Russia.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-and-china-sent-large-naval-patrol-near-alaska-127de28b Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska, a Republican member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said the patrol was a reminder that the U.S. has entered “a new era of authoritarian aggression” and applauded the robust U.S. response. Making a sales call for the UA? As if this is going to stop US aid. But still, go practice somewhere else.

I would check off this behavior as a part of FOW. Your pixel troops are not perfect and there are "background things" that might "distract them" from expected behavior. It can be frustrating, but so is war. Generally, these behaviors equal out. Are you using covered arcs? That really helps response time.

Thanks for the article as it does examine the idea that attrition is another form of maneuver warfare. And I agree that firepower is more important than manpower. The outcome of the math requires accurate numbers which we don't have. We don't know if UA losses are efficient. Separating material losses and manpower losses does not last forever. Especially if the attacking force is on the long term inferior manpower side. That means UA needs firepower now. It needs to increase the RA loss rate in relative terms. There are so many unknowns, distilling this down to math as we would in peace time, may not produce an accurate result. The RA may crush the UA in a month or never. Moral factors play a role as well. That's in the work of phycology. A concern is that the west may see their UA proxy as obtaining the west's objects short of Ukraine obtaining theirs. That goes beyond the calculus of combat. The article is thought provoking for sure. Glad you posted it. PS: The article mentions the western brigades are "crack" which has not been demonstrated on the battlefield. Little training + little combat experience does not equal crack. Better than what they will face? A high probably, but not as simple as arithmetic in a real horrific war of survival.

Let's see if Vlad makes his schedule public: https://dnyuz.com/2023/08/05/man-of-the-people-jolted-by-a-mutiny-putin-works-the-crowds/

ISW: Russian authorities are continuing to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of summer camps. Has there been any reporting/analysis on the potential of Russia using these kids as barter in negotiations if/when they start? It's a very hard subject to discuss. I would rather not bring up my views on the matter except to say this one issue might prolong the conflict beyond the current kinetic fighting more than any other. Unless these kids are allowed to disappear in the fog of war forever and forgotten.

Wait a second, the Matrix already implemented a super simple common language and it's here - Emojis. No Dictator Of The World needed; humans do this to ourselves.

Having a common language between allies is important depending on the level of command. At the tactical level, basic commands and responses will work. As you move up the command level and dealing with NATO, English becomes mandatory. Zeleinsky is not perfect at English but he can address Congress. It does not mean a company commander has to be that proficient. At that level, the warfighter has to be as proficient as to get the job done. If a warrior wants to volunteer to fight on deadly battlefield without knowing what his fellow fighters are saying so be it. "Anglophone" militaries are not sending volunteers. But if NATO put troops on the ground in numbers, one of the considerations in planning joint ops would be communication skills or strong training for a short and specific op where language would not be an issue. I am sure the UA takes knowledge of English into consideration and spreads that knowledge around where it's most important to a point that it is a strategic asset. Small numbers of volunteers need to learn the basics of the local military speak if they so choose, not the other way around. But the default language for regulars will be English. This not an unknown issue, but the UA is fighting to survive and first things first. https://www.voanews.com/a/armed-with-english-ukraine-soldiers-take-language-lessons/6889881.html

I thought the same thing while out today: Historian Samuel Eliot Morison wrote in his official postwar naval history, “One of the most reprehensible failures on our part was the neglect of the local communities to dim their waterfront lights, or of military authorities to require them to do so, until three months after the submarine offensive started. When this obvious defense measure was first proposed, squawks went up all the way from Atlantic City to southern Florida that the ‘tourist season would be ruined.’ Miami and its luxurious suburbs threw up six miles of neon-light glow, against which the southbound shipping that hugged the reefs to avoid the Gulf Stream was silhouetted. Ships were sunk and seamen drowned in order that the citizenry might enjoy business and pleasure as usual.” Reading this, isn't the Crimea in some sort of tourist season now? It took the US a few months to enforce blackouts. But they did.