kevinkin

Over at War Zone this afternoon: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/wagner-turns-over-2000-heavy-weapons-including-tanks-sam-systems Prig de-fanged?

We can assume there is enough hardware with the capability of stopping ATACMS. But that is not the entire story. First it only takes 1-2 to get through, so the Russian crews have to be almost perfect. It would also depend on the number and timing of the incoming missiles and any distracting tactics the UA might come up with. So, the Kerch bridge would be vulnerable to a determined attack. It would be a nail biter for well trained and motivated air defense crews. Everything has to work out as planned. And who knows how good the Russia crews are when the pressure is on defending Putin's bridge. There are automated parts to the system. But they can fail in Russian hands.

Let's not forget that those 31 NATO nations - combined with a less than stellar RA - still resulted in over 100K Ukrainian causalities and a wreaked infrastructure . The RA is still capable of fighting a less than stellar defensive war trading lives with a smaller country hiding behind the ever present nuclear blackmail. That black mail has been more effective than dozens of S-400 battalions in keeping the skies over Ukraine clear of NATO aircraft. Time for that to end starting with a no-fly zone over Ukraine's internationally recognized territory. With the unpredictable consequences of US election cycle starting in January, time is of the essence. Trading lives, even at a favorable rate for Ukraine, won't be fast enough I fear and a risky strategy that surrenders any initiative.

That's true. But this is a modern attrition war the likes of which we have not seen. When was the last time formations were recruited under such intense modern combat conditions? This is not our grand daddy's war. I don't think the US Army ever would find itself with such inexperienced leaders. If so, the war would have been decided well before that. So this war is unique in many respects. Ukraine does not have a knock-out blow to stop the carnage. The UA has to make do with what is can muster. But that level of experience does not lend itself to successful modern offensive operations using complex systems that need to be synchronized to dig the enemy out into the open. It's a problem. Donating small packets of systems from all over the map is not the solution. This is a war of survival for Ukraine. The armchair generals in western capitols are just throwing money at the problem without any plan except to drag two unwilling enemies to the table having exhausted themselves on the battlefield. Borders be damned.

Posted from 1945 a bunches of pages back and to your point: Experience from 1991, but it rings true today: Further, we were fully staffed by privates and crewmen who had trained for over a year on their combat vehicles, crews that were highly proficient in their individual tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and then additional training at the platoon, company, battalion, and finally regimental (brigade) levels. Even more critically: our leaders at each level – platoon through brigade – had experience commensurate for their positions – one to two years for platoon leaders, five years for a company commander, 12 to 15 years for a battalion commander, and 22 years for the regimental commander. Ukraine has none of these components. For example, one of the elite Ukrainian brigades, the 47th Mechanized Brigade, was commanded by an officer – 28-year-old Col. Oleksandr Sak – with about as much experience as a seasoned lieutenant in an American tank brigade. Virtually all of the Ukrainian offensive brigades have been formed and trained in mere months, with elemental training from NATO countries, given a hodgepodge of modern Western and old Soviet equipment, with grossly insufficient time to form cohesive units, much less coordinated and equipped combined arms formations. A 1945 Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Without significant NATO assistance, it's getting cruel to ask the UA to do what is nearly impossible on the west's behalf. If the west thinks Ukraine already won the war and Russian lost in geostrategic terms, let's move Putin over to our way of thinking. And fast.

Without NATO airpower, it's difficult to find a assertive way forward into the operational depth of the Russian defense. Penny packets of AFVs are just replacements. Ammo shipments are just replacements. The UA would have to stop offensive ops now and husband those donations for a later date. But that is unacceptable from a pubic image POV. It's a horrible dilemma. Putin is loving this. If Ukraine has something unconventional and devious up it's sleeve, I can't wait.

Zelensky is not happy: https://thehill.com/policy/international/4090499-zelensky-says-uncertainty-over-ukraines-nato-membership/ I don't blame him. But he has to know a) kinetic fighting needs to end b) then Ukraine enters NATO c) there will be an uneasy peace for a long time. This is the west's endgame. All the talk about reclaiming 100% of Ukraine is slipping through their fingers. The UA will not commit their western brigades until assurances from the west (e.g. airpower) are in place. Zelensky will not play his ace in the hole until certain battlefield conditions are met. Those conditions are not under his complete control. Without those conditions, the UA can't impose its will on the RA. Meanwhile sustained offensive pressure could cause some form of collapse. But that is more an indication of Russian weakness than western strength. Since negotiating with Putin is nearly impossible, NATO has to step up now. Anything Russian on Ukrainian soil should be considered hostile by NATO and then proceed per their doctrine. But, that's not the west's endgame - so around and around we go. Where the war stops nobody knows.

Aren't there plenty of wargames out that depict today's war in Ukraine? All that competition must make BF very nervous. Look for something that comes out of the blue aka Cold War. But I doubt precious development time will be devoted to the present horrific war for good reason.

This war is heading toward sticks and stones or a game of whack a mole: War Zone: Is Ukraine Using Old S-200 SAMs In The Land-Attack Role? Russia claims Ukrainian S-200 SAMs were launched against ground targets as video emerged supposedly showing one of the strikes. However, I bet on the UA being better at getting the most out what they have. Perhaps the RA is so reliant on arty that shortages will affect them more.

WSJ: NATO Chief Says Turkey Has Agreed to Let Sweden Join Alliance The pact follows hours of negotiations ahead of the military organization’s summit in Lithuania AP: Russian mercenary leader Prigozhin’s commanders met Putin after short-lived mutiny, pledged loyalty Just five days after staging a short-lived rebellion, mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin ‘s commanders met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and pledged loyalty to the government, a senior government spokesman said Monday, the latest twist in a baffling episode that has raised questions about the power and influence both men wield.

I think much of eastern Ukraine has some tactical value in the ongoing war, but sadly little economic value for years. This is especially true of the more urbanized areas.

Another addition to the ongoing cluster discussion: The HIMARs system can also fire missiles with bomblets. The M26A2 ER rockets carrying 518 M77 submunitions. Range: 15–45 kilometres (9.3–28.0 mi). Not sure if the US is sending these, but why not?

I have that book. Great idea. Another testament to the CM series that training scenarios remain valued by new and long time players.

Beside the moral question re: clusters, a reason for their release is that the UA and the west are running out of standard shells and the replacement rate will be insufficient for offensive ops and problematic for defensive ones to hold ground gained. Apparently: A March 2023 letter from top House and Senate Republicans to the Biden administration said the US may have as many as 3 million cluster munitions available for use, and urged the White House to send the munitions to alleviate pressure on US war supplies. I think the question of morality should come up later when the west attempts to fund their replacement. Someone in an office in Washington knew this situation was enviable. It's math. This is why a "just enough pressure", "just enough not to lose", "we can't have Russia lose", but "Ukraine can win strategy" will not go too much farther. How did the west put itself into a position were some are concerned for NATO's security re: of all things - ammo? Wouldn't it be ironic if NATO falls back on its airpower just to keep Ukraine in the game. Air power that should have been involved months ago.

https://www.aol.com/ukraine-russia-news-live-ukrainian-033530377.html Key Points Zelensky says Ukraine holds ‘initiative’ on battlefield Putin’s aide Medvedev threatens attack on nuclear plants in Kyiv and Europe ‘Important’ call between US and Ukraine’s top diplomats before Nato summit Russia accuses US of ‘war crimes’ over cluster munitions sent to Ukraine (that's rich) Russia sees 400 casualties per day in Ukraine war, facing medical aid crisis – UK MoD (another vulerability)

"Prigmatic:" https://news.yahoo.com/poland-moves-troops-eastern-border-164348364.html

War Zone reports the anticipated JDAM-ER is coming online: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/mig-29-fulcrums-are-ukraines-jdam-er-bomb-trucks Will be interesting to what tactics put them to good use given the glide range is 10-12 miles.

One guy's opinion on the futility of war against a determined/enslaved/threatened/nothing to lose enemy: https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/07/i-fired-cluster-munitions-in-combat-they-wont-win-the-war-in-ukraine/ What conditions will have to be met before Ukraine commits to using those western brigades? They are their ace in the hole to guard the bulk of the country. What a brave decision it will be.

Pie in the sky, but I wonder if this type of comms set up could be use in terrestrial combat of the the future. There is understandable concern that HQs and communications are too easily found and disrupted. The key would be the middle man remote ground vehicle which is in constant movement transmitting from the front to decision makers. Maybe this reminds me of something already in development. Anyway, I find this story inspiring: https://mars.nasa.gov/news/9430/nasas-ingenuity-mars-helicopter-phones-home/?utm_source=iContact&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nasas-mars-public-engagement-team&utm_content=20230705MarsNewsletter

I agree. Could be the UA will hold them back. I look their use like bird hunting tactics. The trained pointer flushes the birds out and the shot gun delivers them to the dinner table. Or in combat, if the UA can break in and threaten breakthroughs, retreating Russians heading for prepared lines in the rear can be effectively engaged in the open.

Just wonder, as these munitions arrive in theater, if the UA will delay releasing their "western" brigades into the fight? They could be useful in sealing off a break in operations from counterattacks since those will have to come in via open ground. So now maybe the Fall will see mechanized warfare - war of movement - aided by by clusters. They are not a miracle weapon. But the UA is pretty good at husbanding recourses.

Agree. The idea is to make each hub less profitable and with the system being able to heal if distributed nodes are discovered and destroyed. Also, the system might be able to move to new positions quickly. Sort like the Harlem Trotters dribbling routines. Now you see em, now you don't. Not perfect. Just another way to frustrate the enemy.

All those years optimizing CM AI put you guys are on the same page I guess: https://www.yahoo.com/news/ai-robots-tell-un-conference-133934214.html

Wouldn't there be a way to track where these are used within Ukraine in 2023? Unlike "Southeast Asia in the 1960s and 1970s, Afghanistan , Iraq , and coalition forces during Operation Desert Storm, and in Yugoslavia" the west has an intense interest in rebuilding all that was Ukraine. I would place this on the growing to do list when rebuilding starts in earnest. I pretty confident there will be able to an engineering solution. Unfortunately much of the borderland will be a no go for a long time even if clusters were off the table.

Don't these idiots have a war to fight somewhere: https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2023/07/07/russian-jets-harass-us-drones-over-syria-for-second-time-in-24-hours/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d What are they trying to prove, Russia is a global power and can fight with an expeditionary force by picking on drones?