kevinkin

Redoing backward thinking with some forward thinking: https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-attacks-on-russia-us-army-command-post-vulnerability-2023-7 If the US work force is moving to remote operations, military command does not have to commute to large hubs to get the job done. I think it's about power generation in the field, its storage and reliable comms.

Appears to be movement on this issue with some kind of announcement today: https://news.yahoo.com/us-plans-send-controversial-cluster-122914921.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

Setting other preconditions: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/former-us-officials-secret-ukraine-talks-russians-war-ukraine-rcna92610 This was out in the Spring making their case. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-richard-haass-west-battlefield-negotiations All for Peace, but this comes across as a bit desperate and weak. Unless it's just a fresh water fishing trip staged in salt water. You never know what a bottom feeder like Putin might bite on. So what the heck.

WSJ this morning: Ukraine Nears Nuclear Deal With Bulgaria in Fresh Blow for Russian Influence: Bulgaria turns against Moscow in negotiating the sale of two Russian-designed reactors to Kyiv Another screw tightening.

Over at War Zone: Crashed Storm Shadow Missile Falls Into Russian Hands: The Storm Shadow missile isn’t cutting edge, but it could still be of significant intelligence value to an adversary

No one supported Prig at all. He is a monster - and that insults monsters. As Steve said above, we supported a manageable level of chaos behind Russian lines. Enthusiasm following the exciting 48 hours should not be mistaken for some form of approval. That ****er ain't on our team.

Predicting the life span and end of certain institutions reminds me of the Liddy Effect (known by other names). The Lindy effect describes a heuristic or rule of thumb that suggests the future life expectancy of certain non-perishable things, such as ideas, technologies, or cultural artifacts, is proportional to their current age. In other words, the longer something has already existed, the longer it is likely to continue existing. The Lindy effect is based on the observation that many ideas, technologies, or cultural phenomena that have survived for a long time tend to have built-in mechanisms that make them more robust, adaptable, and reliable. The Lindy effect is not a hard and fast rule but rather a probabilistic observation. It suggests that the longer something has endured, the more likely it is to continue enduring. This is because over time, the flaws or vulnerabilities of an idea or technology are more likely to be discovered and eliminated, making it more robust. The Lindy effect has implications for decision-making and forecasting. It suggests that when assessing the potential longevity or viability of something, it is often beneficial to consider its historical track record and the duration it has already been in existence. This concept has found applications in fields such as technology adoption, investment strategies, and cultural analysis. There are many examples that do not fit and nothing lasts forever for sure. The use of horses for mobility is over. But the wheel they used and agriculture they depend on are still with us. Longevity is the result of adaptation and resilience. So, even when we observe what amounts being a train wreak, there are underlying reasons why it stays on the tracks. And studying those reasons provides actionable insights. That's why I don't sell a stock that has increased dividends each year for over 50+ years. While the stock holder has no influence, they know something is being done right. In the case of evil empires they are doing something "correctly" to hold on to power over time. The Lindy principle does predict good and evil will struggle against each other forever.

Tiny report with a small pearl of wisdom: "The question is, how do you take a front line that is more than a thousand kilometers long and turn it into more of a problem for Russia than for Ukraine?" he said. "That is why you are seeing multiple axes being probed and feints by Ukraine." https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-war-russia-lost-half-combat-effectiveness-tanks-counter-offensive-2023-7 So in terms of maneuver warfare, the length of the front with respect to the correlation of forces is a critical vulnerability to exploit via recon pull i.e. finding gaps rather than forcing them open with greater causalities.

UAVs and connectivity advances: V-band is unique because it causes radio signals to resonate with oxygen molecules in the air– a phenomenon called oxygen absorption. The size of the oxygen molecule almost perfectly resonates with radio frequency signals attenuation, which creates a curtain of invisibility between a tactical team and its adversary. Within the V-band, connectivity truly has a quality of low probability of detection. Cloaking à la Star Trek. Now, if they could do this with CO2 maybe I won't feel guilty lighting up the BBQ this July 4. https://defenseopinion.com/as-ukraine-demonstrates-data-security-is-a-big-vulnerability-for-drones/412/

Nothing really that scintillating, but the summary is a good reminder: “Putin and his whole system now face a dilemma,” Mr. Petrov said. “If you keep the principle of loyalty as more important than effectiveness, then there won’t be the risks that were associated with the mutiny. But there won’t be any hope for a more effective functioning of the system, either.” https://dnyuz.com/2023/07/04/after-armed-rebellion-putin-tries-to-reinforce-his-defenses/

B-52s Keep Up Surge in Bomber Activity over Korean Peninsula https://www.airandspaceforces.com/b-52s-surge-bomber-activity-korean-peninsula/ Let's consider moving those demonstrations about 4,500 miles to the west. Hot off the presses over at War Zone: The Ukrainian Air Force on Monday released a video that appeared to included a tacit claim that one of its donated Patriot air defense systems downed several Russian aircraft on May 13, a day when Moscow lost at least four and possibly five aircraft within its own borders. “It would be a wasted shot in my opinion,” he said. “I say that based on mission requirements. Patriot systems are deployed to defend critical assets, meaning not take ‘pot shots’ at long range targets who may be planning to strike elsewhere.” Given that, four, or even five kills from that distance would be a significant feat. It is also possible, Shank noted, that Ukraine could have set up remote site launchers to engage targets further out. It's also possible, he said, that the Patriot's radar was able to detect and track targets that far and relay information to an air defense system much closer. Ukraine is great at keeping everyone guessing even their allies.

They can hit a moving terrorist truck so I would at least give them a test like I said above and rule them in or out quickly. Something might be learned. But with a 40 minute life, a trap would have to sprung based on the predictability of RA tactics.

The tail rotor is the the Achilles heal for choppers. However Kh-52 uses counter rotating main rotors to replace the tail. If you can unsynchronized the two main rotors the chopper is unflyable for combat. Even a minor hit could become successful. The switch blade is 6000 USD a piece. I wonder if they could be used vs attack choppers in the short term. You would want to add some additional sensors other than the camera. But wonder if the idea has hit the proving ground? The larger Switchblade 600 is effective against armored targets and can fly for more than 40 minutes, but weighs 50 pounds, according to the manufacturer.

There is also a major supply issue regarding artillery shells (on both sides). The ground can absorb a lot of shock when the trenches are well made. On top of that, the UA is spreading their initial offensive moves across the front. So available shells can't be concentrated. Additionally, Russia is attacking in some northern sectors and those attacks need to be punished. I think hitting Russians outside their trenches is an efficient use of the shells in short supply.

Lasers might be first.

I think the west is working on all sort of systems based on the combat in this latest war. The stinger is still functional but some components are difficult to procure. Raytheon has announced they are developing a new MANPAD for the 2020's to fit in with today's supply chain. So Ukraine is behind the 8 ball with respect to the numbers available and the best technology is years away.

The n-word is surfacing. Mines Mines Mines. The aim is not to recapture all of Ukrainian land, maybe not even 75%, but to destroyed the RA in place, while rolling the dice for a major moral collapse in the RA where by the UA cuts off Crimea and then can negotiate from strength. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/cia-director-on-secret-trip-to-ukraine-hears-plan-for-war-s-endgame/ar-AA1dhlSJ With arty shells at a premium and no air support to pound Russian conscripts, those mines are force multipliers for a the defender. On a much larger scale, this sort of reminds me of the US urgency over solving IEDs in Iraq. NATO supplied ordnance has killed thousands of Russians. What's the big deal with precision NATO airstrikes on Ukrainian soil that will by definition kill less?

All mines are a big factor. Even if you can create a mine free avenue into and past the MLR, that channels the attacker into defined kill zones. For example, if choppers remain hidden they can fly direct to a kill zone with having to hunt, they are far safer and effective.

Or when the movie releases.

Downfall : the end of the Imperial Japanese Empire (1999) https://archive.org/details/downfallendofimp00fran/page/n15/mode/2up In a riveting narrative that includes information from newly declassified documents, acclaimed historian Richard B. Frank gives a scrupulously detailed explanation of the critical months leading up to the dropping of the atomic bomb. Frank explains how American leaders learned in the summer of 1945 that their alternate strategy to end the war by invasion had been shattered by the massive Japanese buildup on Kyushu, and that intercepted diplomatic documents also revealed the dismal prospects of negotiation. Here also, for the first time, is a comprehensive account of how Japan's leaders were willing to risk complete annihilation to preserve the nation's existing order. Frank's comprehensive account demolishes long-standing myths with the stark realities of this great historical controversy. So the allies had three scenarios: nuke, invade, blockade and starve (carpet bomb too). Of the three, the atomic bomb was the most compassionate for a war torn world including Japan. Can you image the insurgency the Japanese would have waged for years. Radiation does suck, but the war needed to end. Fire bombing of Tokyo killed more but was less persistent given the radiation. Sure it was a signal to Stalin. But Russia quickly evened the playing field with their spies.

I am not sure how much further traditional sanctions can go. The west has to slowly take apart the behind the scenes networks that supply Russia even with formal sanctions in place. This involves nations we want to be friends with. But those nations have their short term interests and people to provide for. In the end, the war is like a bad tooth. Fillings will not solve the underlying issue and the tooth has to be painfully pulled out on the battlefield.

That was a scenario discussed last Sunday a little bit. Either way, pretty dysfunctional.

I wonder who will invest in Ukraine when their investment is under fire from cruise missile strikes from a spiteful Russia? If the situation stabilizes for perhaps a year and the ongoing shooting war takes a long break, all good will flow to the good guys. Russian may have lost, but Ukraine has some hard work ahead to win things like NATO membership and investments other then financing the bare necessities. No London Eye in Kiev unless Russia knows the wrath of God will descend if they use it for target practice.

The Rhino tank. The brush rows are not as heavy as hedgerows but probably can hang up a AFV is a few places.

Looking into that since the UA unit did not attack head on but was able to get into position to roll up the the enemy line horizontally. The Germans would often place MG nests a the intersection of hedgerows to prevent that and crossfire the open fields.