kevinkin

So Wagner was "invited" into Belarus. Another story from an hour ago: https://news.yahoo.com/prigozhin-already-started-brand-threat-185126688.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

Thanks for the post. A key statement: "When the first assault detachment approached Moscow, it became obvious that a lot of blood would be shed, so we felt that a "demonstration of what we wanted to do was sufficient" - Head of Wagner PMC Prigozhin Move toward Moscow was a demonstration that could not be made sitting in Rostov. Sure, if there was zero resistance, they might have inched forward until they received a reaction.

Middle of the road take: https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/news/putin-is-in-pretty-good-shape-after-mutiny-council-on-foreign-relations/vi-AA1d19mB?t=0 Summary: Putin is in pretty good shape, but has taken a hit internationally. Internally, it's batten down the hatches and full speed ahead.

A bit on the China angle today: https://news.yahoo.com/xi-bet-putin-looks-even-095136796.html Xi : "That ****ing idiot. He's starting to turn the evil axis into a laughing stock" “This chaotic sort of conclusion can only be seen as a loss for Beijing,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “It highlights the fragility of its most important partner on the world stage, it highlights the weakness of a man President Xi had sought to show himself close to and, if it leads to the end of the war, then it will free up some Western assets to refocus on China.”

During the heat of "battle" I thought something along the same lines. The deal: retain, rest and re-fit his troops while placing them in operational reserve for a while. The last part is really the wild card since we are unsure what the true goal of the thunder run was e.g. a real coup or a flamboyant bargaining chip that allows some to save face and other to lose it.

BBC: After a weekend of mayhem, I'm beginning to understand why Russia's national symbol is the double-headed eagle: two heads staring in opposite directions. Ha Reporting on the Wagner uprising, the presenter played an extract from an old Putin interview. "Are you able to forgive?" "Yes. But not everything." "What can't you forgive?" "Treachery." I wonder if Yevgeny Prigozhin was watching. Prig's apparent bailout and retirement will be closely watched and might be informative.

My assumption was they would be "invited" in under Putin's orders to Lukashenko. No fighting. I can't imagine Russia attacking Belarus in order to create a northern front. But I can't imagine moving Wagner into Belarus even under invitation would be worth the effort. They be just camping the summer away in the woods.

I read that. Chief of operations vs the ceremonial general. I was thinking about a northern front too. I would be surprised if they would attack out of Belarus into that awful terrain. I think Wagner might actually outnumber the Belarus armed forces and don't think Lukashenko would like them on their soil.

If mass mobilization has so much baggage associated with it, and Wagner's troops are superior anyway, does that leave Russia dependent on Prig? I mean they turned about face and stormed Rostov under his so called leadership. Is Prig replaceable? Everyone is replaceable especially if they are a figure head. Let's see what happens and whether he resurfaces.

So Putin would have stopped the thunder run in its tracks if he had a sniff of it from FSB? Did he have the resources to do so without a lot bloodshed? Bingo. However, there a lot of places I would rather go than inside Putin's head. So I can't predict his behavior.

We are coming to the conclusion the FSB knew something was up. So they either kept it to themselves (heads might roll) or they told Putin. If the they told Putin, he either turned the blind eye, or was complicit to some degree. If he knew, was his flight staged i.e. transponder active? He could have fled in secret if the thought the move on Moscow was a real threat. So why would Putin want to make a fool of himself? Maybe he does care what the world and Russians think (they are brain dead) while finding out who are his real allies in the inner circle.

Gee, even those without humor got a tickle out of the events: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-russia-officials-meet-in-beijing-after-threat-to-putin/ar-AA1d0s9Q In a potential dig at Russia, a Weibo account operated by a part of the People’s Liberation Army published a post by China National Radio about how Mao Zedong revamped the PLA in 1927 — an event that ensured the party retained absolute leadership over the army.

Holy **** they kidnapped ZZ Top and their manager.

Do we have any idea want percent of Wagner troops went to Rostov and on to Moscow? It couldn't have been everyone.

Nothing like a road trip to clear your head of the thinking about death everyday.

TV News Report: Erdoğan calls Putin. Willing to help with a peaceful resolution of - well - everything I guess. https://www.aol.com/news/turkeys-erdogan-urges-russias-putin-150703738.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9zZWFyY2gueWFob28uY29tLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAA1FGtRtC8nI1E_twj9NJEtx76IFwrEWkw2BEzTQFPhJRmWBee_oRPuqDfLyxIh8M_8LC0Epr5V0JD0RxRrpx3G7IRMySMWHNZB0gKp5VncDBqtD9Gc3xSPNo15kyXBfZRQfx3gdJpYJQdt1uz78d9vJ5OG9nsVDaQ6w5rr3IW2g

Someone once said that it's not real in Russia unless their are a lot bodies. This is a very odd coup.

Given the speed of the resolution of the matter (hours) might have some of this been pre-planned? Putin gets Prig out of his hair and screws with Russian mind for a while and Prig goes out some sort of hero. I think term false-flag might start popping up. But with a dozen dead, not so sure. But I agree, its's too early to tell and rely on official Russian statements.

BBC: Russian state media have just reported that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin will leave for Belarus. The reports say charges against him and his Wagner forces will be dropped by Russian authorities to avoid "bloodshed". Also Russia offers military roles to Wagner fighters We've just heard from Dmitry Peskov, President Putin's press secretary. Peskov says Wagner mercenaries who wish to sign a Ministry of Defence contract can, and fighters who took part today's uprising will not be prosecuted. Is this the end of Wagner, at least in this war?

Who knows: https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/2500093-russian-mercenary-boss-prigozhin-will-move-to-belarus-under-wagner-deal-kremlin-says https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/world/article/alert-kremlin-spokesman-says-wagner-owner-18169127.php

TV News Report Prig moving to Belarus as part of "deal".

Rotten, some think she better than the alternative. Wiki: On 10 September 2020 a law was passed by the Lithuanian Parliament which recognises Tsikhanouskaya as the "elected leader of the people of Belarus" and the Coordination Council as the "only legitimate representatives of the Belarusian people". The resolution also declares that Lukashenko is an "illegitimate leader". On 17 September 2020, the European Parliament recognised the coordination council as the "interim representation of the people demanding democratic change" in Belarus. However, the comment was not about so much her but as to whether Belarus could be a PIA for Russia.

BBC: Earlier today, Svitlana Tikhanovskaya, the opposition leader who challenged Lukashenko in 2020 presidential elections, said the Wagner’s rebellion “is the best chance to kick the Russian military out from [Belarus]”. “If we miss this chance,” she said in her video appeal, “Russia will do to us exactly what they did to Ukraine.” Could their people take to the streets again? More headaches and distractions for Russia.

Maybe Prigozhin negotiated placing Wargner in some form of reserve role for the time being. Rest and re-fit. That’s a lot of troops to pull out of the line. But perhaps with rotation he might become God-like to his workers. Sure a few nightclubs would love the cash.

I see. Two thugs get a third thug to mediate. Organized crime's form of arbitration.