kevinkin

Devolution of Russian hybrid warfare: https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/how-russias-hybrid-warfare-changing Long with a scholarly essay. On the other hand, Russia’s best theory of war for much of its history was to use terrain and fight defensively. That is still available, assuming Russia can develop leaders that can motivate the people with nationalism rather than Russkiy Mir (Slavic Union) concepts, which perhaps reach too far and require offensive capability. And yet, it still has a massive nuclear arsenal, meant as a deterrent but in the current environment with the current leadership often referred to in offensive terms. Russia needs to step away from this methodology and return to its hybrid warfare approach, where its military capability is primarily focused on defensive measures. Under the current government, this seems unlikely, and avoiding a wider-scale European war is becoming a significant challenge. [YUCK] The change in Russia's approach to waging the war in Ukraine may only happen when significant shifts in state authority are established, either through civil unrest or a military coup. History has demonstrated that Russia has experienced such changes on numerous occasions. We can only hope that if such a situation arises now, the new ruling elites will possess the means and strategies to put an end to this bloody and endless war. [Double YUCK] Are seeing we seeing the worm turn with commentators? Either Russia collapses or negotiations are coming this winter?

Interesting that a detailed first person account does not go further into the geostrategic ramifications of "bloody attritional fighting for months." For example, is it sustainable? Which side benefits. What would it take for the west to go all in to prevent said months long attritional fighting? Waiting for a sudden collapse while feeding reserves into the fight lacks a lot of imagination on NATO's part if they really want to kick Russia out of Ukraine soon. If they want this to be a forever war (Korea/Middle east) then fess up.

If the RA chooses to make a demonstration and leave positions fainting an attack, doing so against thinner UA lines would be less costly. However, to your point, the RA might feel confident thinking the south will hold long enough to bring troops to the rescue. A lot of movement, a lot of fuel, and and lot of exposure to UA deep strikes.

Any reason to think the monkey business in Belarus is part of this type of distraction? Even if in a smallish way?

War Zone reporting tonight: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyiv-claims-massive-russian-buildup-near-kharkiv By comparison, Cherevatyi noted, “the largest number of Soviet troops in Afghanistan was 120,000." The 100,000 troop number is bewilderingly large. While we cannot confirm it, even a significant portion of that figure would be highly concerning. The Russians “are concentrating everything in order to break through our defenses” the spokesman said. “Our soldiers are on the defensive. They don't allow the enemy to finally seize the initiative. That's why they hit them constantly.” “The operational situation in the Eastern direction remains difficult,” Commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Monday, according to the Military Media Center Telegram channel. “In order to stop the offensive actions of our troops in the area of Bakhmut, the enemy is actively transferring additional forces and means to this direction, [including some] airborne troops.” Let's see comes of this over night - if anything. Hard to believe we are just hearing about a major concentration just now.

Add this a-hole to the growing list: https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-belarus-abducts-thousands-ukrainian-060000079.html

Not to harm anyone to clarify.

How about a well placed munition to merely cause panic among all those stuck on the highway. Bring to the war home to the elite beach goers.

They have not stopped the grain up until now. What has changed? The had three chances to do so. Maybe they care less about "guilty sub human Ukrainians" close to the war zone than innocent third world babies in far away Africa. Think about it.

https://news.yahoo.com/crimea-bridge-key-russian-supply-050455702.html Russia has extended the Black Sea deal three times in the past year, despite repeated threats to quit. It suspended participation after an attack on its fleet by seaborne Ukrainian drones in October, leading to a few days when Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations kept exports going without Moscow. Denys Marchuk, deputy head of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, the main agribusiness organization in Ukraine, said seaborne exports might proceed again without Russian agreement. "If there will be safety guarantees from our partners, then why not conduct the grain initiative without Russia's participation?" he told Reuters. Any such resumption of shipments without Russia's blessing would probably depend on insurers. Industry sources told Reuters they were studying whether to freeze their coverage. "The (key) question is whether Russia mines the area which would effectively cease any form of cover being offered," one insurance industry source said. Mining would not be a step Putin (or whomever) would take. Would not be worth the PR or any reaction from NATO to save the starving.

Those are good examples. Yet, I think tensions would have to cool off before NATO would accept a nation involved in a hot war. That might take years even if the UA reclaims everything. However, when an "opening" appears, NATO should grab it.

Well that's one way to beat the Kerch Bridge traffic to the beach. I wonder if the pilot or the picnic basket had priority for the parachute?

Hearing some commentators are now forwarding that as long as Putin maintains a defensible presence in Ukraine, NATO is off the table. I suppose that means the recently annexed regions. But would that also hold true for Crimea? Putin is trying for a pyric victory the sell to his public -> see we held NATO at bay against all odds.

The source document is in Russian. So maybe something was lost in the translation? If he were obligated, where would that stem from? Battlefield realities? Bromance with Prig. With regard to Wagner, right now actions mean more than words. The west should keep an eye on them. But here is a good one if folks are having a bad day: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/putin-sent-wagner-to-belarus-to-prepare-attack-on-poland-russian-lawmaker/ar-AA1dUmKJ AP on the Kommersant interview: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-putin-wagner-a2fac2683191c0605441e93504ae14c8

Not a matter of taking Kiev, but making the nation as a whole look over their collective shoulder. Like I said, unlikely. But it is is interesting to think of how Wagner will be used going forward. Dispersing them seems to be counter productive. https://apnews.com/article/russia-belarus-wagner-lukashenko-prigozhin-mutiny-d5bb8f5ba03ffe35a29205f44bec25d9 The west will make sure there are no surprises from the north with watchful eyes.

ISW July 14 Report: Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than breaking it up but seeks to separate Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin from Wagner leadership and forces. Belarusian government and independent sources confirmed on July 14 that Wagner Group instructors previously deployed in Africa previously arrived at training grounds in Belarus. Wagner troops moving to (some from Africa contrary to popular thinking) Belarus for housing/training. https://www.aol.com/ukraine-russia-war-live-putin-092330923.html Although discounted right after the coup, could small parties of Wagners probe north of Kiev with the sole mission to upset/distract UA offensive operations in the South? It would appear to be a better use of their talents rather than sticking them in static trenches. Even to the point of infiltrating small Wagner units to wreak havoc then fall back. This would put Belarus in a bad position, so this line of operations is not likely. This sounds more like getting Wagner out of the way for a while, feeding them, keeping them busy and readying them as some sort of reserve.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1791208/Russia-TV-hack-Ukraine-war-latest Massive hack of Russian TV? Annoying web site, but posted anyway.

Just read South Korea has retired some as well. Not sure how modernized. IDF still uses them? Bit more from Wiki: December 2022, Ukraine started to use the system to defend against the Russian invasion. Ukraine received its first HAWK missile systems from Spain on 3 December, 2022.[29] Spain pledged a total of six launchers to Ukraine, with the United States to provide refurbished missiles. [30][31][32] Western analysts put its accuracy at 85% chance of hitting a target.[29]

Decoys? MALD is around 400K per missile. These have to be less. Maybe they can broadcast a signature like the storm shadow and really mess with the RA operators. However, looks like they have a third of the range or so.

A People's cruise missile; a flying Volkswagen. Now we just have get Putin in front of the Peoples Court. If the thing has a battlefield benefit, maybe they can farm production out. I remember back in the early 90's the radio controlled a/c group I belonged to was thinking off the cuff about placing charges on larger model and if they could be used a terror weapons. Little did we know how things would evolve.

ISW July 12: The aim of preventing NATO expansion and, indeed, rolling back earlier rounds of NATO expansion and pushing NATO back from Russia’s borders was one of the Kremlin’s stated demands before the invasion. The Kremlin has repeated this aim continually throughout the war. The lack of general outcry within the Russian information space regarding developments at the NATO summit, as well as Finland’s NATO accession and Turkey’s agreement to forward Sweden’s accession protocol, likely indicates that the Kremlin has internalized these defeats and desires to avoid dwelling on them. Many Russian gains sources are reporting on the NATO summit in a dispassionate and muted manner that is not commensurate with the wider defeat that the summit actually represents for Russia’s pre-war aims. On the flip side, this represents a wider victory for NATO in geostrategic terms. Of course at a horrible cost. Does anyone think the west will rest on its laurels believing the tactical and operational situation on the ground is just fine to hold on to those geostrategic gains? Meaning the status quo is OK with western political and business leadership while they coax the war toward rounds of negotiations. Negotiations at first for public consumption only.

That's anyone's guess tonight. The big question is if Prig will have a paramilitary operating in Ukraine and, if so, the timing. I don't think he is going away. Perhaps Wagner re-surfaces leaner and meaner.

Member of the Ukrainian Parliament is reporting and it was picked up by the Post: Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsokov died Monday when a barrage of cruise missiles obliterated the Dune Hotel in Berdiansk in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, where Russian military commanders had been quartered. “The British ‘Storm Shadow’ came to visit accurately,” he commented, referring to the long-range cruise missiles jointly developed by the UK and France that were supplied to Ukraine in May.

That's the point. So if that guy is correct, Prig wasn't forcibly de-fanged. He was neutered by agreement with Putin. He'll be back a "re-made man".

What will he be fighting with as a separate force? Just small arms?