Lethaface

Putin 'rose' to power after the disastrous 1st Chechen war, cementing his position with the 'successful' 2nd Chechen war. Ironically he is setting up a likewise 'opportunity' for someone else to replace him in similar fashion. As a 'progressive' optimist in theory (although probably somewhat pragmatic realist in practice/when necessary) I'm not too optimistic about a 'color revolution' happening in Russia anytime soon for the reasons you have, imo, nicely described.

I'd say he is 'on the money'. People were bitching Germany before and even demonstrations held about free the leopard, but so far the only thing countries are doing is cleaning out some olde stuff from the basement. And not even in numbers. Who else is sending part of their actually modern (2A6/2A5/2PL/2A6E, etc), operational, fleet? Anyone? Ok, Portugal supposedly. Regarding 3%, does Germany have 467 operational Leo2A6 (14/0,03)? PS My country is also in the guilty corner imo.

If true and Russia hasn't secretly found a way to effectively target Ukraine's AD using missile attacks, I'd suspect a lot of shot down airplanes. Let's hope UKR AD has enough missiles and operational assets for a large saturation strike by missiles and planes.

"Later, Coyote is in a playful mood. “What we sometimes also do,” he tells me, “is drop dildos from the drones, just to show them the contempt we have for them. Also, it’s a taste of what’s coming to them — how we’re going to **** them.” I ask what happens if they hit a Russian soldier on the head. Everyone laughs. Coyote, still looking mischievous, describes how they sometimes find lists of “heroic deaths” written on the walls of Russian positions they capture. “You know, they have a photo of the guy and under it ‘Vlad was killed by a Bayraktar’ and so on…. Imagine: ‘Here lies Sergei — he was killed by a massive cock.’”

From what I've seen of Bakhmut area it would definitely surprise me if the casualties are comparable. But compared to Mariupol there are various other factors. One of which is why Mariupol was even able to hold so long (azovstal fortress). Another is the scale, intensity and duration of the fighting. If the scale is larger, the total number of casualties will also be higher even if conditions are more favorable compared to a smaller battle. Russia is throwing very large numbers into the fray everyday. Same goes for intensity / duration. The effectiveness of enemy also gets a vote. I think we are all concerned that their penal unit continuous infiltration wave tactics combined with drone adjusted artillery etc is costing heavier toll on Ukrainian defenders compared to previous battles. Especially compared to the columns of Russian AFVs eager to rush into the tank turret throwing competition. Although it seems new season for that has opened as well last few days. Ultimately at least I don't know how bad the situation is. Ukr high command will by no means be perfect but has until now shown that they seem to know what they are doing rather well. Perhaps at high cost but even after 5months, Russia still doesn't have it's victory in Bakhmut. In the meantime Prigozhin the supposed prison rooster has risen and fell from grace. Maybe UKR high command looks at it from strategic POV? Bakhmut failing would sure cause a big stirrup among certain Russians I'd say.

That's as good as a guess as any. The main point imo, is that now the discussion is passé. Ukraine was not in NATO but still Russia attacked. Saying that Russia wouldn't have attacked if Ukraine wouldn't be in NATO is factually wrong since about a year. In all fairness I personally wasn't really jumping for Ukraine to get into NATO either after Maidan. Whatever one thinks of Maidan (imo it seems to have brought some very tangible improvements for Ukrainians living in Ukraine), it wasn't a usual change of power so to say. Anyway a quick move to get UKR into NATO just after the Russian marionet Yanukovich fled the country, that would be tempting the bear I'd say. But at least to nobody around at the time on this forum it should have come as a surprise Russia might start a war because of Crimea, the naval base, etc etc. They did. Over time and past 2014 I personally felt more and more that a move into NATO could help prevent a larger war erupting, but given the situation in Donbass and Crimea it was not really realistic? Some think tanks will definitely be studying these events to see if they can come up with turning points where we might have changed outcomes. But that will always be hindsight after the fact. Anyway anyone who was thinking that Ukraine in NATO might cause a war, has now have their thinking updated because the war already erupted :). Maybe not the NATO/Russian hot war but NATO countries are involved in this one too.

The missile attacks this afternoon seemed to be mostly neutralized from the news reports. Is that true? I didn't see any reports of more missile attacks going on after. Was this the opening of 'Gerasimov' offensive? Just curious what you think.

Of course it is different. Maybe I just don't like to say to someone from Ukraine that casualties might be very high and continue to be like that for some time. But that doesn't mean you're losing the war. At least for whatever my 0,02ct are worth

But not necessarily fair or just. While this is going on about 1000km (my guess) to the south of all the destruction in Ukraine now 25000 people died in an earthquake. We are still humans, such numbers of death are presented as statistics but nobody can imagine the loss of life of all these people individually in a mentally healthy way. Sometimes it can be good to step away a bit from studying all the death and destruction, if you are able at least. I sure need to.

Maybe for the best to not think about it too much . I don't know what is true but the truth might not be 'nice'.

Even if it would be a 1:1 ratio over all of Bakhmut the last 5 months (which I seriously doubt), that still doesn't mean Ukraine will be losing the war. Wars are hell and costly especially WW1 style. I'm not so pessimistic. Of course it is easy to talk from safe chair. FWIW there is quite some support going on, although obviously when you are in the 'hard place' it can never be (fast) enough

Sure looks like Stalingrad / Hiroshima 2023. I guess it is difficult to fathom the level of destruction going on.

Leo2 was in service though in the timeframe, so we should see that if there will be another module with Germany. Even NL saw first deliveries mid 1981.

I came across this as well. He also said "U cannot even imagine (even I) the amount of destroyed Russia armour from Krasnogorivka to Kamianka. Approximately like 3 brigades" If that's correct, there will be more (good) news I would guess.

Back to Ukraine

You were talking about rifts in the EU/NATO because of UA and how DE would probably go it's own way with FR and IT hiding behind it avec plaisir. And how DE supposedly 'pressuring' US into delivering tanks is a reason for PL to order 500 HIMARS. And that DE is not even a weak ally. I find that discussion worthy too. I'm not German either, although one of my great grandmothers came from Konigsberg. I have one memory of her when I was four years old and we got into the door of the place where she lived (I guess) and she started swearing. It made an impression, here is a grandmother who says words I can't say lol. She was already demented I understood later. I don't 'identify' as German though . Anyway I don't mind discussion at all, but the simple fact that Germany was against Ukraine entering NATO before this war erupted is hardly a reason to distrust Germany's loyalty in defense pacts. Perhaps it 'helps' that the armed forces of my country are literally integrated into the German armed forces.

I like the phrase, though I'm no part in the Morocco - Spain feud. But I do know those enclaves are really small, like 10-20 sq KM per enclave, mostly urban terrain. Not really tank brigade terrain.

All I know is that @BletchleyGeek is actually also Spanish. But I don't think stuffing a couple of hundred of Leo2s in those small enclaves is going to help stop Morocco from taking those area's if they really want to start a war about m, which I don't think they want.

The treaty doesn't differentiate for 'own soil' or not (AFAIK, I haven't fully read it), probably for the wise. It was also before the Ukraine war so they could hardly keep it into account ;-). Agreed to leave the subject though. good weekend

I don't think the main reason for the treaty is about the effect against combatants. The issue is that the main victims of anti personnel mines are non-combatants, years after the wars in which they were placed were over.

I think I'm onto something here.

Pray to the CM gods, or order reverse if this moment happens during the command phase (or if playing RT). Often the vehicles will reverse automatically to reload, I think tied to whether there are other enemies in view or not.

PS @Maciej Zwolinski it's not a western thing, your country seems to be infiltrated by Russian agents as well lol https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/ottawasigs

LoL not everything you fail to grasp is an achievement by Russian agents or a 'Western thing'. What's not to understand, because of these things and the horrible deaths people decided it would be better to not use them ever again and tried to get that into a treaty. Whether you or I agree with the sentiment is another question. Yes there are some groups who got money from Russia, knowingly or not. But not all 'humanitarian groups' are Russian proxies. Maybe give me some of the stuff you smoke There's 106 nuclear reactors in the EU. I for one think Nuclear energy should be part of the mix. But we are dwelling off.

https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/faq/mines-fac-cartagena-021109.htm#:~:text=What is an anti-personnel,civilian man%2C woman or child. I guess because no matter the intent, a mine will not make a difference between a child stepping on it vs an enemy combatant. AP mines are meant to maim and are rather good at their job. Angola, Cambodja, experiences like those have lead to the sentiment. Edit: for Angola in 1995 there were 70.000 civilians killed (and as much wounded) from mines after the war ended. 20 years after the war still 20 people died on a daily basis because of the mines.