Lethaface

FWIW Dutch think tanks about the new offensive: 'They think Bakhmut will fall in a couple of weeks, but that Ukraine is turning it into a sort of Mariupol. But they don't think the Russians can do much more than that, Donetsk is too large. Maybe some feint attacks around Zaporizja, while the main goals will be Slovjanks and Kramatorsk. Which would be a big loss for Ukraine. But they expect Russia's attack to culminate in an Ukrainian offensive, when the Russian attacking troops have lost most of their combat power. Just like in August.' https://nos.nl/artikel/2463156-nieuw-russisch-offensief-in-oekraine-lijkt-begonnen-ze-duwen-op-alle-fronten While in general these think tanks are of decent to good quality (depends on the subject/person), they were mostly wrong about the war in the beginning like the other think tanks. Although they have been getting informed better and better since mid 2022.

We all have similar problems. Not even that much % of votes would have mean the Le Pen, Wilders or other 'bright lights' would be in power now.

I hope so, cooperating towards the common goal seems key at least. If all the bickering would be maskirovka to have the Russians think we are still the same while silently setting up a vast support network / defense cooperation that would be a great ploy. I know some people here who have the opinion that's happening on a significant scale, but I'm not so sure about that.

I think it's a bit in the middle; I do know that if I was Ukrainian in a trench to be overran by Russians I'd have no qualms at all about AP mining the heck of it. If HQ worries about it they can order an artillery strike on it tomorrow and call it 'command detonation'. However how serious do we take ourselves if our policy makers go 'boooh evil' when side X does it, while keeping their mouth shut when side Y does it because we like them better? I don't know how effective mining large swaths of land are though. They probably get bypassed and may in the future well be an obstacle for your own troops or people.

Perhaps JasonC is who you are referring to?

Understood And indeed Orban is beyond a problem. He / his clique already have consolidated (in)direct ownership of virtually all Hungarian media. That's not unlike how Putin consolidated his power. Luckily there are plenty of Hungarians seeing the danger, but unfortunately they are too divided and Orban has mastered the bread & games to get enough votes to stay in power. Obviously helped by his control of the media. On the whole I'm more positive about EU compared to a year ago. Perhaps Ukraine and Ukrainians can also help the unity and show/remind us about the real/big issues and what are more side issues. My glass is usually half full though (instead of half empty), I prefer it that way.

Yeah, there's the political way of formulating reasons and the real reason. She said NL policy would like to deliver, but under the lease contract the German government decided that isn't allowed and that it was a military decision. Sending them basically would mean the 1. Panzer Division will lose one of it's tank battalions and with many of the other formations already posted towards the East, it would undermine/endanger (whatever) the ability to train. I read some about that today but can't find the link anymore. Imo the army said no we need these tanks, probably both the Dutch and the German army. To be honest that's what I expected to begin with, before our government was talking about thinking of buying the leased tanks and sending them off.

I agree. Plus culturally we (in Europe) are more alike when we realize probably. One only needs to travel the world to find out. And @Huba there is bigotry / xenophobia everywhere. I'm sure there is as much contempt and bigotry going both sides. While there are certainly people here looking down on Eastern Europeans, there are much more looking down at Arabs and Africans. It's all dumb xenophobia, usually on the side of people who face hardships and need a scapegoat (where did we see that before). But fortunately there are still more people, not always as vocal, who don't look down on other people because of things they have no control. And there is actually quite some warm memories about Polish troops in quite some parts of our country. In this thread I've saw more generalizations regarding Western Europeans then Eastern Europeans fwiw. Maybe because I'm western european? I usually don't really care much about generalizations though, because they're of limited value. And while I don't agree with the wording Aragorn used, the Polish government has indeed taken steps to abolish the autonomy of the courts (and thus trias politicas) and 'some issues' about EU legislation which basically amount to a cancellation / breach of contract. I don't want to mention gaming the EU system, many countries are into that. Recently your government is talking a lot about other countries. I'm not a fan of that tbh. But what goes around comes around.

Every country needs a sufficient self defense. Show me a country that doesn't put it's own interest forward. Anyway I don't know but from some of your posts I get a hint of hostility about 'west Europe' and 'east Europe'. If we start about political elites creating a rift in Europe before the war, well I could point to some countries in the East as well. Including your own. But imo the war has caused some paradigmas to shift, mainly the view on Russia. It's time for Europe / EU to stop bickering about perceived past grievances and look ahead. Get over Germany would be my advise. If we keep pointing the finger at eachother 'look he was wrong, I'm merely saying so not pointing the finger' how are you expecting any successful cooperation?

I dont get how you go from A to B.

**** Scholz, he isn't going to decide 'the future'. That I would be willing to bet on.

No more sledgehammers?

I even specifically said 'current hot war'. I know about the 2014 war lol. The current war is rather different compared to the 2014 one. There might be a 'third battle' as you call it. Russia can frame either gaining or losing Crimea as a casus belli for another war, that's what you don't seem to see.

Zelensky was in Brussel today, doing the parade with the officials ;-). Anyway I think the more interesting question is whether negotiations can be even started up in a meaningful way after most of the shooting stops. There is already a LOT of investment in Ukraine, economically / militarily / politically from EU and most countries in EU, DE as well. I don't see DE going alone against the grain with regards to security guarantees for Ukraine when/if that issue gets on the table. Neither France. Why support now and abandon when the 'good times' are there? If a Le Pen rises to power, perhaps. At the same time I'm not saying that full membership formalities will go very speedy. But indeed some kind of security guarantee will need to be made after hostilities cease and negotiations start. Full NATO membership on day 1 isn't the only way.

It is rather finger pointy though. How much of it is perception on the observer and how much is factual? Various countries / people which were against Ukraine joining NATO did that because they thought it would prevent a war. Times have changed, although probably some people will still think that way. Joining EU would also give security guarantees. Anyway my outlook is not so negative, nor is my perception about certain countries. All EU countries have their issues (and non EU).

RU already had Crimea before the current hot war erupted. Imo the probabilities of a new war on the horizon aren't necessarily decided by the control of Crimea at the end of the current hostilities. There might be some scenario's in which it will be, but there are also scenario's in which it won't. Factually Russia being forced back to their January 2022 borders would mean that the whole war didn't give them any inch of terrain. How is that a win?

That's not what he said, I think this spiral is going nowhere. Nobody posting here is pro-Putin, they left long time ago. Accusing each other of being on the wrong side of history is pointless and unnecessary divisive. Let's not do the work of RU propaganda for them

Now in motion picture with appropriate music for a change.

Yes the PzFaust 100 is actually in CM (late war). There was also the PzFaust 150 but AFAIK that only saw very limited service if any.

Yes, both from d66 which is the 2nd largest party in the current coalition. The largest is VVD (party of the prime minister), 3rd and 4th are CDA and CU. However members of parliament are free to propose motions that are not necessarily supported by the government, even if their own party is in the coalition. But that's not really a usual thing. Edit to add: Our minister of foreign affairs Hoekstra (CDA) was the one who recently said that we would look into any Ukrainian request for F-16s with an 'open mind'. So I guess the government is already on board with the idea.

I start to wonder whether our parliamentarians are reading this thread lol.

Seems that the lack of 'developments' is changing last few days.

It is indeed. But the 'barrier troops' aren't invulnerable or inexhaustive; they might be required for manning the front themselves sooner. And somewhere there is a threshold where troops rather take their chances with the barrier troops / legal issues, compared to remaining in their positions. Where exactly that threshold is, well I guess nobody knows.

Read about that yesterday, there are taps/recordings of those involved saying that there is one person who can give the clearance but that that person is in France. Putin was at that time in France for the D-Day memorials. Not long after the BUK was delivered. Afaik that is basically the premise for the 'strong indications'. Added to that the fact that Putin was/is inviolable as the president of the country, so there's not much to do even if they could 100% prove he personally signed the BUK off.

The 'average' soldier probably doesn't exist, but I think it's fair to conclude that they aren't living in the stone age and also read telegram/millbloggers and phone home / friends. The war until now has caused quite the bit of stirrups among the TV propagandists, millbloggers, etc. More setbacks = more outcry. Some of that will reach the troops. They will probably indeed not know what we know, but might know more about what's going on at their position/part of the front. And I can't really fathom they won't know about Kiev, Kharkov, Kherson etc. Maybe not all details, but that's not necessary I'd say. When all your operations are failing while the enemies operations are succeeding, only the most foolhardy people will keep believing in the cause indefinitely. I don't think the average mobik or even contractniki is in it to die for special operation. Also, early on in ww2 the USSR army was rapidly disintegrating. If they weren't fighting for their own country, with Moscow virtually in range of German artillery (+ Leningrad under siege, Kiev/Minsk fallen, etc), I doubt we would have seen the same stubborn resistance on the part of the USSR soldiers. But indeed, we don't have crystal balls unfortunately. It will happen when it will happen.