poesel

IIRC the US explicitly allowed the UA to fire into Russia versus military targets as retribution to attacks. 
I guess this will be another ‘cook the frog’ thing. Russia fires from their land, Ukraine fires back and soon it will be normal that the war is also on the Russian side. It’s unclear, what Russia hopes to gain here (as usual).

IIRC the US explicitly allowed the UA to fire into Russia versus military targets as retribution to attacks. 
I guess this will be another ‘cook the frog’ thing. Russia fires from their land, Ukraine fires back and soon it will be normal that the war is also on the Russian side. It’s unclear, what Russia hopes to gain here (as usual).

I think from the Russian perspective, it's pretty simple. Taking Severodonetsk and Lysychansk completes the political objective of "liberating" the entire "Luhansk People's Republic". With the entire Oblast now taken, they can move towards setting up administrations, hold elections or whatever else they might want to do with it.

IIRC you already said that in the past, but that doesn't make it true. Speaking for Germany, the public has accepted that Russian gas will be gone sooner or later. Preferably later, because the switchover will take time and the hurt will be a bit less if we have more (time).
But it is an accepted fact that Russian gas has no future here. The war has accelerated many things energy wise, but it has not changed the direction of it.
The time necessary to re-normalize the relations to Russia is much bigger than the time necessary to switch around our energy sector (this year for Russian oil, 2-3 years for Russian gas (or whenever they cut us off - that is the expensive part)).
Apart from gas & oil, Russia is not very important for us economically. For some the damage is big, but as a whole it doesn't matter much. There is no political interest to 'scream for peace' apart from the usual useful idiots.

This has a nice picture of Russian air defence around Crimea. Later on in the thread he discusses that the abilities seem to be theoretical as most Russian stuff.

This has a nice picture of Russian air defence around Crimea. Later on in the thread he discusses that the abilities seem to be theoretical as most Russian stuff.

Two of the three parties (social democrats (SPD) & greens) are historical roots in pacifism. The SPD was for example the only party to vote against Hitler as that was still possible. The greens were even founded out of the pacifist movement. The greens have surprisingly adapted to the new situation very fast and with negligible internal rumbling.
The SPD has however a harder time. Make that 50 instead of your mentioned 20 years of investment in ‘Ostpolitik’. I said it before: from the outside it looks like glacial speed but from the inside its lightning. Parts of that party are still literally shell shocked.
The economic impact is bad but meanwhile an accepted fact (see my last post)
If Russia would attack a NATO state freighter it wouldn’t necessarily mean instant WW3. NATO could for instance declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine & the Black Sea.
More difficult are the more ‘grey’ problems like Russia wanting to stop the freighter for an ‘inspection’. Does it stop or is that piracy? What happens when during that action one ship rams the other? Will the freighter be escorted by, say, a Turkish warship?

Two of the three parties (social democrats (SPD) & greens) are historical roots in pacifism. The SPD was for example the only party to vote against Hitler as that was still possible. The greens were even founded out of the pacifist movement. The greens have surprisingly adapted to the new situation very fast and with negligible internal rumbling.
The SPD has however a harder time. Make that 50 instead of your mentioned 20 years of investment in ‘Ostpolitik’. I said it before: from the outside it looks like glacial speed but from the inside its lightning. Parts of that party are still literally shell shocked.
The economic impact is bad but meanwhile an accepted fact (see my last post)
If Russia would attack a NATO state freighter it wouldn’t necessarily mean instant WW3. NATO could for instance declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine & the Black Sea.
More difficult are the more ‘grey’ problems like Russia wanting to stop the freighter for an ‘inspection’. Does it stop or is that piracy? What happens when during that action one ship rams the other? Will the freighter be escorted by, say, a Turkish warship?

Two of the three parties (social democrats (SPD) & greens) are historical roots in pacifism. The SPD was for example the only party to vote against Hitler as that was still possible. The greens were even founded out of the pacifist movement. The greens have surprisingly adapted to the new situation very fast and with negligible internal rumbling.
The SPD has however a harder time. Make that 50 instead of your mentioned 20 years of investment in ‘Ostpolitik’. I said it before: from the outside it looks like glacial speed but from the inside its lightning. Parts of that party are still literally shell shocked.
The economic impact is bad but meanwhile an accepted fact (see my last post)
If Russia would attack a NATO state freighter it wouldn’t necessarily mean instant WW3. NATO could for instance declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine & the Black Sea.
More difficult are the more ‘grey’ problems like Russia wanting to stop the freighter for an ‘inspection’. Does it stop or is that piracy? What happens when during that action one ship rams the other? Will the freighter be escorted by, say, a Turkish warship?

IIRC you already said that in the past, but that doesn't make it true. Speaking for Germany, the public has accepted that Russian gas will be gone sooner or later. Preferably later, because the switchover will take time and the hurt will be a bit less if we have more (time).
But it is an accepted fact that Russian gas has no future here. The war has accelerated many things energy wise, but it has not changed the direction of it.
The time necessary to re-normalize the relations to Russia is much bigger than the time necessary to switch around our energy sector (this year for Russian oil, 2-3 years for Russian gas (or whenever they cut us off - that is the expensive part)).
Apart from gas & oil, Russia is not very important for us economically. For some the damage is big, but as a whole it doesn't matter much. There is no political interest to 'scream for peace' apart from the usual useful idiots.

IIRC you already said that in the past, but that doesn't make it true. Speaking for Germany, the public has accepted that Russian gas will be gone sooner or later. Preferably later, because the switchover will take time and the hurt will be a bit less if we have more (time).
But it is an accepted fact that Russian gas has no future here. The war has accelerated many things energy wise, but it has not changed the direction of it.
The time necessary to re-normalize the relations to Russia is much bigger than the time necessary to switch around our energy sector (this year for Russian oil, 2-3 years for Russian gas (or whenever they cut us off - that is the expensive part)).
Apart from gas & oil, Russia is not very important for us economically. For some the damage is big, but as a whole it doesn't matter much. There is no political interest to 'scream for peace' apart from the usual useful idiots.

IIRC you already said that in the past, but that doesn't make it true. Speaking for Germany, the public has accepted that Russian gas will be gone sooner or later. Preferably later, because the switchover will take time and the hurt will be a bit less if we have more (time).
But it is an accepted fact that Russian gas has no future here. The war has accelerated many things energy wise, but it has not changed the direction of it.
The time necessary to re-normalize the relations to Russia is much bigger than the time necessary to switch around our energy sector (this year for Russian oil, 2-3 years for Russian gas (or whenever they cut us off - that is the expensive part)).
Apart from gas & oil, Russia is not very important for us economically. For some the damage is big, but as a whole it doesn't matter much. There is no political interest to 'scream for peace' apart from the usual useful idiots.

And one reason Tsingtao is such good beer is because the brewery was founded by Germans. 

This - it was a very big mistake not to march troops through Germany and have a parade in Berlin. That would have shown have shown everyone who had won and who had lost. After the war nationalists came up with the idea of ‘Dolchstoßlegende’ - that the army never lost in the field and were betrayed by the social democrats who signed Versailles. That blemished democracy in the public view right from the beginning.
But back to Russia: there will not be a march of any foreign troops on Moscow because of nukes. That is pretty obvious. With the firm grip of the state on media the public wont accept a Russian loss of the war because nobody will tell them in first place.
So until change comes from within, nothing will change in Russia.
Do the sanctions help with change? Yes. Why? Consider the alternative where there are no sanctions. That will surely not create change.
Can we create ‘directed’ sanctions that will lead to a desired (by the West) effect? I doubt that. Whatever will break that thing will be a random event that nobody thought of. We just need to make sure that there are many of those events until one ‘clicks’.

Also lost were Qingdao (the area east of Beijing) and the Solomons (both to Japan). Imagine if those two would have still been German at the beginning of WWII. Interesting what if.  

This - it was a very big mistake not to march troops through Germany and have a parade in Berlin. That would have shown have shown everyone who had won and who had lost. After the war nationalists came up with the idea of ‘Dolchstoßlegende’ - that the army never lost in the field and were betrayed by the social democrats who signed Versailles. That blemished democracy in the public view right from the beginning.
But back to Russia: there will not be a march of any foreign troops on Moscow because of nukes. That is pretty obvious. With the firm grip of the state on media the public wont accept a Russian loss of the war because nobody will tell them in first place.
So until change comes from within, nothing will change in Russia.
Do the sanctions help with change? Yes. Why? Consider the alternative where there are no sanctions. That will surely not create change.
Can we create ‘directed’ sanctions that will lead to a desired (by the West) effect? I doubt that. Whatever will break that thing will be a random event that nobody thought of. We just need to make sure that there are many of those events until one ‘clicks’.

This - it was a very big mistake not to march troops through Germany and have a parade in Berlin. That would have shown have shown everyone who had won and who had lost. After the war nationalists came up with the idea of ‘Dolchstoßlegende’ - that the army never lost in the field and were betrayed by the social democrats who signed Versailles. That blemished democracy in the public view right from the beginning.
But back to Russia: there will not be a march of any foreign troops on Moscow because of nukes. That is pretty obvious. With the firm grip of the state on media the public wont accept a Russian loss of the war because nobody will tell them in first place.
So until change comes from within, nothing will change in Russia.
Do the sanctions help with change? Yes. Why? Consider the alternative where there are no sanctions. That will surely not create change.
Can we create ‘directed’ sanctions that will lead to a desired (by the West) effect? I doubt that. Whatever will break that thing will be a random event that nobody thought of. We just need to make sure that there are many of those events until one ‘clicks’.

I don‘t want to disagree with you but I don‘t think that that is completely right.
I‘d like to take post-WWII Germany as an example how you can convert a fascist country into a working democracy. That was not Germany fixing Germany - at least not in the beginning. It was a decisively lost war, no questions open. Then there were trials which judged the most obvious criminals and especially those who ‚just followed orders‘.
After that, something happened what many probably wouldn‘t like to happen in Russia: there is a country to run and you need people for that. If every German who deserved it would have been hung or imprisoned, the country would have collapsed. So those got away because a functioning Germany was needed against the Soviets.
But: from then on it was impossible to publicly state nazi ideas so a new generation without those ideas could be raised. The old thinking died when the people who had them died.
So, Russia can fix itself but only after some outside help makes this process possible.

There were only 14 years between the Kaiser and the 3rd Reich. Not much to build a tradition on. Also the Weimar Republic was seen as a failure because of the economy which led to a view that democracy itself was a failure and wouldn‘t work in Germany.
Yeah, but that is only the first step. Long term you want a stable, democratic Russia or whatever will be in its place. Living next door to barbarians will eventually have them at your gates.
It will be a mayor effort to normalise relations with Russia. I doubt any of us will live to see it.

Yes, didn’t sleep through history classes.
But your are right. Russia ‘22 isn’t Germany ‘45. Each country has its own history. But I took it as an example that a) a country can be ‘fixed’ and, b) you might need external help for that.
If Twitter had existed in ‘45 the posts by German nationalists wouldn’t have looked much different from Russias today (Hitler did everything wrong, we just need to do x, bla bla…).
So I don’t agree that the existence of those kind of postings make Russia unfixable per se. With what I agree is the necessity of Russia loosing this war very clearly and the following dissolution of the federation. If Russia stays in its current form nothing will happen for a very long time.

Yes, didn’t sleep through history classes.
But your are right. Russia ‘22 isn’t Germany ‘45. Each country has its own history. But I took it as an example that a) a country can be ‘fixed’ and, b) you might need external help for that.
If Twitter had existed in ‘45 the posts by German nationalists wouldn’t have looked much different from Russias today (Hitler did everything wrong, we just need to do x, bla bla…).
So I don’t agree that the existence of those kind of postings make Russia unfixable per se. With what I agree is the necessity of Russia loosing this war very clearly and the following dissolution of the federation. If Russia stays in its current form nothing will happen for a very long time.

Yes, didn’t sleep through history classes.
But your are right. Russia ‘22 isn’t Germany ‘45. Each country has its own history. But I took it as an example that a) a country can be ‘fixed’ and, b) you might need external help for that.
If Twitter had existed in ‘45 the posts by German nationalists wouldn’t have looked much different from Russias today (Hitler did everything wrong, we just need to do x, bla bla…).
So I don’t agree that the existence of those kind of postings make Russia unfixable per se. With what I agree is the necessity of Russia loosing this war very clearly and the following dissolution of the federation. If Russia stays in its current form nothing will happen for a very long time.

F**k Putin all the way to hell the effing coward.
I can take a vacation for saying this but I had to get it off my chest.

@Battlefront.com
Here is some recommendations from UKR frontline soldier for your collection
ATTENTION TO ALL, WHO FIRST TIME COMES TO EASTERN FRONT
1. Enemy has significant advantage in aviation and artillery.
2. There are no more stupid conscripts, but really trainned murderers, whick know own work
3. Our positions have been betraying by locals and drones ajust fire
4. Vehicles are target #1
RECOMMENDAIONS FOR DOGFACE
1. Dig in deep, but never wide.
2. Dig in in the places with additional protection (tree) or with obstacles for enemy artillery (hill,railwau embarkment)
3. Dig several positions, join its after in the trench (if enemy allow you to do this)
4. Do not concentrate many people in one shelter - no more 2-3
5. For rest and cover to dig a grave. Yes, a grave with steps (on the photo) for two. While the first on position, the second rests in the grave, then change.
6. Evacuation point must be maximally hidden, to make a pathway and the hole for aid. In the hole only combat medic have to work, you shouldn't be there.
7. Do not bring with you neither too much ammunitions nor any other supply - its betrays you. Get out the trash - bury even cigarette butts.
8. Prepare good off-road jeep, take away all superflous, take away lights and give NV device to the driver. Let he stays in 5 km from your positions. This will save most of your WIAs.
9. Ammunition and supply delivers when jeep drives to take WIAs or if you have a need in resupply. Two days reserve of ammunition and supply for comany have to be always near the jeep. 
10. BMPs and BTRs are also have to be in the rear, dug in deeply and disguished or hidden. They drive to the battle only and dont's carry people! Your trucks you can shot out yourself, thus will be less victims. But better hand over its to artillerists. 
11. Comms, steady encriptes comms and interaction with tanks and artillery. Infantry finds targets, recons ajust arty with drones, arty fires. But artillerists are people too and they also primary target for the enemy. They will not stand-by continuously and they also have a limit of ammunition and supply. 
12. Do not deploy on infantry positions ATGMs or MANPADs. Deployits aside or behind, but never on positions. If this stuff works at least once, your position will grounded.  
13. Most important!!!! The time for supply it's twilight (dawn or dusk). Safe time you will understand yourself.  And do this with jeeps with engine volume no more 2,5 l
14. Despite on written above, the war is dictating own rules. At this war the best are speed and mobility. And remember - they don't know how much of you, until you expose yourself. And during this time eliminate as more of orcs as possible, while they will be probe. Best way - to shot, when you see the enemy, and not hear his bullets. In this way they check your nerves. When the come close, try to kill as more as possible in order they will not call or adjust own artillery, because without accurate adjustment their arty is skew and only something random can hit your positin.   
 
The "grave with steps" for R&R
 

German fatigues will bestow +10 on the engineering skills of the wearer.