rocketman

I'll pile on. My sense is the West made China over the last 20 years, the West can unmake (de-couple from) China over the next 20. 
Thank God for President Xi.
If it weren't for him revealing the true face of China under the CCP, the West might have sleep walked into a 2040 Chinese world order. We should all thank Xi for the brutal crackdown in Hong Kong, the brutal forced assimilation of the uyghurs, zero COVID policy supply chain disruptions, crippling Belt and Suspenders loans, ignoring the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague 2016 ruling, building up the Chinese navy, modernizing the PLA, continued South China Sea aggression, constant military harassment of Taiwan, and stifling China's business elites, particularly the tech titans, etc.
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/measuring-us-chinas-conscious-decoupling-2023-11-16/
 

This is fabulously wrong headed.
"Somehow", those effete slow liberal democracies managed to win WWII, Korea, Cold War, Gulf War, etc against those superlative and efficient autocracies and dictatorships.

🤣  yep any day now!

No, this is way more complex than you make it look here. There are a lot of things we don't like about US politics and things related to that (note: most of us actually like the country itself). Put wars like Vietnam and Iraq '03 right on top of that list. We also don't like US-style capitalism and we certainly don't like Mr. Trump. But if anything this is because of "the strength of the United States". Noone doubts US strength.
This all is basically the beef the more left leaning (as opposed to the far left who still see historical ties with Russia) people have with the US.
The recent trend towards more Russia-friendly parties has more or less nothing to do with this. Those are populist parties who are usually more leaning towards authoritarianism and therefore admire Putin (but also Trump... who... also admires Putin). What they like is the money they received from Russia. How much real friendship and loyalty that bought Putin remains to be seen (I'd say none, they will drop him like a hot potatoe if there is no more to gain). But those parties usually get elected because of all the things people don't like about "the established parties", not (or not that much) because they like Putin. They like Putin as a symbol, as the underdog who puts the powers that be into their place. But not really the person Putin or Russia.
Then of course we fear Trump or whomever his spiritual successor might be. Not because we doubt US strength but because we fear unchecked US strength. We don't like Russia or China because of that but we see the necessity to get along with them.

Quite unfortunate. Faulty insulation is one of the most common causes of accidental electric fires. 
 

A little bit of somewhat positive news:
230 Ukrainian prisoners of war coming home, in exchange for 248 Russians.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67872417

14th separate UAV regiment destroyed for several days already fifth Russian "Buk" system.
This one was destroyed on the waste heap of "Kuibyshevskaya" coal mine on westerm outskirt of Donetsk.
 

https://www.thefewgoodmen.com/tsd3/combat-mission-battle-for-normandy/cm-battle-for-normandy-campaigns/the-road-to-montebourg-revised-for-v4-0/
Don't worry, this won't overwrite or otherwise delete the original campaign that came on the disk. IIt's a completely different file. This is substantially different from the vanilla campaign and the number of changes made is huge but the most important one to note is that you will need both the Market Garden module and the Vehicle Pack to play this.
 
Other important highlights are that the 2/8 INF core units are now mostly Green with High morale which means you'll need to manage them more carefully in a firefight.
All-new AI plans using triggers and most of the tricks that came with later versions of the game.
Flamethrowers are included in some missions.
Some maps have been revised, most notably the map for Turnbull's Stand which veterans of the original campaign will probably notice quite quickly.
A 'new' mission has been added although those of you who found and played the earlier revised version that was uploaded to BFC's old Scenario Depot will recognise it. The campaign has a prelude phase consisting of the new mission and then the old campaign opener Beau Guillot. You should notice quite a few changes made to that mission as well - some extra help to make up for the drop in experience.
There is air support in quite a few missions now and less artillery, at least the bigger guns anyway.
 
Anyway, let's post this and then I'll see what needs to be 'fixed' or not in good time. This is an old campaign so i'm not expecting a ton of feedback for it for quite a while but let me know and I'll fix things. Now I'm taking a break from CMBN. I haven't quite decided what comes next - finishing Hasrabit or a new version of Gung Ho! for the German forces. Later, I'll get to work on the two Scottish campaigns I'd mentioned elswhere.
 
Have a Happy New year.

Ah, so that is what happened?  I guess from that particular layman’s perspective the trajectory of the RA does appear upwards.  They sucked in the initial invasion and have been sucking less and less up through the summer offensive.
The problem with a layman’s assessment is that it ignores the deeper causal issues.  So here is a quick  and dirty professional assessment:
- Russian operational and strategic quality has been a factor in this war but it is secondary.
- The primary factor driving outcomes is fundamental shifts in the character of warfare in the modern age.  Primarily the fact that evidence is becoming nearly insurmountable that we have shifted from offensive primacy through concentrated mass to defensive primacy through denial.
- At Kyiv in Feb of ‘22, the RA had massive mass superiority against an opponent who had not even time to dig in.  RUSI reports show upwards of 12:1 concentrations of RA spearheads to local UA defence, which was largely distributed.  Even accounting for Russian failings, those sort of mass ratios should have blown through whatever defence the UA could mount..and initially it did.
- And then friction kicked in.  Modern warfare, enabled by ubiquitous C4ISR, PGM and deep strike has created friction pressures that in effect break mass.  The ability to project and sustain it in particular.  This combined with a baffling Air Denial dynamic essentially broke the traditional mass concentration ratios.  The UA’s ability to deny air superiority with disparate and ad hoc capability plugged into another ad hoc C4ISR architecture will be studied for decades.  These conditions ensured that however the RA sucked, they had no offsets in the one strength they did have - overwhelming force advantages.
- The northern axis collapsed when the RA was unable to sustain itself.  Russia may suck but no modern army on the planet is built to have its entire LOC infrastructure lit up from space and hit with precision artillery and ATGMs at the ranges experienced.  The fact that the RA undersubscribed the logistic requirement is a combination of sucking and warfare changing.
- Kharkiv was very similar.  The RA was over extended…by emerging modern standard.  They experience corrosive warfare at is zenith as HIMARs got into the game and essentially broke what was left of a logistical system built for another era…Jan ‘22.  The operational collapse at Kharkiv is one for the history books.  How it was established and conducted points to new forms of tactical manoeuvre and exploitation.
- Kherson was a collapse before a full collapse.  In this Russia did learn (after two failures) what collapse was starting to look like.  The pull out may have proceeded in good order but it was also a major operational failure.  Why?  Because of what did not happen (something layman also are prone to miss).  The RA should have been able to turn Kherson into a reverse Mariupol and break the UA on a grinding urban fight.  But they could not…because they were collapsing.  And they still could not establish operational conditions to do otherwise.
- The RA now is benefiting from the shift in character of warfare…not sucking less.  The one thing they did right was put in minefields everywhere.  This multiplied the friction of modern systems dramatically.  To the point that UA mass…wait for it….did not work as it was supposed to.
The RA of today is a shadow of its former self.  Beyond the body count, the high end operational enablers have seen significant attrition.  They are able to hold on and will continue to make tactical offensive just to make a point but they are in no shape for major operational offensive action in their current state.  They are not sucking less, they are better suited to fight in line with what war has become.  Unless the UA buckles and walks away, the RA is able to hold on (maybe) but will take a decade to rebuild itself back to where it was in Feb ‘22.
So “Russia Sux” is only half the story and not even the most important half.   Warfare has fundamentally changed and both sides are grappling with that is why any predictions on what will happen are nearly useless at this point.
But hey we are just guys in a bar talking….

Eric Hoffer put it best: 
"Propaganda doesn't deceive people; it merely helps them deceive themselves."

Russian TGs claimed yesterday not one, but two Russian Su-25 were lost. Allegedly they completed strike mission, but conducting evasive maneuvers to avoid MANPADs launches both planes collided in bad weather conditions. Both pilots are dead. 
Fighterbomber didn't confirm this yet
 

As it turned out, this attack also hit the Russian soldiers on the front line. They also used the mobile operator Kyivstar, since Russian operators do not operate in Ukraine.

I've got a fairly easy three weeks ahead of me so I've decided to revise this one but it's not going to be a straight up remake. Rather, I'm going to split the campaign into two separate campaigns, one for the 9th Cameronians (9 missions) and a second, shorter one for the 2nd ASH (6 missions). I see no good reason to keep this as one long campaign as it's not for official release and splitting it up will make it much easier to manage script-wise. There will be some tweaks to how the player goes to the Veteran or Green branches but I want to get core units done before tackling the new scripts.
Although it was made prior to the 16 AI groups patch, I'm quite happy with the AI as it stands so don't expect any significant changes here. However, the most important change will be that the core units will not start at 80% strength but rather at full strength. While these units were at 80% strength historically, it's not a particularly good way to represent this in the game so I've decided that the fighting strength of these formations should be at 100% and the 'reserve' companies are seriously under-strength. That seems to be a better way to represent this. One side effect of this though is that I'm going to remove the PIAT team attached to every platoon and give 1 section its PIAT instead. This also serves to reduce the number of units the player has to manage and that's fine by me.
I made the new Cameronians core units file last night and have started importing units into the Cameronian missions. I don't expect this will take very long and so it's possible this will be finished later this week. After that, I'll do the same for the ASH missions. I don't want to make any changes that require significant play-testing either. The plan is to have this campaign 'working' again for possible future revisions. But I'm happy to 'fix' any issues you guys might have with it as long as they're quick.
If, and that's a big IF, there is the interest, I may decide to enhance one or both of these campaigns adding flamethrower units as well as further improving the AI, especially the big attacks at the end of each. Regardless of interest, the next step after this is to finish the Montebourg revision so if you have any comments or suggestions for  this one, let me know and I'll see what I can do.
 
Move it! Move it! Let's go!

Maryinka area - Russians have sent forward T-55 VBIED with 6 tons of HE, but it couldn't reach UKR positions - impressive nuke as result
 

Some more advertising 😎 the product is now 98% finished

The final version of this Battle Pack will consist of the following stuff:
1. Campaign "Partizans Land":  6 missions in a period from May 31st to June 6th 1944 
Player will command Axis Anti-Partizan Forces in a small operation along the railway line Orscha - Lepel.
 
2. Campaign "Into Hell": 8 missions in a period from June 8th to June 23rd 1944
Player will command units of German 252nd Infantry Division during the defensive actions north of Witebsk
 
3. Campaign "Our Father": 7 missions in a period from June 27th to June 29th 1944
Player will command mixed remaining units of German 12th, 31st Infantry Division and Panzergrenadier-Division "Feldhernnhalle" 
during the encirclement of Mogilev.
 
4. Campaign "Five Bridges": 12 missions in a period from June 26th to July 2nd 1944
Player will command units of German 383rd Infantry Division and 20th Panzer Division during the desperate pocket battles
around the city of Bobruisk.
 
5. Campaign "Tiger Trail": 17 missions in a period from July 17th to July 26th 1944
Player will command units of 3rd SS-Panzer Division "Totenkopf" during their counter offensive actions around the 
city of Grodno.
 
6. There will be included 16 Mastermaps
 
 
In summary the Battle Pack will contain 50 single missions from tiny sized to huge. All the campaigns can be called as 
"semi-historical". The player will command units that are as historically accurate as possible. A large number of the maps are 
based on original/historical maps. Much time and effort have been invested to the detailed research of the historical battles.
Some historical participants of the events are introduced with additional information. 
 
The whole Battle Pack is a fan made project of my own without any financial interest. I have created it just for my personal fun.
And now important information for everyone interested:
There will be no option to download this Battle Pack from any website. Because it is an exclusive product, I also chose a special way to order it:
If you want to pre-order the Battle Pack (or order it after the release), you have to pm me here in the forum. Give me your e-mail adress and forum-name and I will register you. As soon as the Battle Pack is released, I will send it to you.
In this way I will keep an overview of how many people will actually order the Battle pack - regarding this, I currently have no idea/expectations of numbers.
 
Estimated date of release is February 1st in the 80th anniversary year of Operation Bagration.
Pre-orders are open now !!!
 
Regards
Mr.X 

I just wrote and called both Senators and my Congressman about getting Ukraine funding done. Every single reader of this board who is a U.S. Citizen should do the same.

Likely successfull assasination by GUR/SBU
Deputy of LPR "parliament" Oleg Popov, tied with LPR intelligence was blew up in own car in Luhansk and later died in hospital. Though, some Russian milblogger claim this can be inner showdowns, because Popov belonged to group of Igor Kornet, former "minister of internal affairs" of LPR, who had a prob;lems woth Russian Investigatin Committee and was blown up and heavy wounded in May 2023 in Luhansk.
 
Also by unconfirmed information of several Russian TGs, former Ukrainian deputy Ilya Kiva, who fled to Russia, known with own crazy Zhyrinovskity-style statements, was found murdered today in Moscow oblst on territory of hotel. According one info he was shot dead, by other killed likely with stiletto blow to the temple   

Russian Su-24M, which tried to strike Odesa oblast likely with gliding bombs was shot down by UKR AD near Zmiinyi island. The bomber was covered by Su-30M. Destiny of pilots is unknown, Russian resque An-26 is flying in crash zone, but in cold winter sea chances is almost zero, if pilots wasn't captured by Zmiiny garrison.  
Fighterbomber TG already confirmed. 

Someone provided a surefire way to get across Russian minefields.
 
 

+1  This view of China thinking long term is to me a bit of a stereo type.  Having done some amount of business work in China (admittedly limited), my own view is they tend toward the grandiose with decidedly short-term thinking.  Maybe that is just a biased view from the amount of corruption I have been exposed to, but I have yet to experience anything that would make me think China has some genetic predisposition to think long term.

The 2% are not a contractual agreement. In a 2014 meeting, NATO members agreed to move(!) toward the 2% by 2024 (for those below 2% of GDP).
Not a contract, not even about reaching the 2% - just moving towards it.
Btw, the 2% were 'invented' in 2002 when the Baltic States joined NATO, and the other members were afraid, they wouldn't invest enough.
For the record: I'm all for those 2%.

Economic tea leaves? Little bit?