Eddy

I can understand why the US went nuts over this if the Ukrainians used Patriots inside russia against US wishes. However, I'd argue the facts on the ground have changed now.
Firstly, Ukrainian forces have been killed and territory has been lost because of the VKS's use of glide bombs. There is a need to use long range AA that hit targets in russia that didn't exist back in summer 2023.
Secondly, it's very difficult to argue it would be escalatory when it has already been done and didn't result in an escalation. Unless one wants to go down the rabbit hole of 'ah but this time it may be escalatory'.
Thirdly if the ban is in place as punishment for that incident, the Ukrainians have been punished enough (IMHO)
I really feel for the Ukrainian operation planning guys. There are some countries saying yeah you can use our stuff in russia. Some are saying you can use some of our stuff in russia. And others saying no you can't. Take F16s, the Dutch are saying whatevs and the the Belgians are saying 'don't use our stuff in russia'. Mission planning is hard enough without that added crap.
I can imagine a scene where a M777 crew are having to work out who provided a particular shell before they can decide whether it can be fired or not.
Anyway, rant mode off!

I can understand why the US went nuts over this if the Ukrainians used Patriots inside russia against US wishes. However, I'd argue the facts on the ground have changed now.
Firstly, Ukrainian forces have been killed and territory has been lost because of the VKS's use of glide bombs. There is a need to use long range AA that hit targets in russia that didn't exist back in summer 2023.
Secondly, it's very difficult to argue it would be escalatory when it has already been done and didn't result in an escalation. Unless one wants to go down the rabbit hole of 'ah but this time it may be escalatory'.
Thirdly if the ban is in place as punishment for that incident, the Ukrainians have been punished enough (IMHO)
I really feel for the Ukrainian operation planning guys. There are some countries saying yeah you can use our stuff in russia. Some are saying you can use some of our stuff in russia. And others saying no you can't. Take F16s, the Dutch are saying whatevs and the the Belgians are saying 'don't use our stuff in russia'. Mission planning is hard enough without that added crap.
I can imagine a scene where a M777 crew are having to work out who provided a particular shell before they can decide whether it can be fired or not.
Anyway, rant mode off!

I can understand why the US went nuts over this if the Ukrainians used Patriots inside russia against US wishes. However, I'd argue the facts on the ground have changed now.
Firstly, Ukrainian forces have been killed and territory has been lost because of the VKS's use of glide bombs. There is a need to use long range AA that hit targets in russia that didn't exist back in summer 2023.
Secondly, it's very difficult to argue it would be escalatory when it has already been done and didn't result in an escalation. Unless one wants to go down the rabbit hole of 'ah but this time it may be escalatory'.
Thirdly if the ban is in place as punishment for that incident, the Ukrainians have been punished enough (IMHO)
I really feel for the Ukrainian operation planning guys. There are some countries saying yeah you can use our stuff in russia. Some are saying you can use some of our stuff in russia. And others saying no you can't. Take F16s, the Dutch are saying whatevs and the the Belgians are saying 'don't use our stuff in russia'. Mission planning is hard enough without that added crap.
I can imagine a scene where a M777 crew are having to work out who provided a particular shell before they can decide whether it can be fired or not.
Anyway, rant mode off!

Germany allows Ukraine to use the weapons it supplied to be used to strike targets in Russia

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/pressemitteilungen/zum-einsatz-gelieferter-waffen-an-die-ukraine-2289868
 
 
 

As a side note, I hope I am articulating myself reasonably well here. I am still somewhat new here despite having lurked for an ungodly amount of time on the forum. Its certainly lovely to discuss / talk to you all!


 

Colonel Reisner is back with a new vid. 
 

Here's is RUSI's Justin Bronk's take on F16s (vid should start at the correct place):
To me he overly fixates on the the hurdles of using F16s (fixates on the FOD Plod) and doesn't spend enough time exploring what it and the ordinance it carries can do. But, he's a Professor and I'm not so make your own mind up 😀 

It all depends on whether Ukrainian personnel have received training or not. Flying the thing should be easy enough for an existing pilot, as it's no combat aircraft. Likewise, maintaining the aircraft should be reasonably easy, in comparison to those snowflake fighters. But using and maintaining the AWACS systems? I dunno, but I suspect it'll take longer than a couple of hours in a classroom to get proficient. Multiple months to learn the systems. Maybe years to get expert.
So, unless the training has already occurred, I can't see these being operational soon.
There is one way around this of course. Swedish personnel could be part of the package as, erm, on-premises trainers, so to speak.
Don't get me wrong, still good news and very generous from the Swedes. Just don't expect them to pop up next Monday 😀    

It all depends on whether Ukrainian personnel have received training or not. Flying the thing should be easy enough for an existing pilot, as it's no combat aircraft. Likewise, maintaining the aircraft should be reasonably easy, in comparison to those snowflake fighters. But using and maintaining the AWACS systems? I dunno, but I suspect it'll take longer than a couple of hours in a classroom to get proficient. Multiple months to learn the systems. Maybe years to get expert.
So, unless the training has already occurred, I can't see these being operational soon.
There is one way around this of course. Swedish personnel could be part of the package as, erm, on-premises trainers, so to speak.
Don't get me wrong, still good news and very generous from the Swedes. Just don't expect them to pop up next Monday 😀    

It all depends on whether Ukrainian personnel have received training or not. Flying the thing should be easy enough for an existing pilot, as it's no combat aircraft. Likewise, maintaining the aircraft should be reasonably easy, in comparison to those snowflake fighters. But using and maintaining the AWACS systems? I dunno, but I suspect it'll take longer than a couple of hours in a classroom to get proficient. Multiple months to learn the systems. Maybe years to get expert.
So, unless the training has already occurred, I can't see these being operational soon.
There is one way around this of course. Swedish personnel could be part of the package as, erm, on-premises trainers, so to speak.
Don't get me wrong, still good news and very generous from the Swedes. Just don't expect them to pop up next Monday 😀    

I was just going to reply to LLF, but I'll try to answer with a non answer 😀 
It depends. On what radar they have, on what weapons they receive, on the rules of engagement of using those weapons, on how thorough the pilot training has been, on whether they have Link 16 so they can integrate with NATO ISR, on how well the ground crew have been trained, on how may spare parts they've got. And that's just off the top of my head.
I think they have the potential to make a difference but it all depends. At the least I hope they push the VKS back from the behind the front to stop those damn KABs. One thing I definitely don't think we will see is close air support. I thinks that as dead as the dodo now. 
The one thing I can definitely say is they are no magic bullet.

I was just going to reply to LLF, but I'll try to answer with a non answer 😀 
It depends. On what radar they have, on what weapons they receive, on the rules of engagement of using those weapons, on how thorough the pilot training has been, on whether they have Link 16 so they can integrate with NATO ISR, on how well the ground crew have been trained, on how may spare parts they've got. And that's just off the top of my head.
I think they have the potential to make a difference but it all depends. At the least I hope they push the VKS back from the behind the front to stop those damn KABs. One thing I definitely don't think we will see is close air support. I thinks that as dead as the dodo now. 
The one thing I can definitely say is they are no magic bullet.

I don’t think this is really a thing anymore either.  Conventional aircraft are all standoff air interdiction or ground strike.  What will be important is how well these F16 can be integrated and what why will/can carry.  I am thinking more flying HIMARs and AD to reinforce denial. I have no idea what air superiority even looks like anymore.

I was just going to reply to LLF, but I'll try to answer with a non answer 😀 
It depends. On what radar they have, on what weapons they receive, on the rules of engagement of using those weapons, on how thorough the pilot training has been, on whether they have Link 16 so they can integrate with NATO ISR, on how well the ground crew have been trained, on how may spare parts they've got. And that's just off the top of my head.
I think they have the potential to make a difference but it all depends. At the least I hope they push the VKS back from the behind the front to stop those damn KABs. One thing I definitely don't think we will see is close air support. I thinks that as dead as the dodo now. 
The one thing I can definitely say is they are no magic bullet.

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister states that the Russian 'ceasefire' thing is purely to derail Ukraine's peace summit. 
Kuleba: Putin wants to derail Ukraine's peace summit by claiming 'readiness for ceasefire' (kyivindependent.com)
I suppose it's the safest/default view for the Ukrainian govt. to take whether they believe it or not. 

Fightbomber apparently states that this occurred on April 21 and he himself noted the attack when it occurred. We can safely assume no red line crossed if Blinken's visit resulted in him being okay with western weapons being used in Russia.
 

It might work.  This “peace summit” really reads like a push to have allies sign onto an “unconditional Russian surrender” situation. I am not sure the allies think that is realistic or are on board for another 10-20 year war.  I think we all know Russia is full of it, but it may provide an opportunity to Korean Peninsula this thing leaving Russia to become the new NK - bat sh#t crazy but contained.

More expansion of defense manufacturing in the US. at Lima’s Joint Systems Manufacturing Center (JSMC).

"The JSMC is scheduled for a significant increase in government investment in the publicly-owned, privately-managed factory, with its budget increasing to $287.1 million in 2028 and $300 million in 2029 for plant upgrades, including more automated and robotic processes. The plant, which refurbishes existing tanks, will produce new hulls from raw products for the first time since the 1990s at its 369-acre campus off Buckeye Road, south of Lima"

https://www.limaohio.com/top-stories/2024/05/20/major-improvements-coming-to-limas-tank-plant/

This is an extremely stupid thing to do if you are trying to address American escalation concerns.

https://mastodon.social/@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl/112495522037131982
 
Counter point that it is a new narrative. Well knowing how western media works with its hype cycles it's totally plausible that it's making the rounds right now because they want to report on something. 

Reportedly Crimea under mass missile and drones attack again. 
Explosions in Alushta - locals say "anntenna" was demolished. Likely radar site or comm center was struck. Some sources say about some imporatnt FSB (?) object with large antenna of space communication.
Since Soviet times there was a radar/AD unit on Castel mountain SW from the city. After occupation of Crimea, Russian press wrote, they will substitute one of two old former Soviet/UKR radars for newest Russian.
Explosions also were heard in area of Perevalne - base of 126th coastal defense motor-rifle brigade and ammo dumps, Saky and Simferopol. No information yet about objectives of results

https://mastodon.social/@MAKS23/112491319767010989
That's the fifth claimed since 4th May.

https://mastodon.social/@MAKS23/112491319767010989
That's the fifth claimed since 4th May.

Still no confirmations. Just in one case brigade showed a photo of large smoke on the ground, which was claimed as fallen down Su-25

Strange information form UKR TG  - UKR troops allegedly abandoned Krynky, but advanced, seized new territory and gain foothold in other place. 

Reaction or Russian TG:
Nobody known either they abandoned positions or not. They sat in the house basements near the river bank. To reach this place we have to overcome enough large distance over open skies, filled by drones. Maybe they really have gone, but this hasn't any sense for us. The can to return so easy as they leaved.