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Aragorn2002

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Posts posted by Aragorn2002

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Aragorn2002

    2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

    Hey Aragorn!  Hopefully he didn't do too much damage.  He's had outbursts like this before.

    The pressure is probably a big factor in his words.  Zelensky has watched as NATO 'escalatory' aid increases have kept UKR from damaging RU as much as would have been possible w more aid, earlier.  Imagine the stress he is under! 

    Not that NATO et al haven't been generous, but they have sometimes pissed around too long on things that ended up being delivered anyway.  3-4 months left in the campaign season -- why are we just be giving ATACAMS now??  Why not to help start the offensive season??  It's is sooooo much in interest of the world to have Putin lose so we need stop slow walking important weapons systems.

    I agree, Dan, but preparing and sending military aid takes a lot of time and hard work by many people in and outside the military and not sending Bradleys, Leopards or F-16s doesn't mean nothing is happening in the background. To a certain extend I understand Zelensky's frustration, but it could backfire on him and convince Western leaders Ukraine is not a country that deserves a place in the EU or NATO. 

    Personally for the moment I agree with that. Turkey, Hungary and Poland for example are ruled by corrupt,  unpredictable and unreliable dictators, which cause more problems than they offer solutions to help to strengthen the West's position.

    With too many countries like that, we're doomed.

    But again, I"m all in favor of sending Ukraine all we can, so they can get their country in order and live in freedom like we do.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

    I'm not the biggest fan of Ben Wallace (although he's one of the better of the Tory party), but on this I think the quote being thrown everywhere rather misrepresents what he said - it's rather more in line with what people on this thread have said that Ukraine can't take western support for granted in the sense that they need to be politically savvy about how public statements can sound to the western public. I.e. don't say stuff and present an attitude that is going to give leverage to the political factions that are rather more pro-Russian. Quoting a BBC article:

     

    Ben Wallace's comments in full

    More now on the latest comments from UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.

    In his briefing with reporters, he said that Ukraine had to remember it was asking countries to give up their own stocks of weapons.

    “There is a slight word of caution which is, whether we like it or not, people want to see gratitude,” he said. “My counsel to the Ukrainians is sometimes, look, you are persuading countries to give up their own stocks.

    "And yes, the war is a noble war and yes, we see it as you doing a war not just for yourselves but also our freedoms. But sometimes you have got to persuade lawmakers on the Hill in America [US Congress].

    "You have got to persuade doubting politicians in other countries that it is worth it, it’s worthwhile and they are getting something for it. That’s just the reality of it.”

    He said there would sometimes be "grumbles" from US lawmakers, but he insisted that Ukraine would join Nato.

    “The win here for Ukraine is the sort of cultural acceptance that Ukraine belongs in Nato.

    "You have heard the [UK] prime minister say Ukraine belongs in Nato and the word 'belongs' implies it's fate, implies it’s going to happen.”

    Indeed. Given the West's own military weakness, it's a miracle how much has been send already.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Aragorn2002

    Quote from BBC

    "UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says "people want to see gratitude" from Ukraine, in relation to Western aid

    He said he told the Ukraine government last year that "we're not Amazon" after a weapons request

    He was speaking after President Zelensky criticised Nato for delays in making Ukraine a member"

    Hell, yes. Zelensky really went too far this time. "Weak and absurd" what was he thinking?

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    50 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

    Yes I get the feeling if and when their systems of destabilisation break down, things across the West might start to work a little better.  On the other hand, constant stresses and criticism do encourage us to firm up our ideals and seek workable answers to difficult questions and social conflicts.

    EDIT: Although China is a bigger threat in other ways, I don't feel they would have the same effect in the propaganda sphere, off the top of my head it would be more about building relationships and economic leverage/bribery.

    I agree. In the long term China is even more dangerous and it would be wrong to think of that threat as far from our bed and mainly aimed at Taiwan. Personally I feel NATO has to consider this very catefully, especially by building stronger navy and air forces. And reducing Chinese influence weherever we can.

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Aragorn2002

    13 minutes ago, kraze said:

    Western Europe should exhale with ease then because historically Russia had trouble reaching any of it.

    The Russians are causing the West FAR more damage and trouble than most people realize. They do everything in their power to undermine our institutions, ideals and politicians. It has always been that way, also after the Cold war. They are our most dangerous enemy. And yeah, able and willing to blackmail us with their nuclear arsenal. 

    As long as Russia exists, nobody can exhale with ease. That's what's at stake here, once and for all weaken them beyond recognition, so they can't even threaten their own people anymore.

    8

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Jr Buck Private said:

    This Urkaine NATO membership will be an interesting topic going forward if there's ever some serious attempt at a negotiated peace.   Putin has to have some face saving victory.   Ukraine not being admitted into NATO would be one of the west's best bargaining chips.   Most of us want Ukraine in NATO after the war, but either way Ukraine comes out of this armed to the teeth with an experienced army.   I doubt the Russians would try to invade them anytime soon as it will take a decade to rebuild their armed forces.

    As far as ATACMS.   Is it correct to assume that the Russians have enough air defenses around the Kerch bridge to stop them from getting through?   I was hoping that bridge would soon be toast.

     

    Zelensky is demanding the impossible when asking for a promise about future NATO membership at this moment. It will only give fuel to the Russian propaganda machine. Zelensky knows that, but putting the West under unreasonable pressure, will make them more willing to give him more and heavier weapons. Be unreasonable and ask for the impossible and see what it will get you. Same as Erdogan does actually and it also works for him.

     

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Aragorn2002

    8 minutes ago, Artkin said:

    Besides.. you know... Finland and Romania

    Oh right Poland too, forgot about them.

    And let's not forget Eastern Prussia (Germany) 1914, which was looted and burned down by the Russian army, before the Germans could kick them out again.

    Does that qualify as Western Europe? Probably not.

     

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Aragorn2002

    17 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

    That's not surprising.

    US & Western Europe sent a lot of equipment that needs extensive training and preparation before it can be shipped, so the time between announcing a particular system for Ukraine and delivering it will be quite high.

    Eastern Europe sent a lot of former Soviet equipment that needs little or no training, so deliveries can be done much faster.

    Yep, as simple as that. +1

    Another important point is that the European Union  reimburses Poland for a large part the costs of arms it's donating to Ukraine. We're talking about hundreds and hundreds of millions Euro here. 

    So all is relative, isn't it?

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    17 hours ago, DesertFox said:

    Dutch gov is fallen. Might have, might not have an impact on the F16 coalition. We will see.

     

    Kabinet gevallen, geen akkoord over asielmaatregelen (nos.nl)

    https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1677392171685519378?s=20

    https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1677391922602582031?s=20

    Live: Kabinet-Rutte IV gevallen • Ministerraad om 21.30 uur, daarna persconferentie (volkskrant.nl)

    I don't expect that. Too much consensus on the need of delivering them to Ukraine. Only Baudet doesn't approve, but he's very likely betraying his country for Roebels.

     

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    On 7/2/2023 at 11:25 PM, poesel said:

    Germany and Poland quarrel about a repair Hub for Leopards in Poland. A letter of intent exists for 2 months now, but political issues have so far stopped the project (text in German).

    Next Monday is a meeting between both ministers of defense. Seems to be the last chance to fix the issue before the NATO summit.

    https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/berlin-und-warschau-streiten-ueber-leopard-werkstatt-a-8a3e52c0-6772-470b-8008-0c1390fb23a7

     

    "In Industriekreisen heißt es jedoch, das Projekt sei bisher durch Polen ausgebremst worden. So habe die polnische Firma PGZ für die Arbeiten an den Panzern sehr eigenwillige Ideen für die Kosten vorgelegt, Insider sprachen von »Mondpreisen«. Zum Beispiel wolle PGZ für die sogenannte »Erstbefundung« der Panzer mehr als 100.000 Euro berechnen. In Deutschland seien für diese Diagnose nur etwa 12.000 Euro üblich. Zudem wolle PGZ für die Reparaturen keinerlei Gewährleistung übernehmen, auch dies sei völlig unüblich."

    So the PGZ wants 100 000 for an analysis, while that costs 12 000 in Germany and don't want to give any guarantee for the repairs it makes. 

    I once said that the Poles only act when it's to their own advantage, but I take back my words....

     

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Aragorn2002

    17 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

    This will go down in history as: 'The Great Patriotic Coup D'état'. 

    Indeed. To me it looks like the next step in the annexation of Belorussia.

    As all does doesn't make much sense yet, the only really important question is whether we should expect more escalation or the opposite. Given the number of lunatics surroundung Putin I fear the worst.

    3
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