LongLeftFlank

Stoßtruppen

Putin a little tipsy here, which is quite interesting given the image he prefers to project to the public. But this also does not look like a man who is terminally ill. A little puffy, maybe, but not notably unhealthy for 70.

My read was also this is all a little too smooth. Shooting prisoners isn't a daily event in any army, even the SS. And even calloused shooters (Treblinka, Babi Yar, Srebrenica) observed a certain measured ceremony. Yet, these guys usher the guys into a prearranged clearing in the woods, shove them into line (standing facing them, not kneeling), then step back and casually pop a single burst into them (from below the shoulder). No pause for their last words, no ready-aim-fire, etc. Then a mere instant later, instead of relishing (or staring riveted at) their victims' final throes -- or did they all score perfect heart shots? -- all 3 notice the drone is looking in and abruptly begin shooting at it. ....Notice also the edited jump cuts. Some RUbot needs to post a longer unedited clip, plus some geolocation (there are some skilled pro-RU geolocators like Chris_759) if they want this to get traction.

Yes, undulations are very important tactically. This region gets a lot of precipitation seasonally, as well as snowmelt. That water flows away someplace, cutting deeply into the land. You can see the major streams (steep banks) and also the numerous ravines (yars) that feed them. Those ravines are in turn fed by gullies, which will be filled with brush and scrubby trees. Farmers will cut their own additional drains as needed. Kind of like the US Great Plains (Missouri river valley).

Novoselivske, north of Svatove. Preview from the new CM3 game... Posed shot, but RU soldiers look tolerably well equipped. (pro-Russian Serb but does post interesting stuff now and then) **** Leaving this here, but no idea what this actually is, or which side. It does however look like an impromptu execution, real or posed.

remember also, he's talking (so far) about March-April. A lot changed over the summer. One reality is though, that Ukraine has been evolving from a post-Soviet state and that while its armed forces have showed amazing sophistication at all levels in the combat arms, there's doubtless still a lot of dead wood bureaucrats and mafiya type corruption infesting the logistical tail. That is clearly not a fatal flaw, but is going to take a long time to ferret out.

A little more up to date, latest dispatches from the grizzled polymath Ukrainian Volunteer. https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/12/02/they-were-on-their-way-toward-a-significant-encounter-assuming-they-kept-moving-the-same-direction/ Lot of heavy combat going on around Kreminna…looks like the work we did in the forest of Endor will finally get a chance to be judged on effect. The aim was to wire the place, and make it a dangerous place for Russians to hang-out.... The ground is froze on top, but not yet deep, but heavy equipment can roll on it now pretty well. One good thing about winter is you don’t smell so much after a bit of a trek, but, I certainly don’t smell like the inside of a supermodel’s purse either… [] Noise discipline very important in this weather….if not for the breeze, you could hear a cigarette lighter snap at 50 yards. Bonus From a pro-Russian feed...

For those with time, an entertaining memoir of the chaotic early days of the Foreign Legion by 'Big Mac', a cheerful British volunteer whose nonmilitary background is in rock festivals. He served 7 months (less 4 weeks away with Lyme disease) as an ADC to the company CO, mostly in a swampy area east of Kharkiv. First 20 minutes he rambles about the Day 3 missile strike on the foreign base, which you can skip if you like*. The last 5 is Lindybeige doing the necessary sponsor promos, so the meat of it is about 20 minutes. Cliff notes here.... 23:00 The Duty Experience: 'If you're fighting the Russians, you're mostly in a muddy hole getting horribly shelled. There is no sweet spot. It isn't Call of Duty.' About 700 of 1000 volunteers either went home or found other units. A lot of the Western stanbox vets couldn't handle the mortar stonks ('Goldilocks soldiers'). American non-vets were often better than the Army guys. 'We don't get air support mate...' Few guys brought much in the way of kit; they expected it all to be provided. Casevac was initially on foot to a civilian car, weather conditions. Nobody gets 30 minute casevac, it's more like an hour or two. Rifles maybe account for 1% of the killing; it's all HE. Overall he doesn't have very much good to say about the Ukrainian officers. A lot of ex-Soviet inefficiency in their procedures, and also a lot of nepotism and corruption; 2 trucks of modern small arms went missing. USMC vet and businessman became the platoon leader. A lot of the self-described special operators were weeded out early on Boy Scout level basic woodcraft. A lot of Western militaries don't issue mess tins anymore. Nobody in A'stan had to light a fire or gut a goat. Be grateful we have wet wipes. Richard would have won the Crusades with them. Covid and Flu was rampant in the spring. * One interesing bit: the Russians may simply have useed the large concentration of foreign simcards to locate and target the base, rather than having spies on the inside.

https://morningconsult.com/2022/11/29/united-states-foreign-policy-expectations-democrats-republicans/ Committed partisans will of course see whatever they want to see here, but I find these forced ranking exercises interesting, as a general 'world view' emerges. Of course, it's also heavily influenced by the choices provided and the specific wording of these choices. Notice some are very specific 'upholding, securing, preventing', others are kind of vague: 'US-China relations'

2. Tula-Ryazan is the 'home' of the VDV, including the Ryazan Airborne Higher Command School and other institutes. Not coincidentally, it's also one of the RUAF airbase complexes, which is true back to the 1920s, and was a key defensive point in the 1941-42 battles around Moscow. It is also the base town for the 106th Airborne Division which is basically Russia's 'RDF'; historically one of the first units to get deployed overseas. And during the fizzled coup of 1991, it was the unit that rolled its BMDs into (nearby) Moscow to support the praetorian Taman division (and ensure they did their job, if ordered to. They weren't, thankfully). Basically, if there's rationing (or food stamps) in Tula, that's pretty important. It's one of the strongholds of the regime. If Putin loses the paras, he's done. (aside, the Russians ought to be upsizing all their independent VDV brigades into divisions. They are the only formations that have been able to fight like Ukrainians once they stopped being given suicide missions) 3. Slightly OT, but interesting: https://wavellroom.com/2022/11/09/when-russia-used-an-atomic-bomb-nuclear/ Look! Proof positive that the post-Stalin Soviets MUST be Nazis... or Swiss Army fans.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/12/920eaa7f46c8-japan-to-expand-okinawa-based-ground-force-unit-amid-china-threat.html The Defense Ministry plans to double the number of infantry regiments under the Ground Self-Defense Force's 15th Brigade to two.... the equivalent of a division. **** Hmm, perhaps freeing up the Marines to rebase elsewhere, hmm? Or to threaten to do so..... I would buy property on Taiwan in a second if they came in. Because that would mean the Chinese Canada. P.S. The state just banned extramarital scx in Indonesia. Much more of this Islamopuritanical nonsense and Hindu majority Bali is gonna follow Timor for the exits, backed by ANZUS, as before. For all the drunken Aussies using it as their Cancun, the Balinese have kept their own culture and have always disliked the Javanese (like pretty much all non-Javanese Indonesians). I'm eyeing property in Ubud too.

Great stuff gents, many thanks as always. I have been fortunate to find plenty of spaces where I am by far the smartest guy in the room, so it's great to be not even close in this one. That won't stop me from asking dumbass questions, peeking under rocks and being devils' advocate though; it's a great way to learn.

We should take this over to the CMSF2 Taiwan thread, but umm, where are they going to launch these swarms from? Ships?

It's a valid point about the 1944 Speer war economy quickly becoming autophagic (devouring itself). But there are degrees of popular mobilisation that fall well short of that. What's bothering me is that I am seeing almost nothing in this line. A few workshops that fix up damaged AFVs, distributed so as not to attract missile hits. Crowdsourcing (local as well as foreign) of support vehicles. OPSEC + Western press collusion can't explain that away. Not seeing a War Production Board, no Lord Beaverbrook, no Bevan. I'm sure committees exist, but does their writ run beyond a few major cities? Vitaliy Kim is a great leader (or great at PR anyway). Where are his counterparts all over the country? Also, I keep an eye toward postwar Ukrainian society. While the 'Ukronazi' meme is tosh, there is indeed a quite strong nationalist movement there. Just as you would expect given some 500 years of colonisation, capped off by the horrific period 1914 - 1950. In short, with a few exceptions (e.g. Kira Rudin) the Ukrainians don't think like nice comfortable Western liberals, nor even Poles. They just haven't had that luxury (you see @kraze, I do hear you). ...So what I would also like to see is signs of a 'We're All In This Together' mass movement in Ukraine society that is manifested someplace more tangible than the Twitterverse. Otherwise, do the scarred professional veterans of the 93rd Mech and the airborne brigades come home to a society that pays them lip service but didn't truly share their sacrifices, other than some lights out and consumer crap shortages? Where the plum postwar jobs go to 'draft dodgers' or the politically connected? Post WWII Britain and USA grappled with these social problems successfully. Post WWI Europe, not so well. How will things go in Ukraine? Will war hero generals begin running for Zelensky's chair? (hint: generals typically make crappy and corrupt civilian leaders. Bismarcks are hard to find)

It was 200 Ukrainian ranger battalions I was referring to erupting out of the forests, not a Russian replay of its (as it turned out, mythical) 'Siberian army' of 1941. Based on @Zeleban's report above, the Russians have now learned enough to (try to) keep a watchful eye on UA formation movements. So yes, achieving strategic surprise is going to be a little trickier. But I continue to respectfully challenge your central contention: (absent the West pulling the plug) the UA gets stronger while the RA gets weaker. Or at least, I seek corroboration. I think the Russian army will ultimately get pushed out of northern Luhansk. There is really nothing worth holding there now that the supply routes are effectively cut. The land bridge (Melitopol - Mariupol) is the 'prize' that matters for Putin, by default. Will that be a harder or an easier nut to crack in the spring? I always read your posts very carefully, and many thanks. But I don't see the answer as self-evident. ...Fine, I can't prove that 2 million cheap Chinese flying butterfly bombs (or what have you) will show up to -- if not turn the tide -- render a UA offensive too bloody, and ultimately deliver for Russia the 'frozen' cease fire line they are now reduced to seeking. Steve has been dismissive on this point, but my direct experience with China is that they'll make and export anything that people will pay cash for, legality and morality be damned. (And with the collapse of their real estate bubble plus their Covid crisis they could use another export boom.) Western military thinkers since 1815 have been prone to favour the relentless Big Buildup, followed by the Big Push. God is on the side of the big battalions. That is posited on the overwhelming global superiority of the Western national/allied industrial base, which has been the case since about 1580. To what extent is this still the case in 2023?

Why would you want to give Russia that long to rebuild ammo stocks, lay another gazillion mines and buy whatever Chinese tech gear they can for cash? Remember how even those 1943 era Iranian buzz bombs were quite a nasty surprise? I guarantee you those factory orders are already in and gearing up for production. We stupidly offshored most of the Arsenal of Democracy to an even more rapacious, mercantile civilisation, and this is the price of that. ...I have never yet seen any sign that the benighted Russian army will rot away all on its own without first getting a very hard shove. Collapse is induced, and has proved costly when you give Ivan time to prepare. **** I was thinking more in terms of about 250 independent battalions of white clad, droned-up, missile-toting, veteran-led infantry materialising out of the taiga and tundra, at countless points all along the front. ...I got yer snow eating fog right here boychik. Or in historical terms, hey Surovikin, how about 20 sets of lethal swirling blades all simultaneously heading for URANUS

So the Russian copium machine and its Western amen corner seems to have adopted the 4th grade 'I'm rubber, you're glue' strategy. Basically everything we're tracking here about the Russians: mass casualties, desertions, surrenders, mutiny, low ammo, tank hatches welded shut, etc. -- is being claimed to be afflicting the Ukrainians 2x. It's us, not them, who are on the verge of ignominious collapse. **** So being paranoid, I'm gonna ask again, what is the status of total war mobilization inside Ukraine? Guns and butter is not a thing when 20% of your territory remains under a Russian boot and your power grid is half knocked out. Search "Ukrainian army" + "mobilisation" or "war economy" and you still get 98% articles about Russia's woes. What little you do get on Ukraine is mainly about missile strikes and blackouts and refugees. So where are those additional 500k troops plus 250k in support units that TDF should have been training up and kitting out since the front stabilised in July? Even if there aren't enough tanks and artillery yet, you can still configure them as light infantry. [Per CNN (Nov) the US has trained about 20,000 specialists to date, and is gearing up to train about 2000 more each month. The UK has trained about 10k; other NATO countries, hundreds here and there. Poland keeps mum, obviously. But that ain't no half a million.... ] ....and if for some reason their frontline services aren't urgently needed to drive out the Russians, then shouldn't about half a million Ukie kids be part time training anyway as Seabees, to be ready to work on the relief and rebuilding programs postwar? That Marshall plan don't build itself. Recovery and reconstruction will require at least $349 billion, or more than 1.5 times the size of Ukraine's pre-war economy. ...And if even *that* isn't needed somehow, just to give those extra half million Ukrainian guys (and girls) a more direct stake in their own Republic that's fighting for its existence. They're really letting an all volunteer force carry the weight for a war on their own soil? This still mystifies me. Why WOULDN'T Ukrainian society be totally mobilised now? And why would they be keeping that a secret from the affected populace, their allies and their enemies? You'd think they would be shouting it from the rooftops. Why We Fight! What's missing? *****

Kekekekekekekekekeke!!!! ...i assume the unedited version is kind of nasty.

GFM von Brauchitsch called from OKH; he wants his map back.

https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/11/24/the-ukraine-war-in-data-after-9-months-of-war-what-the-data-tells-us/ There are more than 7.8 million Ukrainian refugees currently reported in other European countries. United Nations data indicates more than 15 million Ukrainians have crossed the border since the start of the war, but millions have returned home, largely from Poland. 6.5 million remained displaced within their own country.

No. RED team are not seriously trying an opposed landing on the (densely populated) northwest coast? ....Where reservists can guide spotter drones and fire Javelins from their bedroom windows into landing craft, as they struggle to steer around the breakwaters and shoals to reach the very limited landing sites. But PLAF has won air supremacy (at some cost)! Great, so what targets are your (fixed wing) CAS going to pinpoint and neutralise, in that string of beach towns? ...Let me guess, they're also going to try a bold heliborne coup de main to capture Taoyuan airport, then send commandos in cars straight into the center of Taipei. Decapitation strike! (I hear those work really well when the local population is longing to be liberated from its own elected government in favor of brutal satraps appointed from a distant imperial capital)

If you keep reading the blog, you understand why, and also believe that this is not a fake, unless it's an amazingly elaborate one. He's what an old buddy used to call 'a war whore'. There's a couple guys in their 80s I drink with in Manila who could still punch me in the throat pretty hard if they had to: LRRP and SAS. Still randy too. ...UV is an outlier for 76 (especially with the smoking and drinking) in that he can still keep up with the younger grunts (more or less), has practical skilz and wisdom that keeps them alive, and is ok dying with his boots on. A Tennessee mountain man.

Thanks for bringing me to this blog! What an epic human being!!!! 76 year old USNA grad, intel/specops in Vietnam and Kurdistan (and Gawd knows where else). Practical expertise in EOD, NBC and EW, and has been employing all those skills at the sharp end with a SpecOps recon squad in Ukraine since March (Irpin, Popasna, Bakhmut, Lyman, Kreminna). As a lesser mortal, I have a rare down day (traveling), so I just read through it all from the beginning. My key notes/quotes are embedded above. Direct from the front lines, a lot of the same trends that have been being discussed here. Highly recommended.

I keep saying to friends off this board that this war has a LOT in common with the American Revolution, with NATO playing the role of France (albeit sans Rochambeau, so far). In that war, it was scratch armies patched together from regional militias (TD) that won a majority of the key battles, from Bunker Hill onward, against the British regulars. Of course, the regular regimental system wasn't as different from that as it became later. ....Wow, a lot of US politix here all of a sudden. So much for that taboo. It was a nice 1750 pages.

He doesn't give a source for this info, but it does not beggar belief given other Russian tactics observed in this and past wars. Science fiction being put into practice? Galeev alludes to this mindset as well.