LongLeftFlank

Good discussion here, team. [replying to @The_Capt's last] In a business context I have found the most valuable practical use of Strategy -- however defined -- is as a 'screen'. In other words, what are the Big Ideas we're NOT going to dissipate large amounts of our time and treasure chasing. Hence, 'off strategy'. So in the Ukraine war context, let's say your strategy (theory of success) is to achieve the battlefield defeat of the Russian army. I might further characterise as a the enforced surrender or rout (e.g. Kherson was NOT a rout) of a Russian CAA army (which is more like a corps of 3 - 4 divisions in Western terms). That implies you 1. focus on the land bridge/Azov coast, which is the hardest Russian concentration for them to supply, support or reinforce 2. cut the supply routes, both in and out (the sea one is hardest, but not invulnerable -- there are only a few ports) and within the zone 3. assuming they've already stockpiled heavily and distributed, either destroy or make unavailable those caches (focus on the trucks with switchblades?) That implies you DON'T 1. mess around in Belarus (unless the enemy gives you an opening). 2. bother retaking northern Luhansk or even Kreminna -- the supply routes through there are already effectively cut 3. expend too many top quality forces holding Bahmut, unless you're truly bleeding away Russian forces at a very favourable loss ratio ... what else?

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/01/07/i-have-not-seen-any-but-hear-that-nafo-patches-are-being-worn-in-the-field/ No AAR in this one, but a few snips. One of the things I am writing on that I think we all have learned is that the typical recon maneuver techniques are not working all that well in this winter/mixed terrain and with the proliferation of drones. Terrain matching is much more important than the typical maneuvers Still thinking that a ghillie suit/cloak with a kevlar lining, to mask IR and provide limited protection from grenade fragments and the like would make a lot of sense in this kind of war.

A Ukrainian officer serving in the East, who asked to remain anonymous, ventured an estimate of a dozen casualties a day. ...Just Bakhmut. FWIW, MacGregor claims a battalion (300) per day UKR losses, all fronts (although some RT shills try to claim that's KIA only). That would be at the very high end, e.g. during the summer Russian artillery offensives. But 150-180 on average these days wouldn't surprise me, given the intense fighting here plus the ongoing probing operations in Svatove-Kreminna and around Torske. ...So in nearly 320 days of war, total UKR combat losses (KIA/WIA) MAY run in the nature of 60 - 70k? (65k / 450k prewar + TD = 14.5%) Russian losses seem to run some 4 x that (albeit from c.3.5x population base). Say half suffered by separs, mobiks and zeks (45k alone) and the rest by their professional land army of c.700k. 140 / 700 = 20%

Another interesting forensics thread from Danspiun, providing context for various videos and images, in this case the recent fighting around Bakhmut. Worth browsing. Master map-making gold here, eh @benpark?

"Salt mine" is an industrial complex, visible here.

Frivolous bourgeois stoner, and fellow traveller of Entwives!

Well come on Copernicus, next you'll be That Guy asking why Thorondor didn't just carry Frodo and Nazgûl-repelling-beam-of-light-Maia Gandalf express to Mount Doom and save books II and III? ...Or why the well-greaved Achaeans didn't do that horse thing straightaway, or just burn all the crops and starve out Troy, saving ten-odd years of repetitive 'and his hand clutched the earth, and the darkness came before his eyes' blahblahblah in between....

Full disclosure: I rooted for Hašek in '98. You may now place me on Ignore and revoke my passport....

I like the old story about the new student who asked: 'Scuse me, can you tell me where Harvard Yard is at?' and when the supercilious reply came: 'At Hahvahd, we do not end our sentences in prepositions.' responded 'OK, can you tell me where Harvard Yard is at, *******."

Hey, if Canada took Ukraine in as a province or territory postwar, that would solve Ukraine's NATO problem, tout suite. Also, they're in NAFTA in the event the Eurocrats get too insufferable. (If I'm a factory owner, I'll take Ukrainian oligarchs over Mexican drug cartels in a heartbeat) ...It would also solve Canada's Olympic (men's) hockey drought in short order. Come on (offit), what's so hard about this? Canada's seen it all before. Recognition as 'distinct society', check! Cultural love for skidoos, jacuzzi built-ins and gas grills, check! 'Consensus government', check! (extreme localisation might actually suit Ukes kind of well, very Viking.... also doesn't threaten Grits' stranglehold in Ottawa) Rights to (almost but not quite) secede peacefully, check! Endless colourful folk costumes for Justin to prance around in, check! Yalta vastly more attractive summer beach destination than Port Colbourne, Sarnia, Yarmouth, Hanlans' Point or Wreck Beach (I must steadfastly deny any direct umm exposure to the last two, anyway it was decades ago) Solid majority of the Canadian electorate no longer suffers from a deep need to feel guiltier and more woke than the Americans, for at least another generation, check! Subsidised by Alberta and Ontario, check! Perhaps draw the line at trilingual education.... [PS please don't take this seriously]

In the year 2525.....

YPR 765s on the move in Bakhmutskye (by Soledar). Counterattack? Yeah, that ceasefire thing na ga happen....

1. Said to be Soledar; either a striking photo filter or a video game render. 2. WSJ snips on the drone war. 3. I don't recall any photos of Zhukov or Rokossovsky goofing like this.

Soledar, which guards the north flank of Bakhmut. Dubious source, so unconfirmed but UKR side twittersphere admits situation in Soledar is difficult: 'attacks from 3 sides'. This guy is pro-RU, but a decent variety of maps. Geolocation of footage (Bakhmutske) HeliosRunner's topo map from 18 Dec.

Epic trolling This could of course be a Photoshop job, but I will quote the epic line from "Patton" - Sir, did you say if you found your army between the Germans and the Russians you'd attack in both directions? - No, I never said that. I never said any such thing. But I wish I had!

There are no words. No, sadly, there actually are..... ... As rousing oratory, this one is right up there with Himmler's '1000 Russian women killed digging an antitank ditch' tub thumper. Look at the faces around this yutz.

As 100% of Forumites will know, 'Tank' is an English word, originally a WW1 codename. Both Americans and Russians adopted the term, hence yбак. ...But as @Taranis and our other copains here can advise us, the French term is char, which is applied freely to a broad range of tracked and wheeled military vehicles (e.g. char d'assaut), both armoured and unarmoured, as well as, wait for it, ordinary cars (voitures). Specific chars are differentiated by adjectives (e.g. light, etc.). But I believe even the VBCI (Véhicule Blindé de Combat d'Infanterie), which Anglophones would call an IFV is still un char for short. And since the first modern pattern 'tank' is the FT17, the Armée de Terre has as good a claim as anyone. ...Meanwhile, panzer is literally, armour (as in a mail coat). (OK, the Acadian branch of my family is proud of me now, in spite of my miserable French marks) P.S.

....Sadly, spent 25mm uranium (DU) round fragments littering the fertile black earth is an environmental crime in itself, but there's gonna be a massive and costly Cambodia level cleanup anyway. Plus, well, Donbas....

Your assessment (thanks for the posts!) is quite close to my own. In the current paradigm, attacking into prepared defences is difficult and costly for either side, even with a badly impaired enemy. With every week that goes by, the land bridge area -- the one piece of ground Putin MUST hold (beyond the Feb 2022 lines) to give his fig leaf 'victory' -- becomes more analogous to the built up Kursk salient of mid-1943; belts of trenches (prefab bunkers?) plus mines, mines and more mines (remote controlled mines, smart mines, wheeled mines, etc.). Continuous channeling and killing zones, to slow and then blast UA forces with old school mortars and rockets (which Russia can still produce in bulk with a little Chinese help). And their tac air arm will become more formidable supporting such a static defence. It is unsafe to assume he never learns, and eventually the Ukes may run out of ways to surprise him. A "retro" Russian army, even poorly commanded, trained and resupplied, can make the Ukrainians pay dearly in blood and equipment for every meter of ground. There's no "snow eating fog" solution I can see for this case. Even though the overland routes from Donetsk are already largely denied by fire, a siege of Crimea+landbridge is still likely to take a very long time indeed when they can't deny the sea crossings to the Russians. Prove me wrong, please.

An elegant weapon for a more civilised age?

Interesting overview of key dynamics in MOUT. Could easily be expanded into a book. https://mwi.usma.edu/defending-the-city-an-overview-of-defensive-tactics-from-the-modern-history-of-urban-warfare/ The density, construction, and complexity of man-made physical terrain in urban areas allows soldiers to rapidly use or shape the environment to further strengthen a defense plan. These plans should seek to break apart an attacking formation, separate mounted from dismounted forces, limit the attacker’s ability to maneuver, degrade military technologies like intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance and aerial strike capabilities, maximize surprise, and either defeat the attackers in detail or buy time for other tactical, operational, and strategic actions. Building Strongpoints Rubbling Buildings Concrete Barriers Interior Building Heavy Weapon Systems Positions Wood, Tin, Tarpaulins or Cloth Sheet Coverings Caches Rapidly Emplaced Hasty Obstacles Hit-and-Run, Antiarmor Ambushes Snipers

The Kraken video (watch it in case you haven't, although it is quite graphic) is sparking some good commentary. 7. When dismounts are moving "slow is smooth, smooth is fast;" 8. Good to see the Ukrainians using AFVs in support; 9. The necessity of training for close quarter combat; 10. The collateral damage outside & inside a building which makes it challenging to approach & clear 11. Even small urban areas have subterranean parts; 12. The challenges of communicating in combat; 13. Be careful with the use of tracer rounds; the enemy will see from where you are firing 14. Be prepared for enemy counter-artillery fire because now they know you're in the town. Seek shelter soonest; and 15. The need for all fighters to train for casualty triage & challenging urban casualty evacuation

My favourite comment: 'It's only a Light Tank if it comes from the Light Tank region of France. Otherwise it's a Sparkling Armored Vehicle' I am old enough to remember the naysayers slagging off the Bradley as like the old definition of a camel: a horse designed by committee.

I guess they leave it to the operators to repaint/whitewash the vehicles? 2. Keep an eye on the paras. 3. Rasputitsa. Conditions like this explain why MTLB exists.