LongLeftFlank

China has every reason in the world to want first call on the huge resources of Siberia. But given an armed conflict could trigger a nuclear war they have no plans to colonise it a la Tibet, unless over generational timeframes. It makes far more sense for China to fund, build and maintain all the necessary extractive and export infrastructure and then have an effective lock on the goodies -- all of which are extremely valuable -- paying the goons in the Kremlin a suitable royalty. This is more of a Saudi situation than anything. Russia was always wary of this arrangement as it thought of itself as world class at O&G, mining, etc. and wants to sell to the highest bidder. But Putin now has no choice in the matter. So China will implement its grand buildout, and I think that will happen far more swiftly than anyone expects given China has been doing this all over the world for a decade plus. In return, they will shore up Putin's war machine (and economy) with basic kit, not AFVs or planes but lower visibility crucial things Russia can't make for itself any more: spares, electronics and probably (via cutouts) ammo. Their assumption will be that the economically shaky West is just too addicted to their stuff to do much more than grumble about any of this. And they are almost certainly correct, unless they bring Taiwan into the mix or sumfink. .... So for purposes of this topic, I see Russia getting a stream of essential kit from China which will grow as months pass. Well underway already in fact. Hence part (not all) of my original view (which I've been expressing for many months) that time isn't as much on Ukraine's side as many of you guys seem to think. If they bide their time until spring to liberate the land bridge, they could well find themselves facing a less mechanised but much more effective (on defence, anyway) army.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-fleet-militarised-ships-threat-trade-taiwan-386v50q3g The Chinese government demands all merchant shipping is dual military and civilian use and roll-on, roll-off ferries have been designed and used for military exercises including landing operations. “Each Chinese ship is a ship of war. The crews chiefly consist of military personnel,” said Holslag. “In China ships need to be built to military specifications to allow them to transport tanks. Ferries have to be able to sail the high seas and can bring tanks and amphibious craft on land.”

Oh sure, there's plenty of bear-riding weirdness to go around.... If not a deepfake, I assume this is from the Sacha Baron Cohen period of VZ's comic career? ...I mean look, it's no worse than Monty or Earl Mountbatten, or half the Romanov line, got up to, and the only one who should (perhaps) care about his kinks is his wife. But anyone who doesn't think today's Ukraine is culturally part of Europe is off [Their] rocker.

Really good stuff here, many thanks.... [Est.] half of all competent ground-fighting company commanders in the Russian force in Ukraine are either KIA or WIA. The absence of a competent Russian non-commissioned officer corps compounds systematic reliance on junior officers [who in turn rely on their company commanders]. Company commanders lead the fight by synchronizing fires, movement, and supporting units. A company commander is also the highest-level officer who knows each soldier in their unit... A capable officer at this level represents a prolonged investment in education, training, and experience....If those officers are lacking, mobilized troops will not be able to form mission-capable units Russian officers tend to be specialists and spend their whole career in one branch, often on a single weapon system. ...So you're pleading 'not guilty by reason of Sean Hannity'? [/rimshot] Good piece, if a touch backward looking and shy on prognostication. Still worth reading. Kofman reassessing. Coauthor Rob Lee has been out in front with the Osint corps since the start. Russia’s current strategy appears to be focused on buying time to raise a larger force composed of mobilized soldiers with better training and equipment than those who have already been deployed. The Russian military will now have a much higher force density to terrain ratio, and can conserve ammunition if it pursues a largely defensive strategy. Ammunition availability might be the single most important factor that determines the course of the war in 2023, and that will depend on foreign stockpiles and production. As it stands, the Russian military will struggle to restore offensive potential, but it can drag out a stubborn defense. Ukraine appears advantaged long term, but the longer the war goes on, the greater the uncertainty, and advantage is not predictive of outcomes. **** Good clear-minded thread on Sino-Russian ties here. Have no illusions about how quickly and massively China Inc. can ramp up mass production of, well, pretty much anything (except super leading edge stuff, temporarily) once it puts its mind to it. I live in this world, every day. The West greedily shipped the Arsenal of Democracy overseas for a mess of WalMart pottage and this is the consequence. I pray the Ukrainians don't pay the price for that. IMHO, over the long term, Russia's embrace of the Dragon is going to have much bigger consequences for the world than either Taiwan/SCSea or Ukraine, or even the future of Russia itself as a Kremlin-ruled concern. China will at long last control (even via RU clients) the sheer quantities of resources commensurate with its customary place in the world (i.e. approximately 30% of world GDP). From a pure strategic resource supply standpoint (and I am setting aside climate issues and consequences here), it will achieve parity with the US without needing to overcome US ocean dominance. The 'pen to write that global playbook' is Made In China, guys.

Boxing day here in the Far East. This is for you, @BFCElvis and for our other fine hosts and forum alte kameraden.... In answer to your query DF, since you asked I might glibly observe as follows: 'Every moment Ivan squats in the mud (static fronts) he gets _________' a. *Stronger* in the sense of more capable at field survival, as his frontline infantry self-selects into combat effective warrior bands who can use the same infiltration and bushwhack squad level tactics the UA have been using on them to date. Better at digging in, better at patrolling/local situation awareness, less AFV-tied, better with rockets, cleverer in use of mines. Their total front line bayonet strength is going to reach parity with UA again shortly, if it hasn't already. And never ever forget, Russia has 3.5 x the population of Ukraine. That hasn't counted to date, but over extended timeframes I think it will matter (cf. prior discussion on 'tipping points' for losses) b. *Weaker* in terms of the ongoing degradation and depletion of matériel, from ammo stocks to barrels to drones, all the kit our host and our forum experts and external Osint sources have been flagging since late Feb. But I don't see that yielding a 'slowly then all at once' breakdown in combat capability or will or what have you. Rather, as others have said, I see a reversion of the RUA back into a 1940s infantry army, largely incapable of sustaining deep attacks, but on defence still quite lethal, and capable of extracting an increasing blood toll for every meter of ground. Blood toll from an enemy with a recruiting pool c.1/3 their size.... Can the UA itself evolve to dismantle (or bite off large chunks of defended territory from) such an army without paying an extravagant blood price? I am not seeing how that happens. I also continue to worry about a steady stream of basic but useful Chinese tech (comms, sensors, etc.) making its way to the Russians, compounding the lethality of that 1940s warfare style. IF that is all allowed to become true, then sadly, this war is going to freeze on roughly its current lines for 6-9 more bloody months, until a cease fire is at last reluctantly declared. Russia will keep most of the land bridge (grudgingly placing the nuke plant under UN control, 'UNFUK' lol, ht @Combatintman) in return for evacuating (vulnerable and depopulated) northeast Luhansk, lick its wounds and await a rematch, or a new (but still warmongering) 'Good Tsar' or both. East Ukraine will remain economically crippled, a no mans land. I am disappointed (or suspect/hope for a deception) when Gen. Zaluzhny says he doesn't have or need another 200,000 UA reservists trained up and ready. Because while 600 tanks is what he'd like to retake the land bridge today, that window is likely closing. If he waits until the end of spring rasputitsa he could well end up with 600 flaming wrecks and little to show for it, as many Ivans will have by then figured out how to fight like VDV (or Ukrainians). I have no solid view one way or another on home front collapse, regime change, etc. Like Zaluzhny, I hope for it but don't count on it. FWIW, just some guy on the interwebz. You asked.

Merry Christmas to all. This is a very good thread. 2. Dedovshchina, as always. Actually, I disagree with ChrisO (a rarity). This is neither here nor there wrt the effectiveness or motivation of the men. They merely expect it; they might even 'like' this officer if he is in other respects reliable and is as hard on himself as on them.

No, not missing any point. I merely think your premise is mistaken, and (possibly) skewed by good old fashioned partisanship. Too much time reading those sinister Liberal Sites, tsk tsk.... Nobody can seriously deny that isolationism is a much bigger faction in the GOP today. The American Conservative reads now like Pat Buchanan essays cribbed by AI. And there's a logic to it: it gets votes with The Dam Furriners Took Our Jerbs! folks (they DO have some valid gripes on that, btw). ...That said, since Reagan, the GOP has always made one huge exception to their idee fixe of Big Gov Bad / Starve The Beast: that's the uniformed services and MIC. All those GOP Congressmen live or die based on defence plants and bases in their districts. Hell, that's all the industry left there now (see point above), other than building trades and agribiz (which also likes globalism and Ukraine btw). Also, NO US flag officer* backs Russia. Serving officers (and revolving door retirees in the MIC) still command respect, even among the wingnuts. Finally, there's America's 51st State in the Mideast which will NOT be cut off, ever. Good luck tackling that one, Tucker. Didn't work out well for Buchanan. So whose interests will most (not all, sure) of these Reps *actually* vote when push comes to shove? You really don't think there's more than enough largesse out there to tip the balance as needed? * MacGregor retired at only LTC; he has been a Team B gadfly since 73 Easting. There is no Smedley Butler out there.

1. Before we blame all this on isolationist Deplorable Know Nothings, take a deep whiff of this.... https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/12/russia-sitrep-of-sorts.html This is the Old (nonwoke) Left Berniecrat blog, although they've chucked him too now. The founders keep quoting the same 8 highly erratic people (Ritter, MacGregor, Helmer, MofA, Mercouris, etc.) in rotation, while ruthlessly sanitising anyone who dares challenge Kremlin-origin alternative facts. Such as: - the UA is now losing a battalion a day in Bakhmut, and while lavishly equipped out of NATO's now rapidly depleting stocks they are incompetently/cowardly commanded and poorly fed, while medevac is at 1941 levels. Local logistics is a corrupt shambles; their rail net is shut down. The UA can't keep tank battalions operating, still less warplane squadrons. Their sole effective strike arm, HIMARS/arty is all Western-crewed and you know, those perfidious BoJo commandos..... - Azov, Kraken, et al., are mafiya-run SS skinhead militias who won't fight (unless trapped a la Mariupol). They force middle aged UA conscripts to stay in the line, when they aren't busy enforcing blanket 'OPSEC' on civilians, cleansing out Russian speakers or reselling foreign provided kit in Africa for big $$$. - Whole regions of Ukraine are depopulating now, as their freezing-in-the-dark people decamp to become (unwelcome) refugees across the energy strapped EU. Their economy (already a patchwork of mafiya fiefdoms) is now ceasing to function, for war or any other purpose. EU cities are filled with Ukrainian child prostitutes. Oh, and huge numbers have fled, or been driven out to mother Russia. (4th grade schoolyard logic: Well uhh... YOU are a poopyhead times 2!!!!!) There's a Russian guy who comments, and even he prods now and then at the Putin rahrah echo chamber and quickly realises he is walking on eggshells. No outside views are tolerated: that is all a Vast MSMDNC Conspiracy. 2. Once you're done there, go do a Ukraine search on pretty much any 'Left' journal or publication outside the Anglosphere (or nations bordering Russia who actually KNOW what they're dealing with). ...They make Tucker look 'fair and balanced'.

Oh FFS, here we go I never thought I'd miss Kettler.

Ho ho ho, Xmas memes for everybody!!!!

Pat Lang, stalwart conservative and no fan of JRB 46 (albeit no fan of DJT 45 either), has been onside from the start. https://turcopolier.com/the-story-of-carol-of-the-bells-a-christmas-classic-born-in-ukraine-ttg/

Well here again, instead of spluttering in outrage, I just keep nosing through Their sources periodically. Just to see whether there's anything They are seeing that We have somehow missed. They! They! (and then post some memes) ...But nope, so far it all seems to trace back to the same claque of raving lunatics (Helmer), Hate America/The Empire Firsters (Moon of AL, Greenwald) and stubborn permacontrarians (MacGregor), all cross-citing one another or 'citing' sources (e.g. Indian bloggers) that ultimately trace back to Russian pronouncements. **** But where's our Collapse @The_Capt sir? You promised Collapse? You Promised!

Whatever happens, we have got the Maxim gun and they have not

Interesting thoughts, but I suspect your threshold is a good bit too high given modern communications (which makes comparisons to Czarist or Stalinist times of limited value imho). I'll accept that 350k is not the tipping point though. ...What about the community consisting of Russian armed forces careerists and siloviki? Threshold for pain is higher, sure, but what, maybe 25 million in uniformed services families (parents included)? Consider the case of the Russian Afghan war, which was wound down in part (though not entirely, and after some 8 years) owing to an upwelling of protests by bereaved families (50k = 15 KIA + 35 WIA). So clearly, some kind of tipping point was reached albeit not insurrectionary. Note that nobody here is claiming body count ends the war all on its own. Nor will sanctions nor anything else, even a large battlefield defeat, on its own. EDIT: Looks like you covered these points above. That said, still an important topic.

Smoke 'em if ya got 'em 2. Discussion of the magic number, 100k KIA 3. Pep talk from Bakhmut, but looks like the situation there is still tenuous. Arestovich claims 60,000 RU casualties in the past 3 months in this area (direction).

https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/is-china-planning-to-attack-taiwan-a-careful-consideration-of-available-evidence-says-no/ Opinion piece: There is a conspicuous lack of evidence that the government has decided to pursue a military solution.... Chinese leaders routinely direct the military to prepare for Taiwan contingencies. Neither has Beijing made any effort to rally public sentiment in favor of war against the island.... a course of action that would very likely shock the public, lead to severe economic disruption, and expose many people to serious harm or death. National unification may be a popular idea among Chinese citizens, but war isn’t. The wargames favored at U.S. think tanks typically explore the devastating first few days of conflict but rarely consider what might happen afterwards. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/2022/08/12/in-think-tanks-taiwan-war-game-us-beats-china-at-high-cost/ Some variants had Japan involved from the start. The Philippines allowed U.S. basing in some iterations, but not others. Game moderators permitted U.S. strikes on mainland China in some, but not others. In a version earlier in the week, the United States lost 700 aircraft over the three-week battle. War games once dominated discussions but fell to a low point during the counterinsurgency decades of the early 2000s. A heavy element in the Marine planning for a war with China is its Marine Littoral Regiment, a still-forming unit that is experimenting with new weapons systems, formations and employment strategies.... In every scenario, once the conflict stars there’s a “forest of Chinese ships” around Taiwan. In other games the Chinese military sunk an entire Amphibious Ready Group twice.... every single time no Marine made it to the beaches of Taiwan The Marines’ key weapon, the Naval Strike Missile, simply can’t shoot far enough with its 100 nautical mile range.... If I’m not on Taiwan, that weapon is basically useless. While the China team had early successes, they lost far too much and took too many strikes on their ports and supply chain to continue the fight. By the end of the game, the China team had more than 30 battalions on Taiwan, quite a feat in under three weeks of battle. But the U.S. was able to cut off the Chinese resupply entirely, leaving thousands of simulated Chinese soldiers foraging for food, low on ammunition and trying to outmaneuver U.S. forces in a cat-and-mouse fight. Once the U.S. gets its forces flowing into theater, the result is almost unchangeable — the U.S. wins, but at a heavy cost.... the Chinese Navy ceased to exist in any functional capacity after a few weeks of U.S. strikes.

I too spent salad days as a penniless grad student in DC, in '93 - 95; one of the only truly bike friendly cities in the US (in Canada, most cities are). U street and 'Madams Organ' were the hopping places back then, although I also caught some great live bands (e.g. Social D) at the 930. Overall, a fantastic city to be young and geeky-but-pretty in. I lived, loved and lost richly!

So did St. Nicholas Although, kids still there???... wtf?!!!! 2. HeliosRunner's sitrep thread. As usual, I like his topo maps, although his front line markings should not be taken too literally.

...killed during an air-raid on Tobruk; a NAAFI tea urn fell on his head. So where might we find imagery of devastated districts of Donetsk City, leveled by 8 years of merciless Banderite terrorist shelling? Pretty easy to find on the Ukraine side of the line.... Both sides filling up hospitals....

Oh, I know there's a Chinese company happy to send Chinese technicians to provide those essential services, and all the equipment... for cash. And hey, why not cut out the middleman, they'll happily modernise and operate all the O&G infra and mines for Mother Russia as well, and provide all the civil infra gratis. Here, just let the nice warm friendly dragon slither its coils around you while your own society dissolves, stupid drunken bear.

Anime take on the drone p^rn....

1. So about that upcoming winter offensive. 2. Mobiks gonna be mighty uncomfortable after sunset. And the Ukies may be able to smell them from a distance. 3. For the CMBS2 terrain files. Urban ground tiles gonna need a lot more ambient litter: paper, plastic, wood scrap.

I assume someone will geolocate this street eventually and establish which side of the lines it was filmed on... But at the moment, I'm inclined to believe it's real, since GirkinGirkin doesn't tend to knowingly circulate Russian prop.