LongLeftFlank

Noted, and your points are entirely reasonable btw, so hope you don't take it personally. ...But reelpolitik and historical experience (e.g. Uboats) says to me that the 'court of world opinion' has already divided over this war, and nobody is going to toss over Ukraine for breaking some rules its invader has already ignored, in a titanic HE-intensive struggle for its existence, on its own territory, where its people bear the entire practical consequences of its military decisions. Also, victors write the history books, and indict the war criminals.

Sure, whatever. I am shocked, shocked. 'Unrestricted submarine warfare' was also explicitly banned by the 1936 Naval Protocol. War crime, Brits were all ready to string up Doenitz for it in 1946. And then the US Navy CINCPAC awkwardly cleared its throat.... 1943 war of the Marus, anybody? To be more direct, since Russia is now regressing to its historical 'strong suit' as a dumb mass infantry force (flying in the face of its actual demography), it follows that Ukraine's surest path to victory is measured in buckets of Russian blood. ....Secondarily, it is measured in beans and bullets *not* getting to their trenches, but that is a different kind of mines. Look, we can afford to tut tut all we like on our keyboards, from the safety of our various gamer mancaves. But if cheap, plentiful AP mines kill and wound Russian skinheads by the bushel, and hinder them advancing to turn yet more Donbas towns into a moonscape, Zaluzhny's boys are absolutely gonna use them, whether the West goes tut tut or not. (And if they aren't effective then they won't use them). Anyway, the postwar EOD clearing burden is already baked in; plenty of those 'legitimate' shells landing on the aforementioned moonscapes are duds.

To hazard a guess: 1. UA elite rearguards are now striving (and bleeding) to extract the maximum possible price in mobik blood (and secondarily, RU heavy bombardment expenditure) before vacating these fortified positions. Same goes for Bahmut itself. 2. I trust they will also leave behind an endless nightmare of lethal mines, traps and motion sensors aimed as much at Russia's diminishing number of trained sappers as at the cannon fodder. Civilians must be compelled to leave, and stray animals shot. Free Fire Zone 2023 style, 20km deep. Enjoy your new conquered 'Russian lands', b*tch*z. 3. These actions also buy UA time to shore up and harden (pour cement and sow mines) on their next line of defence (although I'd guess that's been in hand since November). No breakthrough to the 'Green Fields Beyond'.

Yes, Perpetua is really good. I need to send him a few coins. And speaking of acid commentary.... ...But wait, did Strelkov also pronounce the early 'culmination' of the '2023 Gerasimov Offensive'?

Lol, my Oostindische blood brother, another man born a century too late, liked to say, archly: L'Afrique commence à la Loire.

Good maps, bad news....

Woot! #KillAllTheTrucks!

I've never lived in Taiwan but have enjoyed half a dozen visits to the Taipei metro area and once, to Kaohsiung. Thoroughly enjoyed both business and leisure time there, which I definitely CANNOT say about the Mainland. ROC Taiwan is a distinct Chinese society, though the Japanese and KMT legacy does show. I believe that if mainland society were more like theirs, China truly would be a superpower by now. Japan x 12. ...But China is 1-2 generations away (and sadly, perhaps one more ruinous war) from that status still, thanks largely to the Wilhelmine CPC oligarchy in Beijing, for whom the existence of Chinese societies that do not bend the knee to the Emperor is an intolerable affront, calling their Mandate of Heaven into question. IMHO. But this is OT for wargaming.

While moms of the immortal fallen are getting... whatever fell off the truck.

Nice thought but still too much Russian artillery, and probably whatever passes for CAS, would make any such backhand blow Pyrrhic. And the UA can't afford Pyrrhic at the moment.

Yeah, a certain wistfulness and admiration definitely comes through in Girkin and Murtz, just as it did in some Vietnam commentators back in the day (we're backing the wrong umm guys). They know it isn't only Western weapons beating them up. If I had 10 divisions of such men, our troubles here would be over here very quickly.

OK, fair enough. I google searched the guy who publishes his stuff, one Kyle Mizokami, and let's say that while he would be a blast to drink with, I wouldn't take his stock tips. Like @Kinophile I am inclined to believe this guy is real, as I simply can't figure out why anyone would deliberately fabricate somebody like this. But I can't offer solid proof. So, season to taste and caveat emptor, like many of the other sources cited here.

Yes, as someone who called BS on the Devils Guard series from the moment I read it at age 16, that was my initial response too. But if you want to persuade us this is fake, could you please (request, not an instruction)) skim the entire series of posts, starting from about April (it's about an hour of interesting reading), and then give us your sense as to why you conclude this is all an elaborate fabrication, and why. No, really, skepticism is OK and I am genuinely open to being persuaded this is a highly sophisticated fake. But my own (biased, flawed) gut is telling me that this Tennessee Academy dipdunk war whore is quite real, and while I suspect he won't survive this war given the brutal calculus in the SoF actions he is describing, I would love to shake his hand if he does.

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/02/05/the-rpgs-we-have-now-are-russian/ Old guy call sign AMAROK (lone wolf) is still dodging fate in the woodlands SW of Kreminna. Appears they see a lot of potential for a general counterattack, which actually in some ways has been going on, depending on how you define it. Our space is a bit crowded right now. The Russians are dispersing better than in the past and are trying to get tricky with their attacks. Seems they have some better guys on the ground now. Tanks in front, infantry mostly behind and at the rear flanks. If they had been forward, it would have been a dubious task at best.... The Russians would be more effective if they placed their artillery in more confusing, staggered fire locations, but from what we have seen, at least, they tend not to do that. They also tend to keep their logistics close, at least in this forest, which increases the effectiveness of our counterbattery fire.

OK, that helped, cheers mate. But let me push the thinking a bit further, quoting ChrisO: 1. The most experienced and well-prepared group of stormtroopers comes first, with excellent equipment. It's comprised of eight men, each with a 'Bumblebee' [possibly meaning an RPO-A Shmel thermobaric rocket launcher, effective against fortified positions. 2. Once fire contact has been made [with the enemy], the group digs into positions. Digging in is taught as meticulously as combat operations, so by military standards, digging in is almost instantaneous and very effective. 3. Even if the group is demolished to zero, the next one already realises where the previous one has reached. The main task is to make contact, dig in and transfer positional data to the artillery. Artillery can fire from an hour to several hours. 4. Groups of 8 people go in waves - usually 4 waves are prepared for the attack. But there have been cases in Soledar where it took 14 waves to take one area. 5. Groups have drone operators to lead the whole group into position to clear the area. .... So forget my stuff about mines or starvation. How does UA best defeat this scheme, or accelerate the point at which Russia can't find more meat (women? Norks? Africans? Muscovite IT majors?) to toss into it? P.S. This is starting to sound like the 1982 Iranian human wave offensives around Khorramshar. Anyone here recall how the Iraqis coped with them? (the wikipedia entry is sketchy and skips around various time blocks)

Your other paragraphs are clear enough, but apologies, I am having difficulty parsing this one. And this is not to criticize, I just want to be sure I'm not missing something really new and interesting. 1. Wires... what again, sorry? Entanglements that don't also go BANG? Really? Also, copper wire field phone comms? Really? 2. What's 'AP artillery' if not scatterable bomblets? And you've totally lost me on the back-to-front part.... Apologies again if I'm missing something obvious.

Maybe not. Consider the 1987 'Toyota War' in Chad. https://www.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/detalle/-/blogs/toyota-wars-and-the-next-generation-in-counter-insurgency-strategies This is simply 'partisans with Panzerfausts' gone mobile. War on the cheap. The Russians have been doing the same for some time as well: the 'tachanka' tradition.

So in the rock-paper-scissors game, while we wait for the drone swarms (that we need Chinese help to make in bulk quickly btw) to kill all the mobiks or all the trucks or whatever, what trumps Dumb Mass of Russian bodies backed by what remains a formidable artillery arm? 1. Starvation -- both munitions and food -- was ultimately the tool used by the Americans against the Japanese, whose sole suit once their Navy went down became fanatical infantry with a little obsolete artillery and a light tank here and there. Of course, interdicting sea logistics was a lot easier than overland, but starvation trumps brutality. 2. Antipersonnel mines: Schu mines, bouncing betties, toepoppers, butterflies, claymores. Yeah sure, treaties Hague norms fairy, whatever. Do you need to kill and maim bushels of badly trained Russians (and bog them down so your artillery can kill or main still more bushels of badly trained Russians) fighting across what is already an ecological and social moonscape, or don't you?

Speaking of large bags of gas, Big Serge here, to make right all our wrongthink! This is the Ukrainian Verdun, or gonna be, once they secure that there High Ground, any week now! With 9 to 1 advantage in tubes (shells, hmm, perhaps not so much). https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-world-blood The return of static positional warfare, however, also reflects the synergistic effect of increasing Ukrainian exhaustion along with a Russian commitment to patiently attriting and denuding Ukraine’s remaining combat capability. They have found an ideal place to achieve this in the Donbas. A curious new definition of 'ideal place' of which I was previously unaware. But ok, let's hear the Serge out, he at least attempts to cite 'facts', albeit cherry picked.... The Donbas is a particularly accommodating place to construct formidable defenses. It is highly urbanized and industrial (Donetsk was the most urban oblast in Ukraine prior to 2014, with over 90% of the population living in urban areas), with cities and towns dominated by the typically robust Soviet buildings, along with prolific industrial complexes. Ukraine has spent much of the last decade improving these positions. [Map by the Serge, so season heavily with salt, laced with various heavy metals. But weren't the Izyum-Lyman thrusts last summer supposed to outflank these lines?] At this point, the frontline sits directly on what I have labeled as the 2nd and 3rd Ukrainian defensive belts, and both of these belts are now heavily bleeding. Sure, now define 'heavily', and by whom? Secondly, lots of the, shall we just say “good stuff” around Slavyansk is to the east of the city, including both the dominating high ground and the major highways. Assuming the Russians just get to stroll over there if Bahmut falls. But oh yeah, Zelensky is clean out of hohols and British-Polish mercs, I forgot. Anyhoo, more like this if you fancy it.

Conscripting women now.

Yeah, that and The Fifth Dimension (upupandaway), but Steve has warned us that excessive meming is the handmaiden of bourgeois deviationism. But... page 2001! EEEEEEeeeeeeEEEEEEEEEEeeeeeEEEE!!!!!

Gen. Zaluzhny noted to TIME that he keeps Gerasimov's staff college works on strategy in his office.

Mommy? Whydoeseverybodyhaveabomb? **** I think I predicted Norks showing up in Russian service back on page 300 or so. One of the best income earners for the Kim dynasty for decades has been to supply loggers and miners to Siberian enterprises, the dirty, cold and hazardous work formerly done by Gulag zeks.

(well not me I guess lol) **** Winter Offensive, or just shove everywhere and hope something breaks? Been quite some time, innit, since we've seen any Giant Red Arrows of Doom© Interesting thread on the GLSDB.

So will they rename Donetsk 'Stalino' again?