LongLeftFlank

There are more ways of bringing the war home to Russia's feckless population than blowing selected Belgorod bridges, or sending home their sons in pieces. Their come uppance might well be a one way ticket back to 1980s telecom. Cyber warfare -- by which I specifically mean *sabotage*, not espionage/ELINT/propaganda -- has been an unexpectedly marginal player in this war to date. ...But that might not remain true. And once again, it may turn out to be the ever resourceful Ukrainians who draw the first major blood in this space. As with everything else though, they're keeping stumme about it. I went through some recent journalism, all dated September, to catch up on what's happening. To avoid an overlong post, I've embedded my quotables for those interested, with links, in the bubble above. Slava Ukraini! PS.

Well this is another OT tangent, but 'privatisation' of government has other names, really: feudalism, oligarchy or monarchy.

Northern Luhansk. RU finally stabilises a line along the boggy Krasna river, but the N-S rail and roads are under UA fire. Ergo, cut.

1. Boom ...turn into orders, it could lead to the delivery of up to 500 new howitzers 2. Meanwhile, Putin appoints Immortal Joe to lead his War Boys to Valhalla, from whence they will return, all shiny and chrome!

For those worried about Luka reopening a third front against Kyiv or Lviv.... The Free Belarus legion might be able to take Minsk with those upgraded Slovene T55s in a month.

Seems entirely possible... look at that sag.

OK, before we totally turn turtle into the ditch of US politics, here's some shiny new Bridge Theory whodunnit stuff, courtesy of ChrisO, who is on my daily 'check in' list now. Still in the category of RUMINT, but the Russian source theorising could be as revealing as whether this bloke is actually the saboteur/martyr/dupe.

Oh cripes, don't go there.

Yeah, given the brilliance and moxie the Ukrainians have shown, I have no trouble imagining them founding a thriving electric vehicle and commercial space industry, and then happily putting Elon out of business. Living well is the best revenge.

1. Supply lines. Besides the rail lines, notice that coastal superhighway. 2. Defenses. So, I find this a little odd.... a. If your 'bridgehead' has shrunk to this, what's the point? Just withdraw to the south bank. b. If your purpose is to deter a UA coup de main to seize the dam, then you'd better keep those trenches properly manned. Otherwise, haven't you just made it *easier*, not harder, for a small crack force to come in, take and hold it against counterattack, by obligingly digging positions for them?

Notice one crewman callously leaves his shocked and injured mate to his fate, as the tank brews up a few moments later. Give it up, Russia. Go the hell home, stop this endless parade of stupid, FFS. If you won't even fight for your comrades, what's left? You aren't even effing bandits at this point, that implies some form of teamwork.

Super intense firefight. You must admit this Russian gunner has some balz. You can skip to 0:30 (just FF road movement up to then). Interesting shell tracks too, for make benefit future CM effects modding! @Vein , in case you're still out there.

When the Twitter pop up tells you to sign in, click through, and the next popup will let you close it. Until they change the rules again....

Squeeze, Rabban. Squeeze hard. Chekisty moving into the high command, surprise. Next stop, blocking detachments. And after all, appointing Himmler worked out so very well for Heeresgruppe Weichsel in 1945.

If Gawd won't do the smiting, do your own.... Can some kind of bunker buster or daisy cutter be delivered to the foot of one of those piers (any pier will do actually, doesn't have to be these)? Bielefeld Viaduct after Barnes Wallis' 'Grand Slam' earthquake bombs came to visit.... Also, the Russkis have been tossing around thermobaric rounds like candy in this war. Maybe aim a few along the roadway and see what the lateral overpressures do to the RR bridge and those nice tall (and possibly mob-substandard) piers....

ChrisO has just published a lengthy thread on the crucial battles for Dovhenke, the stubborn 'cork in the bottle' that from Apr - Aug stymied all Russian attempts to advance from Izium and take Sloviansk-Kramatorsk from the north. With no major rivers and (seemingly) good tank country, this direction was Russia's best chance to secure the northern Donbass and perhaps Dnepro as well, before the Western long range guns and HIMARS came in strength and altered the game. Dovhenke should definitely be the subject of a future CM campaign series! @Combatintman's synthesis from April. Dovhenke is that green patch just to the west of arrow AA2, about a quarter way along. P.S. It has its own Wikipedia entry now.

Exactly! This is vastly better analysis than Kofman's anxious 'oh, don't provoke the Russians or they'll get *really angry*' hand-wringing. ...Like the kids who once bullied him, they're totally inside his head. They own him. Meanwhile the Ukies are inside Moscow's, more every week, totally undercutting the bully's sense of superiority. And eventually, he starts avoiding them, seeking easier prey. ...I don't always agree with you on here mate, but I sense playing cards with you would get quite expens ive. [duplicate quote bubble, I can't get rid of it so gonna repurpose it, it isn't an actual FC quote....]

Which in spite of a lifetime of distinguished scholarship and analysis, is advertising him as pants at any actual kind of negotiation. Kofman just keeps insisting on playing the game Putin has set up. Meanwhile, UA just keeps setting fire to various squares across the (now divided) Red half of the board. (OK, have I burned that metaphor to the waterline yet?)

Chuck Pfarrer pushing a SpecOps theory. Surprise. I don't share Steve's missile theory but I agree with him that a blast from below (abutments) would (a) show more damage to the piers (b) show more damage to the other road bridge but little to none to the rail bridge above. Yes, while most tiny bits of truck would be underwater now, I agree with some observers that you'd be finding at least some bits of it on the undestroyed roadways. That may still happen of course.

....But why missile the (duplicate) roadway instead of the (irreplaceable) railway?

Barring further forensic evidence, it seems like this blast was intended to take out the northbound lane of the road bridge on this particular day, which it did, spectacularly. The spectactular train fire seems like to have been hoped for, but not relied upon. So it seems the Kerch rail link is not out permanently.... yet. And it will be more heavily guarded than ever. But the UA GenStaff is inside Stavka's head now. ... Should they shove as much kit and supplies across today as they have on hand, depriving other hard pressed fronts? Materiel, especially artillery ammo and rockets, can't be everywhere at once. This is another massive stressor for the Russians, and another genius strategic move for the UA, levering their much shorter interior lines.

Götsill mit uns!

The Ukes are inside Vova's head, which is probably why they executed the operation they knew they could pull off, on this particular day. Illia P's Twitter comments have jumped the s̶h̶a̶r̶k̶ dolphin at this point....

'Tis but a scratch....