LongLeftFlank

Girkin gave Kraken 2 thumbs up... 2. When Putin sends chef Prigozhin to light a fire under their arse, he does it... 3. The Russian world, episode _____:

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/12/31/on-the-way-back-we-ran-across-a-lot-of-dead-russians/ [Kreminna woodlands area] A lot of Russians were also either moving or prepared to move. We did notice they are less static in the forested area, and are trying to keep their elements in positions where they can be mobile. It is a good tactic, and reduces their vulnerability to artillery. I suspect it is also because they are concerned that we are making feinting moves to get them to commit reinforcements to a particular area. They are right. Command always assumed they would try to break-up into smaller units and increase their mobility, and it was part of our job to influence where they went. It seems to have worked to some degree. Once they do commit [we] make sure the support elements are located and can be hammered. Digesting this piece some more, along with other snips and snails, like the Russian soldier overheard griping about his forward position being repeatedly shelled by friendly tanks positioned further back. As we've discussed earlier, the Russians are becoming more of a 1940s infantry army, albeit with more modern comms. They have clearly (re)learned infantry screening and patrolling by this point. Their reflagging of mobiks as VDV (who always trained to fight this way) could be part of it too. So as a counter, the UA is inducing the Russians to commit still more troops farther forward. This places yet more stress on their supply train and draws down their combat capable reserves for when the hammer blow(s) land. Troops already up front are a lot slower to pull out of the line and shift hundreds of miles (btw, division scale redeployments is one operation Ukrainians and others have noted the Russians have been quite good at).

Happy new year Steve, and to the BFC team! https://turcopolier.com/russia-running-out-of-troops-in-battle-for-bakhmut-battalions-split-up-isw/ Those squad-sized assault groups of 10 to 15 Russians are probably what’s left of platoons or companies.

...or that's what they want Ivan to think. Ukraine fighting is deadlocked, spy chief Kyrylo Budanov tells BBC The making of a young Hero of Ukraine 92nd Mechanized Brigade is named after Ivan Sirko, a 17th Century Cossack military leader. There are few obstacles as fiendish, or varied, as Ukrainian mud. One moment it's a deep, sucking soup, the next a thick putty clogging machinery, weighing down boots, and gumming up everything. We drive past one soldier who is hammering frozen chunks of it off his stranded truck with a mallet. It isn't just the crude Iranian buzzbombs being knocked down. I'd attend church more if this guy was officiating....

Indeed. https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/12/31/on-the-way-back-we-ran-across-a-lot-of-dead-russians/ Ukrainian soldiers have also proven themselves to be very motivated and fast learners. The “too much time needed to train” excuse is just that, an excuse.

Wow. That would be so awesome. So barely into the first winter and already the 'elite' Russian forces are being diluted down into indifferently armed mods. ...It took the Germans until what, mid 1944 to start doing this to the SS and Fallschirmjager formations. ...My prediction is that the corpses of Koreans (Norks) are going to start showing up in numbers by February.

FWIW, National Review is fully pro-Ukraine. Buckley was always a firm Atlanticist and the neocons who run the shop there today are pretty much the same. No idea why Buchanan isolationism has so completely taken over at TAC. They were never entirely in the tank for Trump, so I'd need to put it partly down to kneejerk Biden bashing. **** As for outsized advisory fees and subsidies for rebuilding, it all really comes down to what we spent a page discussing above about Afghanistan. 1. Unlike Russia, the Ukies are not sitting on any massive exportable resource besides grain, so the question is, how do they make money for themselves and for their investors as part of postwar Europe? Since living well is the best revenge, always. 2. As I've said before, I personally believe in a maquiladora theory; Ukraine's role is to become a manufacturing base for Europe, offering highly skilled labour at rates comparable to India or Vietnam which will rise over time to Thai or Malay middle income status. Over time, the lower skill factories can start creeping into Russian oblasts (Chinese gonna be there already). 3. So those subsidies that have the isolationists so riled up, will be really about (re)building the required supporting civil infra. That's stuff BlackRock knows how to do (and yes, make crazy profits off). 4. Notice the Chinese won't be able to undercut the EPC contractor market here although face it, there's a lot of essential OEM kit only they make in bulk. 5. That is FANTASTIC news for contractors, at least in countries who Did The Right Thing (gives sideye to the Germans and Koreans). Good times to be a Scandinavian firm, for example. 6. Sure, a nice slice will vanish into the pockets of well-connected local subcontractors and 'law firms' (connected to politicians), that happens everywhere. But unlike A'stan, it also won't stop the growth story from happening. 6. Only the threat of another Russian invasion will stop that which is why the Russian army must be defeated, and know it's defeated. 7. The key marker for that - for all the risks that entails - is Russia losing Crimea and Sevastopol. They are forfeit in any case, owing to Russia's actions, although some foreign supervision could be allowed ("UNFUK") to safeguard civil rights (no ethnic cleansing). UKR could even consent to demilitarisation of Sebastopol (an easy sop). FWIW

Thanks Jon, I was hoping you'd take a prod at what little substance there is there. And sure, everbody here knows 98% of the site is regurgitated RT prop and hate-Amrika-First which is a waste of time reading, still less quoting. Just that one small snip struck me as plausible though, as least in terms of it being the right kind of thing to put some effort into in that sector. ...OTOH, the New Yorker long piece I posted a couple days ago describes some pretty intense and accurate RU artillery. P.S. MoA are downright pikers when it comes to Kremlin tub thumping. MacGregor's 'sources' now have the Russians killing hohols in the Bahmut sector at a ratio of 10 to 1. In their own good time, he says, white clad Belarusian tankers will slash southwards to Lviv, opposed only by women and a few Polish mercs, plus the speed bump of the 82nd Airborne. Meanwhile, Surovikin's pincers will close on the shattered remains of UA east of the Dnepr. URRRAAAAA(nus)!!!!!!!

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/ukraine-sitrep-counter-artillery-war-financial-desaster.html Borderline treasonable MoA blog talks up last month's Russian counterbattery campaign around Bakhmut, which I would guess is quite real. House artillery experts? A special cell was created to wage the fight against Ukrainian artillery around Donetsk. More counter artillery radars were moved in. More satellite picture interpreters began to look for firing positions. Longer range counter battery guns also appeared. Over the last ten days the campaign began to show significant results.... Anybody's guess as to what the actual results are of course, or whether Ivan took some losses in return, but no doubt there are some.

It wouldn't have been an outsider's choice at all, still less the people's (whoever they are). It would have been whatever group of armed strongmen could enforce the bargain of local security on everyone else in return for a boatload of royalties. But there would at least be some kind of actual economy functioning (as well as some infra), as opposed to foreign aid trying to subsidize castles in the air that nobody in power there wants. Look at the Congo; it still barely functions as a society. Every terrible thing that happens to humans happens in spades there (Ebola to cannibalism, you name it). And yet it's been cranking out cobalt and countless other crucial metals nonstop ever since the Belgians left. The spice must flow....

So long ago, I asked a buddy of mine who spent time 'left of the Khyber' in the 80s 'what is the main export of Afghanistan?'. His reply: 'Wide-assed goats.' ...And for all the ZeroHedge CTs about 'Gold in them thar hills', that's basically the reality today. Largely owing to the sheer o'nriness of the people, who don't permit systematic prospecting still less mining infra development, there are no viable resources there for foreigners to dig up and cart away. Ergo, unlike Siberia (or Arabia) there's no stable income stream for local leaders to extort a handsome rake off of, in return for providing security. If Chinese discovered the world's largest chromite deposit or wev there tomorrow, things would change reeeeal fast, even in the Pashto heartlands. That was the real opp the Allies blew in A'stan, IMHO. Or maybe there really is nothing much up there but rocks and nervous goats. The Himalayas are geologically frustrating for miners, with some exceptions that are small scale. The dumbed down version is, you need volcanic fissures to create large veins of ore (compare New Guinea or Chile or the Rockies) and then those veins can't get all smashed into bits later on. Here you have India smashing into Asia (the Deccan traps are farther south), which is fine for creating gemstones but not so much for metals. And forget hydrocarbons, except in the drainage basins.

1. Bahmut 2. Kreminna https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-kreminna-battle-recapture-russia-supply-lines/32197165.html "First, they throw in the mobilized soldiers for certain death, like meat," said one soldier who asked not to be identified due to military regulations. "Then, if they break through, the more experienced fighters move in." Ukrainian forces were focused on disrupting Russian supply lines in the settlements around Kreminna.... "There's a railway junction. [Seizing it] will greatly disrupt their logistics. Then, I think, they will retreat from Bakhmut." (same article, with video) 3. Ukroid gladio message grrlz got yr IG message in 5.45mm....

...Yeah, at the end of the day, money talks. The Chinese will pay off the local Yakut [et al.] leaders to buy complaisance, plus provide a few low paid jobs like security guards and bar girls (anything remotely skilled will be done by Chinese 'guest workers'). This is the PRC pattern, worldwide; they undercut the market price by half but you get an all-Mandarin black box. There will be no need for forcible 'Han-ization', unlike minorities living within China itself who are being forcibly Sinicised (not just the Uighurs). Mongolia will also go permanently into the Chinese orbit btw. Without Russia guaranteeing its security, I'd guess it becomes a near term target for overt Han colonisation. The population of 3 million isn't even a rounding error in the Han ocean. ...Also, only some of the indigenous peoples of Siberia are Muslim, and many of those are Stalin era deportees. Islam never went very deep into the original Khanates. **** 2. Shell famine, via RU Telegram 'Dva Majora' https://turcopolier.com/some-considerations-on-the-sufficiency-of-shells-in-the-russian-armed-forces-ttg/ Currently, there are reports that the units are receiving 152mm shells made in 2022, the quality of which raises questions due to the large number of defects in comparison with the old batches. The apparent use of a Rapira for indirect fire support coincides with the increased use of Russian tanks in the indirect fire mode, another indication of artillery shell shortages. More.... https://wartranslated.com/russian-fighter-topaz-on-artillery-shell-hunger-and-discipline-of-the-mobilised/ 70-80% of the mobilised military personnel turned out to be unfit for combat for several reasons.... Yesterday’s factory worker has no idea what denazification and demilitarization of brotherly Ukraine is (I don’t quite understand either). [And yet] What to do? Do not lose faith, unity, and honor. Fight to the end, because the Russian people and our homes are behind us. We will definitely withstand it. 3. Cuz, you know, Strippernomics.

Great CM-level stuff here [I can't use the quote box feature]. This bit is important: Many of the professional soldiers in the 72nd had been killed or injured in Bakhmut. Conscripts had replenished the ranks. Some had attended a three-week basic infantry course in the U.K., with instructors from across Europe, but most had received only minimal training.... Attrition is cutting both ways, guys. **** Short update from grizzled old UkraineVolunteer We talked a lot about the defensive lines the Russians are building, and pretty much dismissed them as very vulnerable under the right circumstances. Direct fire can pulverize the tank teeth they are placing, and tanks with dozer blades can push what is left into their moats. That would be a lot easier with direct air attacks, but can be done under an artillery screen.

https://commons.com.ua/en/intervyu-s-oppozicionnym-rossijskim-izdaniem-doxa/ Interesting piece (in English) on the Russian antiwar movement. Speaks to, though not resolving, some of the pointed questions raised on here, e.g. isn't silence = acquiescence? Many people who got politicized during the protest wave of 2011-12, mostly urban middle-class, got disillusioned. Many leaders of the anti-Putin movement believed that radicalism is bad. The Russian opposition systematically persuaded people that you shouldn’t do anything against the law, defined by the Russian state.... [Organisers] taught people that they shouldn’t give in to “provocations”. Everybody goes home after the rally. And nobody occupies squares. Many thought that emotional empathy [on social media] is itself an action. But in reality, they were just sitting, worrying and worrying, and emotionally exhausting other people as well. [After 2014] the leftist part of the movement split, influenced by Putin’s propaganda about “people’s uprising” in Donbas. Many believed those narratives. The surest way to get the window of your car smashed is putting a “Z” sticker on it, parking a car – and someone will smash your window for sure. There are a lot of anti-war stickers in large cities. A lot of people essentially became political refugees but at the same time they are the refugees from the aggressor country. Every time we talk about their problems we’re being careful because it might take the spotlight off the Ukrainians who are being bombed. We realize those are not the same things. One might say the [antiwar] movement is being built now, but it’s being built on a scorched field. Over the last twenty years, anti-Putin opposition in Russia was run over by a bulldozer every time, and every time it had to start over from scratch. Every time new people, with no experience whatsoever, were creating a movement. We [editorial] are 23-25 years old. When Crimea was occupied, our oldest were 17. What is Igor’s story? When the war started, he realized he’s radically against it but never understood what he can do about it. He made a living by selling rare items on Amazon, but then his card was blocked due to the sanctions so he couldn’t do that anymore. And he realized he must try to do something. He went to Krasnodar to find work, and in Krasnodar he threw a Molotov cocktail at large Z-banner. He failed, Molotov cocktail just got shattered, no one even saw the fire. But Igor went on and threw Molotov cocktail at the FSB building, painted his cheek the colors of Ukrainian flag and started shouting slogans. He did it consciously, didn’t try to run away. He wanted his action to be demonstrative, to inspire other people. But nobody noticed him. Perhaps, “radical” action is sometimes safer than peaceful picket now. If you derail a train they might never find you, provided you prepare properly. Surveillance cameras simply don’t cover the whole length of the railroad system. Sigh.

China has every reason in the world to want first call on the huge resources of Siberia. But given an armed conflict could trigger a nuclear war they have no plans to colonise it a la Tibet, unless over generational timeframes. It makes far more sense for China to fund, build and maintain all the necessary extractive and export infrastructure and then have an effective lock on the goodies -- all of which are extremely valuable -- paying the goons in the Kremlin a suitable royalty. This is more of a Saudi situation than anything. Russia was always wary of this arrangement as it thought of itself as world class at O&G, mining, etc. and wants to sell to the highest bidder. But Putin now has no choice in the matter. So China will implement its grand buildout, and I think that will happen far more swiftly than anyone expects given China has been doing this all over the world for a decade plus. In return, they will shore up Putin's war machine (and economy) with basic kit, not AFVs or planes but lower visibility crucial things Russia can't make for itself any more: spares, electronics and probably (via cutouts) ammo. Their assumption will be that the economically shaky West is just too addicted to their stuff to do much more than grumble about any of this. And they are almost certainly correct, unless they bring Taiwan into the mix or sumfink. .... So for purposes of this topic, I see Russia getting a stream of essential kit from China which will grow as months pass. Well underway already in fact. Hence part (not all) of my original view (which I've been expressing for many months) that time isn't as much on Ukraine's side as many of you guys seem to think. If they bide their time until spring to liberate the land bridge, they could well find themselves facing a less mechanised but much more effective (on defence, anyway) army.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-fleet-militarised-ships-threat-trade-taiwan-386v50q3g The Chinese government demands all merchant shipping is dual military and civilian use and roll-on, roll-off ferries have been designed and used for military exercises including landing operations. “Each Chinese ship is a ship of war. The crews chiefly consist of military personnel,” said Holslag. “In China ships need to be built to military specifications to allow them to transport tanks. Ferries have to be able to sail the high seas and can bring tanks and amphibious craft on land.”

Oh sure, there's plenty of bear-riding weirdness to go around.... If not a deepfake, I assume this is from the Sacha Baron Cohen period of VZ's comic career? ...I mean look, it's no worse than Monty or Earl Mountbatten, or half the Romanov line, got up to, and the only one who should (perhaps) care about his kinks is his wife. But anyone who doesn't think today's Ukraine is culturally part of Europe is off [Their] rocker.

Really good stuff here, many thanks.... [Est.] half of all competent ground-fighting company commanders in the Russian force in Ukraine are either KIA or WIA. The absence of a competent Russian non-commissioned officer corps compounds systematic reliance on junior officers [who in turn rely on their company commanders]. Company commanders lead the fight by synchronizing fires, movement, and supporting units. A company commander is also the highest-level officer who knows each soldier in their unit... A capable officer at this level represents a prolonged investment in education, training, and experience....If those officers are lacking, mobilized troops will not be able to form mission-capable units Russian officers tend to be specialists and spend their whole career in one branch, often on a single weapon system. ...So you're pleading 'not guilty by reason of Sean Hannity'? [/rimshot] Good piece, if a touch backward looking and shy on prognostication. Still worth reading. Kofman reassessing. Coauthor Rob Lee has been out in front with the Osint corps since the start. Russia’s current strategy appears to be focused on buying time to raise a larger force composed of mobilized soldiers with better training and equipment than those who have already been deployed. The Russian military will now have a much higher force density to terrain ratio, and can conserve ammunition if it pursues a largely defensive strategy. Ammunition availability might be the single most important factor that determines the course of the war in 2023, and that will depend on foreign stockpiles and production. As it stands, the Russian military will struggle to restore offensive potential, but it can drag out a stubborn defense. Ukraine appears advantaged long term, but the longer the war goes on, the greater the uncertainty, and advantage is not predictive of outcomes. **** Good clear-minded thread on Sino-Russian ties here. Have no illusions about how quickly and massively China Inc. can ramp up mass production of, well, pretty much anything (except super leading edge stuff, temporarily) once it puts its mind to it. I live in this world, every day. The West greedily shipped the Arsenal of Democracy overseas for a mess of WalMart pottage and this is the consequence. I pray the Ukrainians don't pay the price for that. IMHO, over the long term, Russia's embrace of the Dragon is going to have much bigger consequences for the world than either Taiwan/SCSea or Ukraine, or even the future of Russia itself as a Kremlin-ruled concern. China will at long last control (even via RU clients) the sheer quantities of resources commensurate with its customary place in the world (i.e. approximately 30% of world GDP). From a pure strategic resource supply standpoint (and I am setting aside climate issues and consequences here), it will achieve parity with the US without needing to overcome US ocean dominance. The 'pen to write that global playbook' is Made In China, guys.

Boxing day here in the Far East. This is for you, @BFCElvis and for our other fine hosts and forum alte kameraden.... In answer to your query DF, since you asked I might glibly observe as follows: 'Every moment Ivan squats in the mud (static fronts) he gets _________' a. *Stronger* in the sense of more capable at field survival, as his frontline infantry self-selects into combat effective warrior bands who can use the same infiltration and bushwhack squad level tactics the UA have been using on them to date. Better at digging in, better at patrolling/local situation awareness, less AFV-tied, better with rockets, cleverer in use of mines. Their total front line bayonet strength is going to reach parity with UA again shortly, if it hasn't already. And never ever forget, Russia has 3.5 x the population of Ukraine. That hasn't counted to date, but over extended timeframes I think it will matter (cf. prior discussion on 'tipping points' for losses) b. *Weaker* in terms of the ongoing degradation and depletion of matériel, from ammo stocks to barrels to drones, all the kit our host and our forum experts and external Osint sources have been flagging since late Feb. But I don't see that yielding a 'slowly then all at once' breakdown in combat capability or will or what have you. Rather, as others have said, I see a reversion of the RUA back into a 1940s infantry army, largely incapable of sustaining deep attacks, but on defence still quite lethal, and capable of extracting an increasing blood toll for every meter of ground. Blood toll from an enemy with a recruiting pool c.1/3 their size.... Can the UA itself evolve to dismantle (or bite off large chunks of defended territory from) such an army without paying an extravagant blood price? I am not seeing how that happens. I also continue to worry about a steady stream of basic but useful Chinese tech (comms, sensors, etc.) making its way to the Russians, compounding the lethality of that 1940s warfare style. IF that is all allowed to become true, then sadly, this war is going to freeze on roughly its current lines for 6-9 more bloody months, until a cease fire is at last reluctantly declared. Russia will keep most of the land bridge (grudgingly placing the nuke plant under UN control, 'UNFUK' lol, ht @Combatintman) in return for evacuating (vulnerable and depopulated) northeast Luhansk, lick its wounds and await a rematch, or a new (but still warmongering) 'Good Tsar' or both. East Ukraine will remain economically crippled, a no mans land. I am disappointed (or suspect/hope for a deception) when Gen. Zaluzhny says he doesn't have or need another 200,000 UA reservists trained up and ready. Because while 600 tanks is what he'd like to retake the land bridge today, that window is likely closing. If he waits until the end of spring rasputitsa he could well end up with 600 flaming wrecks and little to show for it, as many Ivans will have by then figured out how to fight like VDV (or Ukrainians). I have no solid view one way or another on home front collapse, regime change, etc. Like Zaluzhny, I hope for it but don't count on it. FWIW, just some guy on the interwebz. You asked.

Merry Christmas to all. This is a very good thread. 2. Dedovshchina, as always. Actually, I disagree with ChrisO (a rarity). This is neither here nor there wrt the effectiveness or motivation of the men. They merely expect it; they might even 'like' this officer if he is in other respects reliable and is as hard on himself as on them.

No, not missing any point. I merely think your premise is mistaken, and (possibly) skewed by good old fashioned partisanship. Too much time reading those sinister Liberal Sites, tsk tsk.... Nobody can seriously deny that isolationism is a much bigger faction in the GOP today. The American Conservative reads now like Pat Buchanan essays cribbed by AI. And there's a logic to it: it gets votes with The Dam Furriners Took Our Jerbs! folks (they DO have some valid gripes on that, btw). ...That said, since Reagan, the GOP has always made one huge exception to their idee fixe of Big Gov Bad / Starve The Beast: that's the uniformed services and MIC. All those GOP Congressmen live or die based on defence plants and bases in their districts. Hell, that's all the industry left there now (see point above), other than building trades and agribiz (which also likes globalism and Ukraine btw). Also, NO US flag officer* backs Russia. Serving officers (and revolving door retirees in the MIC) still command respect, even among the wingnuts. Finally, there's America's 51st State in the Mideast which will NOT be cut off, ever. Good luck tackling that one, Tucker. Didn't work out well for Buchanan. So whose interests will most (not all, sure) of these Reps *actually* vote when push comes to shove? You really don't think there's more than enough largesse out there to tip the balance as needed? * MacGregor retired at only LTC; he has been a Team B gadfly since 73 Easting. There is no Smedley Butler out there.

1. Before we blame all this on isolationist Deplorable Know Nothings, take a deep whiff of this.... https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/12/russia-sitrep-of-sorts.html This is the Old (nonwoke) Left Berniecrat blog, although they've chucked him too now. The founders keep quoting the same 8 highly erratic people (Ritter, MacGregor, Helmer, MofA, Mercouris, etc.) in rotation, while ruthlessly sanitising anyone who dares challenge Kremlin-origin alternative facts. Such as: - the UA is now losing a battalion a day in Bakhmut, and while lavishly equipped out of NATO's now rapidly depleting stocks they are incompetently/cowardly commanded and poorly fed, while medevac is at 1941 levels. Local logistics is a corrupt shambles; their rail net is shut down. The UA can't keep tank battalions operating, still less warplane squadrons. Their sole effective strike arm, HIMARS/arty is all Western-crewed and you know, those perfidious BoJo commandos..... - Azov, Kraken, et al., are mafiya-run SS skinhead militias who won't fight (unless trapped a la Mariupol). They force middle aged UA conscripts to stay in the line, when they aren't busy enforcing blanket 'OPSEC' on civilians, cleansing out Russian speakers or reselling foreign provided kit in Africa for big $$$. - Whole regions of Ukraine are depopulating now, as their freezing-in-the-dark people decamp to become (unwelcome) refugees across the energy strapped EU. Their economy (already a patchwork of mafiya fiefdoms) is now ceasing to function, for war or any other purpose. EU cities are filled with Ukrainian child prostitutes. Oh, and huge numbers have fled, or been driven out to mother Russia. (4th grade schoolyard logic: Well uhh... YOU are a poopyhead times 2!!!!!) There's a Russian guy who comments, and even he prods now and then at the Putin rahrah echo chamber and quickly realises he is walking on eggshells. No outside views are tolerated: that is all a Vast MSMDNC Conspiracy. 2. Once you're done there, go do a Ukraine search on pretty much any 'Left' journal or publication outside the Anglosphere (or nations bordering Russia who actually KNOW what they're dealing with). ...They make Tucker look 'fair and balanced'.

Oh FFS, here we go I never thought I'd miss Kettler.

Ho ho ho, Xmas memes for everybody!!!!