LongLeftFlank

My own daily Twitter routine, FWIW: 1. Andrew Perpetua, DefMon3 and HeliosRunner are the 3 sources I check first for credible, well-mapped battlefield sitreps. 2. ChrisO, Rob Lee and DanSpiun do great battlefield/troop analysis regularly. 3. NLWartracker and SpecialKhersonCat do good retweets. Dmitri is also a regular stop for translated Strelkov, Arestovich et al. 4. If I want to hear the latest RU copium trends, now and then I look at Zoka300. Chris_759 used to do good geolocations with a pro-Russian slant, but he's shut down now.

Yes, thanks to both of you guys (and others who have chimed in), end of a long work day here. In the end, as nobody here disagrees, the UA has got to break in and dismantle prepared Russian defences to liberate their lands and end the war in a 'sustainable' way. Their record to date in doing the former has been spotty (and the Russian record is WAAAAAY worse)... I expect they will indeed solve for it and have my own views on how. It seemed in the fall however, that they were training up and husbanding a new offensive force, described variously between 60k and 150k strong; this was long before Free the Leopards, or even UberBradleys, took over the discussion. Kind of a '1941 Siberian army out of nowhere' in reverse, these guys would unleash a winter storm. Maybe it's still sitting there, waiting for the hard freeze. But it does seem that a chunk of that reserve has had to be cycled in to relieve badly chewed up units on the Donbass front. Hence anecdotal comments from the more reliable OSINTers I follow about green UA troops having trouble coping with the high intensity combat. And visible (though small in the grand scheme) losses of positions that the UA would clearly rather hold. So it leads me to ask broader questions about the extent of that attrition, and the actual level of development and effectiveness of that new force. Again, this is independent of what kind of tanks they ride: I find that only marginally useful.

Vital US interests, until they aren't. https://www.duffelblog.com/p/u-s-tells-kurds-its-just-going-out-for-a-pack-of-cigarettes But we're kind of going sideways here, so maybe let's agree to disagree on analogies. ....Speaking of Vietnam, it's occurred to me that the mechanics for one of the few hex and counter wargames I still play, Nick Karp's brilliant Vietnam 1965-1975, might be well suited for representing the current conflict, with the essential combats at battalion level. Thinking less of the Pursuit or Pacification factors than the use of reinforcement points and commitment levels. Perhaps even a riff on the SVN command 'Effectiveness' chart, applied initially to the Ukes and then to the Russians. But ah well, if I only had the time.

....You clearly weren't alive during Vietnam, but your point is correct: analogies are always flawed, and easy to peck apart. But cut us some slack here, we are gamers and history geeks.

There's no hyperventilation here, mate. Know your enemy and know yourself, and in a hundred battles you will never be in peril. Notice there's two sides to that aphorism, and swapping Western for Ukrainian agency is the kind of paternalistic thinking that has been at the root of the previous Western failures. @Maciej Zwolinski made the critical point above; full marks to Zaluzhny and UA command for Ukraine's operational successes to date! but the conditions that made those possible cannot be relied upon going forward. 'Well then, they'll think of something else* cuz Zaluzhny is Supah Geeeenius' is kind of the mirror image of the 'Cuz Russia Sux' fallacy, which is a trap you yourself have rightly warned of. So let's not echo chamber here, nobody is rushing for the smelling salts but there is a limit to Ukrainian capability (Will is only a part of it) that is worth probing. * someone just suggested a 'backhand blow' near Torske, and I very much hope they're right! ...As to Ukraine being a far better strategic investment for the West than Iraq and A'stan, sure enough (I'm attempting to take that bet myself ). But OTOH, ask the Iraqi Kurds what courage, hardiness, loyalty and social cohersion did for them in the end, being surrounded by powerful enemies their US sponsors feared to offend too much. Or the Free Syria Army, the Marsh Arabs, Hmong and Montagnards before them.... Anyhoo, this is a far more interesting line discussion IMHO than still more Tanx n Krautz blahblahblah. Carry on schooling us (or ignore us if we're tiresome), but we will feel free to push back.

Again, you (and others here) keep trying to make this completely about Russia (and secondarily about Western support), while refusing to look closely at the capabilities of the third key actor here: the Ukrainians.... because, well, they've been plucky, and beyond that we can't really know or sumfink so shhh, best not to inquire. 1. Russia's inability to overrun Ukraine, or to mount strategic offensives (as opposed to Wagner's Verdun), is no longer the key question here. Attacking these days is Hard, (viz. 2000 pages of discussion). 2. Russia isn't going to fade away or bleed out on its own on its current trajectory. It can't take much more of Ukraine, but if not shoved out of what it has, it will keep digging in, keep up positional warfare and bombardments through 2023 while whining for a cease fire (in place). 3. By late 2023, Ukraine is 'Okrajina'. A dismal borderland, an armed camp having to man a hostile horseshoe shaped frontier of some 1000 miles, with some 15% of its 40M people exiles or under enemy occupation, another c.5% physically or mentally shattered, and another c.20% living within Russian tactical artillery range. No rebuilding, few non war-related jobs, no investment, no clear way to plan for the future. Wholly dependent on Western aid, vulnerable to corruption and factional gangsterism.

Unnütze Esser... Who's denazifying who again?

I think we're on the same page, mate, and that is more my point in bringing this stuff up than Roepcke style defeatism. I don't believe in a Ukrainian collapse; everybody in the country now knows the price of defeat all too well. ...But I also have little faith in a Panzerkiel of Western ubertanks, with or without supporting EW / CSIR / TAC and accompanying waves of combat sappers (Ukrainian dac cong) blasting and slashing a way through the Russian mine belts to Melitopol, or more likely the (partisan contested) heights between Melitopol and Mariupol. ...So, you're exactly right: it's logistics. Rot these bastards out first, before you hit them. Then eat them using technoed up assault infantry, selectively supported by AFVs. Snow eating fog. And you already know my best guess on that: kill all the trucks -- everything that moves on 2-3 axles, preferably to a depth of 30 - 50km. 24x7 switchblade swarms, ersatz grenade droppers, SOF minelayers, whatever. Make em walk. Starve their hedgehog front positions, so they can't properly overwatch their mine belts, or shift reserves. Note that given enough time to prepare, Ivan will try to do the same, using Chinese knockoff tech. They already have their own kamikaze drones in use. And if I'm China, I'd be happy to let someone else (deniably) find out the hard way how drone swarms work. Azerbaijan did it to Armenia in summer 2021, on a much smaller scale. **** Edit: Fortified belts. Don't assume this is all Potemkin zero rebar crapola or prefab mass grave slit trenches.

OK, now do Ukrainians. Because this is really just whataboutism and yet another 'just hold on and they'll Collapse' handwave. (nothing personal, it just tends to be the default response here) What about the 'just hold on' bit?

Sure, and that's been the party line here, just be patient, quote Hemingway, etc. And may you all be correct, and soon. But to repeat: Ukraine can only make progress with a deliberate offensive. Russia doesn't just crumble, it has to be pushed. But if they can't pull off that offensive with the Western wunderwaffen, then Putin eventually wins by default. There will be no coup, and no revolution. To date, it looks to me like Russia's ability to defend territory has *increased*, not decreased, on aggregate, since Feb 2022, even with regression to a (rocket-enhanced) 1940s infantry-centered army. Their frontline formations now seem adequately manned and far less AFV-tied, which was their fatal flaw for most of 2022. And as I and others predicted a year ago, they've ditched BTGs, and moved to a VDV grenadiers-and-mortars model, with 152mm (enough so that the Ukies have to assume it will arrive) on call. All in all, it seems they are getting better, not worse, at killing Ukrainians although that data is foggy, by design. It's only their jawdroppingly costly offensives that are clouding that. My read is that with a little quiet help from China on the basic tech side (already happening), they can keep this game up for another year. Unless Ukraine can transform the ground game again, but I don't think it's NATO mech that does that. IMHO.

Budget time. I saw that too, on ZeroHedge; they never miss a doomer take. Human civilisation should have all come crashing down no later than 2007, except the preppers stackin' the Phizz, 9mm and 30.06. And naval blockades bite multiple ways, quickly. Even if the US Navy won't enforce one at once, Lloyds sure as hell will. Nice fragile global supply chain you've got there, guv. Pity if sumfink... happened to it. And good luck absorbing all that grossly overbuilt 95% export oriented production capacity at home, Mr. Xi. Because Russia, Myanmar and Laos can't pay for it.

(Page 1987. Last mention of the actual battlefield situation in this thread: page 1980). UA may simply be in a defensive pause cuz regearing or cuz training or cuz mud or wev and then unleash their next stunning surprise. But an alternate thesis is that their best formations are getting badly hammered right now and cycling through. Even if Ivan is faring much worse. Fine, yielding the ruins of Bakhmut is irrelevant to the strategic situation. But regardless of where the lines are drawn, thousands of Ukrainians are getting shot up. Meanwhile, the Russians still show no signs of running short of meat or firepower. Not June peak shell volumes, but hardly shell famine either. No stream of surrenders of desperate, freezing mobiks. In short, no real signs of Collapse, but disturbing glimpses of strain on the Ukraine side in spite of the veil of secrecy. (this thread is worth a read. Defmon stays on top of the frontline situation) ....And last time I checked in mid Jan, Kreminna and Svatove were allegedly becoming untenable for Ivan. Not now, it seems. The UA has fallen back nearly to Torske. https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/01/27/i-have-now-been-in-three-wars/ The old snakeater's outfit looks like it's pulling from the woodlands as well. **** Initiative has passed back to Moscow, it looks like to me. Both sides are fighting Russia's war right now. While on the static fronts (land bridge), Ivan just keeps on digging and mining, (I'd guess) planning some kind of Zitadelle rematch to absorb a straight punch by the Western heavies. **** Here's Jack Watling in the Spectator (not gonna post the clickbaity German bashing headline, far too much of that here already). Here's the useful bit, the rest is the usual wailing about Western foot dragging: Russia is currently at the nadir of its capabilities, fielding poorly trained troops with older and more varied equipment, and with shortages of munitions. At the same time Russia has enough forces on the ground to mean that Ukraine can only make progress with a deliberate offensive. Russia can also mobilise and train more personnel [than Ukraine]. Russia’s defence industry is also increasing production, so that if Ukraine does not retain the initiative, it will become progressively harder to liberate territory.

This strays well off topic, so I'll limit my comment to the observation for our Ukrainian friends here that your society isn't as far off 'normal' as it may seem. Personal connections matter very much in life everywhere. Thailand and Malaysia were and remain deeply, deeply corrupt, yet they have been able to move to a standard of living and infra quality that exceeds some US counties within 25 years, the average working life for a single generation. I am seeing it happen again now in Vietnam and (here and there) in the Philippines and Indonesia. Foreign investment -- first Japan, and then a host of others -- was key to making this happen! Even the most corrupt officials soon realised they themselves were far better off in a rich country than a poor one. Ukraine is a logical location for the next stage of European economic growth. The human material has proved itself first rate and the infra will be rebuilt to standards North Americans may envy. Ukrainians will not lose the peace once they win it! Your best men (and not a few women) have paid for their rights and independence with their blood. Don't be afraid to demand respect from your officials, and to replace them if they do not serve the people's interests effectively. ...On the other hand, don't spend that newfound independence being crabs in a bucket. There will be wealthy people, some obscenely (and unfairly) so, but if you do things right, their wealth will be deployed right at home, not in Cypriot bank accounts. And there will be plenty of opportunity to go around for your daughters and sons. Here endeth my catechism.

A sign of the times that traditionally 'credentialed' think tank expert Kofman is now retweeting amateur 'Twitter Expert' DefMon3, who I believe is a retired Navy analyst. Oh look, page 1979. Time for some vintage Corrigan....

Oh well, I guess I'm not one of the cool kids. Find all the trucks. Find them all. Oh, and here's something for the tank crowd:

Nah, I took a break mate, please do carry on. Anyway, it's been 40 pages of tankstankstanks. The cranky Yukon intel guy and the outright caustic Kiwi gunner have it right. Kill all the trucks you can, as fast as you can, as deeply behind the enemy front as you can. Let's see how Ivan handles REALLY soldiering in 19th century conditions. Without horses....

He sent me this when my little border collie died.... Being a veterinarian, I had been called to examine a ten year old Irish wolfhound, named Belker. The dog’s owners, Ron, his wife Lisa and their little boy Shane were all very attached to Belker and they were hoping for a miracle. I examined Belker and found he was dying of cancer. I told the family there were no miracles left for Belker and offered to perform the euthanasia procedure for the old dog. Ron and Lisa told me that they thought it would be good for the four year old Shane to observe the procedure. They felt as though Shane might learn something from the experience. I felt the familiar catch in my throat as Belker’s family surrounded him. Shane seemed so calm, petting the old dog for the last time, that I wondered if he understood what was going on. Within a few moments, Belker slipped away peacefully. The little boy seemed to accept Belker’s transition without any difficulty or confusion. We sat together for a while after Belker’s death, wondering aloud about the sad fact that animal lives are shorter than human lives. Shane, who had been listening quietly, piped up, “I know why.” Startled, we all turned to him. What came out of his mouth next stunned me. I had never heard a more comforting explanation. He said, “People are born so that they learn how to live a good life – like loving everybody all the time and being nice, right?” The four year old continued, “Well, dogs already know how to do that, so they don’t have to stay as long.”

Sad. We did a lot of exchanges, along with @Combatintman , @sburkein the late 20teens around our historical Iraq monster city fights (Ramadi / Mosul). I came up with the scenario titles for As'sh Al Dababir (Hornets Nest) and Al Hutumah (the Crusher). As others here have noted, he was a genius modder and designer. He LOVED the Ramones, saw them live multiple times. From a 2017 PM exchange: "I'm a huge Ramones fan too, saw 'em live loads of times, mostly at the Hummingbird in Birmingham." LongLeftFlank Replied: June 10, 2017 "I saw them only once, but in the Holy of Holies: Meadowlands Stadium in New Jersey. Now you can sing "I'm the Crusher" over and over to yourself as you slowly go mad building out the city blocks. Then when the men in white coats come for you they'll assume you're the happy kind. I am reading Tom Sawyer to my daughter at bedtime, and my wife and I keep singing the guitar hook to the Rush song.... Sgt.Squarehead Replied: June 11, 2017 Lol.....I never really got into Rush in a big way (but I loved the cover of 'Fly By Night', painted it on my girlfri end's leather jacket. Godspeed, old friend! I'll look forward to catching up with you at the gaming tables at the feasting hall.

This and the related discussions are pure gold, many thanks. As to the antipersonnel mine discussion just now..... .... hydroplanes 45 degrees. Resume silent running.

Yeah, not my best look, apologies. I'll save you the trouble though and step away for a bit.

The amazing septaguenarian 6'5" Tennessee Rung Sat vet has dodged death yet again, if you can believe it (again, if this is a hoax, it's the most elaborate one since 'Devil's Guard!): https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/01/15/i-have-no-idea-how-a-guy-like-him-stays-alive/ The Mi-24 was coming-off an attack run, and the guy volunteered to pick us up. It took a bit of coordination, but we managed it. We were down to almost nothing to fight back with. As you know, I do not like helos in war zones.... The Russians are now hyper-actively looking for Lobos running behind their lines in this area. They have been burned by them a lot. But, one welcome change is we have a lot of firepower not terribly far away. Part 2: https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/01/16/it-did-blow-a-flame-jet-so-nobody-inside-survived/ Lobos it seems is what the Russians call Yook recon teams. I cannot verify that, just told it by a few folks who have been involved in interrogations. With the NLAW, I can take a guy with no AT experience at all, and in less than an hour he will be deadly to vehicles, including main battle tanks. ...For avoidance of doubt, the Russians absolutely can and will get hold of these in time. But meanwhile, this is yer snow eating fog, right here....

Here's a little break from the German-bashing. ...I keep getting urged to visit this place, but then I read utterly creepy stuff like this and it drops off my bucket list again. At least the Serbs and Croats are upfront about their ethnic cleansing habits. During A̶n̶s̶c̶h̶l̶u̶s̶s̶ Covid, Austrian schoolteachers were calling children to stand up in class to explain the socially harmful nature of their J̶e̶w̶i̶s̶h̶ ̶o̶r̶i̶g̶i̶n̶s̶ unvaxxed status. That may be a Tweetlibel, but somehow I don't think so.... They take petty authoritarianism in with their mothers' milk?

So if these caches now cannot be destroyed in place, how might you make them awkward to retrieve and distribute in a timely fashion to the weapons that are using them? What burns, apart from mobiks? [not even gonna bother with the obvious meme, the commentariat has it memorised]

"Hopelessly wrong on all counts."

"Mr. Picky would like to point out that...." this is in danger of veering into yet another doomed wishlist thread.