LongLeftFlank

The Ukes have showed a gift for the unexpected, but surprise isn't everything.* 1. In addition to continued Russian control keeping all of the lower Dnipr under permanent threat (ceasefire or no), it is also by far the hardest area for the Russians to supply, reinforce and fly air support missions to. 2. It's also steppelands (albeit now under cultivation) and so terrain generally favours the side that can dominate ranged firefights (e.g. Vuhledar). Increasingly, that seems to be Ukraine although there are some notable c0ckups. 3. The rear area is only 70 - 100kms deep before your back is to the Azov. There are relatively few ports and seaborne resupply is risky, plus the Russians need to offload cargo to trucks. Hint, their logistics suck with the possible exceptions of rail (no longer available to that area) and redeployments of combat units (the UA command has noted they're good at that, witness Kherson and actually north Luhansk). 4. Clearly the Russians are frantically digging in to try for a replay of Zitadelle 1943, to bog down the Ukie mech in defensive belt after defensive belt (in what was even more barren terrain). But are such 1940s positional defenses (without years to refine them which the UA had after 2014) really that decisive in an era of plentiful and powerful precision weapons, available down to squad level? when these positions aren't at least somewhat masked by woodlands or settlements/cityscapes? They are hiding in plain sight: see Brady Africk's Twiitter feed. * I might even argue that psychologically knowing exactly what is about to happen and yet still being powerless to avert it is even worse than being surprised. The Greek tragedians and Alfred Hitchcock well understood that effect.

I am reminded of Colin Powell's succinct quote, when asked what his plan was to eject the Iraqi army from Kuwait: First we're going to cut it off. And then we're going to kill it. So in the strategically vital (for both sides) Kinburn to Mariupol 'land bridge' corridor, it seems this should be doable, with precision long range artillery standing in place of USAF air power. Interdict, immobilise, isolate and then reduce the cauldrons, via overwhelming and systematic application of explosive. Among other things, this assumes the existence of adequately trained assault pioneer units. IMHO, the more ordinary infantry can be 'upskilled' into these roles (in addition to OJT of course), the better! And yes, I get that that doesn't happen overnight. ...Recalling the 1991 CNN footage of mass surrenders of disheveled Iraqis, it would also be useful for the Ukraine to engage in some intensive psyops aimed to induce bulk surrenders as the 'cauldron' intensifies. At a certain point, fear of certain death at the hands of the enemy overcomes fear of the 'sledgehammers', especially as the rear areas break down into chaos.

Good ol' Yookie ingenuity. Flying Schu mine. Cost per unit, £33. ...Of course this is the kind of kit I'm worried about China (quietly) supplying in bulk to the Russians. There's plenty Ivans who can figure this stuff out and the UA grunts are starting to report more and more effective drone bombings too. So counters need to be developed, stat. The catcher nets seem decently effective against the Lancets. For basic infantry protection, I continue to believe that some kind of body covering kevlar cloak/groundsheet/foxhole cover could provide decent (though not perfect) protection against simple frag grenades and 'cigarette packet' sized charges like this. Forcing the enemy to drop mortar bomb sized or HEAT charges from larger, more complex (and hittable) drones. ...Hmm, actually is that some kind of kevlar gorget plate the RU journo is wearing on his neck? Never seen that one.

Noted with thanks, we just ended up making fun of Americans anyway, as ya do.....

It does happen tho. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/12/06/the-remarkable-case-of-the-triple-agent-and-the-bombing-in-khost-afghanistan/ *** The 35th I.D. command nearly 'broke' and withdrew in a heavy forest battle in France when a German shell blew a bunch of the already overstressed staff into shreds. It required the direct intervention of 'Ol Blood 'n Guts to turn things around. I wish this had been in the movie.

Well, as Sun Tzu taught us, it's all about hoarding your Risk card sets, and bulking up in Iceland. Lol, I have a friend btw who was offered a job based in Singapore and had always assumed it was in China. When it was pointed out to him on a map, he said, "Wait, but that's 'Siam'. Why didn't you say that before?" And yes, he meant Risk.

Hmm, the 'Grownups in the Room' (ROFL) seem to think the global powers are playing the ancient Chinese game of.... Risk. ...Makes sense though, cuz there's that dotted line from Alaska to Kamchatka that Sara Palin was on about. **** And as a counterpoint, apologies for tossing the cat among the Europigeons again, but according to this 'scientific poll', it appears Germany could achieve Drang Nach Osten quite peacefully now.

Got yer snow-eating-fog right here, Ivan! For the first few seconds I was gaping at the TC fighting out of an open hatch, but soon realised it was the AAMG. 2. Splash one bogey.... 3. #KillAllTheTrucks 4. Relic. 5. Drone films drone striking a footbridge....

Seems Wagner has a foothold in the 'Vostokmash' shops in the AZOM complex anchoring the north end of Bakhmut. Suriyak, as noted, is fairly credible as pro-RU goes... Video (no idea what feed this is, ACHTUNG)

P.S. Water-filled Huge Crater terrain object, s.v.p! Place in Mud tile for full bogging effect. P.P.S. Prefab 6 man bunker. Once dug in and covered in 1.5m of packed earth, can shrug off all but a direct 152mm hit. (My grandparents in north London had an Anderson shelter in their garden, lightly used. Wouldn't have saved them from the V2 that landed at the bottom of the street, killing a schoolmate of my Dad). (From Dmitri's feed)

Yeah, saw that but didn't investigate further because the map was so minimalist. Like something out of Pandemic. Have you tried the game? Boring map aside, it seems to play at divisional scale, which I maintain isn't going to tell a player much about what's distinct in this war that differentiates it from the 1941-44 battles fought across this same area (by larger forces). Or maybe you feel differently?

Looking beyond Bakhmut? Kramatorsk by, what, Christmas? ...of course, if you live in Chuck Pfarrer promo world, the Ukes are about to retake Krasna Hora. Then on back to Soledar. P.S. The more of these clips I see, the more I believe losses are now at rough parity in the city fight. It's hide and seek with guns, and it appears neither team particularly outguns the other at this point, in terms of small arms, armour or (usable) arty. Except for the AZOM complex, it looks like the redoubts that commanded broad fields of fire at the outskirts are now pierced. Time to bring in the Boston Dynamics slaughterbot dogs?

Here is a hex wargame dealing with modern conflict in Ukraine. 'Opaque War: Ukraine 2014.' The map is very tidy and crisp, but also quite non-granular (may I say, it, dull) in terms of terrain, like most of the hex wargame maps I've browsed. Your big counter stacks fight their big counter stacks, roll dice, take casualties. Not much insight into the battlefield dynamics or the value of terrain (fortified cities and factories?) here, at least not in evidence from the map. I mean, is this going to give you any insight at all over why, or how, you'd contest Bahmut (Artemivsk)? It's just a dot in 'open terrain', with a road.

Spring Prelude: Kharkov 1942. Superbly done topo map here! this is probably the perfect hex scale for what I have in mind. Very fine mapwork here, although could do without the little sunburst icons.

Ha ha, we are birds of a feather over here mate! Here I am over here, gabbling away crazily to myself. Thanks for the company lol. ...Here's some music to browse maps by (shh, don't tell Kraze, I don't want to hear about how Mussorgsky was some kind of rabid orcish ideologue)

Other interesting maps: 'Duel for Kharkov'. Similar coverage to Lost Victory above. Kharkov Battles: Before and After Fall Blau. Beautiful 2021 mapmaking, and includes eastern Luhansk areas. Could be a contender for a 'Battles for Donbas' submap. But hexes still a little large for a battalion scale wargame, which I continue to think would make the most interesting game.

Candidate 4. Nick Karp's 'Vietnam: 1965-75' I've mentioned this over on the Big War Thread, but large parts of this ruleset and countermix could be ported over to a Ukraine game. Specifically the replacement points system for casualty reductions (including modified Draft and allied Commitment levels), ZOCs, holding/patrol/search and destroy ops, air/airmobility points, Rangers, supply rules (via railways instead of the Trail), and a number of other features of what is one of the only hex wargames I still play at this scale. Battalion scale is exactly right. Pursuit rules, which play such a large role in the (asymetrical) VN game would matter less here, although they could still play a role in the initial war phase. At the risk of knocking over some hero figures, you could even apply the ARVN command loyalty and (in)effectiveness rules, initially to the Ukes and later to the Russians. Obvs the map isn't going to be much help, although you'd want to add Cultivated hexes in place of 'Clear Terrain' to much of a modernised Ukraine map; think those lethal checkerboards of fields, tree lines and hamlets.

Candidate 3. AH Kriegspiel!!!! one of the most disrespected wargames ever. But I've also owned it since age 11, so I have a soft spot. ...Now stay with me here; if you scale down the units from division to battalion and add the special rules for unit step reductions, replacement points and artillery units, you could get a game that reflects the actual tactical tradeoffs on smallish sectors of front tolerably well. https://boardgamegeek.com/filepage/130284/advanced-kriegspiel-theory https://boardgamegeek.com/filepage/129968/kriegspiel-artillery-brigade-4-2-4-red-and-black-c Especially with the diceless 'rock-paper-scissors' card draw approach to combat resolution. The mapboards, obviously, aren't helpful. So we'd need to swipe some from another game.

Candidate 2. Lost Victory: Manstein at Kharkov 1943. Map only covers Kharkov - Stalino (Donetsk) - Zaporizhe, but hex scale is battalion (BTG!!) frontage, a scale more likely to deliver interesting and meaningful tactical combats, with the right ruleset and countermix.... Another plus, interesting terrain. A lot of the older Eastern Front monster games (e.g. Drang Nach Osten) are pretty 'blank', with only rivers and the odd strip of mountains and forests breaking up the monotonous hinterland of white hexes.

Candidate 1. Ukraine '43. Biggest plus: mapboard covers all of the current front (unless you buy the Von Luttwak 'right hook through Pripet' theory rofl). Hexes are brigade frontages. So my question would be: at this 'grand strategy' scale, would this be a fun game? instructive? or another one of those interminable yawners, with 1 turn played per afternoon, long lines of counters stalemated along the front, and only ended once the cat gets into the gaming room. https://bigboardgaming.com/ukraine-43-turn-5-6/

(posted here, as it's a little too much diversion from the Mother of All Threads) So as the thread says, which games / rulesets and maps would be best / easiest to modify for a playable and insightful simulation of the current war? Discuss! Add! Argue! Impugn!

Know then, O Last Knight of the Late, Expired and Ceased To Be Peng Thread (oof! speaking of shambling decaying corpses, someone crack a window eh?), you have not even *begun* to plumb the depths of my ADD. ...So it would be Wise to join me on a sharp detour up the obsidian spire of old school hex wargaming. Old Friend. See separate CMBS thread, heeyah

That explanation actually makes more sense than any other, thanks, although a certain leap of faith is required, even for some plugged in think tank folks in DC. Clearly, as @Haiduk has noted lately, staying the course is hard for the Ukrainians on the ground as well, especially the frontline guys. ...This all also highlights, yet again, the dangers of letting (perceived) body count or 'red zones' on a map drive decisions. War is hell.

WRT Ukrainian force generation (and I am not in fact as pessimistic on this as it may sometimes appear), one thing that disturbs me is that: (a) if we accept UKR wants to hold Fortress Bakhmut for symbolic as well as sound military reasons; and (b) has bolstered its defences with some of the core units it is husbanding and building; (c) BUT they are losing the hills and hamlets that flank the city and shield its LOCs ...then where are the large scale counterattacks to eject the Russians before they consolidate these gains? The attempts we've seen to date have been small beer.