Holien

That is an excellent article from Forbes.  Proportionally is a tricky and slippery concept.  It is also highly subjective.  For example, if an IDF CO has intel that a Hamas commander is in a building with civilians.  What is the real military advantage of taking out a Hamas commander and a few fighters?  Now if that same Hamas commander is in a C4ISR node within that building the equation changes.  If that C4ISR node is critical to Hamas’ rocket program it changes again.  There will be a point where taking out that entire building and accepting civilian casualties is a righteous (and legal) shoot.
My concern at this point is that is IDF appears to be taking out around 10-20 building per hour.  Hamas does not have that many high military value targets to begin with.  The idea that these are all righteous begins to strain with every passing day.  It brings into question whether Israel is applying the principle legally.

Russian TG claims UKR troops landed and seized positions on Velykyi Potyomkin island south from Kherson. So, Russian milblogger assumes UKR forces aimed on Hola Prystan'. 

ISW went further and clamned whole island (this big semi-round one in the middle divided by small river) now under UKR control, but this is obvious exaggregation

In Krynky area UKR forces repelled next assault of Russians. 
Video of 35th marines brigade
"Magyar birds" except four tanks and about dozen of light armor for yesterday also destroyed Russian BTR with mounted RP-377 "Loraindit" EW system for SIGINT and supseession of UHF radio communications. Three FPVs were wasted to destroy it. Total for 10th of Dec were destroyed 4 tanks, 2 BMDs, 4 BTRs and supressed/destroyed 28 of 31 enemy FPV drones 
Russian TG clarified why general Teplinskiy established "officer assault detachemnts" - this is a method of "upbringing" for false reports about situation. Lower commanders scare to be punished for bad news, so reprort "all good, we push teh enemy", but instead situation completely different.  So, platoon and company commanders now have three options: to be punished for lying, to be pinished for truth, to be killed in next assault on Krynky
 

I can't find this screen again - Russian miliblogger writes Russian troops in Krynky area complain that Iranian shells have completely different ballistic features, but there are no firing tables for them. Also many shells have the same problem as N.Korean - enough big deviation in powder masses of charge. So, most of shoots even with equal settings lead to significant undershoots or overshoots far beyond standard dispersion ellipse

Today at about 4:00 of morning Kyiv was attacked by 8 missiles, flying of ballistic trajectories. Launches were conducted from Bryansk oblast. Air raid alarm was turn on already after first explosions. But our Patriot crews are top - all eight missiles were shot down over SE and SW outskirts of the city. 
 
Fragments of shot down missiles damaged several cottages, reportedly four people were slighly injured. Power substation was damaged by fragments, causing cutting of power in more than 100 private houmsteads. 
The type of missiles is clarifying - more likely this can be S-400 due to massive salvo. 
 

I may buy this for the Hamas fighters and some true supporters.  But I am sure the daily stream of bloody children being hauled into barely functioning ERs are not ready to “welcome martyrdom”.  Their parents don’t seem on board with the idea either.  We have roughly 2 million Palestinians in Gaza and high estimates had Hamas at around 40k - those ranks may have swelled as people get on board with self-defence angles (frankly if I was on the receiving end of what the IDF has been throwing and my family was being pushed into a smaller and smaller area along with the other 2 million, I would likely pick up a gun too).
Hamas is a very small minority.  Now it may have had broad public support but even active support of a terror group is not a capital crime.  I am pretty sure the vast majority of Palestinians want to live, and live better than they have.  What and how that could be is well beyond me.  My comments are directed at the IDFs prosecution of this war and the LOAC.  Regardless of cultural norms (and in reality they really are not that different) the LOAC applies.  
Like AQ and ISIL, Hamas needs to die.  To do that they need to be pulled from the people and their idea needs to die - that is how terror organizations are destroyed.  That is a long term campaign heavy on intelligence, inter-agency spaces and SOF military actions.  Doing it with a heavy conventional force is not the normal way to go about this.  Doing it through deliberate systemic destruction on civilian homes and infrastructure with the intent that they never come back is a war crime under international law.

If a party signed onto the conventions then they apply to every conflict they will find themselves within.  This would be why even the IDF have not started using chemical weapons.  As to your list:
"Level a city that produces vicious terrorist by the 1000s"....well yes.  There are no provisions to wipe out an entire city just because it produces threats.  You can target legitimate military targets in that city but wholescale destruction is against the law.  This would be why the US did not simply carpet bomb Fallujah or any other Iraqi city in the 00's.  We also did not do the same in Afghanistan.  The law says we play be the rules even when the other side does not.  "It is a war", yes that is my point entirely.  WW2 was not a "good" example of how we wanted to fight wars.  I know we have a lot of WW2 fans on a wargaming site but the consensus at the end of that was was that things got way out of hand.  So the international community, the same one that created the state of Israel, elected to stand up the LOAC framework.
At this point if I was an IDF general I suspect I would be fired for moving far too slowly because I would be looking at very deliberate tactical operations that I could defend at The Hague.  I would remove and an all troops who could be considered emotionally compromised from a kill chain and then make damned sure I had a lawyer in the JOC for every major shoot.  I would not devolve authority for airstrikes below my level.  I would have some pretty strict interpretations on the ROEs and enforce them.  When engaged I would not simple throw HE at a problem.  I would try a scalable approach to prove I did everything I could to reduce civilian casualties.  None of this is "pie in the sky".  Hamas is not a conventional military.  It is very light and insurgency like. Hamas is not going to counter-attack.  We have been fighting insurgencies for 20 years and not once employed what we see in Gaza right now.  It is miserable and slow work but there we are.  A lot of terrorist base are also not suicidal.  So isolation and time can play.  If you take fire return it in kind.  Nothing wrong with overmatch, but it needs to be scaled.  Take fire from a floor, return it.  Even hit it with a tank round.  I may kill any civilians in the same room as the terrorist, but I do not drop the whole freakin building unless I know htere are no civilians inside.
Why I would care so much about this is because I know my country has to live in this world once this is over.  My code of ethics, beaten into me since basic, says I will be righteous in delivering violence and committing homicide on behalf of my people.  If I cannot do that, then I should not be in the job.  It may take longer and take risks.  If I have soldiers who would rather they live and 20 Palestinian children need to die to make that happen, I want them out of my outfit.  I would relentlessly pursue and kill Hamas fighters and anything supporting them, but I am not going to kill civilians indiscriminately.  It may take years of slow steady pressure.  The political crisis in Israel because the PM and cabinet completely sh#t the bed on security is not my problem.  Waging the war legally is.
Then I would be looking for the civilian agencies to support the humanitarian fight and ensure we get between the civilians and the fighters.  Again, long hard and thankless work. And it may even fail.  But that is better then waging a war of extermination on a bunch of innocent people in the long run. [Not saying that is what Israel is doing definitively, but as a senior IDF leader it would be my primary concern.]  I have fought in an insurgency war and this is the gig.  We did not slaughter people when we took casualties, we went after the bomb makers.  We went after the leadership and we tried to get in between them and the people.  We even failed in the long run (less tactics, more politics) but we came away about as righteous as we could.  I did not shame myself or my people - and we kept the bad guys busy for a few years, so saved some lives there...I will take that. 
So slow, painful and legal is the alternative.  There is no fast, painless and legal in a war like this. 

Well this is the rub about the whole thing.  Proportionality is a core concept in the Law of Armed Conflict. There are no shortcuts to reduce your own casualties or for convenience.  Collateral damage is accepted but it must be demonstrated that every reasonable mitigation was taken to reduce it. 
So you get a sniper in a building firing at you.  And you know there are civilians either trapped or being held in that building.  Well you have a suit of options.  A counter-sniper program.  Use of a lower yield weapon such as an ATGM or PGM.  A tank HE round.  Or, yes even a ground assault and clearance.  Firing a 2000 pound JDAM into the base of the building to drop it knowing there may be a hundred civilians inside to take out a small group of militants would need a legal defence to show that no other options were available.  There is the tactical situation and other considerations of course.  
Now the IDF may even be cycling through these and have developed a reasonable mitigation approach.  What is suspicious is the level of destruction and its pace.  Based on the speed of damage and how widespread it is I am willing to bet we are seeing shortcuts being taken.  Now that should trigger an outside investigation - in fact UN offices are already calling for it.  Further, willful destruction of infrastructure with intent to make it uninhabitable is also a war crime (something the UN has also highlighted).
None of this has anything to do with the horrendous things Hamas did illegally to start this war.  In fact the LOAC was specifically put in place to avoid revenge escalations or unlawful retaliation. None of this is “pro-Israel” or “pro-Hamas”, that is frankly a distraction being exploited by both sides.  It is “pro-international law”.  Things have gotten so bad that the UNSC voted 13-1, with the UK abstaining.  To call for a slow down on this thing.  US vetoed and supplied more tank shells.  The optic now is that the rules apply to everyone but the US and its designated allies.
Imagine for a second of this was Russia or China doing the exact same thing?  Oh wait, we don’t have to imagine it, we have seen it in Ukraine for almost 2 years.  And we all shouted loudly (and correctly) that it was a warcrime.  But when Israel does that…and it is starting to look worse in some cases…”well that is just combat”?
Take the emotion out of it and try to apply a strictly legal lens.  I cannot even say definitely that what the IDF is doing has crossed the line.  I can say that is it suspicious and likely needs further investigation.  Has the IDF announced it will allow in military observers from the UN?  Has it demonstrated righteous shoots?  Have they announced a multi-billion dollar fund to rebuild Gaza once this is over?  Not that I have seen or heard.
We either apply the law universally or throw it out and we can go all Genghis.  But I am pretty sure no one is going to like that answer either.
 

During several previous days Russian 104th air-assault division lost in attempts to push UKR torops from Krynky bridgehead about company set of BMDs. At least half of them were BMD-4M. According to Russian TG four vehicles were lost because of remotely mined ways.
Just several pictures, taken from "Magyar birds" videos (indeed on their videos number of hit BMDs slaightly more)
This BMD-4M stuck on road embankment for unknown reasons and was hit by ATGM. Further on the road inthe forest destroyed BTR-82A is seen.
Completely disassembled BMDs on the road in Krynky
Russian TGs sharply criticized methods of general Teplinskiy in Krynky. 
This one say that contrary to official propaganda and posts of some milbloggers, "six-weeks Teplinskiy's battle for Krynky" turned out as a "cauldron" not for Ukrainians, but more for Russians, because during this time Ukrianian garrison in Krynky, which maximum at one time had 2.5 companies forced Russian troops to withraw for replenishment 70th motor-rifle division, 61st naval infantry brigade was replenished by three companies of new personnel, 104th air-assault division was thrown to the battle, but has significan losses in vehicles.
   
Several Russian TG channels claim Teplinskiy has been establishing so-called "shock officers detachments" - the same assault units, like "Storm", but of officers. 
The scale of this phenomena is so significant, that even milbloggers write about this so far. Everybody, who at least in general makes sense in military affairs understand this is catastrophe. This is a collaps of control system and command vertical in troops groupment "Dnepr" 

Just what China and Russia wanted.  Now what comes nexts gets to splash ol Uncle Sam too.  The US may have just voted to keep warcrimes going - pending investigations etc.  Which technically may make the US complicit in the commission of these crimes.  Of course Putin did the same thing.  But that was the entire point of the resolution.  The narrative will be “Oh when Russia does it we have a warcrime.  When the US does it, we have collateral damage.”
Yeesh what a mess.

Chow = food/lunch
Clearing barrel = when you enter a base you go through a process of unloading your weapons, ensuring they're unloaded, and proving to others they're unloaded. Usually it's routine - remove the magazine, cock the weapon, inspect the chamber, fire the action in a safe direction which is usually a sand filled barrel to trap any errant rounds. Sometimes its embarrassing if you get the sequence mixed up, which seems to be what happened here - the negative peer pressure that lands on you for doing that is intense, and lasts a long time. That's because occasionally its fatal if you get mixed up AND neglect to point it in a safe direction.
Getting it wrong is due to laziness, extreme fatigue, and always poor discipline.
 

No need to tuck tails.  It was a solid point/question.  This is a highly charged subject.
“What does Israel do now?”  Well an immediate response was required, no getting past that.  But CT/CVEO work when done with precision takes time and resources.  So the trick would have been a balancing act between overt high profile strikes to keep the public feeling safe.  And a rapid acceleration in a deliberate CT campaign to dig out Hamas from the Palestinian people.
Or if one is going to go all full conventional, then demonstrate restraint and precision wherever you can.  If terrorist go into a building…raid the building by hand, don’t drop a JDAMs on it.  There are munitions and systems that can kill with much less collateral.  It will be slower and you will take casualties but you may avoid the pitfalls of the situation they are stuck in.  One must have an air of righteousness even if the war itself is dirty.
Beyond that, I honestly think Israel was screwed the second the attack came off.  Arming everyone in the communities around the Gaza Strip (eg local militias).  Making each home a fortress Afghan style.  Redundant manning along the fence line with ready forces.  It all costs, but compared to where they are now it would have been a pittance.  I do not for a second blame Israel for the 7 Oct attacks - that is a narrative being picked up by some.  Nothing Israel had done with respect to Gaza deserved the horror stories coming out of that. 
There may have been a political solution to the Palestinian Problem but that is over now.  Israel is off the hook and losing control of the larger strategic narratives.  It is in effect risking doing more damage to itself than Hamas ever could.  The real answer would be to get the Palestinian people to reject Hamas itself - I am no expert on what that would look like.  But now that ship has sailed.  My sense is that Israel needs to define an endstate in this war that does not look like 2 million Palestinians being driven into the desert to die.

Who on earth is claiming what Hamas did was not a terrorist action?!  It absolutely was, meeting just about every version of the definition out there.  Why they conducted the attacks as part of a larger strategy is the point of discussion.  To my mind it looks more and more like they did so to induce the Israeli response we are currently seeing.  A suicidal action at its core to achieve larger strategic objectives.  The most primary is the isolation of the state of Israel - regionally is low hanging fruit, globally is a possibility.  I do not think Hamas "knew" the IDF would commit war crimes, but it was very likely in the calculus.  In the end it does not matter.  No where in international law - the governing legal framework for warfare in almost every state, including Israel- is there room for "stepping off the bus".  A nation will not and cannot be given license to commit war crimes just because the other side "does it".  In fact, legally, I am not even sure Hamas can be held accountable for "war crimes" as no state of war existed between the two parties and Hamas is a non-state organization.  As a terrorist group they fall under criminality under most frameworks, which entitles Israel to pursuit and prosecution, not full scale war. 
That all said, given the size and capability of Hamas, we are in an ISIL situation where conventional warfare can be applied; however, it must follow the LOAC.  The warcrime in question here, with respect to Israel is not even the broad civilian casualties - they may even be able to justify all of these targets (I doubt it, but "innocent until proven guilty" etc).  The war crime in question here is the massive destruction of civilian infrastructure, well beyond what would reasonably be needed to pursue and engage Hamas.  As has been noted more buildings have been destroyed than the high-water mark estimates of actual Hamas forces.  More simply there could have been a single Hamas fighter in every building targeted and, depending on which estimate employed, would have killed Hamas twice over already.
The crime here is essentially making Gaza uninhabitable.  This (according to the UN) crosses the line to ethnic cleansing.  Palestinians won't be going back to large areas of Gaza because humans can no longer live there in numbers, because all of the human supporting infrastructure has been destroyed.   Israel can hand out fuel, food and diapers all day long but until someone turns the power, water and internet back on, 2 million people cannot really live there.  Making that happen is a war crime by international law definitions.  Israel will have to make one helluva case to prove these actions were 1) required and 2) proportional under the LOAC.  More bluntly put...these actions look and feel unrighteous but full judgement will have to await investigation.
As to "What could Israel do strategically?"  Good lord that is a loaded question.  I am not even going to touch the political (2 state) options.  All I can say is that with respect to Defence and Security, this failure is catastrophic on a historic scale.  The IDF and Israeli security forces are some of the best in the world within their region.  They very likely had assets in Gaza, within Hamas itself - no self-respecting intelligence service would not.  They had all the ISR pointed at Gaza.  They owned the fence-line on the buffer zone.  They owned the communities that were attacked.  This attack, on this scale and low level of sophistication should not have been possible.  So "what could Israel do?"  Well not get complacent and leave holes Hamas could literally drive a battalion through while ignoring intelligence signals.  They could ensure that a clear and present threat to their nation and people was not lost sight of.  The after action on Oct 7th is going to get bloody and likely cost a lot of people their jobs and legacies.  
As to the rest of the "Palestinian problem", I am sure books will be written about this for years.  The only thing I will say is that Israel had exactly one job with respect to that problem...do not let what is happening now, happen.  Do not put yourself in a position where the only way to re-establish security of Israel is dependent upon the removal of all Palestinians.  It puts you in dilemma spaces from hell, and carries a very real risk of Israel being accused of genocide - and we all see the absolute tragic irony. 
I am not sure what it will take for the US to withdraw support.  The US appears mostly interested in keeping this thing in a box and widening into a full-on Arab Israeli war.  What I am surprised has not happened is a UNSC resolution for an international intervention into the region, backed by China and Russia.  This would put the US in a position where they will have to veto that resolution...essentially ensuring the sh#t sprays on them as well. 
Are we having fun yet? 

I have been following this elsewhere and I did some digging today for some stats..
The number of attacks made by the IDF between October the 7th to November the 1st is reported at 12,000 individual targets.

That’s 24 days to unleash the equivalent of 25,000 tonnes

 
Or 500 targets a day…

 
Or slightly over 20 an hour

 
So now think about the ISR (Intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance) required to plan and carefully select each of those targets and the logistics behind the scenes to agree it is a valid target and provide notification (if done) to those living at the intended target area.

 
I have been concerned all along that there is no way in hell that with such a bombing campaign that it is being done in a careful manner that those supporting the IDF say it is done. I.e. We alert targets, we only hit valid military targets etc.…

 
The proof is in the sheer number of civilian deaths and the sheer wanton destruction of the whole of Gaza.

 
The IDF has pretty good ISR after all the area is slightly smaller than the size of the Isle of White but with a population density of roughly 21,000 people per square mile and an overall population of nearly 2 million people. Those people have no other place to go and the IDF control all the borders and sea and even in effect controls the crossing with Egypt as they have the right to stop it from opening and monitor everything using it.

 
Yet I seriously question that any military has enough ISR to accurately select and initiate attacks 20 every hour.

 So the following gives an idea of how it is being managed back at the IDF HQ
Some investigative work by Israeli citizens who are appalled at what is going on we are now getting an insight to what is really happening…

We are now finding out that to undertake such a feat the IDF are using AI and the parameters are not great…


 
Owen Jones is doing a good job of exposing this and he interviews an Israeli investigative journalist who has been working with IDF whistle blowers.

 
https://youtu.be/mIbxF7GXfHs?si=IDXi5eQpEMpyP8y7

 


The more detailed article he is talking about and published, worth reading in full I think to understand the AI generation of targets. https://www.972mag.com/mass-assassination-factory-israel-calculated-bombing-gaza/


 
Some of the key points if you don’t want to watch the interview or read the article written by an Israeli citizen.


 

 

 

 
 
There are 4 categories of target the first two are absolutely right and valid targets IMO. and the last two are IMO not valid targets and being used to collectively punish Gaza.


 

 
So these targets to be valid for the IDF could just be a junior member of Hamas living in the tower block, they might give an order to evacuate the tower block then they level it. For all the other families living in the Tower block it is Hamas fault because they had an apartment there. For people who could not flee as there is nowhere safe to go they end up dead and I would say that is not a valid target because it is more about collective punishment. If Russia targetted a tower accomedation block because 1 member of the Ukraine military lived in it, would we be happy with that?
Or a war crime....


 
 

I have been following this elsewhere and I did some digging today for some stats..
The number of attacks made by the IDF between October the 7th to November the 1st is reported at 12,000 individual targets.

That’s 24 days to unleash the equivalent of 25,000 tonnes

 
Or 500 targets a day…

 
Or slightly over 20 an hour

 
So now think about the ISR (Intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance) required to plan and carefully select each of those targets and the logistics behind the scenes to agree it is a valid target and provide notification (if done) to those living at the intended target area.

 
I have been concerned all along that there is no way in hell that with such a bombing campaign that it is being done in a careful manner that those supporting the IDF say it is done. I.e. We alert targets, we only hit valid military targets etc.…

 
The proof is in the sheer number of civilian deaths and the sheer wanton destruction of the whole of Gaza.

 
The IDF has pretty good ISR after all the area is slightly smaller than the size of the Isle of White but with a population density of roughly 21,000 people per square mile and an overall population of nearly 2 million people. Those people have no other place to go and the IDF control all the borders and sea and even in effect controls the crossing with Egypt as they have the right to stop it from opening and monitor everything using it.

 
Yet I seriously question that any military has enough ISR to accurately select and initiate attacks 20 every hour.

 So the following gives an idea of how it is being managed back at the IDF HQ
Some investigative work by Israeli citizens who are appalled at what is going on we are now getting an insight to what is really happening…

We are now finding out that to undertake such a feat the IDF are using AI and the parameters are not great…


 
Owen Jones is doing a good job of exposing this and he interviews an Israeli investigative journalist who has been working with IDF whistle blowers.

 
https://youtu.be/mIbxF7GXfHs?si=IDXi5eQpEMpyP8y7

 


The more detailed article he is talking about and published, worth reading in full I think to understand the AI generation of targets. https://www.972mag.com/mass-assassination-factory-israel-calculated-bombing-gaza/


 
Some of the key points if you don’t want to watch the interview or read the article written by an Israeli citizen.


 

 

 

 
 
There are 4 categories of target the first two are absolutely right and valid targets IMO. and the last two are IMO not valid targets and being used to collectively punish Gaza.


 

 
So these targets to be valid for the IDF could just be a junior member of Hamas living in the tower block, they might give an order to evacuate the tower block then they level it. For all the other families living in the Tower block it is Hamas fault because they had an apartment there. For people who could not flee as there is nowhere safe to go they end up dead and I would say that is not a valid target because it is more about collective punishment. If Russia targetted a tower accomedation block because 1 member of the Ukraine military lived in it, would we be happy with that?
Or a war crime....


 
 

Follow up to discussion yesterday:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67565872
I am not sure that the LOAC says about deliberately making an area uninhabitable.
Edit:  The answer is “yes”
https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/war-crimes.shtml
For the purpose of this Statute, ‘war crimes’ means: 
Grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, namely, any of the following acts against persons or property protected under the provisions of the relevant Geneva Convention:  -Wilful killing -Torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments;  -Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;  -Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly;  -Compelling a prisoner of war or other protected person to serve in the forces of a hostile Power;  -Wilfully depriving a prisoner of war or other protected person of the rights of fair and regular trial;  -Unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement;  -Taking of hostages.

UKR forces hit fuel depot in Donetsk. Three days ago the same facility was hit with drone in Luhansk
Likely not only a fuel, sounds of detonating small-caliber ammo are heard too
 

The Republicans are essentially a revolutionary movement at this point and are going way beyond what was considered acceptable (i.e. politics ends at the waters edge) in the era of consensus. That said, as you note above, the border has been hurting Democrats politically while there hasn't been an easy way for Democrats to address it. If, perforce, the White House must accept a harsh border law to safeguard the global order, you can quite easily envisage a Dobbs situation where the politics starts running in the opposite direction. 
It is my hope that the WH can wrangle out a deal from the most irresponsible opposition in my lifetime in American politics. Ukraine aid is at best 50/50 right now. 

All Armies have a distinct culture. This should not be a controversial proposition. The British Army is different to the French Army which is different to the German Army which is different to the US Army. Hell, the British Army is different to the armies of Australia, Canada and New Zealand despite their mutually shared history. For simple examples; look at an army's field rations, since food is a pretty strong expression of culture, or the cut and tailoring of an army's field and dress uniforms. Doctrine is also part of the difference, and even within NATO there are variations in doctrine, because doctrine too is a reflection of culture.
Ukraine has done a pretty impressive job at adopting a sort of generic smeared-out "Western" or "NATO" doctrine, but it isn't their doctrine in part because it doesn't reflect their culture. As far as I can tell from this distance, old Soviet doctrine remains a pretty strong influence on the Ukrainian Army, along with the stuff they've - uniquely among European armies - had to learn since 2014 and especially since 2022.
Also, I wasn't comparing the Ukrainian Army to the ANA. I was noting that a one-size-fits-all here's-some-left-over-kit now-go-fight-like-us approach to building foreign military capability doesn't have a great track record. This too should not be a controversial proposition. Afghanistan has some incredible warriors and military commanders, and their culture is clearly able to build a fully capable and competent military. The unfortunate thing is that we only really realised that in mid-2021 as they were destroying everything that we'd tried to build over the past 20 years, by fighting the way they wanted to.

Well, they've sent expeditions to Angola, Somalia, Cambodia, Yugoslavia, CAR, Congo, and Yemen. They're also working towards NATO membership which would implicitly mean being expected to be capable of sending an expedition to eastern Europe, at least.
So, no. I'm not kidding.
But let's flip this around; why does Spain need a defence force - who're you planning to invade? Portugal? France? Andorra? Great Britain? Morocco?

Yup, that tracks.  US/West came up with an obsolete solution that was only going to work in narrow context, definitely not this war.  A “single concentrated” strike would have been seen well ahead of time by the Russians and countered.  More mass just means more casualties - the RA has proved this repeatedly.  Western planners have no combat experience in this sort of war either.
Ukraine tried a more dispersed approach akin to what they did in Kherson (after trying the concentrated method a few times).  Which simply cannot pull together enough combat power to crack the defences.   Further they made the mistake of moving towards “western mechanized” when it was likely clear that is not what they needed, nor would it work under these conditions.
US/West designed and supported a solution for them.  Ukraine tried to use a solution for them but equipped and trained for the western one.  And they lost time trying to equip and train for it as well. They ended up with a Frankenstein’s Monster while the RA sat back and waited.
Third Way: focused corrosive warfare.  So rather than spending billions on making western mechanized forces, spend that effort and money on - UAS/UGV, Deep strike and infantry…lots of infantry.  Do corrosion and then infiltration…deep infiltration.  During the battle for Kyiv the UA had light infantry very deep into RA lines.  So deep they could be called SOF.  Focus on air superiority below 2000 feet.  Go semi/full autonomy hybrid on unmanned.  And then hit the Russian system everywhere all at once.  You are still going to lose people but your chances are better.  Russians do not like being surrounded and the inexperienced troops they have are more likely to bolt once UA infantry start showing up all around them.  Once the RA starts to buckle, then do the mech thing to pursue/breakthrough.
And here’s the, thing I am not even sure that will work but it is probably better than what they tried.
Edit : [dear gawd, I think I just signed onto LLFs Ranger Bns idea]

Guys, I have a problem with forum sign in on my PC. I can sign in on my phone w/o problems, but on PC I have notification about wrong name, email, password, though I changed password and deleted old cookies. 
While I will figure out what's happened I can only read the forum or sometime write small messages, because it's completely awkwardly for me to write big posts and repost pictures from the phone 

From what we saw with the Prigozhin revolt and the aftermath, it looks like the moment some faction has the power to knock off Vladi there won't be a free for all. This is a demobilized state with demobilized politics run on a system of kickbacks and kickups. Until that system is threatened, I would suggest that a change power would look more like a mafia coup than anything else. The guy who was bad for business goes and the new guy is fine if he keeps the money flowing. 
With Prigozhin we literally saw how little of the security apparatus was willing to get involved.  

I question if the drone operator wasn't doing more harm than good. His directions are vague and untimely.
The Ukrainians are holed up near the dead Russian? I think there's probably more than one dead Russian in that field and the one near the Ukrainian trench is probably not the corpse the Russian attackers would seen as they went forward. This presents the attackers with (incorrect) information that they cannot ignore or even question: They just walked past a Ukr position.
 
Same with the direction of "to your left". Left of our line of advance? Left of where my body is proned towards? Left of where I am looking? Left of where I was looking 5 seconds ago? Because that's the time it takes to pass along information. For that matter, left of where any of my fireteam was looking at any point? None of it is usable information and is only likely to wrongfoot the recipient. Note that they eventually face away from the threat! Meanwhile the dipstick drone guy has compass right in his view! There's a reason you are trained to read a compass!
 
And again with his "He's reloading". He's late on making the call, understandable as he needs to interpret the actions he sees from afar before he passes the info along. But that is the problem, he passes it on to his buddy who repeats it into a radio. By the time anyone on the business end even gets the word the Ukr is reloading, the Ukr has reloaded and is ready to work. As a result any Russian acting on this word of warning does his heroics at the absolute very worst moment to do it.
 
If that drone operator used his tablet to download and view porn instead of giving guidance to the attack, the attackers would have had a better chance.

It's not really zero-sum though. Russia not-winning doesn't mean Ukraine isn't losing (and ... my apologies for asking you to parse through multiple negatives there)
In any negotiation there is win-win, win-loss, lose-win, and lose-lose. Right now we seem to be firmly in lose-lose territory, and the ongoing negotiation (all war is negotiation, remember) is over who loses least.
Losing least can easily be framed as a kind of success by way of "yeah that hurt, but you should see the other guy!"
 
Edit: I'm typing on my phone, which sucks. On each axis there's a spectrum which runs from 'win bigly' to 'lose like a republican voter'. The four quadrants - ww lw wl ll - above are just a convenient shorthand for a complex rainbow of possible outcomes.

"You are still Ukraine...you won."   It is that simple. 
And then they can read this: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-russias-unconventional-operations-during-russo-ukrainian-war-february-2022
That is a systematic campaign to erase a nation.  Of everything I have read about this war, that document is the most brutal.  So ya, they won because that is what losing would have looked like.