Fenris

Post says this is a pair of UKR T series tanks doing shoot and scoot.  One is very nearly hit by return fire at the 1:30 mark.  Thankfully they both appear to bug out successfully.
Posting as a link because all these tweets are flagged as restricted.  There's nothing R18+ in this one.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1695494020015726875

UKR TG:
Now, I think, we can make a statement, that a fight for Novoprokopivka has begun. We overran pidors from several positions in the village. Also were taken sevaral VOPs (platoon strongpoints) on the village outskirt 

Re: possible insurgency
1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.
2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayhem what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.
3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.
4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.
5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.
 
Re: how am I doing?
My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.
For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.
But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.
I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.
I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...
Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.
At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then, there was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.
Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.
I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.
Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.

Post says they got behind RU lines and retreating troops then ran into them. Lots of confusion. If you read the thread I get the impression the retreating RU troops didn't realise they were running into a UKR unit that had got in behind them.
 

Post says they got behind RU lines and retreating troops then ran into them. Lots of confusion. If you read the thread I get the impression the retreating RU troops didn't realise they were running into a UKR unit that had got in behind them.
 

Post says they got behind RU lines and retreating troops then ran into them. Lots of confusion. If you read the thread I get the impression the retreating RU troops didn't realise they were running into a UKR unit that had got in behind them.
 

Interesting, looks like UKR has a new wonder weapon
 

More comedy

I'm not a fan of Erdogan but this is nice to see
 

Interesting, looks like UKR has a new wonder weapon
 

More comedy

Interesting, looks like UKR has a new wonder weapon
 

Tarkhankut has two sites - radar complexes Nebo-M + radar Kasta-2 and SAM site with own radars and launchers.
Yesterday with a missile strike was destroyed S-400 launcher as claimed. Today press-secreter of MoD made a statement except this several S-300 launchers were damaged  
After landing of GUR special force on the cape now is claiming they eliminated and wounded about 30 Russion soldiers and took out four speed boats. Nothing about destroyed radars - maybe they really attacked the barrack of radar personnel in the village. No details.
Later GUR chief Budanov made a statement that in result of these two days of attacks Russian SAM battatlion was "deactivated for some time". Looks like were damaged/destroyed some radars or command post, except known video with firewok of launcher. 
UKR military jourmnalist Yuriy Butuisov claims yesterday in first time UKR Neptun missile hit ground target and this was 48Ya6-K1 Podlyot extreme-low altitude radar, using in newest S-300 and S-400 complexes. But Butosov is a fan of hype and often gives unverified information. So, it's hard to say - either were more missiles launched at the site, than GUR showed, and except S-400 TEL this radar was hit, or this is just Butusov's wrong interpretation
Maybe later new videos will come.  

GUR clarified own words about "operation is ongoing". 
We conduct a complex of actions, this is not story of one day. Yesterday we destroyed S-400, today we landed our troops in Mayak village. Operation is ongoing, so no details for now. This is complex work, which shows we can reach Crimea not only with a weapon, but also with troops. Today all tasks were acomplished, our troops withdrew without losses   

I wonder, how our diversion group could land to destroy radar site, if it located from the side of cliffs, where no place to land personnel?
This is typical landscape of Tarkhankut from the south, closesest place to radar site
 
Possible landing zones only on northern part, were the beach and camping and from the west, where lighthouse, village Mayak and barrack of radar personnel. More lileky this could be a raid on barrack. But maybe later some video will appear.

Robotyne is officially liberated. The flag with autograph of Valeriy Zaluzhnyi was raised by soldiers of 47th mech.brigade over the ruined building of school. "Magura" are titans! 
 

We have good National Flag Day indeed - Moscow strike, S-400 hit, Mi-8 story, now Prig's jet downed by Russians %)

India successfully landed a ship on the moon.
Fabulous!  Go India!
Modi will meet with Putin and talk about..................football 😂

Volunteered?  I'm inclined to think UKR simply paid some poor bastard to haul a load of cargo in his truck.  Would the GRU have any scruples paying a russian driver to do that?

All very true. Worth to note that perception matters here. Fact of waging conventional war is viewed differently in big Western nations, smaller Central European (or Eastern European ones) and in turn very differently in Russia. First see it chiefly as a tool or different - often uncofmortable- kind of business; second consider it mortal danger for their very existence (so almost every conflict is existential by nature); while Russians mainly see it as extension of their greatness, and largely don't care if it is not touching them too much in private lives.
Living memory of Great Patriotic War and "we will overcome" mentallity also plays unfortunatelly significant part of muscovite psyche, so western standards cannot be freely applied here. They don't care about war as long as they can afford to go on vacations somewhere once a year (I am not even kidding: right to leasure time, inheritaed after USSR, is considered almost sacred in this society, and hitting it by sanctions would probably break them faster than targeting military complex).
Yup, but video should be viewed here as educational nitpick from "true young heroes" toward "ungrateful pacifistic hipster traitors in large metropolis"; that's why Pegov put it on his channel. Muscovites and especially Peterburgians are naturally considered most savvy and "worldly" populations in this country, so mental tension between them and country folks is quite constant element already for many generations. Previous rulers also often skillfully played on these notions when it suit them.
Also remember folks- constant complaining, blaming others and even quarelling among individuals and groups is much more accepted state of things in Russia than it is in the West, and not necessarly means weakened morale.
Living example of this cultural feature:

Volunteered?  I'm inclined to think UKR simply paid some poor bastard to haul a load of cargo in his truck.  Would the GRU have any scruples paying a russian driver to do that?

More today from ISW re low RU morale and supply.  There's also an interesting paragraph on machinations within the Kremlin.
 
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-21-2023

Volunteered?  I'm inclined to think UKR simply paid some poor bastard to haul a load of cargo in his truck.  Would the GRU have any scruples paying a russian driver to do that?

Some pics said to be relating to the Kerch bridge truck bomb op
 

Another thread with details of failed RU attacks
Full thread - https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1693320448489013587